Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Port, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:40 PM EDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 354 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201805250315;;468063 FZUS53 KDTX 241954 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Port, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.93, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 250040
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
840 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Some showers and non-severe storms tonight...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms in eastern upper
michigan. Severe storms are not expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Upper level ridge axis continues to
slowly build into the western great lakes this afternoon.

Downstream surface high pressure remains over the central great
lakes but is beginning to edge off toward the mid atlantic coast.

Surface low pressure is slipping out of canada into the northern
plains upper midwest region with some semblance of a warm front
arcing down through minnesota iowa. In between, southwest return
flow is pulling more warmer, more humid (and unstable) air into
the far western great lakes, curling across the u.P. Into eastern
upper michigan where there is some actual instability this
afternoon. Lower michigan remains somewhat shielded by the lake
with dewpoints running a good 5 to 10 degrees lower, with no
instability.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower and thunderstorm chances
tonight.

First off, batch of showers and some thunderstorms from earlier in
the day continue to slip across upper michigan, toward the eastern
u.P. Convection has been diminishing upon reaching a more stable
environment downstream, but will need to be addressed early on.

Already added shower chances to the forecast for the balance of
the afternoon into early evening.

After that, surface low will ease into the upper midwest as we go
through tonight with some semblance of a cold front slipping into
the northern central plains. Best forcing instability and main
focus for showers and storms will remain upstream, from the
midwest into the central plains. That said, deeper moisture instability
plume will continue to fold into the western great lakes through
the night. Coupled with a modest LLJ developing and nosing across
the upper peninsula, will maintain scattered showers and perhaps
some thunderstorm possibilities across the u.P. Through the
course of the night, and just into the tip of the mitt. No severe
weather anticipated.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Weekend rain chances...

high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms, especially
Friday evening, and in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday
pattern synopsis forecast: high amplitude ridging that has been
building over the eastern CONUS will be dampened by a shortwave that
has been moving out of the desert southwest. This shortwave will
move over the area Friday evening and through the day Saturday. A
second shortwave moving out of the pacific NW will follow closely
behind the first disturbance, moving overhead Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns: primary concern remains the potential for
some scattered thunderstorms over the weekend. Still doesn't look
like a washout by any means, but some afternoon pop-up storms could
cause some inconvenience for the areas they move over. Shear still
looks anemic for any kind of organized severe threat Saturday, with
20kts of 0-6km bulk shear. There are a few areas Sunday with bulk
shear getting into the more preferable 30kt range, but dewpoints
are likely too high in guidance and producing unrealistically high
cape values. Wet bulb zero heights are sub 10kft right now, and mid
level lapse rates will steepen as the trough moves through, so even
pulse type storms could produce some small hail. Will continue to
keep an eye on this and see if things start to look more favorable.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

High pressure returns...

building high pressure will bring another stretch of warm days and
quiet weather heading into mid-week. High temperatures will continue
to run well above normal, with much of northern lower getting into
the 80s. Another chance of showers looks to come later in the week,
right now some time Thursday, as the next disturbance moves overhead.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 840 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
vfr. Llws tonight and Fri morning.

High pressure is starting to slip away from the eastern lakes. Sw
flow will increase just off the surface tonight. This will support
an increase in showers t-storms in upper mi, and perhaps pln will
be grazed by this activity. Otherwise, just mid high clouds here
in northern lower mi. SW winds will be a touch gusty by fri
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
winds will continue to pick up this evening in response to a
tightening pressure gradient as high pressure exits the area and low
pressure approaches. Expect southwesterly winds becoming more
southerly Saturday morning, with speeds in the 15 to 20 knot range
lasting into Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... Am


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 8 mi61 min S 4.1 G 7 74°F 1017.6 hPa
45163 9 mi41 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 61°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 17 mi41 min SSW 15 G 16 75°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.3)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 22 mi61 min SSW 8 G 11 64°F 1016.6 hPa
KP58 34 mi50 min Calm 70°F 1015.9 hPa57°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 43 mi41 min S 5.1 G 5.1 64°F 1016.7 hPa (-1.7)50°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
S2
SW2
S2
SW6
SW8
G11
W9
W7
G10
W7
W8
G11
W5
G8
NW3
N5
NE4
E1
SE5
S10
S12
SE12
G15
S13
S13
SE12
SE10
SE8
S4
1 day
ago
W4
W4
W5
W5
SW3
SW2
W6
W8
G11
W6
G10
W7
W5
G8
W5
G8
W4
G8
NW6
G11
NE7
NE12
NE7
E1
NE3
E3
SE2
SE8
SE8
S4
2 days
ago
E2
G5
SE2
N1
SE5
N4
NE3
NE5
NE2
N2
N1
N4
N5
N7
N11
N8
N7
G10
N9
N11
N11
G14
N12
G16
N13
G18
N10
N6
G11
NW5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI26 mi46 minSSW 310.00 miFair70°F53°F56%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmW7SW6SW6W9SW9W8NW5W7SW3S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW3NW6N6NW8N5N6N3CalmCalmNE4E3CalmCalm
2 days agoE3CalmCalmS3E3E4NE3E3CalmCalmS5CalmNW7NW5NW6NW7N8N10NW4NW11N12N6N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.