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LOZ063 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 041340 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 940 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will dissipate over the region today. While this feature may produce a few spotty showers, much of the time will be rain free. A wave of low pressure will then move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes overnight through Sunday, bringing a round of widespread rain to the region. The rain will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east Sunday, before ending entirely Sunday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes Monday with a return to dry weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Radar shows some scattered showers east of Lake Ontario and in the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes this morning. These showers are quite sparse in coverage.

The weak trough will wash out today over the eastern Great Lakes.
Lingering mid level moisture will keep plenty of cloud cover in place, but overall the lack of forcing will only support spotty showers at best. Most areas will stay dry, but can't rule out scattered showers this afternoon.

A well defined mid level shortwave will then move from the Ohio Valley this evening northeast across the eastern Great Lakes overnight, generally following the path left by the remnants of the trough that washes out over the area today. A 40+ knot southerly low level jet ahead of the trough will bring a period of enhanced convergence and low level moisture transport overnight. This will combine with forcing from the shortwave to produce a fairly widespread area of rain moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Low stratus may intersect some of the higher hills overnight through Sunday morning, resulting in patchy fog across higher terrain.

Sunday, the mid level trough and associated forcing and deep moisture will continue to move slowly northeast. Widespread rain early in the day will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east. The widespread rain should end in Western NY fairly early in the day, while it will continue most, if not all day east of Lake Ontario.

While the widespread rain will end across Western NY, an upstream cold front will move into the far western end of the state by late afternoon. This will combine with modest diurnal instability and lake breeze convergence zones to support a few more scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. Enough instability may develop to support a few thunderstorms as well across Western NY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The synoptic set up heading into Sunday night will feature a upper level trough just north of the Great Lakes. The axis of this trough will then pivot across the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec by Monday morning. A potent shortwave diving south into the trough's base Monday will cause the longwave trough to rotate east into the Canadian Maritimes Monday night.

Down at the surface, low pressure centered over eastern Quebec will continue to track northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, dragging its associated surface cold front across the region Sunday night.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure across the central Great Lakes will begin to advect east towards the eastern Great Lakes. Rain showers ahead of the front will then finish crossing from west to east Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will continue to advect east across the area Monday and Monday night, resulting in a period of dry weather. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast throughout the day, however a disturbance passing east across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid- Atlantic will support clouds to linger across the New York/Pennsylvania state line.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A broad mid and upper level low over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains Tuesday will gradually drift east across the northern half of the contiguous United States throughout the remainder of the work week. The track and progression of this low continues to have timing and placement differences which also impacts the strength, timing and placement of shortwave disturbances rotating through this feature. This being said forecast confidence continues to remain low.

Overall at the time of this update, expect this system to result in unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and some thunderstorms throughout the Wednesday through Friday timeframe.
This being said the whole timeframe will not be a wash out, and a few breaks in shower activity will be likely.

Now regarding temperatures for the end of the week, expect highs to continue to average between 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will prevail for the bulk of the area, although some MVFR/IFR low stratus will continue across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier through mid to late morning. There will continue to be a few spotty showers today, but much of the time will be rain free as the trough washes out overhead. VFR will prevail with a wealth of mid level clouds.

Another wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will bring a period of fairly widespread rain spreading from southwest to northeast across the area from late evening through the overnight.
CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR/IFR shortly after the rain begins. Any pockets of moderate rain will bring short term VSBY restrictions, and the low stratus may intersect some of the higher hilltops overnight through Sunday morning with some patchy fog/mountain obscuration across the high terrain. A 40+ knot low level jet will also produce some low level wind shear overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in the morning in rain. Improving to mainly VFR from west to east in the afternoon and evening as the rain tapers off. Chance of a few widely scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening across Western NY.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Moderate southeast winds today through Sunday morning will produce choppy conditions on the lakes, mainly in the offshore and Canadian waters given the largely offshore wind component. Winds will then become southwest and decrease from west to east Sunday as a weak trough moves across the eastern Great Lakes.

Generally light winds are then expected Monday through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place across the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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