Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bath, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:16 PM EDT (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 302 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 302 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A high pressure ridge will build into the waters this evening with winds and waves subsiding. This high will move quickly east allowing another strong cold front to move through the waters on Wednesday afternoon with westerly winds strengthening and then shifting northwesterly before strengthening further Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will arrive from the west during the day Thursday and Thursday night with winds and waves gradually subsiding. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bath, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 161738 aad
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
138 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds into the area from the west today allowing
clearing skies with brisk winds. Another cold front will move
through late Wednesday, bringing some of the coldest air of the
season to the region. Temperatures on Thursday will only climb
into the 30s to mid 40s during the day for highs. Thursday night
lows will fall well into the 20s, with some teens being
recorded over the mountains.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
135 pm update: updated aviation section below. Issued gale watch
for Wednesday Wednesday night.

1230 pm update: dropped the remainder of the wind advisory given
noon time observations with only very minor tweaks to
temperatures dewpoints needed as well.

1015 am update: removed the majority of the wind advisory based
on mid morning observations showing that winds have generally
fallen below 30kts. Left northern oxford franklin and central
somerset given a few gusts to 40kts still in recent
observations... Although these will come down no later than the
2pm expiration. Elsewhere... Boosted temperatures a bit given
how temperatures observations are lining up with short term
statistical guidance. No other significant changes this hour as
high pressure ridge builds towards us from the west.

655 am update: the strong gusty winds will continue through the
morning with the strongest winds in the higher terrain. Skies
have cleared nicely in all downsloping areas while clouds linger
in the mountains. Have input the latest mesonet data and
forecast continues on track.

Previous discussion:
the cold front has exited offshore early this morning taking
with it all the accompanying showers. Gusty west winds are in
its wake due to a rather tight surface pres gradient coupled
with the strong west flow aloft. The combination of the gradient
winds and CAA will allow winds to be gusty through the morning
before diminishing in the afternoon. Skies should clear out
nicely this morning as a very dry air mass moves across the
region. Downsloping areas will clear out first. Temps today will
range from the 40s in the mountains to mid 50s along the coastal
plain.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight and Wednesday some clouds will spread back into the area
as a cyclonic flow slowly develops with very weak short waves
embedded in the fast moving westerly flow aloft. Scattered rain
or snow showers can be expected in the mountains while elsewhere
conditions should remain dry. A strong cold front moves through
the area later Wednesday but with the lack of any moisture there
will be very little in the way of any showers expected. Temps
will once again range from the mid 40s to mid 50s derived from
the blend of models.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The extended will continue the trend of ridge building across
wrn north america... Which means trofing across the ERN conus.

Wed night could almost be a carbon copy of today... With a strong
cold front and gusty winds set to cross the area. Model guidance
however is in agreement that the trof will be more
anomalous... In the -2 to -3 standard deviation range... And that
the trailing air mass will be colder. First... Temps are
generally a blend of a mixed down approach and raw 2 m temps
from model guidance... Given the well mixed boundary layer after
the frontal passage. With h8 temps approaching -10c... Mixed down
temps are generally in the 30s for the mtns and low to mid 40s
as you move towards the coast. Second... Winds will become gusty
once again behind the front. While the core of the winds does
not look as strong or as low in the column as this
morning... There is around 40 kts at h8. We should be able to mix
down at least 30 kt gusts... And so I have bumped wind gusts up
from the multi-model consensus in the Thu morning and afternoon
time periods. Finally with the main trof passage there could be
some light precip. Wly flow should help with some downslope
drying SE of the mtns... But along and upstream will be aided by
orographic lift. Any trapped low level moisture will be wrung
out and given the very cold air mass arriving after the
front... Fall in the form of snow after some initial rain
showers. Forecast froude numbers look high... Which makes sense
in the CAA regime and well mixed environment... So some snow
showers will likely cross the ridgelines and propagate
downstream. The higher elevations check a lot of boxes for an
upslope snow event... Given the cyclonic flow... Low level
moisture... And cold temps aloft supporting efficient snow
growth. So I have at least light accumulations in the lower
elevations of the north county... With higher amounts in the
mtns.

Beyond the end of the work week the extended looks to remain a
series of quick moving S WV trofs and reinforcing cold shots.

Mean trofing over the ern CONUS will support temps at or below
normal thru the period and thru next week. Notably... With
plenty of colder than normal air in place and the positive pna
pattern supporting NRN stream S wvs potentially interacting with
the subtropics... The pattern is ripe for east coast
cyclogenesis. Perhaps significant cyclogenesis. And if we are
going to dig a little deeper... ECMWF eps individual members are
supporting low pressure late next week... And roughly 1 in 5
members has the first snowfall of the season for locations in
nrn new england. Food for thought.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Short term...

summary: high pressure builds into the region tonight with a
fast moving cold front arriving Wednesday afternoon... And moving
south of the region Wednesday night.

Restrictions: expectVFR conditions to continue through Wednesday
night. Could see some isolated restrictions in shra late Wednesday
at hie leb... And possibly aug... But not likely south and east of
this.

Winds: northwesterly winds will continue to gradually weaken through
this evening and tonight as high pressure arrives from the west. On
Wednesday... Westerly winds strengthen to 15g25kts ahead of the cold
front before shifting northwesterly Wednesday night and continuing
15g25kts through the night.

Llws: no llws expected through the period as the low levels remain
well-mixed given the strong wind field.

Lightning: no lightning expected through Wednesday night.

Long term... Strong northwesterly winds continue on Thursday
before high pressure builds in Thursday night.VFR should
continue through the Thursday-Friday period with showers
bringing the potential for restrictions Saturday... Especially at
leb and hie.

Marine
Short term... Gale warning continues for today across all marine
areas in the wake of a cold front that exits to the east of the
waters this morning.

Long term... Another strong cold front will cross the waters wed
night. Wly winds behind the front will likely bring gale force
gusts to all waters for a period into thu. Winds and seas
gradually diminish into the weekend... But continued offshore
flow may keep seas around 5 ft outside of the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz150>154.

Near term... Arnott
aviation... Arnott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 28 mi73 min W 16 G 19 53°F 55°F5 ft1010.9 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi35 min 59°F 56°F1012.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 32 mi27 min W 18 G 21 54°F 55°F2 ft1012.4 hPa (-1.1)31°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 44 mi73 min WNW 16 G 21 52°F 56°F2 ft1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME6 mi24 minVar 6 G 1710.00 miFair55°F28°F37%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS8SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S7S8SW74--
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW7--W75SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Bath, Kennebec River, Maine (2)
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Bath
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Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     6.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81.62.94.25.25.75.653.92.81.91.41.423.14.55.56.16.15.54.53.22

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.64 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.40.70.70.60.60.4-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.2-00.30.60.70.60.60.50-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.