Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 10, 2018 3:44 AM EST (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 246 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet this morning building to 3 to 5 feet by late afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late morning.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201812101630;;570260 FZUS53 KGRR 100746 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 246 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-101630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 100741
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
241 am est Mon dec 10 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 234 am est Mon dec 10 2018
no major changes were made to the forecast. The main points
include:
- confidence is low on whether the low-level clouds will break
today. The best chance of seeing some Sun will be across sw
lower michigan.

- a weakening clipper system will offer up to 1" of snow Wednesday
night Thursday morning with minimal impacts expected. Note that
this forecast package features slightly less QPF and snow.

- low confidence continues with a potential end-of-week storm, but
our hunch is we'll stay dry.

Discussion (today through next Sunday)
issued at 234 am est Mon dec 10 2018
a strong subsidence inversion at ~890 mb (as captured nicely by the
00z apx raob) continues to trap a lake-induced stratus deck this
morning rooted along the nose of a subtle southward-moving 925 mb
"cool" front. Thanks to the blanket of clouds above, surface
temperatures this morning are warmer than last with most places
currently in the mid 20s. Winds are light and variable, except for
a narrow region of northerly flow beneath the aforementioned
frontal boundary.

The 00z suite of model guidance suggests that the clouds will clear
from west to east after daybreak with most of lower michigan seeing
sunny skies by noon. While the pocket of -6 to -8 c 925 mb
temperatures that has been feeding the lake-induced
instability cloud cover will push eastward as winds slowly back
southwest today, we're not sold on the idea of the status deck
making a quick get-away. Indeed, we'll favor the overcast skies
turning broken this morning, and then perhaps scattered this
afternoon with the best shot of seeing the Sun across southwestern
portions of lower michigan (but no guarantees). Regardless of
whether they break this afternoon, low- level cloud cover will
increase (if not just become thicker) after dark tonight and
persist through Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough and associated
cooler 925 850 mb air swings southeast across the great lakes.

Wednesday night, a weakening clipper system will swing through lower
michigan with perhaps 0.05-0.1" of QPF fluffing up to an inch of
snow. The timing of the system (e.G. Overnight) coupled with the
limited amount of QPF suggests that minimal impacts can
be expected, though a shift in timing may mean otherwise.

Attention then turns to the potential for a more organized system
toward the end of the week. As a shortwave trough digs to the four
corners region Wednesday night, lee cyclogenesis is expected to
commence with a low pressure system tracking through the southern
plains Thursday. From that point on is still a big question mark
owing to the potential interaction (or lack thereof) of the
aforementioned trough with a secondary northern stream wave. Our
hunch is that the system will follow a similar track to the storm
that recently brought winter weather to the southeastern united
states keeping the brunt of precipitation, heavy at least, south and
east of lower michigan. The northern wave may still bring a shot of
precipitation locally though moisture transport will probably be
disrupted thanks to the southern system (which may have quite a bit
of moisture-hogging convection, anyway). So, the bottom line is
we'll continue to supply a watchful eye.

Next weekend and beyond, model ensemble guidance suggests a
continuation of relatively quiet conditions with normal to slightly
above-normal temperatures. There does appear to be a window where
partly cloudy (to dare we say partly sunny?) skies are possible this
weekend especially considering southwesterly flow aloft warm 850 mb
temperatures (e.G. Lake michigan won't be able to pack a surprise
this time around). However, a weak cold front due early next week
will allow for a return of cloudy conditions. Finally, there's a
signal that we may return to a more wintry pattern toward the end of
next week, perhaps right in time for the holidays.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1205 am est Mon dec 10 2018
low-level clouds have once again spread across all TAF sites with
cigs generally between 700-900 ft except at mkg where 2000 ft
cigs continue. Note that CIGS may lower to around 500 ft at
azo btl jxn before sunrise. Model guidance continues to suggest
that the low-level clouds will rapidly mix away from west to east
toward daybreak with all TAF sites experiencing skc by 18z, but i
am not as optimistic. As such, I will transition ovc to bkn around
the 18z time frame, and then bkn to sct during the 202 21z time
frame. It is possible the broken cloud deck will stubbornly
persist through all day Monday. There is higher confidence,
however, that the CIGS will rise to 2500 ft or so even if the
clouds persist. Winds will remain light and westerly through much
of the TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 234 am est Mon dec 10 2018
southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon in
tandem with waves of 4-6 feet leading to hazardous conditions to
small crafts. Winds and waves will abate Tuesday afternoon with
relatively calm conditions expected through the remainder of the
week.

Hydrology
Issued at 945 am est Sun dec 9 2018
river levels are running a little above normal for the time of year,
but are mostly falling. Ice build up seems to be occuring on the
looking glass river near eagle. High temperatures over the next week
will reach into the 30s and will slowly melt the snow on the ground
and should improve conditions near eagle. Rain and or snow is
possible Thursday into Friday night, but should not cause much
reaction from the rivers. There is little concern of flooding and
river levels should slowly fall through the week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Tuesday for lmz848-849.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Tuesday for lmz844>847.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... 63
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 6 33°F 24°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi65 min WNW 11 G 12 33°F 1024 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi50 minN 07.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW5W5W7W7W10W7W11NW8NW8W4W4W7W4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoW4W4NW4NW4W3W5NW7NW7NW6W4NW6W4W5W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S3W5W10
G15
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W10W4W5W4W5NW5W3W3W6W5W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.