Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:32PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 400 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of light showers early in the evening...then a chance of light showers late in the evening. Showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west early in the afternoon...then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201808201515;;934521 FZUS53 KDTX 200800 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-201515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 200635
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Much needed widespread rain develops tonight...

high impact weather potential... Minimal. Slight chance of non-severe
thunderstorms.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface ridge axis continues to slowly
exit eastward away from michigan early this morning... As an
unseasonably strong area of low pressure continues to gather
strength as it moves out of the central plains and into the mid
mississippi valley. Several areas of convection continue to fire
well to our south and west around this system. Closer to home... Some
patchy low stratus fog is once again developing overnight as mid
clouds begin to increase overhead well in advance of the upstream
system.

As we head into today... An inverted trough associated with the
system to our SW will lean into upper michigan by this afternoon.

This enhanced convergence combined with gradually increasing low mid
level moisture as well as building diurnal instability will kick off
scattered showers and a few storms across eastern upper and far
northern lower michigan this afternoon into early evening. Upstream
surface low itself will gradually lift NE out of the mid mississippi
valley... Reaching southern lower michigan by 12z Tuesday. More
widespread showers and a few storms will develop from SW to ne
tonight as deep moisture surges into our CWA ahead of the surface
low. Instability will be rather unimpressive during this time due to
lake of diurnal contribution... Thus only expect a slight chance of
non-severe storms tonight and mainly for our southern cwa.

Latest near term models have backed off on the timing of the start
of precip... And have shifted the track of the surface low slightly
further south. Have therefore delayed the onset of pops a bit and
have pushed higher pops and QPF further south as well.

Expect another warm august day with high temps a couple of degrees
either side of 80. Low temps tonight will cool back into the low
to mid 60s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
high impact weather potential: potential for low end gale force
gusts into Wednesday morning. Decent rainfall expected through the
day Tuesday, but flooding issues not expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast: sharp troughing and robust surface low
will finally be getting into the region by Tuesday morning. The low
continues to look to pass through the thumb through the day Tuesday.

High pressure will build quickly behind the departing low, sliding
through the ohio valley through the end of the week.

Primary forecast concerns: primary concern is with the low end gale
gust potential into Wednesday morning. Secondary is with regards to
any convective potential during the day Tuesday, which could bring
locally heavier rain totals.

Not a lot has changed in terms of thinking since yesterday. Starting
to see good agreement for this low to pass through the thumb, which
would place the deformation axis into the forecast area. Instability
still looks low, though the euro is still producing a few hundred
j kg, which will aid in a more prolonged stratiform rain. This would
be more beneficial for the currently dry conditions, though still
not enough to close the deficit for many areas (many areas have 60
day deficits over 2", with onaway at -4.34"). Going QPF still looks
good, and the slight increase over yesterday makes sense given the
favorable environment for efficient precip production. We still
remain well under 6 hour ffg, but the areas in the SE CWA where
convection would be more likely have had more rain recently. Will
need to keep an eye out for any convective enhancements in that
area. Will need to watch for potential southward shift with the
track, as that could shift the axis of heavier rains (and the
stronger winds) south as well.

Things still similar for the wind potential as well. A core of
enhanced wind speeds (35kts+ at 925mb and around 45kts at 850mb)
will develop in the tightening pressure gradient as the low exits
and the leading edge of high pressure arrives. There is guidance
disagreement on the overall strength of these winds and how broad
they are, but the signal is there in varying degrees. That said,
mixing should be effective over the lakes with sfc to h8 delta TS as
much as 14c, along with downward motion indicated with positive 1000-
850 omega values accompanying the strongest core of winds. Just how
much translates to the surface remains the big question. We will
certainly be solidly into small craft advisory criteria, and could
approach low end gale gusts. It still looks marginal enough to hold
off on any gale warnings, but they certainly remain a possibility.

Another concern with the winds is with grand traverse bay. Winds
will be northerly which can cause issues there, though they look to
be a few degrees off from true north at any given time. May need to
consider lakeshore flooding product, especially if winds shift a few
degrees to a more true north orientation. It will likely be a rather
choppy day in the bay.

Winds will begin to diminish by Wednesday afternoon as the low lifts
further into quebec and the pressure gradient relaxes. While the
main system rain will be out of the area, the cool h8 air overhead
will have delta TS greater than 13c into Wednesday evening. Expect
to see at minimum lake enhanced clouds out of this setup, perhaps
some lake effect showers. Temperatures with, and behind, this system
on Tuesday and Wednesday will get down in the low to mid 70s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
things will remain relatively quiet through the first part of the
weekend as high pressure moves through the ohio valley. An occluding
low moving across the northern plains could bring some more rain
Saturday Sunday, though much less than with the system Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1149 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
areas of fog stratus will reform overnight, lingering into Monday
morning in some areas. However, cirrus is encroaching on the
region from the west, especially overnight into Monday. That will
keep the fog stratus from being as extensive as it was on previous
nights. mbl is already dealing with some valley fog, but that
should thin out toward daybreak. CIGS will lower during the day
and evening on Monday, ahead of low pressure to our sw. But better
rain chances will hold off until the very end of the TAF period.

Light winds, becoming easterly Monday.

Marine
Issued at 235 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
unseasonably strong area of low pressure will lift NE out of the mid
mississippi valley today... Sliding thru southern lower michigan
tonight and then exiting NE thru SE ontario and into quebec Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria
today and tonight... But will likely strengthen to SCA criteria
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the pressure gradient tightens on the
backside of the departing low. Much better chances of rain will
develop tonight across northern michigan as deep moisture from this
system surges northward into the great lakes region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi30 min SSE 4.1 G 11 72°F 1017.6 hPa
45163 9 mi30 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 73°F 74°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi70 min S 15 G 17 73°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 22 mi30 min S 5.1 G 9.9 71°F 1017.3 hPa
KP58 34 mi19 min Calm 64°F 1016.5 hPa63°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi46 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.8 hPa65°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
SE5
SW3
SW2
SW3
SW3
SE7
SE10
SE10
SE10
SE10
SE12
SE11
SE9
SE7
SE7
S4
SE9
SE8
SE6
S5
S5
G9
SW6
SW5
SW4
1 day
ago
W4
W4
W3
--
E8
G11
E7
SE5
SE7
SE5
SE4
E6
E6
NE5
NE7
NE9
NE9
NE10
NE10
NE9
E8
E9
SE7
SE10
SE9
2 days
ago
W4
SW4
NW7
N11
N8
N8
G11
N10
N10
G13
N11
G15
N12
G15
N10
N11
N10
G13
N10
N12
G15
N11
N9
G12
N7
N7
NW5
NW4
NW6
G9
NW6
NW7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi74 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist60°F59°F97%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4SW5W6S4E6NE4E4W7SE5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3E5CalmN7N7N8NE7NE7NE7N6N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmE5CalmN7N4N7N8
G14
N9N10
G15
N6N10N9N11
G15
N9N7N5N4N3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.