Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brownville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 741 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201905250315;;407216 FZUS51 KBUF 242341 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 741 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-250315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY
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location: 43.95, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251017
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
617 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A pair of frontal systems will move across the region through
tonight, which will produce a couple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong with gusty
winds, hail, and heavy rain. High pressure will then ridge
southward from canada and into the great lakes providing mainly
dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through tonight
There is a risk of strong thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rain this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk for severe
weather is south of lake ontario where SPC has placed a slight risk.

Heavy rain and localized flooding is possible across the entire
forecast area.

The primary features that will drive our weather is a pair of
frontal boundaries, first a warm front which will be followed by a
cold front. At daybreak, the warm front extends from southern
michigan southeastward into far northeastern ohio. This front
will gradually move northeast and across our region this morning
and into this afternoon. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms have developed just north of this boundary across
eastern michigan and southern ontario province, but the mid-
level flow will direct this cluster 'mainly' to our north.

However, this may clip the niagara frontier this morning, and
scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out anywhere near the
warm frontal boundary. Forecast wind profiles show limited
shear as this moves through, so the severe threat is limited
with the warm front this morning. However, precipitable water
values will increase to around 1.75 inches with the warm front,
with localized heavy rain a possibility.

Areas south of lake ontario will break into the warm sector this
afternoon, and there probably will be several hours of dry weather.

There will be some breaks of sunshine in the warm sector which
will increase instability. Here, temperatures will rise into
the upper 70s to around 80 and dew points will rise into the mid
and upper 60s. This will support surface based capes up to
around 2000 j kg. Meanwhile 700 mb winds to 40 knots and
directional differences with height will provide ample shear for
organized convection. Wind shear supports mid-level circulation
which could produce large hail in addition to gusty winds.

Heavy rain will continue to be a threat, and although moderate
storm movement will limit the widespread flooding potential, any
training has the risk to produce localized flash flooding. The
primary focus for this second round of convection will be a pre-
frontal trough which will move across the area 3 - 7 p.M. A
secondary line may develop long the cold front this evening, but
this will be more scattered in nature. Mesoscale guidance
struggles with the specifics of this convection, but model
consensus supports this general thinking. Also, QPF may be a bit
deceptive given the high pwat values, with explicit mesoscale
guidance showing breaks in the convection which may allow some
locations to remain dry. Lake shadowing will likely delay the
arrival of thunderstorms northeast of lake erie, including the
buffalo metro area.

The cold front will gradually move across the region tonight, with
showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. The severe
weather threat should be done by late evening, with showers expected
to exit east of the forecast area shortly after midnight. After
this, expect some lingering cloud cover with low temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Some patchy fog is also possible, mainly
along and just ahead of the slow moving cold frontal boundary.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
A weak secondary trough will drop across our region Sunday, clearing
the region of the moderately humid airmass, while possibly bringing
a shower or thunderstorm. Coverage area of precipitation will be
scattered, and greatest towards the state line where deeper moisture
lies. Skies will begin to clear from north to south through the
afternoon and evening as drier air is pushed across our region.

Sunday night and Monday an area of surface high pressure will
advance along the northern shores of the western and central great
lakes, with a northerly flow across our region bringing comfortable
late spring temperatures and lower amounts of humidity.

Monday night this surface high pressure will advance eastward and
allow for a southerly flow to return, pushing a warm front northward
towards our region. There is considerable model differences in the
placement timing of this front... With the GFS much slower than the
nam. If the slower progression of the warm front ensues... It may
remain mostly dry through the night. Regardless of the warm front
placing, Monday night will be several degrees warmer than Sunday
night.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday our weather will deteriorate as the first in the next series
of waves rippling northeastward around the periphery of upper level
ridging anchored across the southeastern states. The models have a
great difference with the position of the surface warm front to
start the period, with the 00z GFS lagging the front back across the
lower ohio valley, while the 00z NAM brings the warm front across
lake ontario. Will start the day with chance pops, and quickly ramp
up to likely with daytime instability and the approach of an upper
level shortwave. The position of the warm front will ultimately
determine the axis of greatest storms rainfall. Afternoon highs will
average several degrees above normal.

A progressive ridge will amplify over the lower great lakes Tuesday
night... And this will help to push a warm front across our forecast
area to the thousand islands southern canada region. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with this boundary will taper off
from south to north (yes... South to north) in the process with
mainly rain free weather anticipated overnight for sites south of
buffalo and rochester. Being in the warm sector... We can anticipate
a non-diurnal temp trend with mins in the lower 60s forecast to
occur near or before midnight.

It will be warm and humid on Wednesday and while the majority of the
day will be rainfree... Conditions over our area should deteriorate
ahead of a pre-frontal trough. This will result in an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms... With a 50kt low level jet
once again promoting strong to severe convection. The highest risk
for strong convection will be south of buffalo and rochester... Away
from the stabilizing effects of a strengthening lake breeze off lake
erie. Temperatures on Wednesday should top out within a few degrees
of 80... With the coolest air being northeast of both lakes erie and
ontario. Meanwhile... H85 temps in the teens should virtually
guarantee highs of least the mid 80s in the genesee valley.

The convection from Wednesday afternoon and evening will die off
during the course of Wednesday night... As we will find ourselves
between the exiting pre frontal trough and approaching cold front.

The cold front and axis of the upper level low will push through our
region on Thursday, with perhaps a few lingering showers, or
afternoon thunderstorms.

Cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will support
improving conditions Thursday night and especially Friday. In
fact... There is relatively strong consensus that canadian high
pressure build across the region on Friday to give us a beautiful
day to end the work week.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
A warm front will move across the region this morning, which
will provide a focus for some showers and thunderstorms. These
will be most widespread to the north in canada, but a shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at any location with the warm
front this morning. Localized ifr conditions are possible.

More widespread convection will develop along a pre-frontal
trough this afternoon. Lake shadowing is likely to delay the
onset at kbuf iag through mid-afternoon, but after this expect
a line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move
through the area with periods of ifr conditions in storms.

This line will push east of the area after 00z, with the cold
front itself approaching this evening but likely to be mainly
dry with just an increase in cloud cover following the frontal
passage late tonight. This will result in areas of MVFR flight
conditions due to lower clouds behind the front late tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Southerly winds will increase this morning and then shift to the
southwest ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Winds should peak at
around 15 knots, so no marine headlines are anticipated however there
may be a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead
of a cold front. Winds will gradually turn northwest by Sunday night
into Monday and weaken.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Rsh thomas
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 27 mi36 min 49°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi42 min SSE 8 G 9.9 52°F 1020 hPa49°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 48 mi84 min SE 9.7 G 12 45°F 44°F1019.7 hPa (-0.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 58 mi42 min 52°F 53°F1020.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 97 mi84 min SE 5.1 G 8 56°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY4 mi88 minN 010.00 miFair48°F46°F96%1020.5 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY15 mi28 minSE 710.00 miFair51°F48°F90%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6NW12NW11NW11N8N7N11W7SW7SW4W4CalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE5
1 day agoSW6S5S10SW8S6S84S6SW6
G17
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W12SW8SW7SW7SW7SW8SW8SW9SW6SW8SW8W7W8
2 days agoCalm3E8E9E6533NE6NE6NE7E4CalmE4N3CalmE4E3N4Calm3S6Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.