Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:14AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 947 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Light showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201704292115;;450628 FZUS53 KDTX 291347 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 947 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ441-292115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291736
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
136 pm edt Sat apr 29 2017

Aviation
Existing dry northeasterly flow will gradually given way to an
increasing surge of moisture over the next 24 hours. Remainder of
the daylight period today largely defined with this drier profile,
some lingering higher basedVFR stratus tucked beneath thicker high
cloud. Probability for showers and subsequent reduction in ceiling
height will increase tonight, particularly at fnt/mbs where MVFR
conditions will be more likely. Periodic showers areawide into
Sunday, with the highest coverage/intensity still focused at
fnt/mbs. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible tonight and
Sunday, but the ill-defined timing and limited potential will
preclude any mention at this stage. Firm northeast wind through
tonight, turning intermittently gusty /20 kts/ late today into the
evening.

For dtw... Satellite and observational trends favor a ceiling height
holding at or just below 5000 ft through the afternoon. Any loss of
this ceiling likely of short duration, as renewed expansion of this
stratus occurs this evening/early tonight. Low probability for
elevated thunderstorms tonight, limited coverage and uncertain
timing precludes a mention. Firm northeast winds continue through
tonight.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in ceilings 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

High confidence overnight and Sunday.

* low chance for thunderstorms late tonight and Sunday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 326 am edt Sat apr 29 2017
discussion...

convective activity overnight has remained tied to the sfc front
down across the ohio valley. Some light showers did manage to brush
metro detroit and points south overnight. A second region of showers
developed much higher up along the frontal slope across NRN and cntl
lower mi, aided by some upper jet support. While the mid
tropospheric frontal boundary will remain draped across lower mi
today, precip chances through at least mid afternoon look to be
rather low. Upper jet forcing will shift west of the forecast area
and the expansion of the bermuda high across the eastern us will
actually lead to mid level height rises across the ERN great lakes
(including SE mi) during the day. The best chances for some showers
will thus remain focused near the ohio border, closer to the low
level frontal boundary. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will expand
across NRN ontario today. This is already driving a back door cold
front across the forecast area, approaching the i-69 corridor as of
06z. This front will push south of the state line this morning. Post
frontal lake-modified temps have dropped into the 40s. N-ne winds
will sustain cool conditions through the day. Diurnal heating should
at least boost temps back into the 50s away from lake huron this
afternoon.

The upper low will rotate from new mexico into the texas panhandle
today, sustaining the tropical moisture feed into the mid miss/lower
ohio valley. This will support continued widespread convection in
this region. The latest hi res solutions, particularly the hrrr and
arw, suggest a convectively induced mid level short wave will lift
out of this region and traverse lower mi tonight. Ample deep layer
moisture and decent elevated instability will be transported into
the area ahead of this feature, supporting high probabilities of
showers/thunderstorms. A deep warm cloud layer and 700mb dewpoints
approaching +5c combined with weak elevated instability will support
intense rainfall rates with any convection tonight.

The passage of any short wave feature by Sun morning will likely
support some decrease in areal coverage of convection. The
aforementioned upper low will rotate across the central plains on
Sunday. The deterministic model suite continue to suggest upper jet
dynamics will support good mid level fgen along the 850mb portion of
the front, which is expected to extend into the saginaw valley. This
may support some prolonged rainfall across the tri cities region and
will be something for later shifts to monitor in the event that a
flood watch may be needed. The upper low is forecast to make a push
to the northeast Sun night into Monday. This will bring the warm
conveyor across SE mi Sun night, where the continued tropical
moisture feed will push precipitable water up to 1.6 inches. Good
upper level diffluence across the region and low to moderate
elevated instability will support widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sun night, with additional heavy rainfall possible.

With with surface low occluding well to the southwest, the warm
front is likely not going to lift north of the mi/oh state line on
Sunday. Potential showers and low clouds and a stronger easterly
flow is likely to lead to rather chilly temps over much of the
forecast area on Sunday.

The mid level dry slot is forecast to be overhead on Monday as the
upper low meanders its way across the western great lakes. The
potential for deep mixing suggests warm and breezy conditions
Monday. The upper low is then forecast to lift northeast of the
region on Tuesday, with the sfc occluded front passing across the
area Mon night. Much cooler air will filter into the area in the wake
of the front, supporting cool temps on Tuesday. Mean long wave
troughing is forecast to hold across the region through the end of
the work week, support continued cool conditions.

Marine...

conditions will be fairly unsettled through early next week as a
strong low pressure system slowly tracks through the area. Modestly
strong north to northeast winds will continue to generate large
waves over saginaw bay and off the tip of the thumb today. High
pressure center sliding through ontario coupled with the area of low
pressure lifting through the plains will then turn winds to the east-
northeast late tonight and Sunday and allow for an increase in
speed. This will maintain small craft conditions in the current
advisory area, with additional advisories potentially needed for
other portions of the lake huron nearshore waters. Strong winds
gusting into the 25 to 30 knot range are then expected across all of
the central great lakes on Monday in advance of a cold front before
they flip to west on Tuesday and finally decrease Tuesday night. A
wet and active pattern will develop late today, with periods of
heavy rain and thunderstorms possible late tonight through Monday
afternoon.

Hydrology...

the chance for showers will remain low through the late afternoon
today, then begin to increase in the evening. Total rainfall through
800 pm is expected to remain near or under 0.25 inches. The chance
for rain then increases significantly tonight through Monday
afternoon, with periods of steadier rain expected, which may become
heavy at times. Total rainfall through Monday afternoon looks to
range between 1 and 3 inches, with the highest amounts expected over
the saginaw valley. Locally higher totals will be possible for areas
that experience thunderstorms Sunday into Monday, as storms will
bring brief periods of torrential rainfall. Rivers and streams will
see significant rises through the middle of the week, and ponding of
water may develop in low-lying areas and roadways. Flooding could
become a concern by Sunday and Monday, particularly over the saginaw
valley.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Sunday for lhz443.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for lhz421-422-441.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt Sunday for lhz442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Sunday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi46 min NNE 14 42°F 1024.6 hPa34°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi49 min N 17 G 21 39°F 1023.4 hPa32°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi57 min ENE 16 G 18 40°F 1024.4 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi57 min ENE 14 G 19 44°F 1023.7 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi37 min ENE 8.9 G 12 43°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.7)
PSCM4 43 mi37 min N 17 G 23 39°F 1024.7 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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SW15
G21
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W12
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W6
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2 days
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S13
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G23
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G27
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G21
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G26
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G32
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SE14
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G16
SE14
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S17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi40 minNE 10 G 1710.00 miFair44°F31°F63%1024.4 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi46 minNNE 14 mi42°F34°F73%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13
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W8W6CalmNW4N5N10
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NE8NE8NE5NE9NE7N6N5N9
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1 day agoSW15
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G26
W15
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G25
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W9
G15
SW12W11SW12
G15
SW8W14
G18
W12
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2 days agoSE12
G19
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G21
S18
G28
S19
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G25
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SE9
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S8S9SE8S8S7S13
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S14S17
G23
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G28
SW16
G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.