Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:25AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 947 Am Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201710182115;;042964 FZUS53 KDTX 181347 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181650
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1250 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Aviation
A broad surface high pressure system in association with very dry
low to mid-levels will continue to promote skc conditions through
the afternoon and evening. Additionally, a strong low pressure
systems situated and moving east across manitoba into ontario will
continue to promote southwesterly winds, with diurnal mixing
producing gusts between 20 - 25 kts during daylight hours.

During the mid to late morning hours, a weak cold front will then
push through michigan, veering winds from SW to wsw. Conditions will
remain too dry for any precipitation to form, however, there may be
enough low-level forcing to produce a bkn cloud deck at 2.5 - 3 kft
over mbs as the front quickly pushes through. Weaker forcing across
the metro airports will bring the possibility to see high cirrus
during the morning hours.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 345 am edt Wed oct 18 2017
discussion...

quiet weather pattern through the upcoming weekend as ridging aloft
and at the surface reside over the region for the most part. Some
slight eastward drift with the surface ridge centered to our SE will
occur as a mid level shortwave passes over Wednesday night into
Thursday, but it looks to build back west for the weekend. Next
notable system doesn't look to arrive til Sunday into Monday.

Today will largely be dry and sunny as shortwave ridging split flow
region slides over the state immediately in advance of a weak
trough. Very dry airmass and subsidence region will keep the skies
clear. Will get some gusty winds as the gradient between the
approaching trough and surface ridge tightens compresses overhead.

One limiting factor to winds will be the low mixing heights which
are forecast to rise to around 3kft. Most model soundings show this
cap gusts off around 25-30 mph but a couple higher gusts can't be
rules out. Temperatures today will again rise to around 10f above
normal which is around 70f. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
temperatures slightly over achieved and the thermal profile looks to
warm slightly over yesterday so should only add to the confidence of
achieving these temperatures with the warm SW flow.

The strength of the ridge will steer the next upper level wave well
north of the great lakes through northern ontario and james bay. The
weakening cold frontal trough extending southward from this system
will sweep across lower mi Wednesday night into Thursday. Little
fanfare with the trough as the airmass is so dry and surface ridge
still remains in place. Looks like at best we'll see a period of
enhanced cloud cover with the trough but that should be about it.

Highs will fall back into the mid upper 60s in responds to the weak
thermal trough as well.

Surface high builds back over the area Friday into the weekend,
still positioned for us to receive a favorable SW flow. Upper level
ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS in response to the strong
trough coming ashore the west coast. Though the trough looks to
fracture as a potential 140+ kt jet surges east through southern
canada, a cold front should track across lower mi sometime Sunday
into Monday bringing the next chance of showers. With the jet
quickly refocusing back to our north, warm westerly flow will
continue behind the front keeping near normal temps across southern
mi.

Marine...

a pressure gradient between surface high pressure slowly moving east
through the ohio valley and low pressure in central canada will
maintain gusty southwest winds through the midweek period. Small
craft advisories are again in effect today and tonight for saginaw
bay and the nearshore waters of lake huron from port austin to
harbor beach. Southwest winds will then diminish slightly this
evening below 20 knots before maintaining around 20 knots over lake
huron on Thursday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Am
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi64 min 6 64°F 1020.3 hPa44°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi55 min SSW 9.9 G 14 62°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.6)43°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi75 min SSW 6 G 19 57°F 1021 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi75 min SSW 8 G 16 62°F 1020.3 hPa
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi65 min SSW 16 G 18 58°F 58°F3 ft1021.2 hPa (+0.0)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi55 min SSW 17 G 20 59°F 1020.3 hPa (-1.0)
PSCM4 43 mi55 min SW 11 G 16 64°F 1022.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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W17
G28
W17
G21
W17
G26
W16
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W11
G19
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G16
W6
G11
W8
G11
W10
G13
W7
G11
W5
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SW4
SW9
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G13
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G14
SW8
G11
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G13
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G12
SW11
G15
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G13
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G13
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G14
1 day
ago
NE5
E3
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SE6
SE5
G9
SW6
SW4
SW5
S6
SW7
SW7
SW7
SW6
SW6
SW6
G9
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SW9
G12
SW11
G15
SW12
G15
SW11
G17
SW14
G19
SW13
G18
SW13
G20
SW12
G24
2 days
ago
W17
G25
W16
G23
W17
G26
NW12
G19
NW16
G22
NW18
G30
NW15
G20
NW11
G18
NW10
G14
NW9
G13
NW10
G17
NW9
NW8
G11
NW8
NW9
G13
NW8
G11
NW9
G12
NW8
G11
NW8
G14
N15
G19
N12
G16
W2
G6
N7
G10
N6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi60 minSW 14 G 1910.00 miFair63°F40°F43%1021.7 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi64 minVar 6 mi64°F44°F48%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
G27
W15
G23
W16
G24
W18
G25
W12
G19
W8
G16
W6SW7W6W3CalmSW5SW5SW6SW6SW6SW5SW5SW6S3SW6SW9SW12
G15
SW12
G19
1 day agoCalmW8SW4W6SW6SW3CalmS3S4SW4SW6S6S3S3S5S7S9S8S8S8SW10SW12
G18
SW13
G18
SW15
G25
2 days agoW21
G26
W21
G34
NW15
G26
NW23
G28
NW16
G25
NW15
G22
N14NW11
G16
NW10NW18
G24
N11
G15
NW11
G16
NW7NW6NW4NW4NW4NW5NW4NW3CalmNW5N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.