Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delwood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:28PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 7:51 PM CDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delwood, WI
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location: 43.93, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 222305
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
605 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 252 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
latest 19z surface analysis shows low over minnesota and south
dakota border. With tight pressure gradient and winds mixing down
aloft out ahead of the low pressure system has produced windy
conditions across the area. Latest metars over southeast minnesota
and northeast iowa are indicating wind gusting up to 30 to around 40
knots with wind speeds 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight into Thursday... Upper level surface low lifts north into
southern ontario canada and the upper great lakes region tonight.

Then... Upper level surface ridge builds into the northern plain
states Thursday. Due to daytime loss of heating and gradient
slackening over the area this evening... Winds will diminish across
the area this evening and tonight. The 22.12z GFS nam suggest
stratocumulus deck of clouds advect into the northern half of the
forecast area Thursday morning... With ridging building over the
area... These clouds will erode late morning to early afternoon. With
partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon across much of the
forecast area... High temperatures are expected to rise into the
lower 60s to middle 70s.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 252 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
for Thu night thru Sat night: main fcst concerns this period are
shra tsra chances Thu night Fri and potential rain amounts.

Model runs of 22.12z in good agreement for the shortwave ridging
aloft from Thu to be rather transient. This as the mid level low
over the rockies lifts into the northern plains as a strong piece of
shortwave energy rotates around its east side Thu night, then toward
man western ont fri. Overall trend is a bit slower than the earlier
runs with these features Thu night fri. Good agreement for the
trough to continue filling weakening as it passes north of lk
superior Fri night with rising hgts westerly flow over the region
sat Sat night. Thu night thru Sat night fcst confidence is generally
good this cycle.

Slowing trend of the models Thu night Fri delays the arrival of the
deeper moisture saturation and lift into the overnight hours of thu
night, with Thu evening continuing to trend dry across most if not
all of the fcst area. Pw values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches (around 2 std
deviations above normal - naefs) progged to spread across the area
late Thu night Fri morning as deeper layered forcing lift and some
mucape spreads in as well. Most if not all models spreading some
shra tsra NE into across the fcst area later Thu night Fri morning,
just differing on the details of where the stronger, more persistent
convection may be during the period. Consensus rain chances in the 50-
80% range spreading NE across the fcst area later Thu night Fri are
reasonable. See hydro section below for the rain QPF details. Models
hold the moisture plume over the SE side of the fcst area late
fri Fri evening. This as hgts aloft would be falling, the sfc front
would be approaching and some sfc-700mb thermo-dynamic forcing
continues. Models differ on the NW extent of convection fri
afternoon evening, with GFS further NW than the others. If GFS is
more correct, swody3 may have to be shifted to the NW as CAPE shear
over the SE side of the fcst area may well support a few strong
severe storms a few hours either side of 00z sat. Consensus is for
the sfc front to be south of the area Sat sat night with quiet
westerly flow aloft and weak high pressure building in. GFS again
slower with front and brings a weak impulse or 2 thru the flow for
sat and would spread precip chances across the south half of the
fcst area. Some small consensus shra tsra chances across NE ia far
sw wi Sat afternoon evening ok until the details sort themselves
out. Blend of guidance highs closer to normal Fri then even above
normal for Sat appear well trended for now.

For Sunday thru Wednesday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this
period are shra tsra chances Mon thru Wed and potential rain amounts.

Medium range model runs of 22.00z 22.12z in reasonable agreement for
one shortwave trough to pass north of lk superior Sun sun night
while troughing a mid level low deepen over the southwest conus.

Detail difference increase for Mon Wed but overall trend is for the
southwest CONUS troughing to lift NE into across the central conus
mon into wed, potentially phasing with northern stream energy over
the mid upper ms valley by mid-week. Day 4-7 fcst confidence is
generally average this cycle.

Area to be between systems sun, one north and one well west. Sunday
trends quiet under westerly flow aloft and weak sfc high pressure
drifting across the region. By Mon (memorial day) lead energy out of
the western CONUS troughing develops low pressure into the central
plains with increasing lower level moisture lift ahead of it quickly
spreading NE into the upper midwest and shra tsra chances back in
the fcst already by Sun night. This wave energy to pass mon, with
the main portion of the trough, sfc low and its shra tsra chances to
lift toward across the region Mon night tue. Potential phasing of
this troughing and northern stream energy dropping out of can would
drive a stronger cold front across the region wed, for continued
shra tsra chances. Blend of the guidance highs near the late may
normals for sun, then below normal with more clouds and the
shra tsra chances mon-wed reasonable at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 605 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
an area of low pressure was located over west-central minnesota
late this afternoon. This low is expected to move northeast across
lake superior through Thursday morning and then off into southern
ontario. This will help to maintain a tight pressure gradient over
the area that will keep the winds above 10 knots with the
direction veering around to the west. Some gusts will occur again
at krst Thursday but the speeds should only be to around 20 knots
or so. MVFR clouds on the back side of the surface low are
expected to briefly spread over both airports late tonight into
Thursday morning but should lift out of the region by late
Thursday morning.

Hydrology (Thursday night Friday)
issued at 252 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
area shaping up to get another round of 1 2 to 1 inch of rain thu
night fri. This on top of soils already wet saturated from the
recent rains of Sat night Sun and Tue night, with potential for this
round of rain to produce more runoff and rises on area streams and
rivers. Models at odds on where the heaviest rains may fall, some
north of i-90, some south, but with pw values progged into the 1.25
to 1.5 inch range, potential is certainly there for any tsra to be
efficient rain makers. Will issue an esf for the more widespread
rains and river rise threat late in the week into the weekend.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... Dtj
long term... .Rrs
aviation... 04
hydrology... .Rrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Volk / Camp Douglas, WI14 mi1.9 hrsSSW 17 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F55°F50%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from VOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE21
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E3E3E5SE6E5CalmE8E8E13E11E16
G21
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2 days agoNW9NW10NW10NW10NW9NW8NW9NW7NW7NW8NW8NW8NW7N9NW10N6N6NW4N9N7NW5NW4NW3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.