Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:21 AM   Moonset 12:28 PM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 447 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog this evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 021052 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge across the region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will then slide across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak surface cold front is in the midst of passing across central New York this morning, as noted by the wind shift front southwesterly to northwesterly. As such, associated lift and moisture ahead of the front has exited the region into the Adirondacks and central New York, leaving the majority of the region with just a few high level clouds and predominately dry weather.

Ridging will continue to build east across Western and North-central New York today. While the shortwave trough aloft responsible for the surface low passing by well to the north this morning will dive southeast across New England today, the low should be far enough northeast, keeping the region on the dry side. Due to the cold frontal passage early this morning, temperatures today will be a tad bit cooler today with highs ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s east of Lake Ontario and in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with a few locations along the New York and Pennsylvania border reaching 70.

Surface high pressure will then slide east tonight with the longwave upper level ridge axis slides across the region. Overall this will promote continual dry weather with overnight lows ranging in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The axis of a mid level ridge will drift east across NY/PA on Friday, with 850MB temps soaring to +14C by afternoon across Western NY. This will bring summer-like temperatures to Western NY, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations. The North Country will be a little cooler, being farther removed from the thermal axis over Western NY, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An ENE flow over Lake Ontario will also keep the south shore of Lake Ontario much cooler, especially west of Rochester.

Most of Friday will be dry. The ridge axis will begin to drift east by late afternoon, with height falls and DPVA reaching Western NY by the end of the afternoon. This will support increasing clouds later in the day, and a few spotty showers and thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon across Western NY. This would be most probable just east of Lake Erie in the typical lake breeze convergence zone from northwest PA into southwest NY mainly south/southeast of Buffalo.

Friday night through Saturday night unsettled weather will return to the region. The mid level trough upstream will drift east into the eastern Great Lakes and then stall as the downstream pattern stagnates in response to a closed low over the North Atlantic to the east of New England. A plume of deep moisture will become situated across the eastern Great Lakes, with numerous convectively augmented vorticity maxima drifting through the mean southwest flow across the region.

The combination of moisture and forcing will bring occasional rounds of showers Friday night across Western NY, and then the entire region Saturday through Saturday night. The best chance of thunder will be on the front side of the system late Friday afternoon and Friday night when instability is greatest. Cooler temperatures will then restrict the thunder potential Saturday through Saturday night, although there may still be a slight chance of a few spotty thunderstorms if there are enough breaks in the rain and overcast.
The clouds and showers will keep highs in the mid 60s for lower elevations and around 60 for higher terrain Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Sunday, the mid level trough axis stalled over the eastern Great Lakes since Friday night will start to make some eastward progress, and also weaken with time. Lingering weak forcing and moisture will still support a few rounds of showers, with the greatest coverage likely to be east of the Genesee Valley.

Surface high pressure and a bubble of drier air will then build into the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, with a return to mainly dry weather. Model guidance begins to diverge with the timing of the next system by Tuesday, with the GFS faster in the return of moisture and forcing while the ECMWF/GEM are slower. Given the slower trend of the ECMWF/GEM, kept POPs on the lower end of the chance range.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday as low pressure moves into the upper Midwest, with a downstream warm front moving northeast across the Great Lakes region. Enough instability may return to support at least a slight chance of thunder by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will continue to run above average through the period, with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday giving way to 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak surface cold front is in the midst of passing east across the region this morning and is currently located across central New York as being denoted by the subtle wind shift from southwesterly to northwesterly. Cloud cover associated with the front is currently pushing east across the Adirondacks, leaving just a few high level clouds across the area.

A ridge of high pressure will then slide across the region today and tonight supporting predominately VFR flight conditions. Low pressure diving south across New England today will support a few mid level clouds to filter across the North Country today.
Despite this, CIGs will primarily remain VFR.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR.

MARINE
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the remainder of the week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. While the week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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