Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:35PM Monday January 22, 2018 3:07 PM EST (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 957 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon...then showers late in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Light showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Light showers in the morning. Light snow showers in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with light snow showers likely early in the evening...then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201801222215;;830638 FZUS53 KDTX 221457 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-222215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
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location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221501
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1001 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Update
Issued at 936 am est Mon jan 22 2018
stacked low pressure was over the mo ia border this morning, with
a warm front extending eastward into the mi in oh border. Upper
divergence, dpva and especially WAA with a 35kt to 45kt LLJ north
of the front was resulting in an expansive area of precipitation
across SRN lower michigan. The low pressure lifts ene through the
day with the warm front and it's associated forcing, lifting a
bit further north through the day. This will bring in more
widespread mixed precipitation to NRN michigan.

Already updated the forecast to cancel some of the SRN cwa
advisories as temperatures are currently above freezing, and not
expected to get below freezing with a lack of drier air there for
evaporative cooling wetbulb effects. This despite cool easterly
winds. However, some lower lying areas and surfaces that remain
cold, will be able to form a thin glaze for a couple of hours this
morning. The focus has shifted a bit more north in NRN lower
where the sfc temperatures were a couple degrees cooler, and where
an elevated above freezing layer from the low pressure wraps into
areas as far north as the straits to drummond island. This will
result in the typical snow to mixed type precipitation scenario
into tonight. The low pressure crosses late tonight, and winds
shift more out of the north, drawing in colder air and changing
things back to snow. These scenarios are always difficult to come
up with snow and ice amounts. However, attm, can see around an
inch or so at the m-32 line today, increasing to up to 4 inches
from parts of NE lower into eastern upper. Less snow for NRN lower
tonight as the precip type turn to more rain with predominantly
mixed precipitation in far NRN lower. Maybe another inch or two
there, with eastern upper in primarily snow and another 2-4 inches
(mixy in portions of mackinac county through drummond island).

Will have to keep a sharp eye on temperatures sfc obs through the
day, as a degree difference at the sfc and or aloft could result
in precip type change.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 256 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Wintry mix of precip developing today and tonight...

high impact weather potential... Widespread mixed precip today and
tonight causing hazardous travel.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Developing low pressure has reached
eastern kansas and western missouri early this morning. Associated
warm front extends northeastward from the developing low and into
the far southern great lakes region... Including far southern lower
michigan. So far... Precip has been spotty and mainly plain rain
across our SW cwa. Line of diminishing precip is making its way into
an area where temps are around freezing... So a few areas in our se
cwa may see some light freezing rain early this morning as expected.

Near term models all continue to gradually increase the areal
coverage of precip from south to north throughout today as deep
moisture surges northward ahead of the low. Warm front will lift to
our southern CWA border today into this evening as the surface low
follows this same path. Upper low center will track thru southern
lower michigan right behind the surface low. This track continues to
place our CWA within the area of mixed precip types as a relatively
impressive warm nose develops aloft via strengthening WAA ahead of
this system. Area of mixed precip potential (i.E. Freezing
rain sleet) will gradually lift northward thru our CWA thru today
and this evening following the warm nose... With southern sections of
our area switching over to plain rain as surface temps warm above
freezing. Will certainly maintain all advisory headlines as this
process plays out today and tonight. Heaviest snow amounts will of
course be across eastern upper michigan and the tip of the mitt.

Expect some ice accumulation across the northern half of our CWA as
well... But this should generally remain under two-tenths of an inch.

One thing is for sure... Travel across our CWA today into tonight
will be messy and at times hazardous.

High temps this afternoon will range from the upper 20s in eastern
upper michigan to around 40 degrees along our southern CWA border.

Caa will kick in tonight as the low begins to pull away from
michigan. Precip across eastern upper michigan will switch over to
snow later tonight as overnight lows drop into the teens. All but
our far SE CWA will switch over to snow as well late tonight. Low
temps across northern lower michigan will range from around 20
degrees in the straits to around the freezing mark near saginaw bay.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 256 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Winter storm departs and temperatures fall...

high impact weather potential... Travel will remain difficult across
northern michigan through Tuesday morning due to additional light
snow accumulation.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Winter storm will be out over the
southern half of lake huron Tuesday morning, departing into southern
quebec by evening. In its wake, wraparound moisture will lead to
continued precipitation across northern michigan, quickly
transitioning to all snow as much colder air infiltrates the region.

A brief period of nnw flow lake effect snow showers is possible
during the afternoon around and south of the grand traverse bay
area, diminishing quickly during the evening as much drier air
settles in. Strong surface high builds into the upper great lakes
overnight and into Wednesday, resulting in dry but cold weather
midweek.

Primary forecast concerns... Diminishing precipitation and transition
to snow on the backside of the departing storm.

Precipitation will still be ongoing Tuesday morning across northern
michigan, but diminishing in coverage over time as the system
gradually pulls away. The more intense precip and heavier qpf
Tuesday morning is expected across northern lower. Looks like any
lingering wintry mix down towards saginaw bay will quickly
transition to all snow as colder air blasts back into the region on
gusty nnw winds. Little if any additional ice accum expected as a
result. There is a very small chance of some patchy freezing drizzle
across eastern upper in the morning, as forecast soundings show
saturated low levels just barely extending up to around -10c.

Otherwise remaining synoptic snow will give way to some light lake
effect snow showers around and south of grand traverse bay by
afternoon as 850mb temperatures drop. These will diminish quickly
during the evening as the low levels dry out. Snow accumulations
Tuesday morning will generally range from 1-2" across northern lower
and up to 1" across eastern upper.

Dry weather with a return to much colder temperatures is in store
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows will be in the low single
digits across eastern upper and range from single digits to teens
across northern lower. Highs Wednesday range from teens to mid 20s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 256 am est Mon jan 22 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Cold surface high pressure will drift east of the region on
Thursday, with low level winds veering south in its wake. This will
lead to a period of warm air advection and warming temperatures,
especially on Friday. Dry conditions expected to continue through
Friday, but the increasing southerly flow will transport higher
moisture into the region by the weekend. A potent system will lift
from the dakotas into ontario by Friday night, with northern
michigan residing within the warm sector. Rain and snow showers
overnight will give way to rain on Saturday, but a strong cold front
will usher in a colder airmass for Sunday with lake effect snow
chances returning early next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 615 am est Mon jan 22 2018
strong low pressure will track thru lower michigan tonight. Deep
moisture will surge northward ahead of this system... Producing
widespread mixed precip across our area today and tonight. Precip
will be mainly rain at mbl and tvc thru most of the 24 hour taf
period... While apn and pln will receive a mix of
snow rain freezing rain sleet. Overall conditions will be ifr thru
the period with low stratus and areas of fog. East winds will
strengthen to 10 to 20 kts today with some higher gusts expected.

Winds will shift to the NE and eventually north late tonight as
the low tracks just south of our region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Tuesday for miz008-015.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for
miz016>019-021-022.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for miz023-
024.

Update... Smd
near term... Mr
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi38 min NE 8 G 8.9 33°F 1005.4 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi68 min ENE 9.9 G 11 34°F 1004.7 hPa (-3.8)
KP58 34 mi77 min ESE 12 35°F 1006.4 hPa34°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi50 min SSE 11 G 13 34°F 1005.5 hPa34°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi73 minSE 51.00 miUnknown Precip36°F36°F99%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E4E8E7E8E7E8E5
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1 day agoW3SW3SW5SW3SW3S4SW4SW4SW3SW3SW5SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW9SW8SW11SW12SW13
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W10W7W7W7W7W9W10W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.