Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:22PM Friday June 22, 2018 11:54 PM EDT (03:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1035 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Light showers in the morning...then a chance of light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers late in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201806230915;;963555 FZUS53 KDTX 230235 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230227
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1027 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Update
Easterly wind will continue to rapidly diminish as low pressure
approaches NW ohio and then SE michigan overnight. This has allowed
the expiration of all beach and lakeshore headlines.

The low pressure system will instead supply the region with low
clouds, light fog and drizzle, and scattered to numerous showers
through Saturday. After a relative lull during mid evening, other
than the drizzle and light fog, showers will redevelop overnight as
the low pressure system over indiana moves slowly over SE michigan. A
couple spokes of more concentrated dynamic support are evident in
satellite imagery rotating around the base of the upper low from nw
ohio and southern indiana and project to move into lower michigan
during the night in advance of the upper low center. The combination
of these concentrated areas of lift within the deep and broad
cyclonic circulation background will produce clusters of showers both
moving in from upstream and developing overhead. A very broad and
deep moisture axis shown in model 850 to 700 mb theta depictions is
characterized as neutral to slightly unstable above the boundary
layer, and so thunderstorm potential is low, however scattered heavy
downpours will be possible as the pattern pivots slowly across se
michigan through Saturday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 753 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018
aviation...

low pressure entering central indiana during early evening continues
on a track nearly over dtw by early Saturday morning. Showers and
low clouds drizzle increased over SE michigan during late afternoon
as the system approached and the leading warm front drifted closer
to the ohio border. Rapid development of ifr along the dtw corridor
will now spread over the entire area during the night but reaching
mbs around or after midnight. Once in place, ifr in a combination of
ceiling and visibility in rain and fog will persist at least through
mid Saturday morning. The path of the low almost directly over dtw
supports the addition of lifr ceiling up to ptk toward sunrise.

Timing and coverage of showers will be difficult to pin down and the
potential for thunderstorms even more so due to low potential. There
will be a slow improvement of flight category through MVFR during
Saturday afternoon due to afternoon heating and as the low pressure
system exits into canada.

For dtw... Moderate northeast wind maintains NE traffic flow
operations through tonight. The low risk and difficult timing of any
thunderstorms continues to prevent inclusion in the forecast for
now. Ifr lifr will be the primary aviation impact through Saturday
morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight through Saturday.

* low for thunderstorms.

* low for ceiling 200 ft or less late tonight and Saturday morning.

Prev discussion...

issued at 544 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018
closed circulation near saint louis this morning has tracked ene to
around terre haute over the last several hours. Regional radar
mosaic reveals two areas of interest this afternoon, the first a
modest band of showers near the southern mi border and the second a
band of stronger convection slowly moving into northern indiana and
ohio. The former is associated with a very weak and poorly organized
deformation field, the lead edge of which has barely moved today and
made no inroads into the existing dry environment over the cwa. This
trend will change somewhat heading into this evening as the closed
low begins evolving into an open wave, allowing the stagnant
moisture axis to rapidly lift north through SE michigan 21-06z. The
accompanying modest increase in mid-level divergence and isentropic
ascent is expected to favor a greater coverage of showers during
this time. Nonetheless, marginal instability and plenty of dry air
in the column will limit expectations. Slight potential for greater
coverage of showers over the eastern CWA where the embedded pv
anomaly lifting northward through ohio will provide stronger ascent.

Expect no more than a few hundredths in the outside of the
aforementioned corridor where 0.2 to 0.3" still represents a
reasonable target. Steady or rising temps over most of the area
overnight as developing southeast flow forces dewpoints well into
the 60s by Saturday morning. Veering flow will also bring an end to
the borderline flood threat on lake erie, where an advisory is in
place, and at essexville, where modeled water levels have been on
target and water levels are expected to touch 48" before lowering.

Expect predominantly dry conditions through most of Saturday as well
as large scale forcing remains focused over detroit and points south
before exiting east after 15z. Any organized morning shower activity
will exit east by this time. Focus for the remainder of the day will
turn to a brief period of shortwave ridging before the arrival the
shortwave presently emerging over the front range this afternoon.

