Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:28PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:48 PM CDT (01:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 705 Pm Cdt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight cdt tonight...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ643 Expires:201905230400;;300213 FZUS53 KMKX 230005 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-230400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westfield, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.93, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 230028 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
728 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Update
Showers with isolated thunder have developed generally as
expected... Except about 1-2 hours early. Not seeing much
lightning so far. Instability isn't anticipated to be very high,
with the higher amounts just clipping the southeast. Seems model
dewpoints are a bit overdone currently across southern wisconsin
too, which is contributing to even less instability than the
models are suggesting. Shear is very impressive though, so will
keep a close eye on storms. Definitely can't rule out a severe
threat.

Main change to precip chances this evening was to refine the
gradient, cutting back on pops across the NW half of the forecast
area. Also sped up the timing a tad based on trends.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Showers and a few storms are expected this evening into early
tonight across the southeast forecast area. Areas along and
northwest of a line from darlington to madison to sheboygan will
likely remain dry. Could see a storm or two approach severe levels
this evening. Briefly lower ceilings and visibilities will be
possible with any moderate to heavy rain.

Skies will then clear out tonight, with mostly sunny skies likely
Thursday under high pressure.

Marine
Decided to extend the small craft advisory until midnight given
lingering gusty south to southwest winds. Cancelled the dense fog
advisory given webcams and satellite imagery. Some fog will be
possible later this evening and into tonight across the lake as
higher dewpoints arrive. Any fog that develops could become dense.

Westerly winds could approach small craft advisory levels on
Thursday. Winds and waves then look generally on the lighter side
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Prev discussion (issued 250 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019)
discussion...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Gusty south winds will diminish rapidly early this evening. Fog
will continue to tickle the lakeshore as warm, moist air continues
to flow across the shore areas. The fog should thin and get pushed
out over the lake later tonight when winds turn to the southwest.

Moderate instability along with strong low level and bulk shear
ahead of an approaching weak low pressure trof convergence wl get
some lift enhancement from the right entrance region of an upper
jet. Mid-layer q-vector convergence does increase to 10-20 units
this evening indicating the enhanced synoptic lift. These
features are expected to trigger scattered convection across the
central and east from late this afternoon through the evening. Can
not rule out a few strong to severe storms due to the strong
shear and CAPE up to 1000 j kg. Enhanced lift moves off to the
east later tonight ending the convection threat. Warm front should
be mostly north of the area, but may arc down into the sheboygan
county area into the evening. In addition, NAM is showing a period
of low level frontogenetical forcing as weak convergence moves
through this evening.

Sharp short-wave ridging at the mid-levels and an influx of drier
air will result in a pleasant but breezy day on Thursday. Lot of
sunshine and seasonal temps.

Thursday night through Saturday night - confidence... Medium
an unsettled period is expected. Later Thursday night we should
start to see the influence of low level warm air advection take
hold. This will be ahead of low pressure in the northern plains.

The lingering influence of high pressure may end up keeping parts
of the east dry. Mid level flow will also turn more west southwest
as ridge axis shifts east. This will help lead to greater rain
chances during the day Friday and into Friday evening. This will
also be when low level warm moist advection will be heightened. A
trailing cool front may not move as fast as the ECMWF is implying
given the steering flow. The front could hang around with waves
of energy riding along the boundary keeping shra tsra chances
going well into Saturday evening.

Sunday and Sunday night - confidence... Medium
some consensus that a break in the rain would occur this period.

Low level anticyclonic flow takes hold and the boundary may end up
shifting far enough south to allow the focus to take rain with
it. The 12z GFS suggests the break will not be for long though as
a return low level warm air advection resumes Sunday night
bringing precip back to the area. Meanwhile the 00z ECMWF keeps
things dry Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday - confidence... Low to medium
looks like a continued unsettled period with potential for a few
rounds of showers storms as meandering frontal boundary meanders
the upper midwest. The mid upper level flow will be largely
southwest which favors pockets of energy riding northeast within
this flow. Main trough could eject northeast towards the end of
the period. Will use blended temps pops.

Aviation(21z tafs)... As low level winds continue to veer to the
south, expect the remaining areas of low clouds and fog closer to
lake michigan to thin and dissipate. Other patchy MVFR ceilings
should lift toVFR this afternoon. Still expect scattered showers
and storms to develop late afternoon and evening and affect eastern
areas with lower visibilities.VFR conditions return later tonight
and Thursday.

Marine... Dense fog will continue to be a threat over the nearshore
and open waters tonight until winds turn to the west to southwest
and drier air spreads across lake michigan later tonight into Thursday
morning. A dense fog advisory remains in effect north of north point
light, but the fog is beginning to thin from north point light to
port washington. May be able to cancel this part of the advisory
late this afternoon, but more fog may develop this evening. Gusty
southeast to south winds will diminish during the early evening
with subsiding wave heights. Hence wl continue small craft advisory
for the nearshore waters until 7 pm. Gusty west winds are expected
on Thursday and will have gusts of 20 to 22 knots at times, getting
close to small craft advisory levels.

Beaches... Gusty south to southeast winds will continue through
the late afternoon, with gusts at the shore up to 25 to 30 mph.

These gusty winds will keep waves elevated, so high swim risk threat
will continue and beach hazards will remain in effect until 7 pm.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight cdt tonight for lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
tonight Thursday aviation marine beaches... mbk
Thursday night through Wednesday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 93 mi48 min S 17 G 18 50°F 1008.2 hPa (-0.0)47°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI10 mi52 minSSW 11 G 1710.00 miThunderstorm73°F54°F51%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrE13
G18
E14
G18
E13
G19
6
G18
E9E12
G19
E11
G21
E7E8E8
G16
E9
G17
SE9
G15
--E8SE10SE10S11
G20
S12S17
G21
S14
G22
S13
G21
S9S12
G23
S11
G17
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4NE4--NE4--E5E9E10
G17
E14
G23
E14
G19
E13
G19
E12
G22
E11
G19
E14
G20
E14
G20
E10
G17
E11
G18
E14
G21
2 days ago------NW8NW8NW8NW9NW8NW9NW10NW11--N12
G18
NW11N7
G18
NW7N10N7N8N8N4E5CalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.