Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 4:59 AM   Moonset 7:51 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KGYX 070259 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1059 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into the area this tonight, bringing a tranquil evening and Tuesday along with warm daytime temperatures. Widespread showers move in by the end of the day on Wednesday with some thunder possible across western NH Wednesday evening. Another system follows for the end of the week, bringing more showers into the forecast. The unsettled, showery pattern may continue through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

10:55pm Update... Just minor tweaks to temps and POPs for the rest of the night. A few sprinkles across parts of Somerset county depart over the next couple of hours, and then some patchy fog will continue to develop overnight, particularly near the coast.

7:45pm Update... Tweaked temps and POPS for this evening based on trends and latest high res guidance. A few brief showers remains possible near the Canadian border, but otherwise a mainly dry night is expected. Overall to major changes, with the forecast remaining on track at this time.

Previous...

A weak frontal boundary continues to approach the area this afternoon, and out ahead of it temperatures have warmed up into the 60s and 70s across the area. Even though the atmosphere has dried out since this morning, these warm temperatures have provided a small amount of instability, which should be enough for a few showers to develop out ahead of the front into early this evening. One favored region is southern NH into southwest ME, which still has dewpoints in the 50s, and the better moisture can be seen in the with slight growth to the cumulus field on latest satellite. The next area is into northern Franklin and central Somerset counties, where higher moisture is seen just upstream into Quebec along with showers on the CASSF radar. Most activity will diminish by sunset or shortly after with dry conditions overnight. One other thing to contend with is that models are hinting at fog development near the coast this evening into portions of tonight, which is certainly possible as the surface trough will be located in this region. Otherwise, a push of drier air will work in from the north, resulting in decreasing clouds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Tuesday will be a warm and dry day with mostly sunny skies with high pressure in control across the area. Good mixing supports highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area, with mid 70s in southern NH. It will also be breezy at times with wind gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, which might be enough to prevent the seabreeze, or at least keep it pinned close to the immediate coast.

Tuesday evening and the early part of Tuesday night start out mostly clear, but the column will gradually moisten overnight from west to east in response to low pressure moving across the Great Lakes and approaching New England. This will lead to increasing cloud cover, especially across NH, where light rain may start falling toward daybreak Wednesday. However, forecast soundings show lingering low- level dry air, so I have delayed and lowered PoPs slightly from the previous forecast for the Tuesday night period. Temperatures will be mostly in the mid 40s to around 50, but far northern and eastern areas may be able to reach the upper 30s where clouds move in later.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A rather steady upper-level jet streak situated along an axis from here to Colorado, and an upper-level low over the central US could bring a pattern conducive to the continual development of surface lows over the Midwest. These surface lows could then quickly move into New England, bringing continually rainy weather through most of the week/weekend after Wednesday. Cooler than average weather is expected through the start of next week.

Wednesday should be a pretty cloudy day, as a low arrives from the west. Widespread showers are expected with the passage of the low, and a few rumbles of thunder might be heard as well.

Gloomy and showery weather continue as more surface lows move across the region through the end of the week, with this pattern potentially continuing well into next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Coastal sites may see brief fog restrictions late this evening and tonight, but confidence remains low outside.
Otherwise a drier airmass works in behind the front through tonight, which is expected to bring mostly VFR conditions through Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, ceilings will start to lower through the the course of Tuesday night as low pressure approaches. The NH terminals could start seeing light rain in the 09Z to 12Z time window.

Long Term...
VFR with light winds is expected Wednesday morning.
Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening, with the greatest chance of thunder expected over southern and western New Hampshire, including KLEB. CIGs are expected to go in and out of MVFR starting Wednesday night due to and continuing into the weekend due to repeated bouts of showers.

MARINE
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night. A weak front crosses the waters later this afternoon and evening and will switch winds over to northerly tonight. Winds become S/SW Tuesday afternoon as center of high pressure sets up just south of the waters. By Tuesday night, a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes, and winds across the waters will become more easterly.

Long Term...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA criteria until Friday morning, when northeasterly winds pick up to 25 kts. Wave heights increase Friday morning as well and SCA seas and winds could continue into the weekend as well.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Salmon Falls River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     7.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

Dover Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, ME,