Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:28PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:26AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 131 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers. Patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Areas of fog. Rain showers likely in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Periods of rain during the day...then rain showers likely Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201703280900;;194807 FZUS51 KBUF 280541 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 131 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ045-280900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 281317
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
917 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will cross the region today, bringing
scattered rain showers across the region, while also producing some
fog. A light northerly wind through tonight will maintain a cloudy
sky across the region, while Wednesday and Thursday should feature
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the
week.

Near term /through tonight/
Surface analysis this morning displays two weak areas of low
pressure, one just to the north of lake ontario, and a second and
slightly stronger area of low pressure over oh/wv. Regional radars
display scattered rain showers across the saint lawrence valley
associated with the first low. Additional rain showers that have
more coverage area are located across oh/pa and are just now
reaching the nys line.

Temperatures of both air and dew point remain mild this early
morning. With a moisture rich environment and weak winds areas of
fog will likely form, thickest near the lake shores and hills of sw
nys and tug hill region, and becoming more patchy across the finger
lakes region.

For today a weak frontal boundary between these two areas of low
pressure will pass across the region. Along the front rain shower
activity will increase, along with some areas of fog forming as
surface dew points peak ahead of the front. Greatest chances for
rain showers will be across the so. Tier, closer to the weak surface
low. As this weak front passes today winds will veer to northerly by
this afternoon. While some fog may linger along the southern lake
ontario shoreline, the northerly winds will create a deck of low
stratus, with surface visibilities improving, but thick clouds
remaining. This northerly flow will continue through tonight as
surface high pressure nears the region, with clouds likely to linger
as moisture becomes trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.

Rain showers will also diminish through the afternoon and evening as
this surface high pressure nears the region, and surface low
pressures exit to the east. Overall total rain today and into this
evening will remain on the light side, with most areas remaining
below a quarter of an inch.

Temperatures today will be slightly cooler within the northerly wind
flow, with highs around normal, peaking in the upper 40s. Tonight
the lingering clouds will keep most areas just above the freezing
mark, though thin clouds, or even some late clearing across the
north country will allow for overnight temperatures to drop to
around 30.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
High pressure transiting hudson bay will extend ridging into the
great lakes region during the mid-week period. This will provide a
period of quiet weather and at least some sunshine. However... Things
start downhill again Thursday night... As a southern stream closed
low ejects from the southern rockies. Associated precipitation will
begin to push into the region from the west on Thursday night.

Wednesday through Thursday... Looks quiet... With an upper level
shortwave ridge axis moving overhead. Shallow cool air will be
pushing into the region on a general northerly low level flow with
850 mb temperatures down to around -8c. This will try to generate to
generate some lake clouds... Especially south of lake ontario, though
a dry airmass will hinder this process. Still... Expect no worse than
partly cloudy skies for Wednesday and Wednesday night with plenty of
locales mostly clear.

Thursday... High level then eventually mid clouds will be thickening
from southwest to northeast... As stronger warm advection shifts into
the mid mississippi valley and southern/eastern great lakes. A
tightening baroclinic zone over the region ahead of a developing
warm front should support at least some showers over the far western
counties later in the afternoon... While dry weather will persist
east of a rochester to canandaigua line.

Thursday night... A surface low will push from the mid mississippi
valley up into the ohio valley while a fairly strong warm front will
push north across our western counties. Fairly widespread rain will
blossom ahead of this feature... So have raised pops to 90 over the
west and to likely across the north country. While some wet snow
could mix in for sites north and east of the tug hill...

accumulations are not anticipated at this point.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
four corners region through Tuesday, then eject ene across the
southern plains to the ohio valley by Friday. The 12z guidance has
trended a little southward with the track of the ensuing surface
low, but still more than close enough for more rain over the region
through Friday.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
off the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the lower great lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard. The 12z GFS develops a few showers of rain and wet snow
later Saturday night and Sunday with a weak northern stream trough,
but for now favored the drier ECMWF solution for this time period.

Temperatures will likely run near to slightly above average through
the period, with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
lows in the 30s.

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/
For the 12z tafs flight conditions are starting to drop to ifr with
patchy fog, and low stratus developing.

A weak frontal boundary will cross the region between through about
noontime, and along this frontal boundary will be chances for
showers, along with areas of fog. Greatest chances for showers will
be towards the south, including the kjhw terminal. Flight conditions
will likely lower to ifr or lower for a 2 to 4 hour period around
sunrise, with a then northern flow maintaining ifr ceilings for a
period of time into the afternoon hours. These ifr CIGS will likely
remain longest across the so. Tier, including the kjhw terminal.

By tonight an area of high pressure will be funneling much drier air
across the region. This will thin the low stratus, that may remain
MVFR (ifr so. Tier) through Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday and into Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night into Saturday... MVFR/ifr with occasional rain showers.

Marine
A weak to modest pressure gradient across the lower lakes
region will lead to continued relatively light winds and minimal
waves right through Tuesday. A somewhat stronger northerly flow
will then follow Tuesday night through Wednesday as strong
canadian high pressure builds across the great lakes... However
winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory levels.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Rsh/tma
long term... Hitchcock/rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi49 min 34°F1012.6 hPa (+1.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.4)40°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi49 min 37°F 1013.3 hPa (+1.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi49 min WNW 6 G 8 44°F 1014.6 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi53 minW 33.00 miFog/Mist45°F45°F100%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5S4S6S6S7S5S4S5S5SW3SW4S3S3S3S3S4SW3SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoNE7NE8E10NE8NE9NE9E4NE4E6CalmCalmNE3S5SE4S3Calm3CalmS4S5S4CalmS5SE9
2 days agoNE10NE12NE11NE13N12NE13NE10NE12NE11NE13NE10NE7NE6NE8NE4CalmNE5E6E7NE7E8E9E9E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.