Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:29PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:53 AM EDT (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 10:33PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 338 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201709261515;;946549 FZUS53 KGRR 260738 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-261515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 261113
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
713 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 325 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
one more day of record to near record highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. A cold front comes through the area early tonight with
only scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. This
will lower our high temperatures on Wednesday nearly 25 degrees
from todays values. This will only brings afternoon temperatures
to near normal values. A second cold front on Friday brings in
the truly cold air and lake enhanced rain showers near lake
michigan. Temperatures will by then be chilly. Another warming
trend follows by early next week.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 325 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
the primary question for today is can we get any rain from the
frontal system tonight? It has been 17 days since grand rapids has
had measurable rainfall so we can use the rain. However the way
the front comes through it is really questionable if much in the
way of significant rainfall will occur with this front tonight.

As I have been saying the past few days the upper trough that
pushes the cold front through is actually being sheared out by an
upstream pacific system. The problem is the longwave upper ridge
is still actually in place. So most of the dynamic energy goes
well north into southern canada with this frontal system. The
focus of the 1000 850 moisture transport is over upper michigan
into ontario north of lake huron. The axis of the low level jet is
actually north of us as the front comes through and has nearly
always been the case this year we are in the speed divergence
area of the low level jet (not a good place for significant
convection). Also model sounding show CAPE is limited at best.

There are three things through that none the less favor some
showers, we do get into the right entrance region of the jet
overnight, precipitable water is near 1.75 inches, much above
normal, and there is upper divergence over surface convergence.

So I have increased the pop tonight by about 10 percent do not
expect a widespread rain event with this front.

Behind the front Wednesday into Thursday we have shallow cold air
so expect much cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 325 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
another surge of chilly air will be pushing in with an upper short
wave by Friday. This feature will also bring a decent chance of
showers mostly late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some rain
is better than nothing, but it appears a quarter inch of less will
come with this system.

The chilly air, and slightly below normal temps, that moves in on
Friday will linger through the weekend with daytime highs holding in
the 60s, and nighttime lows inland in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Some patchy frost will be possible both Friday and Saturday nights.

Warm advection commences Sunday night and into Monday as we see
surface and upper ridging sliding in. Highs should be back to a bit
above normal into the 70s for Monday. It should remain dry Friday
night through Monday with the ridging taking back over.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 714 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
yet anotherVFR day ahead. However tonight a cold front comes
through and there is a chance of a thunderstorm, mostly to our
western TAF sites. Behind the cold front ceiling should become
MVFR (that will be toward morning).

Marine
Issued at 325 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday as north
winds of 15 to 25 knots build waves to as high as 6 feet.

Hydrology
Issued at 153 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
rivers are running around normal to much below normal for the time
of year. Meanwhile, the us drought monitor is indicating dry
conditions across southern lower michigan. Rainfall is possible
Tuesday night and Thursday night into Friday but, less than a
quarter of an inch is expected. No river issues are expected into
the weekend.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Jk
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 51 mi74 min SE 8.9 G 12 65°F 1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi54 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 57°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi74 min SE 7 G 8 69°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F91%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5S3CalmCalmS4CalmS6S6S4S3CalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS5CalmS5S4S4S5S6S8S5W3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW5W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.