Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brunswick, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:53PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 307 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain and snow in the morning. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 307 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will retreat well offshore tonight. A cold front approaches from the west on Thursday before stalling. Low pressure will track north along the front near new england on Friday, before slowly exiting through the canadian maritimes this weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brunswick, ME
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location: 43.91, -69.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 202031
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
431 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
An offshore high will circulate mild air into the region through
Thursday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Thursday, but it will stall just as it arrives in northern new
england. Low pressure moving up from the carolinas will track
north to the gulf of maine on Friday, spreading rain across new
hampshire and maine, with snow and mixed precipitation in the
higher terrain. While the low moves off to the northeast on
Saturday, some lingering snow and rain showers are likely. High
pressure builds by to our south on Sunday. A cold front will
drop south across the area Monday.

Near term through tonight
At 18z a 1031 millibar high was centered over the gulf of
maine. GOES imagery showed some high and patchy mid cloud
spilling into the area at moment otherwise a mainly sunny day
with temperatures rebounding into the 40s and even a few low 50s
under the strong march sunshine. For tonight... Another mainly
clear night under ridging. I undercut machine guidance a bit for
temperatures tonight as the airmass remains dry with dewpoints
in the teens and lower 20s.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Clouds increase and lower during the day as the high retreats
further offshore and with approach of northern and southern
stream disturbances. Temperatures should warm into the 40s on
the southerly flow by afternoon. Light precipitation should
arrive over the southwest new hampshire and the connecticut
valley during the afternoon. All but the high terrain should be
in the form of rain initially. Closer to the coast... The onshore
flow may generate some patchy drizzle as the afternoon
progresses. Northern southern stream phasing begins Thursday
night with the coastal low near the DELMARVA strengthening as
it moves into southern new england by dawn. Increasing onshore
flow, and upslope flow with approaching 50 knot low level jet
allows precipitation to quickly increase in coverage and become heavy
at times towards morning. Across the higher terrain as well as
the mountains and foothills we should see precipitation mainly
as snow and sleet for a time. Over the interior adjacent to our
higher terrain and well away from the coast... The column should
cool as the heavier precipitation arrives with a brief transition
to sleet wet snow and patchy light freezing rain. Lows will be
in the 30s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
***significant early spring storm to end the week***
for starters we are approaching high confidence is significant
impacts from this system... But confidence is lower in exactly
what those impacts will be due to complex storm evolution. We
are looking at no less than three important S WV trofs that are
forecast to phase and lead to rapid cyclogenesis off the east
coast. Two will phase tonight over the oh valley... And both look
fairly impressive on WV at this hour. A third S WV trof over the
arctic will dive swd as part of an anticyclonic wave breaking
event and eventually phase with the previous two S wvs off cape
cod. That is when the most rapid deepening is forecast to occur.

Complicating this all is an area of convection off the carolina
coast that is forecast to drift inland tonight. Any low level pv
anomaly associated with that feature may act to enhance cyclonic
flow in the developing system.

Ensemble sensitivity is showing a more coherent pattern
starting to show up by 21.00z and possibly as late as 21.12z.

Subtle changes are still possible even at this range... Given the
largest amount of spread was explained by a position error
dipole. The track of this storm will determine just how much
cold air can linger across the interior... And ultimately
snowfall amounts in the mtns. A closer track could bring more
rain and warmer temps to the mtns and cause more melt and run
off into frozen rivers... Exacerbating the flood threat. Given
those uncertainties I have declined to issue any watches for
snow or flooding... But both headline threats are possible. Light
to moderate snow is possible on the front side of the system as
things currently stand using a multi-model blend... But
significant upslope snow is expected on the backside as well.

Quite likely the upslope will be heavier than the lead waa
snowfall. Above about 2500-3000 ft the opposite may be true. The
warmest air looks to be in the lower levels... And so above that
a near-freezing... Heavy snowfall is possible.

Low pressure is forecast to get down into the 970s central
pressure which will set up a strong pressure gradient across the
area as it moves away. Additionally CAA will help to steepen low
level lapse rates and more efficiently mix down stronger winds
aloft. There is some potential for wind gusts approaching 40 to
50 mph especially during the day sat.

With active wx at the beginning of the period... I focused the
attention there and stayed close the multi-model consensus after
sat.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through 12z Fri ...VFR. Areas of MVFR developing
across the connecticut valley aft 18z Thu in -ra with -sn psb
across the higher terrain. MVFR overspreads the remainder of the
region btw 00z and 06z Fri with areas of ifr. A mix of
sn sleet -fzra expected across the mountains and foothills with
mainly ra elsewhere. Easterly sfc wind gusting to 30 kt aft 06z
fri at coastal terminal sites.

Long term... Areas of ifr conditions will linger into fri
afternoon despite dry slot moving in overhead. Gradually as
caa starts CIGS will begin to lift and scatter out S of the
mtns. Areas of MVFR CIGS and ifr in shsn will continue into sat
n of the mtns. Wind gusts around 30kt are also possible
especially on Sat as CAA is the strongest.

Marine
Short term through Thursday night ... Onshore flow gradually
strengthens Thursday with SCA conditions arriving Thursday
night. Strong sca's expected towards Friday morning with
potential for gales.

Long term... Another round of gale force winds is likely late fri
into Sat as winds turn off shore. CAA should efficiently mix
strong winds aloft down... And gales should continue into the
evening Sat before gradually diminishing overnight.

Tides coastal flooding
We are entering a period of high astronomical tides later this
week, just as low pressure will be moving into the gulf of
maine. There are currently 3 tides worth watching: Thursday
midday, Thursday night, and Friday afternoon. Each tide
surpasses 11 feet at portland not including any surge.

For Thursday we will be seeing a south to southeast wind which
could bring in a minor surge of generally less than a foot and
some building wave heights. Beach erosion and splashover will be
a possibility then.

For midnight Thursday night we should see a bit more of a surge
building up on an easterly wind with wave heights increasing as
well. Minor coastal flooding is possible then.

For Friday afternoon the low will be somewhere near the maine
coastline, though there are still some model differences in
track and timing. With multiple tides in an onshore flow, the
low atmospheric pressure expected, and the majority of models
still favoring an onshore wind for this tide, expect that we
will have at least a residual surge to deal with here. This
could perhaps be the most significant tide and the most likely
to see minor or even moderate coastal flooding.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
for anz150>154.

Near term... Schwibs
short term... Schwibs
long term... Legro
tides coastal flooding... Schwibs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 23 mi52 min 40°F 38°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 28 mi62 min S 12 G 14 38°F 38°F2 ft1025.8 hPa (-1.6)29°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi108 min S 12 G 16 38°F 37°F3 ft1025.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME15 mi59 minVar 610.00 miFair41°F26°F55%1026.3 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi56 minSSE 10 G 1510.00 miFair41°F23°F49%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S5SW66S10
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1 day ago54CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm645W6W75
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CalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm65--W6--W75SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Maine
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Brunswick
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Wed -- 01:27 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:47 PM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:04 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.14.24.343.32.51.50.6-0-0.4-0.30.92.84.34.74.53.93210.1-0.4-0.7-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:02 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.10.90.3-0.4-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.61.11.21.110.5-0.2-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.