Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:16 AM EST (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 954 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy late in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain and snow in the late morning and early afternoon, then a chance of light rain late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming south to 30 knots early in the morning. Light rain with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest gales to 40 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers and light snow showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. A storm warning may be needed.
Sunday night..West gales to 35 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots diminishing to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201902232215;;388315 FZUS53 KDTX 231454 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 954 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-232215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
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location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231133
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 300 am est Sat feb 23 2019
high impact weather: freezing rain and some light accumulations of
snow. Main area to be impacted: eastern upper michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a negatively tilted upper trough with and it's associated area of
deepening low pressure was pressing into the SRN plains early this
morning. Deep gulf of mexico moisture was surging out ahead of this
storm system, and when combined with widespread waa, pockets of dpva
from energy ejected from the trough, and upper divergence jet
dynamics from a double jet streak pattern, and several areas of
precipitation were impacting the eastern two-thirds of the country.

The closest batch to NRN michigan resided out across the mid and
upper mississippi valley, where some relatively weaker forcing was
resulting in some light snow in somewhat high based clouds, which
was trying to develop eastward into the western great lakes. Further
south into missouri kansas, another batch of rain showers, as well
as some embedded thunderstorms, were tracking ne. The strongest
forcing was just ahead of the main upper trough and sfc low moving
into NW texas and the oklahoma panhandle.

The upper trough and sfc low will lift into the mid mississippi
valley by this evening, and into the western great lakes through
tonight, while the associated sfc low will continue to rapidly
deepen. A few waves of precipitation are expected over this time.

The first is with that batch of light snow trying to develop into
the western great lakes. Although the air mass is not very saturated
below 8kft, forcing and top down saturation is expected to continue
to develop the band of snow that drifts into areas north of m-32 in
nrn lower, and especially into eastern upper this morning. Not too
big of a deal with a half inch to an inch for mainly eastern upper.

Then, more attention needs to be paid to the batch of precipitation
currently in mo ks, which is expected to make it into NRN michigan
late this afternoon and evening. We will be under increasing WAA all
the way through tonight, and this is when the concerns about
precipitation start. Fcst soundings continue to show a pronounced
warm layer aloft, melting precipitation aloft. Out ahead of this
warm layer, p-type is expected to fall as snow mainly in the nrn
cwa, and a snow rain mix south, before changing to rain in most
areas of NRN lower by late afternoon and evening (sfc temperatures
rising into the mid and upper 30s). The problem has been, and
continues to be, can the increasing WAA stop any significant sfc
temperature drop in the evening? Was wondering about this yesterday
morning, and the latest data has trended that way, with most areas
of NRN lower in the 33f to 36f range, thus resulting in a decreased
threat to any significant freezing rain chance. On the other hand,
for eastern upper, sfc temperatures are expected to be in the lower
30s while the warm layer aloft arrives, leaving a more significant
freezing rain sleet scenario. Ice amounts up to a quarter of an inch
are possible. Also, NRN michigan lies on the NRN end of general
thunderstorms. There is some 200 j kg or so of MUCAPE tonight for
the SRN cwa, so don't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder.

Sfc temperatures continue to rise through the overnight hours, and
the next wave of forcing (strongest forcing), with the parent upper
trough and sfc low brings the heaviest precipitation. All rain is
expected in NRN lower, with even eastern sections of chip mack
counties in eastern upper possibly changing over to primarily rain.

Mainly snows in western sections of the counties with 1-3" possible.

There is a fine line here on p-type, making headline decisions
difficult.

Will plan on going to a winter storm warning for eastern upper due
to more confidence in getting the freezing precipitation tonight.

Will hold the watch for NRN lower for additional looks at
temperature data through today, which can maybe lead to more
confidence one way or another on freezing rain rain (1-2 degrees
makes a huge difference). Finally, there's the best confidence in no
freezing rain issue across some of the far SE counties, who are
likely to be removed from most of the upcoming snow lake effect snow
for Sunday (see below). Am considering going to a high wind watch
due to potential very strong wind gusts (again see below).

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 255 am est Sat feb 23 2019
high impact weather potential: high
primary forecast concerns challenges: blowing drifting snow with
very strong winds Sunday into Monday morning.

