Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pultneyville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 3:53PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ063 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 118 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Overnight..South winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ063 Expires:201708170915;;505647 FZUS61 KBUF 170518 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 118 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.0 inch high across the lake will gradually drift east overnight. A 29.6 inch low will move near Wisconsin late tonight with its associated warm front moving toward Lake Ontario on Thursday. This low will track north along the Quebec and Ontario border while its associated cold front moves across the lake on Friday. Then a weak 29.9 inch high will ridge across the Appalachian mountains over the weekend. LOZ063>065-170915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pultneyville, NY
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location: 43.86, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170523
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
123 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will provide our region with fantastic weather
through the first half of Thursday. A warm front will then
stubbornly push north across our area late Thursday and Thursday
night... With increasingly widespread showers and thunderstorms
marking its progress. This will be followed by a cold front and
more thunderstorm activity on Friday.

Near term through today
High pressure across the region will slowly drift to our east
overnight, resulting in clear skies and light winds. Good
radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall into
the 50s in most areas, with upper 40s across lewis county. Fog will
be less widespread than last night, but still will develop across
the southern tier overnight, especially in the river valleys and
open fields.

On Thursday... Pleasant conditions during the morning will gradually
give way to increasing clouds as a warm front will approach the
region. Cloud cover will lower and thicken from the southwest
during the day. There could even be some showers and
thunderstorms over the far western counties by the end of the
day... With the unsettled weather further blossoming after
dinnertime. Otherwise... It will be warm with a return of more
humid conditions. MAX temps will generally be in the low to mid
80s.

Short term tonight through Friday night
A warm front will continue to lift north across the region Thursday
night. The associated showers thunderstorm have a ample supply of
moisture with pw of 1.5 to 2.0" thus locally heavy downpours are
possible. Expect a warm muggy night Thursday night with
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

The showers tstms continue into Friday ahead of and along an
approaching cold front. While most of the convection not expected to
be severe, increasing shear could be just enough to allow some of
the stronger storms to produce damaging wind gusts. SPC continues to
outline much of the region in its day 3 outlook. Look for MAX temps
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Weak surface ridging builds across the CWA in the wake of the cold
front with drying slowly taking place with lingering showers
tapering off from west to east Friday night. It will be a few
degrees cooler with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
On Saturday... The guidance suite is in pretty good agreement that
the surface low responsible for the unsettled conditions of the
previous couple of days will bodily lift northeastward across
northern quebec province... While its rather sharp parent upper level
trough digs across the central lower great lakes. The westerly upslope
flow in the wake of the surface low and its trailing cold front will
probably lead to some scattered morning showers across the north
country... With more general lower-end shower chances then arriving
during the afternoon in concert with diurnal heating and the arrival
of the upper level trough cooler air aloft. Otherwise less humid
conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail... With afternoon
highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints largely running
in the lower 60s. Saturday night any showers should largely fade out
with the loss of heating and diurnally-driven instability... While
continued gradual cool dry air advection allows overnight lows to
drop back to more comfortable levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

After that... Sunday and Monday both look to feature quiet and dry
weather as sprawling surface-based ridging builds into our region
from the ohio valley on Sunday... Then only slowly drifts eastward and
off the DELMARVA coastline on Monday. With plenty of attendant dry
air also in place... This will allow for mostly sunny mainly clear
skies... Thereby resulting in near ideal sky conditions for viewing
of Monday's solar eclipse. Otherwise slow but steady warming of our
airmass will allow daytime highs to climb back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s on Sunday and into the mid 80s in many places on Monday...

while dewpoints remain at tolerable levels (around 60 on Sunday and
in the lower 60s on Monday).

As we progress deeper into the new work week... Our weather still
looks to turn more unsettled again for later Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night... When the medium range guidance suggests that the next
upper level trough and associated cold front will move across our
region. Have continued to advertise broadbrush chance pops to cover
the passage of these features... With our area then drying out from
northwest to southeast on Wednesday following the frontal passage.

With warmer and more humid air continuing to advect into our region
out ahead of this system... Expect highs on Tuesday to surge all the
way into the mid to upper 80s while dewpoints climb back into the
mid 60s... Which will make for a rather uncomfortable day. Following
the passage of the cold front... Cooler and less humid air will then
spread back into our region on Wednesday... When daytime highs will
retreat back into the mid and upper 70s.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will drift east across the region overnight with clear
skies. Expect typical river valley fog to develop across the western
southern tier with local ifr, and some of this may impact kjhw for a
few hours.

On Thursday a warm front will approach the region with increasing
and lowering clouds from west to east. Showers will reach western ny
by late afternoon or early evening, then spread east across the rest
of the area as the warm front crosses the region. A few scattered
thunderstorms will also be embedded in the showers. CIGS vsby will
remainVFR most of the time through the evening, although any
heavier showers or thunderstorms will contain brief local MVFR to
ifr conditions.

Outlook...

Friday... MVFR improving toVFR with showers and
thunderstorms exiting during the midday and afternoon.

MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday into Monday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure drifting across the lower great lakes overnight
will keep light winds and minimal waves in place through the
first half Thursday.

As the high pressure exits across new england... A warm front will
approach the region Thursday afternoon. This will set up a light
southeasterly flow with negligible waves remaining in place.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front will
increase in coverage later Thursday afternoon and particularly
Thursday night. Mariners should be wary of the deteriorating
conditions... As some of the thunderstorms may warrant special marine
warnings.

The showers and thunderstorms will persist across the lower great
lakes through at least the first half of Friday when a cold front
will push across the region. These storms could again be rather
strong... Especially on the eastern half of lake ontario and in the
st lawrence valley.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Apffel hitchcock rsh
short term... Levan
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Church rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 17 mi62 min S 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 71°F1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 26 mi52 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 71°F1018.3 hPa (-0.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 43 mi52 min S 6 G 8 66°F 1019 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 44 mi52 min 62°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 52 mi52 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.0)56°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY54 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW5E7NE7NE7NE9N8N7NE6NE9NE7NE7NE6E4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW7SW8SW7SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7W9W7NW8S3N14N5W6SW6W5W4SW3CalmW3SW5W3W3
2 days agoSW4SW3SW5SW4CalmS3SW3S4S4S43SW4W5NE4CalmS9S8S5S4S7SW6SW8SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.