Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:17PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:40 PM EST (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:39AMMoonset 10:21PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201801161015;;514449 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 191826
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
126 pm est Mon feb 19 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 254 am est Mon feb 19 2018
a low pressure system developing in eastern colorado will track
northeast through the western great lakes region through Tuesday.

Rain showers will be on the increase across the area along with a
few thunderstorms. The rainfall will be heavy at times which could
lead to some flooding. A large area of high pressure will build in
from the west on Wednesday... Drying the airmass out here in
michigan.

Update
Issued at 1036 am est Mon feb 19 2018
no real changes to the going forecast, other than to freshen up
the rain and fog trends for this morning.

Widespread rain shower activity is just south of the area this
morning, but is still poised to move north through this afternoon.

The leading edge of the rain shower activity is north of the main
warm front which sits across central indiana and illinois as of
15z.

The other feature of interest is the somewhat narrow band of locally
dense fog that is just coming up into the i-94 corridor ahead of
the warm front and rain shower activity. We expect this fog to
progress north through the area through this afternoon. With it
being a narrow corridor, likely due to the rain eroding it on the
southern flank, we have opted to hold off on an advisory in
coordination with surrounding offices. Instead we have issued a
special weather statement to heighten awareness a bit.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 254 am est Mon feb 19 2018
overall the pattern has not changed much... Still supportive of
several rounds of heavy rain through Tuesday night. Thus no major
changes to the forecast at this time. Will keep the flood watch as
is.

Elevated showers and thunderstorms were tracking through illinois
and indiana. These may clip the far southern zones... Where I did
add the potential for a morning storm. Overall not much QPF is
forecasted for the morning. Morning temperatures were starting
out near freezing for interior parts of lower mi... So will
maintain a low risk for freezing rain.

As the gulf moisture continues to stream this afternoon and
evening... The showers will pick up in coverage and intensity.

Elevated instability will be around... So will maintain the risk
for a few thunderstorms. Fog should be on the increase as
well... Especially tonight.

For Tuesday into Tuesday night... Very high pwat values around the
region support rain showers heavy at times. The presence of elevated
instability suggests a few storms as well. The deep southwest
flow does support some training of the showers and storms. Where
that does set up will likely be where the higher impacts occur.

Highest QPF values are forecasted to be south of a muskegon to
alma line. Given the convective nature... There is still
uncertainty on the exact amount and location of the heaviest
rain. The highly anomalous moist pattern is still supportive of a
flood watch for the entire region.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 254 am est Mon feb 19 2018
high pressure will build into the northern great lakes region
Wednesday night through Thursday and bring fair wx with near normal
temperatures. A low pressure system moving will move northeast and
bring potential for a mix of light pcpn Thursday night into Friday
before thermal profiles moderate sufficiently enough for pcpn to
transition to plain rain showers later in the day Friday.

A gradual moderating trend of temperatures is forecast Friday
through the weekend and temps by the weekend will average around 10
to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. High temperatures
will reach well into the 40's this weekend. Another high pressure
ridge will build in to briefly bring fair weather before the next
system brings potential for another mixed pcpn event late Saturday
into Sunday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1243 pm est Mon feb 19 2018
widespread lifr to low-end ifr conditions, with occasional dips
to vlifr, are expected to prevail through the TAF period as an
approaching low pressure system surges warmer air and moisture
into the area. Rounds of rainfall will lift up through lower
michigan, and may become heavy at times through Tuesday night.

Scattered showers will persist through the afternoon before the
next round of widespread rain lifts through the area this
evening.

Strong winds of 45-55 knots above 1500 feet will create
low-level wind shear conditions this evening through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will also be possible this evening through Tuesday,
however timing and location are too uncertain to detail in taf
forecast at this time.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm est Sun feb 18 2018
as a strong area of high pressure sets up over the southeast u.S., a
solid stream of gulf moisture is expected to flow northward into the
great lakes. Guidance continues to suggest rainfall from Monday
through Wednesday with periods of heavy rain possible.

Widespread rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches are expected,
with locally with excessive amounts of over 3 inches, especially
from southwest michigan to saginaw bay. Coupled with recent
snowmelt, a frozen ground, and continued high river levels, rainfall
will result in bankfull streams and rivers. Some locations are
looking at minor flooding, especially those immediately near and
adjacent to rivers.

A positive light in all of this is that temperatures in the 50s and
60s will reduce the presence of ice on rivers. High water flows are
likely to flush waterways, freeing up streams and preventing
immediate concern for ice jams, if temperatures were to return to
well below freezing territory in the future.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for miz037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Lm... None.

Update... Njj
synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... Laurens
aviation... Hlo
hydrology... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 51 mi60 min NNE 8 G 8.9 35°F 1012.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi40 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 36°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi60 min N 5.1 G 6 35°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi45 minE 55.00 miOvercast with Haze39°F33°F83%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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----S6--Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6NE3SE4
1 day agoSW9SW6SW5SW8SW5SW3SW5W8W10
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2 days agoW14
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W7NW9W6W3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S6SW3SW7W10
G16
SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.