Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reed City, MI

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Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 300 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until midday, then partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201809190315;;843549 FZUS53 KGRR 181900 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed City, MI
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location: 43.93, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181856
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight through
Wednesday afternoon. A warm front will lift northward across our
area Wednesday night and bring a much better chance for widespread
thunderstorms late Wednesday night into early Thursday. A cold
front moving in from the west will bring more thunderstorms
Thursday night. Some severe storms with damaging winds and hail
and heavy rain are possible early Thursday and then again Thursday
night. A much cooler and drier airmass will move in behind that
system for Friday through the weekend.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
primary short term fcst concerns involve determining potential for
convection through the short term fcst period.

A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm will continue to
develop late this afternoon into this evening along and south of the
weakening cold front that is moving in from the north and is located
near the i-96 corridor attm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop Wednesday as elevated instability begins to increase
to the north of the warm front.

A much better chance for widespread rain and convection will come
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the warm front
lifts to the north and elevated instability ramps up signficantly
north of that boundary.

Convection will also develop on the nose of a 30-35 kt LLJ off to
our west Wednesday night and then roll east along the boundary
into our area. The strongest convection will contain heavy rain
and potentially hail and gusty winds. A few marginally severe
storms are possible overnight.

On Thursday after early morning convection clears out it will
become very warm and humid as the warm front moves north of our
fcst area. Increasing instability out ahead of the approaching
cold front in conjunction with strong deep layer shear and lift
from the approaching front with ample low level moisture in place
will set the stage for convective development Thursday night.

Strongest convection will bring potential for damaging wind gusts
and large hail and heavy rain. There is also potential for an
isolated tornado given ample deep layer shear and favorable speed
and directional wind shear along with low LCL heights. However
the severe wx threat is mitigated by unfavorable cold frontal
timing as well as lack of PVA or favorable upper level dynamics.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
a few showers and storms will linger Friday morning until fropa.

After FROPA occurs we expect some instability showers to develop
in the afternoon and evening before high pressure builds in to
bring fair wx Saturday. Temps will average pretty close to normal
for this time of year late in the weekend into early next weekend
as the upper pattern becomes very zonal before ridging begins to
amplify over the eastern CONUS again by Tuesday Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1224 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
primarilyVFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through
early Wednesday afternoon. There is limited potential for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm at just about any time during the
next 24 hours. However there is not enough potential to warrant
mention in any of the terminal forecasts at this time.

Some patchy fog may develop during the early morning hours
Wednesday. However fog potential is mitigated by the expectation
that some low to mid level cloud cover will linger overnight that
would inhibit fog development.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
wave heights of around 1 to 3 feet are forecast tonight and
Wednesday and winds will become offshore tonight through
Wednesday. Strong southerly winds will develop Thursday by which
time a small craft advisory will be required through Friday.

Winds could potentially reach gale force Thursday night and
Friday.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
river levels remain steady following mostly dry weather over the
past week and a half. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday evening will be isolated to scattered. Although individual
storms may contain heavy rain, flooding is not anticipated through
Wednesday evening.

A higher coverage of rain and thunderstorms is expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This round looks to bring
between one-half inch and one inch of rain to areas near and north
of a line from holland to grand rapids to mt pleasant. Local totals
will be higher in thunderstorms, which will be capable of producing
rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour. There looks to be
relative lull in activity Thursday afternoon before another round of
showers and thunderstorms moves through the area Thursday night into
early Friday morning. This round will also have the potential
produce rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour.

The quick-hitting nature of these rounds of heavy rain will be more
likely to cause localized flooding on roads, in low-lying areas, and
along small creeks, than flooding of streams and rivers. Drier
weather is expected Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Laurens
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi37 min N 6 G 11 64°F 56°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 56 mi45 min NNE 11 G 15 64°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Big Rapids, Roben-Hood Airport, MI15 mi30 minNW 1110.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from RQB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3W4N3CalmCalmCalmN3NW4N6W3N6N9NW13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW6W5NW3W5CalmW8
2 days agoE4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE9SE5SE7S6S6S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.