Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 5:41 AM CST (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 12:37AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 333 Am Cst Wed Jan 24 2018
Early this morning..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy.
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts backing S early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Thursday night..SE wind 10 to 15 kts veering S 15 to 25 kts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ543 Expires:201801241715;;918621 FZUS53 KGRB 240933 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 333 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-241715-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, WI
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location: 43.85, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 241111
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
511 am cst Wed jan 24 2018

Update
Looks like the mid level wave moving through is indeed helping to
seed the lower status to produce some flurries. These should clear
the madison area by 8-9 am this morning and the southeast later in
the morning. No accumulation is expected.

Aviation(12z tafs)
MVFR conditions will likely linger into the early evening across
southern wisconsin. There is uncertainty with that and it may end
up clearing sooner, but the pessimistic route seems prudent given
the weak flow and stubborn low level inversion. We are also see an
area of flurries move through. They should clear kmsn by 14-15z
and the southeast tafs by 18z today.

Prev discussion (issued 241 am cst Wed jan 24 2018)
discussion...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Overall, a pretty quiet period. The forecast challenge is mainly
on some less impactful details. The low clouds in place look like
they may get stuck. Clearing has more or less halted in the weak
flow within the surface ridge moving through. The low level
inversion is rather strong and persistent as well. I'll back off
on the clearing and if it does decide to turn more sunny, well
then it's a bonus. A mid level short wave will roll across the
area this morning. It looks like we could get a subtle seeder-
feeder process going resulting in a few flurries for a few hours.

Seeder-feeder is when ice crystals fall from a higher cloud deck,
in this case from the mid level saturation with the wave, to the
lower cloud deck, resulting in snowflakes. We're just looking at
flurries and no accumulation. The increased cloud cover will also
keep temps a few degrees colder.

Skies should remain mostly cloudy tonight.

Thursday and Friday - confidence... Medium
a warming trend this period will be tempered somewhat by the
deeper snowpack across parts of southeast wi. Per coord with klot
have trended some temps down a bit across this deeper snowfield
in the southeast, ESP on Thursday. Mixing will be limited
Thursday but will be more pronounced Friday as a gusty
south southwest wind ramps up.

Friday night through Sunday night - confidence... Medium
a weak cold front moves through Friday night but a stronger one
arrives either Saturday night (gfs) or Sunday (ecmwf). The ecmwf
has trended towards the quicker and drier look of the GFS with
respect to this frontal precip staying to our southeast so will
ride with the dry blended pops. The ECMWF is the outlier with a
stronger wave in the northwest flow for Sunday. GFS is much weaker
and drier. Blended pops favoring the latter with the gem also on
board with the dry look.

Monday and Tuesday - confidence... Medium
there is decent consensus of a fairly pronounced low level
thermal trough settling in for Monday. However this is proggd to
be short lived as a renewed southerly return flow sets up for
Tuesday.

Aviation(06z tafs)... There is a lot of uncertainty with the low
cloud trends during the TAF period. Clearing looks to have slowed
or halted and i'm now more pessimistic about improving conditions.

Winds are weak within the surface ridge moving through, so there
isn't much to help these clouds clear out. Therefore, it looks
like we will stay MVFR through the afternoon across the southeast,
possibly clearing out toward kmsn by mid afternoon. Eventually,
everyone will beVFR tonight. We could see a few flurries from
these low clouds this morning, but no accumulation is expected.

Marine... Small craft advisory conditions are expected Friday into
Friday night due to southerly winds ahead of an approaching area of
low pressure that will track north of lake superior.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Thursday through Tuesday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 8 mi41 min NW 8 G 9.9 19°F 1024.2 hPa (+1.3)14°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 35 mi61 min N 5.1 G 8 22°F 1024 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi41 min NW 6 G 8.9 15°F 1022.7 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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N17
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NE14
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NW2
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G9
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G17
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI13 mi49 minNNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds19°F14°F81%1024.2 hPa
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI20 mi46 minNNW 610.00 miFair17°F12°F80%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13
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NW9NW9NW7N3N3N6NW6NW5NW4N6N6N8N5
1 day agoNE17--NE16
G22
NE16NE18NE15NE18
G24
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NE13N9N10N9N11N6N11
G16
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G22
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G25
N12
G22
2 days ago--CalmSW3--SW4SW4CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE5NE3NE5NE6NE5NE6NE9NE12NE13NE10NE13NE14NE15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.