Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berlin, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:24PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 1:21 AM CST (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 4:43AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 106 Am Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Rest of tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots veering west with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers, light freezing rain and snow showers through around midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight, then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ643 Expires:201811201000;;574431 FZUS53 KMKX 200706 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-201000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berlin, WI
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location: 43.93, -89     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 200542
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1142 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018

Update A weak upper trough and a sfc trough has resulted in
steady light snow over far SE wi late this evening. This will
gradually shift south but lake effect snow will follow. A few
hours of light lake effect snow is expected over the ERN portions
of the lake counties with best chances from mke to enw from 06z-
10z. Any snow accums will remain under one half inch. The stratus
clouds will scatter for Tue with clouds increasing once again late
in the day as low pressure moves across the NRN great lakes.

Aviation(06z tafs) Cigs of 2500-3500 feet will prevail tnt. A
few hours of light lake effect snow is expected over the far ern
sections of the lake counties, which would affect mke and enw. The
stratus clouds will decrease from north to south across SRN wi
from 10-14z.VFR conditions will then prevail the remainder of
the day but more MVFR CIGS could occur Tue nt as another cold
front moves through the region.

Prev discussion (issued 905 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018)
update... The forecast is on track for tonight and Tuesday.

Marine... Brisk nly winds in the wake of a cold front will
prevail tonight over the open lake and nearshore waters. The winds
will become lighter by Tuesday morning but back to brisk wly winds
by late afternoon. Brisk wly winds will then veer nwly after
midnight due to the passage of another cold front. Brief gale
force winds are possible Tue nt.

A small craft advisory is in effect through 9 am Tue for brisk nly
winds and 3 to 6 foot waves. Another small craft advisory will
likely be needed for late Tue afternoon through Tue nt.

Prev discussion... (issued 636 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018)
update... A weak upper trough will pass tnt while the cold front
has already passed. A sfc trough and lake effect snow in the form
of a mesovortex will then move swd over lake mi this evening into
the overnight. A few hours or less of light lake effect snow is
expected over the ERN portions of the lake counties with best
chances from mke to enw from 05z-10z. Any snow accums will remain
under one half inch. The stratus clouds will scatter for Tue with
clouds increasing once again late in the day as low pressure moves
across the NRN great lakes.

Aviation(00z tafs)... CIGS of 2500-3500 feet will prevail tnt. A
few hours of light lake effect snow is expected over the far ern
sections of the lake counties, which would affect mke and enw. The
stratus clouds will decrease from north to south across SRN wi
from 09-12z.VFR conditions will then prevail the remainder of
the day but more MVFR CIGS could occur Tue nt as another cold
front moves through the region.

Prev discussion... (issued 252 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018)
discussion...

tonight and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Northerly winds are developing across far northern lake michigan
this afternoon as a result of a surface low tracking over the
area. The convergent winds are creating a band of precip that will
gradually take shape into a lake effect meso vortex and slide down
the long axis of the lake. The exact path of this vortex is
uncertain, but the latest hrrr model keeps it toward the east side
until it reaches the south third. Expect a little extra low level
forcing convergence along the wind shift to the north-northeast as
well, so we are keeping the forecast for a period of snow showers
over the southeast wi lakeshore counties this evening, even though
the center of that meso vortex will probably remain offshore.

Will pass
tnt while the cold front has already passed. A sfc trough and
lake effect snow in the form of a mesovortex will then move swd
over lake mi this evening into the overnight.

This will be a quick-hitting, weaker-end lake effect snow event
for the lakeshore counties this evening through early morning
hours with snow lasting up to 3 hours. The start time should be
around 8 pm near sheboygan, 10 pm near milwaukee, and midnight
near kenosha. There will be gusty north-northeast winds during
this event, so expect reduced visibility with blowing snow.

Accumulation will be light, less than a half inch.

Clouds may scatter out for a short period of time Tuesday morning
as winds turn back to the northwest and weaken with high pressure
spreading in. Diurnal cumulus clouds will fill back in by late
morning and persist through much of the day. Look for westerly
winds to increase during the afternoon in response to a clipper
system tracking across lake superior. MAX temperatures will be a
notch cooler than today.

Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
cold front proggd to swing through with potential for some snow
showers. The canadian solution shows some QPF while the GFS nam
ecmwf are dry. Current forecast is dry for this period and will
continue to leave as is. Could see where a small pop or some
flurries may be needed if a wetter scenario becomes the more
prevalent solution.

Wednesday through Thursday night - confidence... Medium
high pressure ridge axis settles in on Wednesday and then shifts to
the east Wednesday night through Thursday night. This will set up
a return flow that will eventually bring a milder airmass into the
area. However the 850 925 baroclinic zone does't get shoved to the
northeast until Thursday night. In fact the latest NAM generates qpf
on thanksgiving day with the increasing WAA regime. NAM bufkit shows
this is very low level moisture and often overdoes this. There is
plenty of dry air upstairs on both the NAM and GFS so for now ill
elect keep thanksgiving dry. The better push of milder temps arrives
Thursday night as a sswly 40-45 knot LLJ brings 925 temps into
the single digits celsius. Low level thermal ridging will become
established.

Friday and Saturday - confidence... Medium
mid level flow becomes southwest with pattern becoming more active.

A weakening surface trough will be approaching and models have been
pretty consistent in showing some showers associated with this but
timing is off. The GFS has been the consistently faster solution
with the ECMWF showing a much slower look. It appears the better
consensus for rain would be Friday night. Wiwill pass
tnt while the cold front has already passed. A sfc trough and
lake effect snow in the form of a mesovortex will then move swd
over lake mi this evening into the overnight. Th the ECMWF showing
stronger cyclogenesis within the ohio valley there is a longer
duration precip potential shown by this model. Meanwhile the gfs
moves this rain out quicker but starts to return more
frontogenetically induced rain for Saturday afternoon with another
low taking shape in the central plains. So two different scenarios
that would prolong rain chances for Saturday.

Saturday night through Monday - confidence... Low to medium
will be watching storm track, timing and intensity trends for this
period. One thing all models have come into agreement on at the
moment is cyclogenesis but there are still some differences as
would be expected this far out. Will be interesting to see how the
models continue to handle this low as the week moves along and
especially when the system actually comes onshore and gets better
sampled. Long ways off so stay tuned.

Aviation(21z tafs)... MVFR ceilings currently over northeast wi will
slide into east central and southeast wi this evening. An area of
lake effect snow will make its way down the lake michigan shoreline,
so expect a 3 hr period of light snow and MVFR ceilings for the
lakeshore counties. Higher confidence in snow reaching land areas
is from milwaukee south, per the latest high resolution models.

Less than a half inch accumulation is expected. Winds will be
gusty out of the north- northeast during the highest snowfall
rates. We will have a better idea about snowfall rates once we can
see it develop on radar over the north half of lake michigan late
this afternoon.

Look for skies to scatter out during the morning hours in the wake
of the weak overnight system. Diurnal cumulus clouds (vfr) are
expected through much of the day.

Marine...

nearshore... Northerly wind gusts rushing down lake michigan this
evening will reach small craft advisory criteria criteria for
several hours. It will take a few more hours for waves to subside,
so the advisory GOES into Tuesday morning.

Another period of higher wind gusts out of the southwest is
expected late Tuesday afternoon through later Tuesday night.

Open lake... Northerly wind gusts up to 30 kt are expected over
the open lake beginning this afternoon over the north half and the
evening over the south half.

West-southwest gusts up to 30 knots seem likely Tuesday afternoon
and night. Gale force southerly winds may impact the area later
Thursday into Friday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Tuesday for lmz643>646.

Update... Gehring
tonight Tuesday and aviation marine... Cronce
Tuesday night through Monday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 70 mi22 min NNW 13 G 16 28°F 1021.5 hPa (+1.0)21°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 71 mi42 min NNW 8.9 G 18 28°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI18 mi26 minWNW 39.00 miLight Snow24°F19°F81%1025 hPa
Wittman Regional Airport, WI23 mi29 minN 710.00 miOvercast25°F16°F69%1023 hPa

Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4CalmS4--W5W4W5NW5NW7NW6NW8N9N8NW3NW4N3N9N5N6N5CalmCalmNW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W6W10SW12--SW12W10W10SW8SW6SW5SW4SW4SW5SW7--S4--
2 days agoN4N5N5NW4--N5N6--N9N8N7N7W7NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.