By Sunday morning the upper level low will be over NRN lake
michigan, with its surface low getting stacked underneath. The main
occluded front pivots through e. Upper early in the morning, and our
warm nose gets shunted off to the north and east. Low level flow
picks up out of the southwest as the surface low moves through the
nrn portions of the lake. We quickly recover from the dry slot
Sunday morning, and profiles suggest a rain snow mix with surface
temperatures still above freezing for n. Lower. Early in the
morning, some ponding on roadways is still possible, given some snow
melt and continued rain mixed in. Through the day cold air filtering
in behind the low will steadily drop surface temperatures. According
to ensembles, temperatures fall below freezing between 18 and 21z
for most places west of i-75 and north of m-55, allowing the
changeover to all snow Sunday afternoon. Further south and east, the
switchover to snow occurs a little later. Winds become a concern
starting in the early afternoon, then last through the night. The
low will surprisingly still be intensifying as it passes through
the straits region, and the pressure gradient quickly tightens
over the area. Winds switch out of the northwest and becomes
sustained between 25 and 35 kts mid morning. Bufkit momentum
transfer readouts bring anywhere from 45 to 55 kts (or more)
easily down to the surface. With strong CAA downward motion mixed
boundary layer, these values seem likely. Potential for blowing
snow increases as slr's increase in the colder air. Widespread
reduced visibility and blowing drifting snow are likely, with
possible whiteout conditions from Sunday afternoon through early
Monday morning. North-south orientated roads and any open areas
with be the hardest hit by whiteout conditions. Some potentially
heavy snow bands could set up from Sunday afternoon into the
overnight hours, as inversion heights rise to around 5 kft, delta-
ts increase to near 15 c, a deep dgz forming, strong
unidirectional bl winds, and plenty of low and mid- level moisture
leftover.

Sunday night temperatures continue to plummet through the teens,
bottoming out in the single digits in e.Upper and higher terrain of
n. Lower. The pressure gradient remains tight through the night into
Monday morning, although it slackens a bit, easing wind gusts down
into the 20s by mid-morning. Nevertheless, some blowing and drifting
snow is still definitely possible through the morning hours. We
transition to a pure lake effect regime Monday afternoon, with
slightly stronger overlake instability, but it will be fighting
sinking inversion heights down to near 3 kft. Winds also slowly back
through the day, spreading out accumulations. Highs do not rebound
very much, into the lower teens north and upper teens south.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 255 am est Sat feb 23 2019
high impact weather potential: low
primary forecast concerns challenges: minimal
strong ridging in the eastern pacific will extend north, pushing
large positive 500mb height anomolies well north of alaska. This
will likely push waves of very cold air over our region, especially
next weekend. We'll be under general troughing for much of next
week, with weak waves passing over the area, each bringing a chance
of snow. Surface high pressure slides in Tuesday, followed by a weak
system on Wednesday. Guidance is still fairly spread on the
Wednesday system however. The end of the week appears quiet for now,
until another potential system early next weekend. As mentioned
above temperatures will be cold, ranging about 10 or 15 degrees
below normal for late february.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 618 am est Sat feb 23 2019
strong deepening low pressure moving into the SRN plains will lift
up into NRN michigan by daybreak Sunday. Outside of some possible
brief light snow at pln through shortly after daybreak,VFR
conditions in thickening mid and upper level clouds will be common
through the day. Then, MVFR ifr conditions return, in mixed
precipitation of rain, snow and some freezing rain, which will
spread over all of NRN michigan later this afternoon and into
tonight. Precipitation is expected to change over to all rain
later tonight in a warming air mass.

Light ese winds will increase later today and into tonight ahead of
the approaching storm, with mechanical mixing likely getting held
back due to a stable near sfc layer. This brings in the likely
development of llws, which continues through much of tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter storm watch from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday
morning for miz016>023-025>028-031>033.

Winter storm watch from 4 pm est this afternoon through late
Sunday night for miz024-029-030-034>036-041-042.

Winter storm warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est Monday
for miz008-015.

Near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi37 min ENE 9.9 G 11 30°F 1025.1 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi77 min E 7 G 8 28°F 1024.7 hPa (-1.4)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 22 mi37 min E 8.9 G 13 31°F 1024.7 hPa
KP58 34 mi26 min ESE 11 30°F 1025.8 hPa26°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi29 min ESE 16 G 19 29°F 33°F1024.8 hPa24°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi41 minESE 510.00 miOvercast30°F25°F80%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6CalmS4CalmS3S3SE4E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3E5E5E4
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W5--W4NW5W4NW4NW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE5E8E11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.