Marine Weather and Tides
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
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|Sunrise 7:17AM||Sunset 8:02PM||Thursday March 30, 2017 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC)||Moonrise 8:07AM||Moonset 10:13PM||Illumination 11%|
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|LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 957 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017 |
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through late Friday night...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Light snow and rain in the late morning and early afternoon...then rain and a chance of light snow late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Rain and a slight chance of freezing rain early in the evening...then rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light rain likely early in the evening...then a chance of light rain and snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
|LHZ421 Expires:201703302115;;314163 FZUS53 KDTX 301357 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 957 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ421-302115-|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kapx 301516|
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1116 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
Issued at 1116 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
overview: parent stacked/occluding low pressure system analyzed
over the kansas/missouri border this morning with a warm front
stretching eastward through kentucky. Surface high pressure sits
over western quebec down into the northern lakes. Strong upper
jet core stretches through the mid mississippi river valley with a
secondary core across the northern lakes... Placing lower michigan
within a favored upper divergence region of the coupled jet
Nice "warm conveyor belt" of moisture stretches from the gulf up
into the western great lakes this morning. Precipitation becomes
most expansive across the lower great lakes well north of the
surface warm front... Where a tight low-mid level thermal gradient
and strong deformation exists... Coupled with the aforementioned
upper jet forcing. But northward advancement of precip thus far
this morning has "hit a wall" south of m-55... The result of dry
low level easterly flow across northern michigan around the
canadian high and likely part of the descending branch of the
upper jet circulation.
Rest of today: as mentioned above, regional radar plot tells the
story, at least in the near term. Northward advancement of more
widespread precip has pretty much halted south of m-55... Just
getting into far gladwin/arenac counties. 12z NAM forecast as well
as latest hrr trends now suggesting precip will largely remain out
of this CWA through much of the afternoon... Save for parts of
gladwin/arenac counties. Again, radar trends certainly support
that idea. At this point, my plan is to reduce pops/qpf/accumulations
through at least mid to late afternoon.
Late this afternoon/tonight: guidance trends still support the
idea of another piece of upper jet forcing/enhanced precip
sliding out of illinois and up through the SE part of the CWA late
this afternoon into the evening. One can already see this next
batch of precip blossoming over illinois. So... Will see how that
evolves and will have to play around with precip type for late
afternoon into this evening.
Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 431 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
high impact weather potential: a wintry mix and possible slippery
Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, sfc high pressure continues to nose into the
great lakes. However, sprawling low pressure/stacked system in the
south central plains is ejecting shortwave energy along an elevated
warm front across much of SRN lower michigan. Somewhat high based
reflectivities seen on regional radars sneaking into areas south of
m-72 over the past handful of hours (mainly light snow/flurries),
within NRN extent of strongest low to mid level warm advection. The
better/heavier precipitation is still well back to the SW in NRN il
where the strongest forcing resided, consisting of that waa, upper
divergence in double jet structure and stronger dpva ahead of the
Forecast concerns: still some significant disagreement in location
and amounts of qpf, along with sfc temperatures due to wetbulbing
effects. This impacts where and how much snow resides, and what
precip type is expected.
From a synoptic pattern perspective, the stacked low pressure system
will track in an east-northeast manner into indiana by Friday
daybreak. This will bring deepening moisture and stronger forcing
via the waa, upper divergence and dpva into the region. The location
of the strongest forcing ATTM looks to be in the SE CWA along and
south of a line from cadillac to alpena. Again, the issue here is
that there are significant differences in the data sets. The main
two issues are what the sfc temperature will be and whether or not
an fgen band can develop this afternoon across the SE cwa. Hi-res
guidance is dead set on sfc temperatures cooling off through
afternoon via wetbulb effects. Essentially allowing for a longer
period of snow and not a mix which would limit accumulations.
However, we will likely need the stronger precipitation for enough
wetbulbing to reduce that temperature and keep it snow. This is
likely going to be relying on the fgen to be there. Some of the hi-
res snowfall forecasts are insanely high, with double digit totals
being seen. Am certainly not going that direction to full extent, or
nowhere near it since some other data sets suggest much much lower
qpf numbers. This is a really tough scenario, and folks will
definitely want to pay attention to later forecast for updated
information, or just be ready for higher snowfall totals that the 1-
3 inches are forecast.
The stronger forcing departs after early evening, and there are
hints of periods of time where deeper moisture is stripped out enough
for less/no ice activation. This will lead to periods of light rain
and drizzle, with maybe some light freezing precip in the coolest
temperatures in the interior higher terrain of NRN lower.
This whole event doesn't look to impact much of eastern upper, where
far SE sections of chippewa and mackinac counties may receive some
minor snowfall by tonight's end.
Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 431 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
Precip diminishes Friday followed by pleasant weekend weather... |
high impact weather potential: minimal. Brief wintry mix
transitions to all rain Friday morning.
Pattern forecast: area of low pressure is progged to be centered
over northern indiana/southern lower mi by Friday morning with
deformation precip plaguing portions of northern michigan through
the midday hours Friday before pulling away toward the east coast.
The patterns becomes much more quiet over the weekend, with little
in the way of sensible weather locally, as high pressure settles
atop the western great lakes.
Primary forecast concerns: the main forecast concerns revolve around
diminishing precipitation trends Friday morning into the early
afternoon. As was previously mentioned, deformation precip on the
northern periphery of low pressure/southern stream wave is expected
to linger across portions of the area Friday morning. With boundary
layer temps continuing to warm through midday, any early
lingering mixed rain/freezing rain, drizzle and snow across the
tip of the mitt and eastern upper is expected to transition to
plain rain/drizzle as we head through the morning. Latest trends
suggest stubborn low-level moisture may allow for a good chunk of
northern michigan to remain stuck under low clouds and patchy
drizzle through at least early afternoon (if not longer across
eastern areas) before a more significant shot of low-level dry air
impedes on the area from northwest to southeast. Expecting breaks
in the clouds to begin to first work their in across eastern
upper/far northwest lower during the mid-late afternoon and
elsewhere throughout the evening. High temperatures near 40 area-
wide... Perhaps a bit warmer across eastern upper/tip of the mitt
with a bit of afternoon sun.
Canadian high pressure begins to settle atop the great lakes Friday
night and more so Saturday-Saturday night. Despite a weak wave
zipping through fairly zonal upper-level flow during the day
Saturday, the forecast will represent little more than a bit of
increased cloud cover Saturday afternoon and night as in-place dry
air should stave off any light shower/sprinkle threat. Widespread
high temps in the mid-40s to low 50s.
Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 431 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
high impact weather potential...
another fairly pleasant day is expected across northern michigan on
Sunday with above normal temperatures, but increasing cloudiness as
the day wears on. Fairly progressive northern stream wave is
expected to be toeing the u.S./canada border near international
falls by Sunday evening, which may spread scattered showers across
the area Sunday night. Next week - a fairly active storm track looks
to be setting up across the CONUS with several waves diving into the
four-corners region before ejecting lee of the rockies. Plenty of
guidance spread in the day 5-8 timeframe to warrant much in the way
of details, but worth monitoring for several wet (perhaps more
wintry late next week?) systems to work their way through the
heart of the country.
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 714 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
a strong storm system well to the south will advect deeper
moisture into the region through the day.VFR CIGS will lower to
MVFR through the day while rain and snow gradually expand from sw
to NE impacting mainly mbl/tvc and apn. Precip type will be mainly
just rain at mbl/tvc with definite snows arriving at pln/apn this
afternoon and evening. East winds will remain 10 to 15 mph through
the period with gusts mainly during the daytime to around 20 mph.
Ifr/low end MVFR CIGS more probably tonight with some fog in more
sporadic light precip and periods of drizzle.
Total snows maybe up to 3 inches at apn with less than an inch at
pln... And none for tvc/mbl.
Issued at 431 am edt Thu mar 30 2017
a low pressure system will track in an east-northeast manner into
indiana by Friday daybreak and then into mid atlantic by Friday
night. A mix of rain and snow will impact the nearshore waters along
with strengthening easterly winds today into Friday morning.
Advisory level winds are expected over this time for all of lake
huron and michigan. Less chance across whitefish bay. Winds back
more out of the NE later Friday and Friday night with NE lower
nearshores seeing the continuation of advisory speeds. Winds weaken
through the latter hours of Friday night.
Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for lhz345-347>349.
Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for lmz323-342-
Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lmz341.
near term... Smd
short term... Mjg
long term... Mjg
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI||8 mi||64 min||E 15 G 20||37°F||1018.6 hPa|
|SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI||17 mi||44 min||E 19 G 22||34°F||1016.3 hPa (-2.3)|
|TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI||22 mi||64 min||ENE 13 G 17||36°F||1019 hPa|
|KP58||34 mi||53 min||E 12||36°F||1019.4 hPa||31°F|
|HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI||43 mi||44 min||ESE 11 G 12||36°F||1018.1 hPa (-2.1)||31°F|
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI||26 mi||48 min||E 8 G 14||2.50 mi||Light Snow||34°F||31°F||93%||1018.3 hPa|
Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NE|
|2 days ago||W||W||W||NW||W||NW||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||NE|
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Weather Map and Satellite Images(on/off)  Help
|Weather Map ||IR Satellite Image from GEOS|
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes EDIT
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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