Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:31PM Sunday September 23, 2018 8:19 AM EDT (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:13PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 337 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Monday night...
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201809231515;;072801 FZUS53 KDTX 230737 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 337 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-231515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231007
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
607 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Aviation
Light easterly flow today with borderline MVFRVFR clouds off lake
erie this morning expected to remain predominately south of taf
sites over monroe county, otherwise clear mostly clear skies today
and this evening. Low cloud development will possible tonight, as
winds become a bit more southeast, which could allow low clouds to
impact southern TAF sites, but confidence was not high enough to
carry a ceiling at this point. At the very least, expectingVFR
clouds (3-6 kft) to move north of the southern michigan border
Monday morning as a warm front lifts north.

For dtw... Will maintain ceiling free skies through tonight, but
there is concern for brief period of low clouds this morning and
again late tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet this morning, then again
late tonight into Monday morning. Medium confidence by noon
Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
discussion...

high pressure now centered over southeast michigan will continue to
influence conditions to finish the weekend, as it only gradually
exits to the east. A light variable early day wind will emerge from
an easterly direction into the afternoon as this process unfolds.

General airmass modification of the existing thermal profile will
commence within a high degree of insolation potential, with the
overall flow yielding neutral to weak warm air advection. This will
net roughly 4-6 degrees of warming across the lowest 5000 ft,
bringing afternoon temperatures up into the 65 to 70 degree range.

Environment proving favorable for some lake effect cloud to work
inland off lake erie early this morning. Recent hi res model
guidance does suggest some sustainability to this moisture flux
going forward this morning, which will leave areas roughly south of
i-94 susceptible to some pockets of early day stratus before mixing
takes a greater hold today.

Some increase in the easterly gradient tonight will tend to limit
the potential for greater decoupling relative to tonight. A more
modest radiational cooling response will result under a mostly clear
sky. Lows Monday morning arriving near seasonable values, generally
settling in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Attention during the early week period turns to the eventual
northeast ejection of a mid level disturbance now lifting across
north texas. Strong height falls commencing across the western u.S.

Will accelerate this process, effectively kicking this system and an
attendant plume of deeper moisture into the region late Monday into
Monday night. A period of pronounced theta-e advection lodged within
the strengthening mid level ascent will translate into a high
likelihood of rainfall during this time. A few elevated
thunderstorms not out of the question as mid level stability
decreases. Northward pace of this system continues to carry the
greatest uncertainty at this stage, with appropriate delineation of
onset timing late Monday still somewhat fluid. High based showers
will become possible by mid-late afternoon, but with the greater
surge of moisture more likely after 21z. Otherwise, conditions
Monday still looking rather seasonable, under a steady increase in
high cloud and gradually veering southeast flow.

Brief period of deep layer southwesterly flow will emerge during the
Tuesday period, immediately downstream of the inbound height falls
tied to an amplifying longwave trough. The resulting moist and
increasing mild environment will leave the area vulnerable to
additional shower production throughout the day. However, recent
model guidance suggests a lag in meaningful forcing between the lead
wave that exits the region Tuesday morning and the trailing stronger
system set to arrive Tuesday night. This moisture rich environment
may offer a generous coverage of cloud cover through the day, but
ultimately could prove dry once the early day precip band pulls out.

Warmest conditions this forecast period likely noted on Tuesday,
with highs of mid to upper 70s certainly plausible depending on
degree of cloud cover.

Cold front remains projected to lift through the region Tuesday
night. This will provide a focused opportunity for a round of
convection, although recent guidance does suggest that greater mid
level forcing will trail the frontal convergence and potentially
shears more to the northeast. Despite more than adequate bulk shear
parameters to support an organized convective risk, the modest
frontal forcing and waning instability given the nocturnal timing
certainly casts doubt on this possibility. Cooler and drier
conditions in the wake of this frontal passage then set to grip the
region beginning Wednesday. Initial period of cold air advection
generally weak, leaving temperatures just a touch below normal
Wednesday and Thursday. Potential exists for secondary shot of
colder air to provide a more meaningful dip in temperatures Friday
into next weekend.

Marine...

light winds this morning will give way to increasing easterly winds
this afternoon, especially across northern lake huron as high
pressure slides east into southern quebec tonight. Solid 15 to 25
knot winds out of the southeast on Monday as warm front approaches,
spreading rain showers into the central great lakes by evening.

Winds becoming southerly Monday night, and increasing further, with
gusts around 30 knots. A cold front then looks to be tracking
through on Tuesday, but northwest post frontal winds Tuesday night
generally look to be under 20 knots.

Hydrology...

numerous showers are expected Monday evening and Monday night as a
warm front lifts into the state. Rainfall totals of a quarter to
half an inch are anticipated. No flooding is expected, although
isolated thunderstorms could lead to slightly higher totals.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 2 am Monday to 4 am edt Tuesday for
lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Freitag
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi29 min SW 7 49°F 1023.7 hPa44°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi38 min 49°F 59°F1023.8 hPa44°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 7 55°F 1024 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi40 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 1023.7 hPa
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi30 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 63°F1 ft1023.9 hPa (+0.4)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi20 min WSW 8 G 8.9 56°F 1023 hPa (+0.6)
PSCM4 43 mi20 min W 5.1 G 6 51°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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N14
G20
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G17
N10
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G11
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SW3
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SW17
G22
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G30
SW15
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G29
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G30
W25
G37
W21
G29
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G29
W17
G24
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G29
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G24
NW12
G19
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G23
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G20
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G18
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NW14
G19
NW9
G15
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G12
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G16
N15
G19
N13
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2 days
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S4
G7
SE12
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G16
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G16
S14
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G21
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SE12
G17
SE14
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S9
G12
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G21
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G21
S13
G16
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G20
S10
G13
S10
SW14
G18
SW12
G16
SW14
G19
SW13
G19
S15
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair41°F40°F96%1024 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi29 minSW 7 mi49°F44°F83%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N9N9
G15
N7N8NE3N4NW4CalmE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS14
G22
S17
G23
SW15
G29
--SW21
G25
SW21
G33
W22
G32
W23
G31
SW22
G27
W22
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G28
NW15
G25
NW12
G22
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NW16
G21
NW12
G21
NW10NW9
G16
NW8NW7NW6NW8NW6
2 days agoE3CalmCalmE4SE4SE5SE8
G15
SE11
G15
SE8SE6SE3SE5SE6SE7SE7SE8S12
G19
S13
G17
S10S11
G17
S12S8
G15
S10
G18
S11
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.