Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:08PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:53 PM EDT (20:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 400 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201707250315;;770876 FZUS53 KDTX 242000 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241943
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
343 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Discussion
A nice stretch of late july weather is set to unfold for the next
couple days as continental high pressure takes control in the great
lakes. Cooler northerly flow today has already scoured out the humid
air that was in place over the weekend and a little more drying is
expected tonight. This will set up comfortable overnight low
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s most locations, aided by
decreasing clouds during the evening and clear conditions by sunrise
Tuesday. Full Sun to start the day will get strong surface heating
underway which will then produce just some scattered cumulus during
the afternoon. Resulting highs in the lower 80s are right about
normal for july 25th.

The mesoscale circulation aloft over the northern plains today has
pacific coast origins but has been enhanced by plains convection
over the last 24-36 hours. The long wave ridge building over the
great lakes will steer this system through lake superior by Tuesday
evening and also nudge the surface high into the new england states
by Wednesday morning. The larger scale upper level features will
remain progressive thanks to the strong circulation moving through
the canadian rockies today that is projected to reach far northern
ontario by Wednesday. Low level flow developing from the south will
have high pressure origins at first but then transition to southwest
and a return of moisture from the mississippi valley by Wednesday
night. The incoming theta-e ridge has a shallow slope in the 850-700
mb layer but is building in at night for that nocturnal
destabilization factor to go along with at least some component of
low level jet forcing for moisture transport. Model QPF solutions
indicate healthy MCS signatures in the 12z nwp package which
suggests the low level jet will be active late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

The upper level low tracking eastward through canada along with a
shortwave moving along the canadian border and a disturbance ejecting
northeastward from the southwest us will bring the next period of
active weather to the region Thursday. These features will help
drive a cold front through southeast michigan with model solutions
coming into better agreement for the timing of the frontal passage.

Finer details regarding the track and timing of these disturbances
will help determine where low pressure will track and the better
forcing for thunderstorms will set up on Thursday. Current
indications are that the best forcing will be across the detroit
metro and areas to the south.

High pressure then builds into the region on Friday and remains in
place through the weekend keeping dry conditions in place through
Sunday. With thermal troughing residing over the region Friday
through Sunday, expect slightly cooler temperatures with highs
ranging from the 70s on Friday before slowly warming into the lower
80s on Sunday. Nighttime lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s
during this period.

Marine
Northerly flow, gusting between 20 to 30 knots over the southern
lake huron basin this afternoon will gradually diminish tonight, and
drop at or below 15 knots for tomorrow as high pressure slides
through the central great lakes. No changes with small craft
advisories into the evening hours. Southerly winds will return
Tuesday night and Wednesday, topping out around 20 knots as warmer
air streams back in ahead of a cold front, which may trigger showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday as it sags south.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1251 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017
aviation...

surface heating slowly lifting cloud bases (vfr) and clouds mixing
out late this afternoon from northwest to southeast, with areas
downwind of lake huron with the northerly flow holding on the
longest. High pressure arriving tonight leading to light and
variable winds and mostly clear skies right into tomorrow.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon, low
early this evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz048-049-
055-063.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for lhz441>443.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Bt jd
marine... ... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi63 min 2.9 70°F 1015.4 hPa59°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi54 min N 18 G 23 64°F 1015.3 hPa (+1.5)56°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi47 min NNE 18 G 24 66°F 1016.9 hPa
45163 32 mi54 min ENE 19 G 21 69°F 71°F3 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi74 min NE 8 G 17 72°F 1016.6 hPa
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi64 min N 18 G 19 63°F 62°F5 ft1015.7 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi54 min ENE 19 G 23 67°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
PSCM4 43 mi54 min N 28 G 33 65°F 1014.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW6
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G12
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G14
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G16
N21
G27
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G24
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1 day
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E14
G17
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SE6
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G11
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SE6
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S9
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G11
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SW5
G9
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SE3
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SE2
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NW6
G10
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G9
E2
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E14
E11
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi77 minN 16 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F55°F70%1016.6 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi63 minVar 3 mi70°F59°F68%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4N8
G22
CalmCalmNW3CalmNW5NW7N9NW10
G14
NW6NW9NW9
G14
N11
G18
N11N11
G18
N9
G17
N13N10
G15
N16
G22
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G23
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G20
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G20
1 day agoE6E6NE5E3NE3N3E3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5SW4
2 days agoW5CalmE3SE4S4SE3S4S3S4CalmS3CalmCalmE3SW4CalmW4E5E5E6E5E4E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.