Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 6:45AM||Sunset 8:32PM||Monday August 20, 2018 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC)||Moonrise 3:45PM||Moonset 12:33AM||Illumination 65%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
Much needed widespread rain develops tonight...
high impact weather potential... Minimal. Slight chance of non-severe
Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface ridge axis continues to slowly
exit eastward away from michigan early this morning... As an
unseasonably strong area of low pressure continues to gather
strength as it moves out of the central plains and into the mid
mississippi valley. Several areas of convection continue to fire
well to our south and west around this system. Closer to home... Some
patchy low stratus fog is once again developing overnight as mid
clouds begin to increase overhead well in advance of the upstream
As we head into today... An inverted trough associated with the
system to our SW will lean into upper michigan by this afternoon.
This enhanced convergence combined with gradually increasing low mid
level moisture as well as building diurnal instability will kick off
scattered showers and a few storms across eastern upper and far
northern lower michigan this afternoon into early evening. Upstream
surface low itself will gradually lift NE out of the mid mississippi
valley... Reaching southern lower michigan by 12z Tuesday. More
widespread showers and a few storms will develop from SW to ne
tonight as deep moisture surges into our CWA ahead of the surface
low. Instability will be rather unimpressive during this time due to
lake of diurnal contribution... Thus only expect a slight chance of
non-severe storms tonight and mainly for our southern cwa.
Latest near term models have backed off on the timing of the start
of precip... And have shifted the track of the surface low slightly
further south. Have therefore delayed the onset of pops a bit and
have pushed higher pops and QPF further south as well.
Expect another warm august day with high temps a couple of degrees
either side of 80. Low temps tonight will cool back into the low
to mid 60s.
Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
high impact weather potential: potential for low end gale force
gusts into Wednesday morning. Decent rainfall expected through the
day Tuesday, but flooding issues not expected.
Pattern synopsis forecast: sharp troughing and robust surface low
will finally be getting into the region by Tuesday morning. The low
continues to look to pass through the thumb through the day Tuesday.
High pressure will build quickly behind the departing low, sliding
through the ohio valley through the end of the week.
Primary forecast concerns: primary concern is with the low end gale
gust potential into Wednesday morning. Secondary is with regards to
any convective potential during the day Tuesday, which could bring
locally heavier rain totals.
Not a lot has changed in terms of thinking since yesterday. Starting
to see good agreement for this low to pass through the thumb, which
would place the deformation axis into the forecast area. Instability
still looks low, though the euro is still producing a few hundred
j kg, which will aid in a more prolonged stratiform rain. This would
be more beneficial for the currently dry conditions, though still
not enough to close the deficit for many areas (many areas have 60
day deficits over 2", with onaway at -4.34"). Going QPF still looks
good, and the slight increase over yesterday makes sense given the
favorable environment for efficient precip production. We still
remain well under 6 hour ffg, but the areas in the SE CWA where
convection would be more likely have had more rain recently. Will
need to keep an eye out for any convective enhancements in that
area. Will need to watch for potential southward shift with the|
track, as that could shift the axis of heavier rains (and the
stronger winds) south as well.
Things still similar for the wind potential as well. A core of
enhanced wind speeds (35kts+ at 925mb and around 45kts at 850mb)
will develop in the tightening pressure gradient as the low exits
and the leading edge of high pressure arrives. There is guidance
disagreement on the overall strength of these winds and how broad
they are, but the signal is there in varying degrees. That said,
mixing should be effective over the lakes with sfc to h8 delta TS as
much as 14c, along with downward motion indicated with positive 1000-
850 omega values accompanying the strongest core of winds. Just how
much translates to the surface remains the big question. We will
certainly be solidly into small craft advisory criteria, and could
approach low end gale gusts. It still looks marginal enough to hold
off on any gale warnings, but they certainly remain a possibility.
Another concern with the winds is with grand traverse bay. Winds
will be northerly which can cause issues there, though they look to
be a few degrees off from true north at any given time. May need to
consider lakeshore flooding product, especially if winds shift a few
degrees to a more true north orientation. It will likely be a rather
choppy day in the bay.
Winds will begin to diminish by Wednesday afternoon as the low lifts
further into quebec and the pressure gradient relaxes. While the
main system rain will be out of the area, the cool h8 air overhead
will have delta TS greater than 13c into Wednesday evening. Expect
to see at minimum lake enhanced clouds out of this setup, perhaps
some lake effect showers. Temperatures with, and behind, this system
on Tuesday and Wednesday will get down in the low to mid 70s.
Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
things will remain relatively quiet through the first part of the
weekend as high pressure moves through the ohio valley. An occluding
low moving across the northern plains could bring some more rain
Saturday Sunday, though much less than with the system Tuesday.
Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1149 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
areas of fog stratus will reform overnight, lingering into Monday
morning in some areas. However, cirrus is encroaching on the
region from the west, especially overnight into Monday. That will
keep the fog stratus from being as extensive as it was on previous
nights. mbl is already dealing with some valley fog, but that
should thin out toward daybreak. CIGS will lower during the day
and evening on Monday, ahead of low pressure to our sw. But better
rain chances will hold off until the very end of the TAF period.
Light winds, becoming easterly Monday.
Issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
unseasonably strong area of low pressure will lift NE out of the mid
mississippi valley today... Sliding thru southern lower michigan
tonight and then exiting NE thru SE ontario and into quebec Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria
today and tonight... But will likely strengthen to SCA criteria
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the pressure gradient tightens on the
backside of the departing low. Much better chances of rain will
develop tonight across northern michigan as deep moisture from this
system surges northward into the great lakes region.
Apx watches warnings advisories
Near term... Mr
short term... Am
long term... Am
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI||8 mi||30 min||SSE 4.1 G 11||72°F||1017.6 hPa|
|45163||9 mi||30 min||SSW 9.7 G 9.7||73°F||74°F||1 ft|
|SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI||17 mi||70 min||S 15 G 17||73°F||1016.3 hPa (-0.3)|
|TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI||22 mi||30 min||S 5.1 G 9.9||71°F||1017.3 hPa|
|KP58||34 mi||19 min||Calm||64°F||1016.5 hPa||63°F|
|HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI||43 mi||46 min||SW 2.9 G 4.1||67°F||1016.8 hPa||65°F|
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Huron County Memorial Airport, MI||26 mi||74 min||N 0||1.75 mi||Fog/Mist||60°F||59°F||97%||1017.3 hPa|
Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||E||E||Calm||N||N||N||NE||NE||NE||N||N||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||Calm||E||Calm||N||N||N||N|
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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