Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinde, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday March 24, 2019 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:18PMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 403 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201903241500;;834687 FZUS53 KDTX 240804 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-241500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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location: 43.94, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240740
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
340 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Discussion
Msas analysis this morning places the center of surface high
pressure at 1026 mb over the ohio river. A surface ridge axis
extends northward into the great lakes with support for high
pressure having shifted to shortwave ridging aloft. A weak vertically
stacked low pressure system is spinning over portions of the mo
river valley. Strong model consensus exists that shows the low
pressure system releasing eastward today while undergoing a
significant amount of weakening. A weak col is noted over lower
michigan during the midday period in response to sheared out cyclonic
vorticity ejecting eastward and diabatic surface heating. This
weakness will help mid-high cloud canopy build persist over the state
today. Difficult to figure what impact this high cloud will have on
temperatures. With little to no lower tropospheric moisture for the
first half of today, preference is to favor mild daytime temperatures
in the lower to middle 50s.

High predictability feature to key off of today and this evening is
aggressive backdoor cold front that is currently pushing due
southward toward lake superior lake huron. Classic shallow cold
front setup with acceleration of the cold front southward due to
rapid transition to anticyclonic flow in the presence of intertial
instability. The cold front is expected to clear the northern thumb
by 21z and through metro detroit between 00-06z. Wind directions
will rapidly flip to the northeast with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph
range. Model trends have supported a lowering of pops both during
the afternoon and evening. Plan views and cross sections suggest a
general lack in system relative isentropic ascent with main
precipitation potential arising merely from differential
increase advection of equivalent potential temperature in the
925-700mb layer. There is some suggestion that a frontal zone may
exist at approximately 600mb, but system relative progs are fairly
clear in showing downglide through that layer. Gut feeling is the
best activity will occur with frontal wave is it rolls through the
northern ohio river valley. Chance pops for rain exist south of
detroit to the ohio border in the 21-03z time window. Expecting quite
a bit of virga, just not sure exactly how much of it will reach the
ground. It remains clear this will be a low QPF event for those that
measure. Very low potential for snow to mix in.

Aggressive surface high pressure will be in control of the region
through the middle of the week. Chilly temperatures are expected
with readings some 7 degrees below normal Monday, some 3 to 7
degrees below normal Tuesday. However, clear skies will make
conditions pleasant.

Southwesterly return flow will ramp up Wednesday allowing
temperatures to respond to around 50 degrees. Warming aloft will
bring steep midlevel lapse rates and chances for nocturnal shower
development Wednesday night. The question for the end of the week is
where will the baroclinic zone set up as flow is forecasted to
become zonal. This will be important as the pattern will favor
active weather precipitation for locations over the great
lakes midwest.

Marine
A cold front will push south across lake huron this afternoon. The
front will be marked with a wind shift to the northeast. Good post
frontal cold air advection will support a period of gusty winds
behind the front, up around 20 knots, persisting to Monday morning.

There is likely to be higher gusts across saginaw bay as the
northeast winds funnel into the bay. The combination of gusty winds
and building waves will support small craft advisory conditions
across lake huron and saginaw bay from late this afternoon through
Monday morning. Strong high pressure will then expands across the
region Monday and will reside through Tuesday. This will support a
gradual decrease in the winds late Monday night into Tuesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1155 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
aviation...

while there will be an increase in the high clouds Sun morning,
ample low to mid level dry air associated with high pressure
departing toward the mid atlantic will sustain clear skies below 12z
feet through daybreak. The southwest gradient on the back side of
this high will support a light wind through the morning. A cold
front will advance into SRN mi from the north late in the day
Sunday. This front will lead to a rapid wind shift to the northeast,
with a possible short duration of MVFR strato cu. A brief period of
wind gusts over 20 knots following the cold front is also expected
as colder air rushes into the region.

For dtw... The cold front is forecast to pass through metro around
03z Sunday, again leading to a rapid wind shift to the northeast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt Monday
for lhz421-441>443.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt Monday
for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Monday for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Monday for
lez444.

Discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 11 mi70 min WSW 8.9 G 18 37°F 1019.3 hPa23°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi43 min WSW 9.9 G 16 38°F 36°F1019.7 hPa23°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi51 min SSW 16 G 20 33°F 1020.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi81 min WSW 8.9 G 14 34°F 1019.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi61 min SW 13 G 15 34°F 1020 hPa (-1.0)
PSCM4 43 mi61 min 36°F 1021.3 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
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-12
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Last
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N17
G23
NW14
G18
NW11
G15
NW7
G10
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G12
W6
G10
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G12
W6
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G14
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G14
SW8
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SW6
G9
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G9
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G12
SW6
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G12
1 day
ago
NW8
G11
NW12
G15
NW13
G21
N21
G26
N22
G28
N19
G29
N19
G28
N10
N31
N26
G33
N24
G31
N28
G35
N26
G34
N20
G29
NW9
G27
N11
NW13
G27
NW11
G22
N8
G18
N4
NW20
G26
N17
G24
N20
G25
N8
2 days
ago
SE9
S8
SE4
S2
NW1
NW4
N11
N7
N7
N6
G9
N8
N6
E3
W7
G11
SW6
G9
W6
G10
NW4
G7
W5
G9
SW4
W8
G11
W10
G13
W12
G16
W11
G14
W8
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI10 mi66 minSW 710.00 miFair34°F24°F68%1020 hPa
Port Hope, MI12 mi70 minWSW 9 G 18 mi37°F23°F57%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW8NW6NW5NW7NW7W7W7W8
G14
W9W10W11W11
G17
W9SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7SW7W8SW5SW6SW8
1 day agoNW5NW8N11N15
G19
N16
G26
N16
G27
N20
G24
N15
G22
N18
G28
N20
G28
N14
G23
N17
G24
N15
G24
N16
G23
N10
G21
N9N12
G15
N12
G17
N11N10N11
G17
N12N9NW7
2 days agoCalmE3CalmCalmNW5N6N6N4NW4NW5NW5W5W7W5W5W4NW3W4W6W6W7W9W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.