Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Port, MI
May 7, 2024 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:46 AM Moonset 7:39 PM |
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 458 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight veering to the southwest early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday - Northeast winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 071921 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 321 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain chances tonight through mid day Wednesday with embedded thunder
- Couple opportunities for showers and minor accumulation Thursday into the the weekend, cooler too.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current radar shows a line of moderate rain showers orientated from NW/SE beginning to move across northern lower this afternoon. Webcams near Empire Beach show a shelf cloud associated with this precip. No lightning strikes have been detected yet, however KMBL is reporting heavier rainfall. This aligns with CAMs current forecasts for little to no instability quiet yet. This intial band will break apart as it moves across northern lower, as it is detached from the surface front that gave it life earlier this morning. Rain chances with isolated embedded thunder will persist overnight tonight as the cold/occluded front will move over the state. Most of the thunder threats will be gone by morning with light rain lingering through mid day for eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. Winds will turn north to northwest Wednesday with clouds lingering most of the day. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler especially with areas of persistent cloud cover.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Surface observations currently place the surface cold front over WI/IL/MO this afternoon.
Convection is already beginning to initiate along the boundary. An upper level short wave will move a jet over IL/IN this afternoon, which will carry the surface low towards MI. Upper and mid level heights will quickly decrease after 00Z as stronger winds aloft move over the southern part of the state. This will slightly increase instability over northern lower to a few hundred joules of MU CAPE.
By this time, there will be enough moisture in the lower levels due to the first round of precip saturating the atmosphere and advection near the surface. The main thunder threat exists over northern lower, as the front will likely be occluded over eastern upper and the instability overnight will be mostly conditional. Synoptic forcing will create the widespread rain/precip but the embedded thunder will mostly rely on the boundaries forcing. Therefore, the best chances for thunder will be over NW lower this evening, and NE lower tonight. The main threats with the thunder will be brief heavy rain and marginally gusty winds. There isn't enough energy up here for threats to be severe at this time. Total rainfall forecasted is generally 0.25 to 0.75 inches over northern lower. Areas that see convection could see rainfall up to an inch. Eastern upper and the tip of the mitt will have better chances of widespread one inch due to rain lingering into Wednesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Mess of energy rotates around and to the south of northern Michigan Thursday into the nighttime, thus keeping a low pressure system to the south of the region with rain shower chances. Next vigorous short wave drops down from Canada into the Upper Midwest this weekend with a chance for more showers and continued cool weather.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Conglomerate of energy rotates north to south and east to west across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valleyish region on Thursday. This will likely result in a low pressure system tracking to the south of northern Michigan, with just the potential for showers across southern areas. Like the look of GEFS (other ENS agree/are shifting south) with this system which spits out low probs for 0.1" of QPF with this event, mainly along and south of M-32, farther south better chance, less so north. Generally expecting light rain accumulation favoring the southern half of northern lower, and thus should not be a big deal (we'll see how far south/north the precip shield deviates in the coming days). North to northeasterly flow will result in cool temps with perhaps some opportunity for patchy frost across the interior (sometime between Thurs night - Saturday night? We'll see).
Cooler (seasonable though) weather to remain into the weekend as energy aloft dives down from Canada into the Upper Midwest. Right now it appears the best chance for showers will be Saturday, but still uncertain on how far southwest this energy will track, and if any additional pieces merge and slow down the system. Current fcst suggests a quicker moving system with light precipitation but we'll keep an eye on this moving forward.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Currently VFR skies with winds E/SE generally 10kts with G15-20kts. A line of SHRA is approaching KMBL currently and will continue eastward tonight. Mostly MVFR/IFR cigs and vis will be seen, however chances for embedded TS could lead to times of +RA especailly for NW lower terminals 22Z - 03Z and for NE lower terminals 02Z - 08Z. Terminals could see vis and cigs drop to IFR/LIFR during the aforementioned windows if TS & +RA moves over. Chances for VCSH linger over E Upper and tip of the mitt terminals through ~15Z. Winds will veer to the N/NW by 12Z for most sites. Gusty winds could be seen near VCTS/TS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 321 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain chances tonight through mid day Wednesday with embedded thunder
- Couple opportunities for showers and minor accumulation Thursday into the the weekend, cooler too.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current radar shows a line of moderate rain showers orientated from NW/SE beginning to move across northern lower this afternoon. Webcams near Empire Beach show a shelf cloud associated with this precip. No lightning strikes have been detected yet, however KMBL is reporting heavier rainfall. This aligns with CAMs current forecasts for little to no instability quiet yet. This intial band will break apart as it moves across northern lower, as it is detached from the surface front that gave it life earlier this morning. Rain chances with isolated embedded thunder will persist overnight tonight as the cold/occluded front will move over the state. Most of the thunder threats will be gone by morning with light rain lingering through mid day for eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. Winds will turn north to northwest Wednesday with clouds lingering most of the day. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler especially with areas of persistent cloud cover.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Surface observations currently place the surface cold front over WI/IL/MO this afternoon.
