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LOZ063 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 171417 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1017 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area today and tonight bringing a soaking rainfall to much of the region along with the chance for a few thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into Saturday before high pressure then builds across the area Sunday bringing a dry finish to the weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue for the end of the work week into this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds across western and north central NY this morning. Warm this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the lake plains with temperatures in the low 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline south of Buffalo, and across the Watertown area. Regional radar shows showers immediately upstream from western NY this morning.
Increasing clouds and showers will move into western NY into this afternoon.

After a dry start to the day, a trough of low pressure to our west will move into far western NY later this morning, then slowly track east across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes this afternoon into this evening. Meanwhile, mid and upper level ridge axis will shift just to our east while amplifying a bit, and stubborn surface high pressure remains wedged in across New England. This setup will lead to a slowing of the system's eastward progression and eventually also a weakening of the system as it tries to push into eastern NY this evening into tonight as it runs into the aforementioned high pressure ridged across New England. In terms of sensible weather, this will translate to a band of showers with some embedded thunder slowly moving from west to east across areas south of Lake Ontario this afternoon into this evening. Better instability remains across western NY, especially with the timing being during the hours of daytime heating. This will lead to some enhanced convection with the chance for thunderstorms that could contain some locally heavy downpours across western NY. Convection will weaken as it moves toward the eastern Lake Ontario this evening as daytime instability wanes and the system encounters high pressure anchored to the east.
The trough will continue to linger overnight with chances for some scattered light showers and possibly and rumble of thunder, mainly from the Genesee Valley eastward.

QPF amounts continues to trend upward across western NY owed to the slowing down of the system and favorable diurnal timing. Highest rainfall totals today through tonight will be across areas from the Genesee Valley westward, where basin average rainfall looks to now average from around one half to three quarters of an inch, with localized higher amounts within any areas of embedded convection.
Much lower amounts east of the Genesee Valley with a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

Highs today will remain above normal with mainly low to mid 70s expected, upper 60s higher terrain. Lows tonight mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Residual effects from the slow departing mid-level shortwave in concert with diurnal heating will allow for a few showers to blossom on Saturday. The best potential for showers will be found across the S. Tier, and possibly along any lake breeze boundary. High temperatures Saturday will be found in the low to mid 70s.

High pressure aloft (500mb) will begin to amplify across the region beginning Saturday evening with dry weather expected overnight.

High pressure will continue to dominate the rest of this time frame with dry weather Sunday through Monday night.

Temperatures will climb well above normal with highs firmly in the mid to upper 70s Sunday, then upper 70s to low-mid 80s Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure looks like it will maintain dry weather for most locales on Tuesday
However
an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't ruled out. This will all depend on the trough approaching from the west, or advertised shortwave energy rippling along the western edge of the mid-level ridge. Have low end chance PoPs for now across the Southern Tier. Mild day is on tap with highs in the upper 70s to low-mid 80s.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms looks on tap for Wednesday through Thursday. This will come as the trough and associated cold front arrives across the region. Still lots of uncertainty this far out with timing issues but unsettle weather looks like it will return
Additionally
it appears that it will usher in some cooler temperatures or back to near normal atleast for late May.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Besides some transient MVFR ceilings a KJHW, VFR flight conditons and dry weather in place this morning, before conditions start to deteriorate from west to east from later this morning on.

A trough of low pressure off to the west will move into the region today with worsening conditions for the second half of the day into the evening. Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected to hold on through at least midday with thickening and lowering mid level decks through the morning hours in advance of the approaching system. Showers and associated MVFR CIGS will move into the western Southern Tier (KJHW) early to mid afternoon, then spread northeast across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) mid to late afternoon, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late afternoon/early evening. IFR CIGS are then expected to develop across the western Southern Tier (KJHW) late afternoon/early evening, then into the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) early evening, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late evening. Meanwhile, a few showers may make it into the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) by late in day into the evening hours with associated low VFR CIGS.

MVFR/IFR VSBY will also be possible within any heavier convection/ thunderstorms across areas south of Lake Ontario this afternoon/evening.

Expect just scattered light showers overnight, however IFR/LIFR CIGS will continue through the overnight hours from the Genesee Valley west (KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW), with IFR/MVFR CIGS Finger Lakes to mainly low VFR CIGS toward the North Country (KART). Patchy fog will also be possible.

Outlook...

Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue the generally light winds through this weekend into the start of next week. A light offshore southeasterly flow will increase some today as a weak trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak system, winds will remain light through Tuesday. The next system will be a stronger cold front that will cross the Lake toward mid week bringing the next notable increase in winds and waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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