Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Lisbon, WI
May 20, 2024 5:52 AM CDT (10:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:24 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:45 PM Moonset 2:52 AM |
FXUS63 KARX 200917 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 417 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Through Tonight-Storms push east through early afternoon then re-develop tonight - Severe risk level 1-2 of 5
- Tuesday-Multiple rounds of storms-Severe risk remains a level 3 out of 5 for much of the area/Heavy rain potential:
DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Overview:
A bit more active across the Plains earlier tonight. Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed broad troughing across much of the western and central U.S. with closed low pressure over Alberta and Saskatchewan. A couple of embedded shortwaves in the flow were noted over the Dakotas and also over the mid-Missouri River Vally toward Oklahoma. Numerous clusters of storms were noted with bowing reflectivity/lightning signature highlighting the cold pool/outflow structures. The 20.00Z MPX sounding showed 0.97" of precipitable water (PWAT) with drier lower levels below 850mb. The latest WSR88D radar mosaic shows areas of showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area with the shortwave and increasing low level jet. Hourly rainfall rates vary from a trace to a quarter of an inch locally, however farther south over parts of southern IA, hourly rates have been as high as .5 to 1" per hour. Gusty winds 20 to 45 mph and small hail have been associated with the stronger storms.
Through Tonight-Storms push east through early afternoon then re- develop tonight - Severe risk level 2 of 5:
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning with the shortwave trough lifting across the forecast area, continued moisture transport, and support from isentropic lift, warm air advection, and the low level jet. The convection is holding the surface warm front farther south initially, but is forecast to have a northern semblance, but re-develop across Iowa tonight ahead of the next shortwave. PWAT values increase to 175% of normal by 12Z, then this moisture axis shifts east...lowering to 125% of normal by 00Z. As the moisture transport vectors veer with time, the precipitation will shift eastward through the day. Western areas may not see much as a result with showers and thunderstorms lingering across parts of southwest WI into the early afternoon. SBCAPE is limited, however there is some elevated CAPE. Deep layer shear is variable 25 to 55kts. Due to the inversion in the lowest 1km, the shear in not all being realized. MLCAPE shifts eastward this afternoon along with the forcing, thus look for decreasing coverage by early afternoon with a break for many.
Perturbations in the southwest flow aloft continue tonight with the low level jet once again strengthening across Nebraska and Iowa.
Meanwhile, SBCAPE increases 250-1250 J/kg with strengthening moisture transport, especially to our west. The CAMS re-develop scattered thunderstorms especially along the inverted trough across the northwest (RST/CCY westward) during the evening hours and additional showers and thunderstorms within the warm air advection regime overnight. Deep layer shear increases from the west overnight. With storms being more surface based and tapping more instability, strong to severe storms will again be possible.
Tuesday-Multiple rounds of storms-Severe risk remains a level 3 out of 5 for much of the area/Heavy rain potential:
An area of 500mb low pressure over the Plains is forecast to lift northeast and become negatively tilted as it rotates through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Initially, there is an inverted trough to the northwest over central MN and a stationary front through parts of Iowa. During the day Tuesday, the surface warm front lifts north with the forecast area within the warm sector. During the early morning hours, moisture transport increases across Iowa with a strengthening 40kt low level jet. We are starting to get some of the CAMs going out into the Tuesday period and continue to indicate multiple rounds of storms. The CAMs are hinting at potentially severe storms/a bowing MCS that rides along the thermal gradient with the warm front lifting north, Additional severe storms are possible in the afternoon along the front and in the warm sector due to building instability and favorable large/curved hodographs, and in the evening with the cold front.
With the surface low to our northwest and occluding, there are still uncertainties in how far north the tornado threat will be.
The current severe weather outlook risk level 3/5 has been nudged northward and covers most of the forecast area for wind/hail threats with current tornado threat generally I90 southward. Higher instability and stronger shear profiles favor the potential for stronger tornadoes/longer tracks. The overnight and early morning convection Tues. could affect these details; potentially hindering airmass recovery or affecting frontal locations.
Through Tuesday, we have rainfall of 1 to 2" of rainfall forecast. Forecast soundings deepen the warm cloud depth making storms more efficient at producing heavy rainfall. Generally rates remain below 1"/hour, however there are some pockets of 20-40% probabilities of 1"/hr. The HRRR 24hr ensemble max shows the potential for 2 to 5 inch amounts. Overnight, most amounts have been a trace to .5" with localized higher amounts. The widespread higher amounts fell just to the south. Through Tuesday, with multiple rounds of storms and flash flood guidance of 2.5 to 3", there will be the potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding.
Continue to monitor this forecast for updates.
Some spotty rain chance continue Wednesday with Thursday generally dry. Another front moves in Friday and potentially lingers into Saturday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
CIGS: mid level cigs into the overnight with a lowering into MVFR/IFR expected near 12z. Some differences in short term guidance in how long these will linger, but consensus generally favors through the morning with improvement to VFR cigs for the afternoon.
Another round of low (MVFR or lower) cigs are expected Tue, although timing/how long those impact the TAF sites is unclear at this time.
WX/vsby: latest radar imagery shows blossoming area of showers/storms over central IA, moving northeast - fueled/sparked by the low level jet. CAMS models a little late on picking this up, but do suggest a more widespread, and bit earlier arrival into the area.
However, recent trends suggest KRST be on the western areas of rain shield. Will adjust expectations for showers/storm with these trends in mind.
While the model blend favors keeping low rain chances through Monday afternoon/evening, the CAMS and other deterministic model runs continue to suggest there will be a break from the pcpn. Will do the same with the forecast and keep it dry (for now). After Monday morning, next shot for shra/ts could hold off until Tue morning.
