Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sackets Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:52PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:52 PM EDT (22:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 11:12PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 620 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201706281500;;946617 FZUS51 KBUF 281020 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 620 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-281500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sackets Harbor, NY
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location: 43.95, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 282057
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
457 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight while a
low pressure system moves through the upper great lakes into
ontario. A warm front will move across the region late tonight ahead
of the low, bringing scattered light showers and even some rain
for the north country. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
late Thursday, and some could produce gusty to damaging winds.

Unsettled, warmer and humid weather will continue through the
weekend before high pressure builds in early next week bringing
seasonable and drier weather.

Near term through Thursday
Late this afternoon, satellite imagery showing diurnal cumulus
clouds inland from the lake breezes off of the lower great
lakes. Showers will be suppressed under the ridging aloft as
high pressure slides off the mid-atlantic coast through tonight.

The only exception is the saint lawrence valley where there
will be scattered showers and thunderstorms on back of the
departing shortwave.

Tonight, the cumulus field will subside with the loss of
daytime heating, however high, thin cirrus clouds will spread
across the region ahead of the next approaching low pressure
system. That low is currently located over minnesota, and will
track through the upper great lakes and into ontario overnight.

A warm front extending eastward ahead of the low will sneak
northward across the region overnight into early Thursday
morning. Light showers will develop along the frontal boundary,
as dry air from the exiting high pressure undercuts the showers.

By Thursday morning the frontal boundary will be in place across the
north country, with locations south of lake ontario established into
the warm sector. A shortwave will ride along this boundary, helping
to force a more widespread area of rain for the north country. This
will also organize an area of scattered showers with perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder that will move across locations south of lake
ontario during the morning hours. In the wake of this shortwave, we
should see perhaps some sunshine breaking through to help
destabilize the warmer, humid airmass advecting into the region.

Depending on how unstable this airmass can get, we should see some
thunderstorms develop off the combination lake breeze pre-frontal
trough by late Thursday afternoon. The wind field will be fairly
fast and unidirectionally increasing with height in the warm sector.

This will support a marginal threat for severe weather, mainly in
the form of isolated damaging wind gusts.

However, this will be a scenario where buffalo niagara falls and
watertown likely remain mostly dry if not sunny at times through
Thursday afternoon. This will be due to the robust, synoptically
aided southwesterly flow lake breeze that will develop. A core of
40+ knot winds will develop near 2kft, which will funnel up lake
erie. The warm advective pattern, with poor low-level lapse rates
across the niagara frontier will help keep all of that wind from
mixing down. However, can easily see gusts topping out around 35
knots, or 40 mph. Would not rule out a couple gusts around 45 mph,
especially at niagara falls, with the mainly 220 wind direction that
can tend to have an isentropic downslope effect off of the cooler
lake erie.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Thursday night will mark the beginning of a warm and humid period
with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms lasting
through Saturday. A warm front will already be north of the region
by Thursday night, while a weak cold front tries to move toward the
region. But while some weak troughs may move through Thursday night
or Friday, it's looking less likely that the main boundary will make
much headway into wny. This appears to be due to the fact that the
slow moving upper level flow will spawn either a few surface lows
moving NE into the upper great lakes region or result in just one
low generally S of james bay with a persistent trailing ne-sw trough
co-located with an upper level jet stuck over an area between about
missouri to quebec. As a result, the region will likely end up
in the warm sector for the majority of the time until the cold
front finally wafts through late Saturday or Saturday eve.

The result will be low confidence on timing precipitation events
from Thursday night through Saturday. That said, it's safe to say
that mesoscale boundaries will play some role in focusing
convection, with a high chance for ongoing convection inland of wny
into the eastern lake ontario region Thursday evening, with a lower
threat in lake shadowed regions along the lakeshores. As lake
boundaries lose their influence, upstream convection may be able to
move across the lakes later Thursday night and Friday am. A repeat
idea is plausible on Friday, with lake breeze convergent boundaries
driving higher convective chances toward Friday afternoon and
evening.

Finally on Saturday, the upstream frontal boundary should start
making some headway and either move through during the afternoon or
evening hours Saturday evening. This will result another chance for
afternoon convection, particularly on lake breezes.

With warm and humid air in place for this period, expect
temperatures climb toward the low 80s in most spots but with
humidity levels being a little uncomfortable at times. The sultry
period may be Friday night through Saturday with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and or near 70.

In terms of severe weather, there doesn't appear to be too much of a
signal for widespread severe. With the warm and moist airmass,
large hail is unlikely. There might be a wind threat on Friday
inland along and east of lake breeze with higher shear, but this may
be isolated. Possibly a slightly greater threat may be heavy rain,
particularly in the eve overnight hours Friday night and or Sat with
a stronger low level jet near about 30kts together with high pw
between about 1.75-2.00".

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Cooler and drier air will start moving into the region on Sunday.

This won't make much of an impact at the surface in terms of daytime
temperatures, but with dewpoints dropping through the 60s, humidity
levels should be more comfortable for the remainder of the weekend
into next week. There will still be a chance for convection on
Sunday on lake breezes, but most areas outside of these localized
areas should remain dry.

By Monday, a ridge should be moving eastward through ontario and
into quebec, and extending S through nys. This should result in a
dry period, including Monday eve for any early fireworks displays.

For the fourth of july, there are some model discrepancies with the
ec bringing a surface trough and related precipitation in the
region. Looking higher up, there isn't anything that fits this
scenario - no identifiable shortwave troughs. The GFS on the other
hand has convection breaking out over southern ontario and into
western ny central pa indicative of scattered afternoon eve
convection on lake breeze boundaries. Thus will have a low chance
of afternoon eve convection, mainly inland. But this is ~7 days out
and much can change.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Diurnal cumulus field around 5-7kft inland from the lake breeze this
afternoon will dissipate after sunset. Meanwhile mid and high level
clouds will increase from west to east overnight ahead of the next
approaching weather system. A warm front will move northward across
the region Thursday morning sparking some scattered rain showers
from a mid-level cloud deck, with more steady rain developing over
the north country.VFR conditions will prevail trough tonight and
into Thursday morning.

Outlook... Thursday night through Sunday...VFR MVFR with scattered
to occasionally more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure building across the lower great lakes will result in
winds and waves remaining below advisory levels through this
evening. There may be some showers and thunderstorms across the
saint lawrence river through early evening.

As the next frontal system works its way into our region later on
tonight and Thursday... Winds will then once again freshen out of the
south and southwest... Potentially bringing advisory-worthy conditions
to both lake erie and the upper niagara river buffalo harbor.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Apffel church
short term... Zaff
long term... Zaff
aviation... Church
marine... Church apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 29 mi53 min 66°F1016.4 hPa (-0.6)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi53 min W 7 G 9.9 71°F 1016.8 hPa (-1.5)50°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 39 mi53 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 66°F1 ft1016.6 hPa (-1.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 63 mi53 min 71°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi53 min WSW 11 G 16 75°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi57 minWSW 910.00 miFair71°F52°F51%1016.5 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi1.9 hrsW 13 G 179.00 miFair72°F48°F44%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW7SW9W5W8W4W6W6CalmSW4S3S4S4S6SW7SW10W10
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1 day agoS5SW5CalmSE5Calm3S5S4S4S43CalmS5S4S6SW4CalmSW6W14W12
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2 days agoSW6SW11SW7S4CalmCalmW9W6SW3S5CalmCalmCalmS3S4W3SW7W8W5W5SW9W12SW8W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.