Transitioning upper pattern will result in an elongated nw-se trough
that will serve as a focus for afternoon or evening shower iso
tstorm activity. Attm, arrival of the upstream wave is progged to
occur roughly 21-00z, perhaps just in time to trigger release of
diurnal instability while mean effective layer flow around 10 kts
will limit updraft motion. There will therefore exist a heavy rain
threat within the surface trough corridor, largely conditional on
degree of afternoon destabilization. Severe threat is nil, but 0-3km
mucape of 300-600 j kg per 12z ECMWF in the non-existent wind field
supportive of the idea of some pockets of locally heavy rain due to
slow moving heavy showers iso tstorms in the evening. Limited
moisture characterized by pwats around 1.5" and instability preclude
any noteworthy flood threat. Modest mid-level warm advection within
developing southerly flow will support warmer daytime highs well
into 70s, which pockets of low 80s possible within any breaks in
cloud cover. Northwest flow will usher moisture axis south during
the day Sunday with low end shower potential most likely confined to
the lingering surface trough axis before better moisture is pushed
south in the aftn. Highs on the cool side of normal the low to mid
70s.

A broad area of surface high pressure will travel southeast from
ontario down into the northeast u.S. 12z Mon into 12z tue. Increased
subsidence from the high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine to
southeast michigan Monday into early Tuesday as temperatures climb
into the upper-70s for a daytime high across inland areas. Locations
in the northern portion of the thumb and along the lake huron
shoreline will remain slightly cooler as a backdoor cold front
slides southeast during the morning and afternoon, capping highs in
the mid-60s to lower-70s. Cloud cover will gradually increase late
Tuesday morning into the afternoon as an upper-level trough and
embedded PV anomaly push east across SE mi. Showalters indices
between -4 to 0c will bring thunderstorms as the shortwave moves
across SE mi, along with the potential for heavy downpours as
indicated by pw values ranging between 1.5 - 2 inches. Severe
weather threat looks minimal at this time.

The upper-level trough is expected to weaken and push into new
england by 12z Thursday which will effectively end rain and
thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will continue to climb during the
mid and late week period as indicated by 850 mb temperatures rising
from 17c on 18z Wed up to 21c by 18z sat. For reference, record spc
climatological 850 mb temperatures reside around 20 - 22 c. Raw
model guidance and MOS guidance for both the ECMWF and GFS show
surface temperatures rising into the upper 80s to potentially the
lower 90s for the late week period (thu - sat). Confidence is
increasing regarding possible temperatures in the 90s as lack of
cloud cover and 850 mb temperatures reaching 20+ will allow surface
temperatures to overachieve for late june.

Marine...

easterly winds in the 15 to 25 knots range late this afternoon will
diminish this evening as low pressure enters the state tonight
generating scattered to numerous showers, along with very light
winds tomorrow, 10 knots or less sustained. Modestly higher winds,
northerly 10 to 15 knots behind the low on Sunday, but waves look to
remain predominately under 4 feet over lake huron. Very light winds
looks to be in place early next week under mostly clear skies.

Prev discussion...

issued at 254 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Bt
aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Jvc am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi64 min E 8 60°F 1009.2 hPa58°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi61 min E 8 G 11 60°F 1009 hPa57°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi75 min ENE 12 G 17 63°F 1010.2 hPa
45163 32 mi55 min E 12 G 16 65°F 67°F2 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi75 min ENE 7 G 11 61°F 1010.2 hPa
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi65 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 48°F1 ft1010 hPa (+0.0)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi55 min E 20 G 24 65°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.0)
PSCM4 43 mi55 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi60 minE 9 G 157.00 miOvercast60°F58°F95%1009.8 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi64 minE 8 mi60°F57°F93%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE5E4E3E3E3E3E5E4
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE8NE8E8NE7NE7NE10NE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3SW3CalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmS3N5NE7NE7NE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.