Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:23AM||Sunset 8:28PM||Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:48 PM CDT (01:48 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 8:31AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westfield, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmkx 230028 aaa|
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
728 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
Showers with isolated thunder have developed generally as
expected... Except about 1-2 hours early. Not seeing much
lightning so far. Instability isn't anticipated to be very high,
with the higher amounts just clipping the southeast. Seems model
dewpoints are a bit overdone currently across southern wisconsin
too, which is contributing to even less instability than the
models are suggesting. Shear is very impressive though, so will
keep a close eye on storms. Definitely can't rule out a severe
Main change to precip chances this evening was to refine the
gradient, cutting back on pops across the NW half of the forecast
area. Also sped up the timing a tad based on trends.
Showers and a few storms are expected this evening into early
tonight across the southeast forecast area. Areas along and
northwest of a line from darlington to madison to sheboygan will
likely remain dry. Could see a storm or two approach severe levels
this evening. Briefly lower ceilings and visibilities will be
possible with any moderate to heavy rain.
Skies will then clear out tonight, with mostly sunny skies likely
Thursday under high pressure.
Decided to extend the small craft advisory until midnight given
lingering gusty south to southwest winds. Cancelled the dense fog
advisory given webcams and satellite imagery. Some fog will be
possible later this evening and into tonight across the lake as
higher dewpoints arrive. Any fog that develops could become dense.
Westerly winds could approach small craft advisory levels on
Thursday. Winds and waves then look generally on the lighter side
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Prev discussion (issued 250 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019)
tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.
Gusty south winds will diminish rapidly early this evening. Fog
will continue to tickle the lakeshore as warm, moist air continues
to flow across the shore areas. The fog should thin and get pushed
out over the lake later tonight when winds turn to the southwest.
Moderate instability along with strong low level and bulk shear
ahead of an approaching weak low pressure trof convergence wl get
some lift enhancement from the right entrance region of an upper
jet. Mid-layer q-vector convergence does increase to 10-20 units
this evening indicating the enhanced synoptic lift. These
features are expected to trigger scattered convection across the
central and east from late this afternoon through the evening. Can
not rule out a few strong to severe storms due to the strong
shear and CAPE up to 1000 j kg. Enhanced lift moves off to the
east later tonight ending the convection threat. Warm front should
be mostly north of the area, but may arc down into the sheboygan
county area into the evening. In addition, NAM is showing a period
of low level frontogenetical forcing as weak convergence moves
through this evening.
Sharp short-wave ridging at the mid-levels and an influx of drier
air will result in a pleasant but breezy day on Thursday. Lot of
sunshine and seasonal temps.|
Thursday night through Saturday night - confidence... Medium
an unsettled period is expected. Later Thursday night we should
start to see the influence of low level warm air advection take
hold. This will be ahead of low pressure in the northern plains.
The lingering influence of high pressure may end up keeping parts
of the east dry. Mid level flow will also turn more west southwest
as ridge axis shifts east. This will help lead to greater rain
chances during the day Friday and into Friday evening. This will
also be when low level warm moist advection will be heightened. A
trailing cool front may not move as fast as the ECMWF is implying
given the steering flow. The front could hang around with waves
of energy riding along the boundary keeping shra tsra chances
going well into Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday night - confidence... Medium
some consensus that a break in the rain would occur this period.
Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold and the boundary may end up
shifting far enough south to allow the focus to take rain with
it. The 12z GFS suggests the break will not be for long though as
a return low level warm air advection resumes Sunday night
bringing precip back to the area. Meanwhile the 00z ECMWF keeps
things dry Sunday night.
Monday through Wednesday - confidence... Low to medium
looks like a continued unsettled period with potential for a few
rounds of showers storms as meandering frontal boundary meanders
the upper midwest. The mid upper level flow will be largely
southwest which favors pockets of energy riding northeast within
this flow. Main trough could eject northeast towards the end of
the period. Will use blended temps pops.
Aviation(21z tafs)... As low level winds continue to veer to the
south, expect the remaining areas of low clouds and fog closer to
lake michigan to thin and dissipate. Other patchy MVFR ceilings
should lift toVFR this afternoon. Still expect scattered showers
and storms to develop late afternoon and evening and affect eastern
areas with lower visibilities.VFR conditions return later tonight
Marine... Dense fog will continue to be a threat over the nearshore
and open waters tonight until winds turn to the west to southwest
and drier air spreads across lake michigan later tonight into Thursday
morning. A dense fog advisory remains in effect north of north point
light, but the fog is beginning to thin from north point light to
port washington. May be able to cancel this part of the advisory
late this afternoon, but more fog may develop this evening. Gusty
southeast to south winds will diminish during the early evening
with subsiding wave heights. Hence wl continue small craft advisory
for the nearshore waters until 7 pm. Gusty west winds are expected
on Thursday and will have gusts of 20 to 22 knots at times, getting
close to small craft advisory levels.
Beaches... Gusty south to southeast winds will continue through
the late afternoon, with gusts at the shore up to 25 to 30 mph.
These gusty winds will keep waves elevated, so high swim risk threat
will continue and beach hazards will remain in effect until 7 pm.
Mkx watches warnings advisories
Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight cdt tonight for lmz643>646.
tonight Thursday aviation marine beaches... mbk
Thursday night through Wednesday... Collar
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI||93 mi||48 min||S 17 G 18||50°F||1008.2 hPa (-0.0)||47°F|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI||10 mi||52 min||SSW 11 G 17||10.00 mi||Thunderstorm||73°F||54°F||51%||1008.9 hPa|
Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E||NE||NE||E||E||E|
|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||N|
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Weather Map and Satellite Images(on/off)  HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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