Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bath, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:09PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 631 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ100 631 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Warm front will lift across the coastal waters early this morning. Generally southwest flow is expected through the day Tuesday...increasing throughout the day. Another cold front will approach the waters Wednesday...with rain likely during the first half of the day. The cold front crosses the waters during the afternoon...with increasing and gusty northwest flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bath, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 211444
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
944 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A warm southwest flow develops today ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move across the region Wednesday
followed by another colder air mass. Wednesday scattered rain
or snow showers changing to snow showers are expected in the
mountains and rain showers elsewhere. Cold high pressure returns
for Thursday and Friday with fair and cold weather. High
pressure moves off the coast Saturday allowing a warmer return
flow to develop ahead of another approaching cold front that
will arrive on Saturday night. An upper trough of low pressure
settles over the region Sunday with unsettled weather and cold
temperatures.

Near term tonight
945am update...

have made a few minor adjustments to temperatures based on
latest observations. Morning sounding shows a very steep
inversion which will mix out fairly easily under a clear sky.

With warm advection today, temperatures likely warm into the low
to mid 50s.

630am update...

adjusted temps down a few degrees in southern nh... Where clear
skies and light winds have allowed temps to bottom out in the
20s to near freezing. Otherwise... No major changes.

Original discussion...

a warm front will lift thru the forecast area this morning.

Based on cloud cover... The mid level front is more or less
halfway thru the forecast area at this time. That is making the
hourly temp trends a bit of a bear... As clear skies and light
winds on either side of the cloud band are cooling... But beneath
the band temps are rising slightly. In general most locations
have reached their low temps for the night... Except for SRN nh
where clouds early in the night kept readings on the milder
side. Readings there are now falling as skies clear out behind
the front.

Sw flow aloft will help bring in warmer temps. Readings are
expected to climb thru the 40s for most areas... And settle into
the low to mid 50s. Slightly cooler readings are expected in nrn
nh... And closer to 40 thru the WRN me mtns.

Short term tonight and Wednesday
Quiet night on tap as a cold front approaches new england from
the w. In SW flow temps will slowly settle towards
freezing... Especially in the sheltered NRN valleys. Precip along
the front will begin to encroach on WRN nh around daybreak.

Temps... Especially across NRN zones... May be initially cold
enough for snow showers. If surface cold front can arrive fast
enough... Precip may go straight over to snow N of the notches.

Regardless... Change over should occur pretty quickly in the n.

It looks like whatever low level inversion that develops
overnight will be erased fairly quickly as the front arrives.

For that reason I expect ptypes to be driven by surface temps.

That is if there is even widespread precip from the cold front s
of the mtns. What is more likely to produce rainfall is moisture
streaming nwd along the coast ahead of the front. Sly flow
around the periphery of atlantic high pressure and wly flow
developing inland will produce a nice area of sloped
frontogenesis from long island thru downeast me. With deep
enough moisture this is enough forcing to warrant likely pop
along the coast. This frontogenesis develops close to 12z... And
lifts newd by early afternoon as the front crosses the rest of
the forecast area.

Behind the front upslope snow showers will linger in the
mtns... Though forecast froude numbers near 1 look to keep the
bulk of precip near and NW of the peaks.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The outlook period will be dominated by a general carving out of
a broad long wave trof position in the east with ridging across
the west central us. A fast flow aloft will allow several
short wave trofs to move through this flow which will mean
several fast moving changes in air masses over the next 5 days
with a much colder air mass to become more entrenched by later
in the weekend as the upper trof becomes more amplified over the
northeastern us.

Breaking it down - high pressure settles over the region
Thursday and Friday with a return to colder temperatures and
dry conditions. By Sat the low and mid level flow briefly
becomes southwest allowing a warmer transport of air. This will
be brief but allow for a mild day Sat as another trof
approaches from the west with an associated cold front. That
cold front moves through the region Sat night producing
scattered showers changing to snow showers in the mountains with
just scattered rain showers elsewhere. Sunday the models are
suggesting an amplifying upper trof over new england which
would provide some unsettled conditions and combined with strong
cold air advection, most of the ptype would be in the frozen
category. Considering the system will be moisture starved only
light amounts of QPF are expected with the upper trof on Sunday.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term... Some scattered MVFR CIGS possible this
morning... Especially in the mtns... As a warm front lifts across
the forecast area. Light surface winds and stronger wly flow
near the canadian border will allow for some marginal llws
conditions at hie through today.VFR conditions expected today
at all terminals... With gusty SW flow developing... Though gusts
should remain at or below 20 kts. Increasing SW flow aloft may
bring more widespread llws conditions to the forecast
area... Though confidence was too low to include in the most
recent set of tafs. 12z sounding will help inform that
decision... As it will provide a gauge as to how model guidance
is handling low level wind speeds. Cold front approaching
wed... And will spread showers across the area. Some shsn are
possible in the mtns... But I expect all terminals to see shra
during the first part of the day. Best chance for MVFR
conditions will be near the coast... And NW of the mtns. Colder
air filtering into the region in the afternoon will allow the
threat for some upslope shsn at hie and local ifr conditions.

Long term... MainlyVFR conditions through sat.

Marine
Short term... Yet another lull in the winds this morning... As a
warm front lifts across the waters. SW flow will increase thru
the day... And SCA conditions are expected to develop mid morning
to early afternoon. Winds decrease in the bays this
evening... And late tonight outside the bays... Though seas may
linger above 5 ft for a time. I have extended the SCA for the
outer waters... And issued a separate SCA for the bays. Ahead of
the approaching cold front wed... Moisture will be drawn in
towards the coast. Some light rain is likely for the waters
during the first part of the day. CAA and gusty NW flow picks up
behind the front for Wed afternoon.

Long term... Nw flow with gusty winds may provide SCA conditions
wed night. Thu through Fri high pres settles over the waters with
light winds. Sat an increasing SW flow ahead of another
approaching cold front may require a sca.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz151-
153.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for anz150-152-
154.

Near term update... Kimble
short term... Legro
long term... Marine


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 28 mi99 min SSW 19 G 25 47°F 51°F5 ft1016.2 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi43 min 47°F 47°F1015.7 hPa (-2.7)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 32 mi53 min SSW 21 G 25 46°F 49°F4 ft1015.4 hPa (-2.9)33°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 44 mi99 min SSW 18 G 23 48°F 50°F3 ft1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME6 mi50 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair48°F34°F58%1016 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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6633NW36CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmS12
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1 day agoSW10
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2 days ago3SW63CalmCalmE3S5CalmCalm45S55S7S7W35S7S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bath, Kennebec River, Maine
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Bath
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Tue -- 01:34 AM EST     6.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:34 PM EST     6.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.36.16.15.64.431.70.90.81.42.74.45.86.66.76.14.93.41.80.70.20.41.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:03 AM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:10 PM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:26 PM EST     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.80.80.70.60.1-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.30.70.90.80.70.60.2-0.4-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.