Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:26PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:38 PM EDT (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 337 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Patchy fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers until midday, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering east toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201806240315;;998750 FZUS53 KGRR 231937 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-240315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 231929
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
latest update...

short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 1223 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
locally heavy rainfall is possible late tonight primarily near
route 10. Not all areas will get rain tonight. A few leftover
showers are possible on Sunday, then dry conditions should prevail
Monday. Unsettled weather looks likely Tuesday into early
Wednesday with some showers and thunderstorms moving into the
region. Heat may build back into the area by the end of the week
and weekend.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
the challange tonight is the potential for heavy rain over our
northern CWA from around midnight until around 9 am Sunday. After
that we get a push of canadian polar air that will clear the sky
and provide a one more day of cooler than normal temperatures.

I am concerened about the potential for heavy rainfall tonight
(mostly after midnight) over our northern cwa. This is one of
those trowal lift event sort of rainfalls. A upper wave, that is
currently over iowa, tracks east and as it comes under the
northern stream system, tried to close off at mid levels. That
resutls in an area of isentropic ascent between muskegon and
frankfort. The precipitable water values are around 1.5 inches
which is on the high side of normal but not extreme. Model sounds
are classic for heavy rain through, saturated from the near the
surface to over 500 mb with weak CAPE through a deep layer. The
1000 850 moisture tranpsort is not extreme but it does show the
a signicature over our northern cwa. All of the hi-res models
have been showing this all shift today. The href has as much as 5"
in places and all of the other hi-res have areas of 1 to 2 inches
between midnight and about 9 am. So I have increased the QPF to
around an inch up north and coodinated with wpc and apx on this
event. I would expect some localized flooding Sunday morning.

Once this system moves out we get a push of canadian polar air
Sunday night into Monday. We could see some afternoon convection
Sunday afternoon inland. After that skies should clear at night
and remain mostly clear Monday. It will be cool with highs in the
70s.

Long term (Tuesday through Saturday)
issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
there are 2 main weather stories in the long term. The first the the
threat of shower and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame and the second being the developing heat late in the work week
into the weekend.

The upper low currently in the northern rockies will spin east and
move into wisconsin on Tuesday and through michigan on Wednesday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist with this system
from Monday night through Wednesday. Pwat values will be rather high
as a southerly flow off of the gulf will be drawn northward. The gfs
has pwat values in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range through this period,
so heavy rain is certainly likely. Severe storms are possible from
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a mid level jet core rotates through
the area on the south side of the upper low.

The showers and storms will move east on Wednesday and leave mainly
dry weather through the end of the work week into next weekend. A
building ridge overhead will bring increasing heat. 90s is looking
more and more likely in the Friday and Saturday time frame. 850mb
temps rise into the 21 to 23c range which should ensure 90s. The gfs
even has 850mb temps to 24-25c. If we actually got that warm that
could bring triple digit heat into play. A long way to go yet, but
gfs and ECMWF mos temps are nudging upward. Bottom line, its going
to get hot.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 159 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
main concern with the tafs the next 24 hours are the lower
ceilings that are lifting across the area at this time and the
redevelopment of them tonight. The ifr and lower conditions that
were in place this morning have lifted to MVFR is most areas at
18z. A further lifting should take place this afternoon toVFR by
evening. An isolated shower is possible away from lake michigan
this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, lower ceilings will gradually develop once again from
north to south. MVFR and even ifr conditions will spread back into
the TAF sites after 05z and continue into Sunday morning. A few
more showers may affect the TAF sites on Sunday morning, but the
heavier rain should remain across central lower michigan. Some
light fog is possible tonight as well.

Marine
Issued at 329 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
no threat of strong winds or high waves over the next 2 days. This
is expected to change tueday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1223 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
with locally heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, most
locations along the kalamazoo river are running near to above
normal for late june. The grand river basin is running mainly near
normal, with the muskegon river running near normal. Expected
rainfall over the next 24 hours will be highest across the
muskegon river basin, where flows are lower with respect to normal
than other basins. Flooding is not expected.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, precipitable water values surge toward
the 1.8"-2.0" range. Any convection that develops could produce
locally heavy rainfall once again. Areas that currently have
saturated soils due to significant rains in recent days may be
prone to localized flooding if storms materialize.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Hoving
short term... Wdm
long term... Duke
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi51 min NNW 4.1 G 6 68°F 59°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi59 min N 8 G 11 63°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi44 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast71°F61°F74%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7E6E4E7NE3CalmNE3CalmE4CalmNE3CalmCalmNW3N4N4NE3CalmE4CalmSE5S6S5
1 day agoE8E5E5E3E3E3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmE7E7E5NE5E10
G18
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2 days agoSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E8E11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.