Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:26PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1051 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201706272115;;904494 FZUS53 KGRR 271451 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1051 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-272115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 271148
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
748 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
high pressure will provide plenty of sunshine today although
temperatures will remain below normal. It will not be as windy as
yesterday.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night a warm front will push in from
the southwest, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. The best
coverage of storms will be north and west of grand rapids.

The main thunderstorm risk on Thursday is expected to be south of
michigan, but that risk will expand north again on Friday and
Friday night.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 330 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
main focus is on convective potential Wednesday through Thursday.

Models have been consistent in showing a 50 to 60 knot swly low
level jet developing on Wednesday over wisconsin as a shortwave
tracks across the dakotas and minnesota. This setup is expected to
fuel widespread showers and storms over central and northern wisconsin,
which should work into western and northern lower michigan in the
afternoon and evening.

Current model QPF solutions indicate the heaviest rain, on the
nose of the low level jet, should pass to our north. However the
nnw-sse orientation of the thickness pattern may cause the wi
storms to curve propagate more southeastward, at least initially,
which could lead to a heavy rain threat for a time Wednesday night
north of a line from roughly holland to alma. The main axis of
heavy rain lifts toward northern lake huron later Wed night as
the shortwave moves toward lake superior.

It would appear that Thursday may end up being relatively quiet
since the low level jet peels away and we end up with a divergent
low level westerly flow over the area. This pattern usually keeps
most of the area dry, although some diurnal sfc based storms
could pop along and south of i-94 where sfc convergence will exist
along the sfc cold front which slips south through our area in
the morning.

In the near term, today looks rather quiet as the upper trough
begins to slowly lift out and sfc ridging impacts the area. Can't
rule out an isolated shower or two in far eastern sections.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 330 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
active wx is anticipated during the early portion of the long range
fcst period with potential for several rounds of convection. There
is potential for showers and storms Thursday night with a lingering
frontal boundary over the lower great lakes region.

Initially Thursday evening the better chance for convection should
be just south of our area across northern il in oh, but the boundary
will likely move north Thursday night. An increasing nocturnal llj
will also focus some convective development.

A better chance for more widespread convection will come Friday as a
low pressure system and cold front move through. Some strong to
severe storms are possible given lift from the approaching front in
conjunction with ample low level moisture and potential for moderate
instability to develop. Deep layer shear values of 35 to 45 kts are
also favorable for some strong to potentially severe storms.

Larger medium range guidance discrepancies arise for the weekend
into early next week leading to lower confidence in that portion of
the fcst. Initially a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in
behind the cold front for the weekend. However there are some
signals in longer range guidance that the wx pattern could turn more
active again early next week as another system potentially moves in
from the west late Monday or Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 748 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
vfr weather is expected today and tonight with sct-bkn clouds with
bases generally 4000-6000 ft agl. Can't rule out a shower this
afternoon around lan jxn which could briefly lower the vsbys, but
chances of that are pretty low. West winds will become gusty to
20 kts by mid morning but then settle to 5 kts or less this
evening.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Tue jun 27 2017
still some 4 foot waves from south haven south early this morning,
but the trend should be for subsiding waves as high pressure
impacts the region. Small craft advisories and beach hazard
statements will likely be needed again Wednesday as winds increase
considerably from the south.

Hydrology
Issued at 1119 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
river levels are trying to return to normal across the region... With
the chippewa river at mt. Pleasant and pine river at alma above flood
stage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms... Which will develop as
an upper low moves over the state this afternoon... Are not expected
to produce the areal coverage or intensity of precipitation needed
to slow the falling of the stages. Therefore... Expect river levels
to continue to fall steadily over the next 24 hours.

Another round of potentially heavy rainfall will occur later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Deep moisture returns to the
region... And bands of heavy rainfall may occur across central
portions of lower michigan. Rivers in isabella and gratiot
counties are especially vulnerable to excessive rainfall... And
significant rises would likely develop on the pine and chippewa
rivers should the heavy rainfall occur in these basins.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Meade
short term... Meade
long term... Laurens
aviation... Meade
hydrology... Mws
marine... Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 51 mi55 min WSW 8.9 G 11 59°F 1018.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi47 min WSW 2.9 G 7 61°F 53°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi55 min SW 7 G 8.9 60°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi40 minNNW 6 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F44°F45%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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1 day agoW11
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W6SW3W4CalmSW4W5W8W7W6W4W6W5W12
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2 days agoNW16
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W4W4W5W4SW4SW4W9W4W6W7W5W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.