Convection is already beginning to initiate along the boundary. An upper level short wave will move a jet over IL/IN this afternoon, which will carry the surface low towards MI. Upper and mid level heights will quickly decrease after 00Z as stronger winds aloft move over the southern part of the state. This will slightly increase instability over northern lower to a few hundred joules of MU CAPE.
By this time, there will be enough moisture in the lower levels due to the first round of precip saturating the atmosphere and advection near the surface. The main thunder threat exists over northern lower, as the front will likely be occluded over eastern upper and the instability overnight will be mostly conditional. Synoptic forcing will create the widespread rain/precip but the embedded thunder will mostly rely on the boundaries forcing. Therefore, the best chances for thunder will be over NW lower this evening, and NE lower tonight. The main threats with the thunder will be brief heavy rain and marginally gusty winds. There isn't enough energy up here for threats to be severe at this time. Total rainfall forecasted is generally 0.25 to 0.75 inches over northern lower. Areas that see convection could see rainfall up to an inch. Eastern upper and the tip of the mitt will have better chances of widespread one inch due to rain lingering into Wednesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Mess of energy rotates around and to the south of northern Michigan Thursday into the nighttime, thus keeping a low pressure system to the south of the region with rain shower chances. Next vigorous short wave drops down from Canada into the Upper Midwest this weekend with a chance for more showers and continued cool weather.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Conglomerate of energy rotates north to south and east to west across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valleyish region on Thursday. This will likely result in a low pressure system tracking to the south of northern Michigan, with just the potential for showers across southern areas. Like the look of GEFS (other ENS agree/are shifting south) with this system which spits out low probs for 0.1" of QPF with this event, mainly along and south of M-32, farther south better chance, less so north. Generally expecting light rain accumulation favoring the southern half of northern lower, and thus should not be a big deal (we'll see how far south/north the precip shield deviates in the coming days). North to northeasterly flow will result in cool temps with perhaps some opportunity for patchy frost across the interior (sometime between Thurs night - Saturday night? We'll see).
Cooler (seasonable though) weather to remain into the weekend as energy aloft dives down from Canada into the Upper Midwest. Right now it appears the best chance for showers will be Saturday, but still uncertain on how far southwest this energy will track, and if any additional pieces merge and slow down the system. Current fcst suggests a quicker moving system with light precipitation but we'll keep an eye on this moving forward.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Currently VFR skies with winds E/SE generally 10kts with G15-20kts. A line of SHRA is approaching KMBL currently and will continue eastward tonight. Mostly MVFR/IFR cigs and vis will be seen, however chances for embedded TS could lead to times of +RA especailly for NW lower terminals 22Z - 03Z and for NE lower terminals 02Z - 08Z. Terminals could see vis and cigs drop to IFR/LIFR during the aforementioned windows if TS & +RA moves over. Chances for VCSH linger over E Upper and tip of the mitt terminals through ~15Z. Winds will veer to the N/NW by 12Z for most sites. Gusty winds could be seen near VCTS/TS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 8 mi | 75 min | E 12G | 61°F | 29.63 | |||
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 17 mi | 55 min | S 9.9G | 62°F | 29.60 | |||
| TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 22 mi | 75 min | E 14G | 51°F | 29.64 | |||
| KP58 | 34 mi | 60 min | ESE 8.9 | 53°F | 29.64 | 45°F | ||
| HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 43 mi | 55 min | E 4.1G | 52°F | 29.62 |
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