Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delwood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:32PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:58 PM CST (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delwood, WI
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location: 43.93, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 172331
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
531 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Short term (tonight and Monday)
issued at 227 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
upper level shortwave trough driving northeast toward the eastern
great lakes at mid afternoon while its associated sfc low hangs well
to the southeast - closer to the oh river valley. However, inverted
sfc trough hangs northwest of the low and into the local area. A
ribbon of higher theta-e air will continue to feed this area and
just north, along with weak QG convergence. Snow will continue as a
result, although be on a diminishing trend in areal extent intensity
as the evening wears on. Lay out of the forcing and radar trends
continues to favor the higher amounts for parts of northeast
ia southwest wi - with another 1-2" possible. Some locations will
top +6" with ratios as high as 25:1. However, per coordination with
surrounding offices, opting to hold with the winter weather adv
(mainly along and south of i-90) for now thru midnight. Continue to
give warnings strong consideration, but how widespread the higher
totals will be, and the prolonged period of the snow lean toward
keeping the advisory.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 227 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
for Monday night thru Wednesday night: main forecast concerns this
period are the next system and snow amounts tues night Wed and
potential impacts.

17.12z model runs in good agreement for rising hgts over the region
mon night, followed by shortwave ridging aloft ahead of the next
strong trough shortwave into ejecting into the central southern
plains for tue. Tightening consensus on this trough shortwave energy
as it lifts northeast toward across the upper ms valley tue
night wed, lifting quickly NE of the region Wed night. Fcst
confidence is average to good this period.

Rather strong and seasonable cold can high pressure sits across the
region Mon night tue, even as hgts rise and shortwave ridging aloft
builds across the region. If skies Mon night end up more clear than
partly cloudy with light winds over the plentiful snow cover, the
blend of guidance lows near below 0f for Tue morning may well be
as much as 10f two too warm in some of the normally colder low
laying valleys. Tue temps remain below normal as clouds ahead of
the next system increase in the afternoon.

Increasing signal for the next strong trough shortwave to spread a
strong round of 500-300mb PV advection and ageostrophic flow
divergence between at least partly coupled 250-300mb jet maxes. This
with mdt lower level thermo-dynamic forcing lift and pw values in
the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range in the airmass flowing north ahead of the
approaching sfc-mid level low trough. Consensus of 16.12z models
produced about 1 4 inch of QPF across the area. Consensus among
17.12z models is now on the order of 1 4 to 1 2 inch of QPF across
the area, Tue night wed. Dendritic growth zone progged more in the
climatological range of 50-100mb deep, with snow-water ratios more
around 15:1 (vs. The 20-30 : 1 today). Confidence increasing for
this system to produce at least advisory (3 to 6 inches) snowfalls
across the area, mainly between midnight and noon wed, with impacts
to the Wed morning commute for most if not all of the area. Still
some signal for loss of ice nucleation in the cloud tops across the
se end of the fcst area during the later morning afternoon hours.

Confidence not the highest on this, but will continue with a mention
of some -fzdz in the grids across the SE end of the fcst area on
wed.

With an advisory in effect for parts of the fcst area thru midnight,
will not issue any headlines for Tue night Wed system at this
time. If the model QPF consensus continues to increase in later
runs, tonight's mid crew tonight or Monday's day crew may need to
issue a winter storm watch for parts or all of the fcst area for
tue night wed.

For Thursday thru Sunday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concern this
period is another potential winter system Fri night thru Sat night.

Medium range model runs of 17.00z 17.12z in decent agreement for
broad SW flow aloft over the region Thu Fri ahead of the next
trough shortwave energy coming thru the central southern rockies.

Solutions then diverge on the timing strength track of the
trough shortwave energy as it ejects into the plains late Fri fri
night. These differences at their maximum Sat sat night as system
approaches crosses the mid upper ms valley. Fcst confidence average
thu Fri then below average for the weekend.

Thu Fri dominated by sfc high pressure under the SW flow aloft.

Although not much for sfc-925mb gradients for mixing, the airmass
slowly modifies in place thanks to what should be some late feb
sunshine. Blend of guidance high near normal by Fri continues to
look good. Plenty of between model and run-to-run detail
differences on the trough to lift thru the mid upper ms valley fri
night thru Sat night. Given confidence on the low side this
period, can do little more than stay with a model ensemble
consensus in the grid for now. One trend since the 16.12z runs is
toward colder solutions over the area, with any precip Fri night
thru Sat night looking to be snow vs. A wintry mix. Better
consensus on a drier cooler airmass to build into the region sun,
to end the weekend on a dry note.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 531 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
a trough of low pressure extended from northwest iowa into central
illinois late this afternoon with light snow or flurries still
occurring north of this trough. This light snow or flurries will
continue for much of the evening until the upper level low over
northern iowa moves far enough east for the weak forcing from it
to end. MVFR to occasional ifr conditions will continue to occur
until the snow ends. Once the snow ends ceilings will be right on
the edge of MVFRVFR but will slowly improve toVFR during the
overnight hours. An area of high pressure will begin to work in
from the north Monday with the clouds expected to scatter out as
this moves in.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for wiz041-
042-053>055-061.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for
mnz086>088-094>096.

Ia... Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for
iaz008>011-018-019-029-030.

Short term... Rieck
long term... .Rrs
aviation... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Volk / Camp Douglas, WI14 mi63 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist17°F16°F99%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from VOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E9E7NE4NE4E5NE7E5E7NE6NE7NE7E7NE7NE6NE10NE13
G19
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G15
NE6NE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW7W5NW3W3W3W6W5W4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3E6E5CalmE6SE5E9E10E8
2 days agoW17NW18
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W17W17W17
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W13
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W12W12W11W13W13W12W11W13W12W13W9W9NW5W7W7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.