WINDS: southerly tonight, shifting westward post a sfc front toward 18z Mon. Should flip back eastward moving into Monday night.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 417 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Through Tonight-Storms push east through early afternoon then re-develop tonight - Severe risk level 1-2 of 5
- Tuesday-Multiple rounds of storms-Severe risk remains a level 3 out of 5 for much of the area/Heavy rain potential:
DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Overview:
A bit more active across the Plains earlier tonight. Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed broad troughing across much of the western and central U.S. with closed low pressure over Alberta and Saskatchewan. A couple of embedded shortwaves in the flow were noted over the Dakotas and also over the mid-Missouri River Vally toward Oklahoma. Numerous clusters of storms were noted with bowing reflectivity/lightning signature highlighting the cold pool/outflow structures. The 20.00Z MPX sounding showed 0.97" of precipitable water (PWAT) with drier lower levels below 850mb. The latest WSR88D radar mosaic shows areas of showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area with the shortwave and increasing low level jet. Hourly rainfall rates vary from a trace to a quarter of an inch locally, however farther south over parts of southern IA, hourly rates have been as high as .5 to 1" per hour. Gusty winds 20 to 45 mph and small hail have been associated with the stronger storms.
Through Tonight-Storms push east through early afternoon then re- develop tonight - Severe risk level 2 of 5:
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning with the shortwave trough lifting across the forecast area, continued moisture transport, and support from isentropic lift, warm air advection, and the low level jet. The convection is holding the surface warm front farther south initially, but is forecast to have a northern semblance, but re-develop across Iowa tonight ahead of the next shortwave. PWAT values increase to 175% of normal by 12Z, then this moisture axis shifts east...lowering to 125% of normal by 00Z. As the moisture transport vectors veer with time, the precipitation will shift eastward through the day. Western areas may not see much as a result with showers and thunderstorms lingering across parts of southwest WI into the early afternoon. SBCAPE is limited, however there is some elevated CAPE. Deep layer shear is variable 25 to 55kts. Due to the inversion in the lowest 1km, the shear in not all being realized. MLCAPE shifts eastward this afternoon along with the forcing, thus look for decreasing coverage by early afternoon with a break for many.
Perturbations in the southwest flow aloft continue tonight with the low level jet once again strengthening across Nebraska and Iowa.
Meanwhile, SBCAPE increases 250-1250 J/kg with strengthening moisture transport, especially to our west. The CAMS re-develop scattered thunderstorms especially along the inverted trough across the northwest (RST/CCY westward) during the evening hours and additional showers and thunderstorms within the warm air advection regime overnight. Deep layer shear increases from the west overnight. With storms being more surface based and tapping more instability, strong to severe storms will again be possible.
Tuesday-Multiple rounds of storms-Severe risk remains a level 3 out of 5 for much of the area/Heavy rain potential:
An area of 500mb low pressure over the Plains is forecast to lift northeast and become negatively tilted as it rotates through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Initially, there is an inverted trough to the northwest over central MN and a stationary front through parts of Iowa. During the day Tuesday, the surface warm front lifts north with the forecast area within the warm sector. During the early morning hours, moisture transport increases across Iowa with a strengthening 40kt low level jet. We are starting to get some of the CAMs going out into the Tuesday period and continue to indicate multiple rounds of storms. The CAMs are hinting at potentially severe storms/a bowing MCS that rides along the thermal gradient with the warm front lifting north, Additional severe storms are possible in the afternoon along the front and in the warm sector due to building instability and favorable large/curved hodographs, and in the evening with the cold front.
With the surface low to our northwest and occluding, there are still uncertainties in how far north the tornado threat will be.
The current severe weather outlook risk level 3/5 has been nudged northward and covers most of the forecast area for wind/hail threats with current tornado threat generally I90 southward. Higher instability and stronger shear profiles favor the potential for stronger tornadoes/longer tracks. The overnight and early morning convection Tues. could affect these details; potentially hindering airmass recovery or affecting frontal locations.
Through Tuesday, we have rainfall of 1 to 2" of rainfall forecast. Forecast soundings deepen the warm cloud depth making storms more efficient at producing heavy rainfall. Generally rates remain below 1"/hour, however there are some pockets of 20-40% probabilities of 1"/hr. The HRRR 24hr ensemble max shows the potential for 2 to 5 inch amounts. Overnight, most amounts have been a trace to .5" with localized higher amounts. The widespread higher amounts fell just to the south. Through Tuesday, with multiple rounds of storms and flash flood guidance of 2.5 to 3", there will be the potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding.
Continue to monitor this forecast for updates.
Some spotty rain chance continue Wednesday with Thursday generally dry. Another front moves in Friday and potentially lingers into Saturday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
CIGS: mid level cigs into the overnight with a lowering into MVFR/IFR expected near 12z. Some differences in short term guidance in how long these will linger, but consensus generally favors through the morning with improvement to VFR cigs for the afternoon.
Another round of low (MVFR or lower) cigs are expected Tue, although timing/how long those impact the TAF sites is unclear at this time.
WX/vsby: latest radar imagery shows blossoming area of showers/storms over central IA, moving northeast - fueled/sparked by the low level jet. CAMS models a little late on picking this up, but do suggest a more widespread, and bit earlier arrival into the area.
However, recent trends suggest KRST be on the western areas of rain shield. Will adjust expectations for showers/storm with these trends in mind.
While the model blend favors keeping low rain chances through Monday afternoon/evening, the CAMS and other deterministic model runs continue to suggest there will be a break from the pcpn. Will do the same with the forecast and keep it dry (for now). After Monday morning, next shot for shra/ts could hold off until Tue morning.
WINDS: southerly tonight, shifting westward post a sfc front toward 18z Mon. Should flip back eastward moving into Monday night.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
La Crosse, WI,
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