Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:54PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 8:37PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 327 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect from 10 pm cdt this evening through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kts becoming nw to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 45 kts overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of light rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Tuesday..NW wind to 30 kts increasing to gales to 35 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 50 kts. Waves 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Tuesday night..NW gales to 35 kts decreasing to to 30 kts in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 45 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ543 Expires:201710240415;;303604 FZUS53 KGRB 232027 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 327 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-240415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.85, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 232348
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
648 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017

00z aviation update...

Aviation(00z tafs)
A strong cold front is advancing east across the region this
evening. Along with increasing potential for rain, CIGS and vis
will fall behind the front, with widespread MVFR and occasional
ifr developing at the terminals overnight, and continuing through
most of the day Tuesday. Northwest winds will also become quite
strong heading into Tuesday, with gusts peaking around 35 kt
Tuesday afternoon.

Prev discussion (issued 315 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017)
tonight and Tuesday - forecast confidence... Medium.

A 150+ knot speed MAX will dive south-southeast from
the northern great plains into the mid mississippi valley today,
as troughing digs equatorward into the upper midwest and western
great lakes. As the upper wave approaches, surface low pressure
will rapidly deepen while progressing from northern indiana
towards far northern lower michigan by tonight. Rain showers will
begin pushing back into our area from the west later this
afternoon with chances increasing tonight as forcing for ascent
arrives via jet-level divergence and increasing dcva. The rain
should end from west to east on Tuesday as deep layer troughing
slowly pushes away to our east. A very strong pressure gradient
will ensue on Tuesday as the low deepens over lower michigan.

While there is still some uncertainty in the evolution and
ultimate mixed layer depth, northwesterly wind gusts at least into
the 30 to 45 mph range are expected. With it being a bit too close
for comfort, went ahead and pulled the trigger on a wind
advisory, in collaboration with our neighboring offices. Looks
like a good indoor day for Wednesday given the combination of cool
temperatures, high wind, and rain.

Tuesday night through Thursday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Over the past 24 hours, short term guidance has been varying its
tune in regards to location and strength of isentropic lift warm air
advection event sliding southeast from southern canada. 00z
guidance backed off on strength of this weak system and shifted it
well to the north into southern canada. Only the ECMWF kept the
weak event progressing rapidly southeast across wisconsin late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. 12z GFS has flip-flopped and
is now carrying weak lift across central and northeast wi during
this period with light QPF grazing the northeast cwa. Meanwhile 12z
ecmwf remains consistent with earlier runs in showing vigorous mid-
level short wave moving rapidly southeast across western and
southern wisconsin. NAM solution farther east over eastern
wisconsin, while GFS even farther east over northeast wi into
southern lower mi. Enough weak layer q-vector convergence and
higher rh to warrant returning small pops for rain and snow showers
to the area for about a 6 hour period. Also, impressive burst of
700h potential vorticity advection with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5
degrees.

Low level thermal structure still shows a mix of rain and snow
or all snow may occur with this event during the Wednesday morning
commute. If full potential vorticity is realized and ecmwf
solution turns out correct, then briefly lower visibilities with
-shsn could impact Wednesday morning commute. Too much uncertainty
at this point to include in hwo.

Some moderation in temperature is expected Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of next in a series of amplifying short wave
trofs that will move through the upper midwest and great lakes
around Thursday. Strengthening low pressure will move across
wisconsin later Thursday into Thursday night dragging another
strong cold front through the area. Even colder air will surge
in to finish off the work week. The atmosphere is expected to
be pretty dry so no -shra are expected with the frontal passage.

Extended period...

Thursday night through Monday - forecast confidence... Medium.

Medium range guidance in good agreement on amplifying long wave
trof over the great lakes and upper midwest remaining
nearly station through the weekend on into the following
week. In fact, both GFS and ECMWF show secondary area of
low pressure sagging southward from canada into the great
lakes early in the weekend. This will reinforce the
unseasonably cold conditions expected over the area, and
linger the cold into Monday. 925h temperatures will drop
below zero on Friday and remain in the 0 to 5c range
through the period. A few periods of rain and snow showers are
expected with below freezing nighttime temperatures looking more
likely, pending cloud cover and boundary layer mixing.

Gfs 500h standardized anomalies not as encouraging for next week as
yesterday, with below normal heights now lingering through the first
days of november.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Lower MVFR deck across the east has been a bit
slower to mix out, so kept ceilings lower a bit longer at the
eastern TAF sites. Otherwise look for prevailingVFR conditions this
afternoon, with rain chances increasing this evening. Ceilings late
tonight will drop to at least MVFR, and potentially lower. Haven't
advertised this in the tafs just yet, but further shifts will need
to assess this possibility. Strong and gusty winds will develop
towards Tuesday morning, with surface gusts reaching around 35
knots. A period of low-level wind shear is possible before the
surface winds pick up, but it appears too marginal to include in
most of the tafs just yet. Wet and windy conditions will persist into
Tuesday evening.

Marine...

northwest winds will increase this evening into Tuesday as a
strong low pressure system develops over lower michigan and tracks
north. A small craft advisory is in effect for late tonight, with
a gale warning in effect for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Mariners
should exercise extreme caution during this period.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm cdt Tuesday for wiz046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 9 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 9 am Tuesday to 4 am cdt Wednesday for
lmz643>646.

Update aviation... Boxell
tonight Tuesday and marine... Spm
Tuesday night through Monday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 8 mi75 min NNW 5.1 G 6 50°F 1004.2 hPa (-1.4)46°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 35 mi35 min NW 1 G 1 52°F 1004.7 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi45 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 1003.3 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
S5
SW3
W4
W4
W3
W3
SW2
SW1
W1
NW1
NW1
S2
NW1
W3
NW1
W1
NE3
NE1
--
NE2
NE3
N4
NE2
N3
1 day
ago
S14
G17
S14
G17
S9
S9
S12
S13
S14
S13
S15
S11
S13
S12
G16
S11
G14
S13
S11
G14
S12
S15
NW8
G16
NW7
G15
NW5
G10
NW3
SW2
W3
S4
2 days
ago
S10
S13
S11
S10
S7
G10
S8
S7
S10
S9
S7
G10
S6
G10
S10
S12
S9
S8
S6
G9
S9
S14
S11
S10
G13
S9
S10
S9
S9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI13 mi82 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F46°F86%1004.5 hPa
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI20 mi2.3 hrsENE 310.00 miFair52°F45°F77%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmW3CalmNW3NW3NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoS9S10S9S12S10S10S9S11S7S10S9S9S9S7S6S7NW12
G18
NW11
G21
N6NW6NW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S6S4S9S7S4S9S10S6S8S9S8S8S9S10S11S10S11S12
G19
S13
G20
S12S12S15S12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.