Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:39PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:28 AM EST (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 317 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. A chance of snow.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow.
Tue..NE winds up to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of sleet in the morning. Rain.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 317 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front drops south across the waters today. It will lift back north as a warm front tonight. Low pressure tracks east along this front near or just inland of the maine coastline on Tuesday with a cold front following in its wake. High pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 221155
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
655 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will drop south through northern new england today
with colder temperatures returning. Some light snow is expected
as well, with the front lifting back north as a warm front
tonight and Tuesday. As it does so, expect a period of freezing
rain for most areas before temperatures warm. As the low moves
away Tuesday evening a cold front will move across the area from
west to east with colder temperatures expected Wednesday through
Friday.

Near term today
7am update...

colder air is moving in from the northeast this morning with
some light snow falling behind it. Some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle has been observed in far southern new hampshire
and southwest maine. As cold air continues to move in, expect
precipitation type to favor snow as the day GOES on, with some
light accumulations possible.

Original discussion...

a cold front is moving south through the area this morning with
some light snow falling along and just behind this front across
northern new hampshire and central maine. Further south, some
light warm advection precipitation has moved into southern new
england. Expect the cold front to continue moving south and into
southern new england today with temperatures falling behind it.

There exists a pretty strong temperature gradient across this
boundary in northern maine and quebec, and some models even show
temperatures falling into the teens this afternoon across much
of western maine. Have taken this into account with the
temperature forecast today, but did not go quite that extreme.

Meanwhile, light warm advection snowfall should continue on and
off across the area today with intensity picking up just a bit
this afternoon. An inch, maybe two inches, of snow is possible
with this.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
More organized area of warm advection snowfall expected to move
north through the area tonight as the front tries to lift back
north as a warm front. Cold air damming will hold in tough at
the surface, so the surface front should get hung up near the
new hampshire massachusetts border while the front aloft lifts
northward. The majority of the precipitation should fall north
of this aloft front primarily in the form of snow, with
temperatures aloft warming behind the front as the steadier
precipitation briefly ends. Could see some light freezing
drizzle or freezing rain within the cold air dammed area by
morning once the snow has ended.

Primary area of low pressure is moving through the saint
lawrence valley on Tuesday, but expect secondary low pressure to
form along the stalled surface warm front and move east during
the day spreading another round of steadier precipitation across
the area. While some additional snow is possible in the
northern parts of the forecast area, most of the area will see
this fall as freezing rain or rain depending on ground level
temperatures.

Models continue to struggle a bit with this cold air damming,
but some of the higher resolution models are more successful in
showing this. Confidence is high that the cold air damming will
occur as the low level easterly flow north of the warm front
will keep the cold air shoved in place east of the mountains.

There is some doubt as to what the temperature will be within
the dammed area, but observed dewpoints within the cold air mass
over northern maine and southern quebec this morning are near
zero, so there should be enough cold dry air to support
temperatures below freezing as the heavier precipitation arrives
Tuesday morning. However, as the rain freezes it releases heat
and will allow low level temperatures to warm fairly quickly up
to around the freezing mark within the dammed area. Meanwhile,
the surface warm front will lift north into southern new
hampshire fairly early in the morning and push onshore of the
maine coastline as well with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
behind it. To the west of the mountains, downsloping should
allow the temperature to warm above freezing. It is the area
from conway to skowhegan that will have the greatest threat of
freezing rain, though we do expect the ice to have difficulty
sticking to roads and trees after the overnight snowfall,
instead forming a crust on top of the snow and icing any cleared
areas.

Winter weather advisories have been issued for the entire
forecast area, with the timing extending until noon for western,
central, and southern new hampshire as well as the maine
coastline as temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by
then. Further inland the advisories continue until 6 pm as the
cold air damming will keep the threat for freezing rain in these
areas longer. Further north there will be greater snowfall
totals including the possibility of more than 6 inches total,
however confidence is low on seeing widespread 6+ inches and
thus a warning has not been issued.

As low pressure moves east across the area it will pull a cold
front across along with it. While temperatures behind the front
do fall, the areas that were dammed ahead of the front will
actually see the temperature warm a bit behind the front before
cooling later in the night. The majority of the precipitation
will fall along and ahead of the front while some lingering
showers (becoming snow showers) are possible behind the
departing low Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Models all agree on arctic high pressure building southeast
across the region Wed through Fri and becoming centered over new
england by Fri night. Northwest winds will be gusty Wed and thu
but diminish on fri. A return to much colder temps will occur
for this time period. In the mountains widely scattered snow
showers are possible while elsewhere dry conditions are
expected. On Saturday, in response to a digging long wave trof
over the upper midwest, the arctic ridge of high pressure moves
well off the coast allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop
at the surface as well as aloft. Mixed precipitation will move
into the region Sat night and into Sun as the base of the upper
trof progresses east. A cold front will arrive sometime Sunday.

Generally accepted the superblend temps pops for the outlook
period.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Short term... Expect ceilings to lower as the day GOES on with
some light snow possible at all airports. Conditions gradually
become ifr by tonight as precipitation becomes heavier and
ceilings lower. Expect a period of freezing rain especially east
of the mountains early on Tuesday, with temperatures warming
above freezing in southern new hampshire and coastal maine
during the morning. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday
evening and should help end the prolonged ifr conditions with
the exceptions of the areas north of the mountains.

Long term...VFR conditions Wed through Fri except briefly MVFR
conditions in the mountains in any snow showers.

Marine
Short term... A cold front drops south across the waters tonight
with a northeast wind developing behind it. This front lifts
back north as a warm front tonight into Tuesday with low
pressure moving east along it. Expect a southerly gale on
Tuesday as the low pressure moves along the front and drags a
cold front eastward along with it.

Long term... SCA conditions are expected Wed through Fri due to a
strong northwest flow as arctic high pressure builds southeast
across the waters.

Hydrology
A flood watch is in effect for the southern half of new
hampshire as well as the coastal plain of maine. These areas are
expected to get significant liquid precipitation during the day
on Tuesday which may cause ice movement and possible ice jams on
area rivers. This could lead to minor flooding especially near
areas affected by ice jams.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Flood watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for mez012-018>028.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est
Tuesday for mez007>009-012>014-018>022.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est
Tuesday for mez023>028.

Nh... Flood watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for nhz003>015.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est
Tuesday for nhz001-002-004-006.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est
Tuesday for nhz003-005-007>015.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon to 11 pm est Tuesday for anz153.

Gale warning from noon to 11 pm est Tuesday for anz150>152-154.

Near term... Kimble
short term... Kimble
long term... Marine


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi40 min 33°F 34°F1025.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi38 min ENE 21 G 23 36°F 40°F4 ft1024.5 hPa (+1.8)30°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi84 min ENE 19 G 23 35°F 4 ft1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi35 minENE 510.00 miOvercast30°F19°F66%1026.8 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi32 minNE 510.00 miOvercast30°F21°F69%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW443W6W565NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE64NE4NE5
1 day agoSW11
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SW3SW8SW5SW6S4CalmE34CalmW55SW55W5W3CalmCalmW3W4W3W5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3434CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3S3SW4SW5SW7SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Brunswick
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:46 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.212.43.53.73.53.22.621.30.70.40.312.23.43.93.73.42.82.11.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:59 AM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:15 PM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.40.80.90.80.60.40.1-0.4-0.8-0.7-0.3-00.30.60.90.80.60.30.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.