Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sackets Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:36PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 1:42AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 611 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Scattered snow showers in the evening, then light snow likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to 10 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201811181615;;486705 FZUS51 KBUF 181111 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 611 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-181615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sackets Harbor, NY
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location: 43.95, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 181441
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
941 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will move across pennsylvania today and
spread light snow into much of the region from about the ny thruway
southward, with minor accumulations across the higher terrain of the
southern tier and western finger lakes. This snow will end by early
evening, with a few scattered lake effect snow showers possible
tonight northeast of lakes erie and ontario. Cold weather will last
through thanksgiving day before warmer air arrives by next weekend.

Near term through tonight
Radar shows some light snow across the western southern tier,
but the steadier snow extends back to the wsw into southeastern
michigan. This steadier snow will continue to spread into
western new york south of i-90 late this morning.

A frontal wave of low pressure will move from the ohio valley to
southern pa today through this evening, with support from a flat mid
level trough and right entrance region upper level jet dynamics
forcing the development of a weak baroclinic leaf to the north of
the surface low track. Associated warm advection and frontogenesis
to the north of the low track will support a ribbon of light snow
today across the southern great lakes region. For our area, the
deepest moisture and best forcing will move across the western
southern tier and western finger lakes, where the light snow will be
most persistent. The northern edge of the light snow will get
to, or just north of the ny thruway by afternoon. The snow will
continue through late afternoon before quickly ending early this
evening as the dynamics associated with the frontal wave move
southeast of the area.

As far as accumulations go, the latest 00z model guidance trended up
just a little with qpf, and slightly farther north with the qpf
axis. Model guidance including the operational models and convective
allowing href ensembles are tightly clustered with the placement and
magnitude of the QPF axis. Expect accumulations of 1.5-2.5 inches
today across the western southern tier and western finger lakes,
with the higher end of that range limited to the higher terrain
given surface temperatures near the freezing mark. Farther north,
temperatures will be just above freezing across the lower elevations
along and north of the ny thruway. This, and lower QPF will limit
accumulations to a half inch or less.

The light snow with the frontal wave exits quickly this evening.

Modest cold advection then develops later this evening, along with a
brief period of southwest flow just ahead of a weak trough axis.

Increasing convergence over the lakes just ahead of the trough
combined with very marginal instability may support a few lake
effect snow showers from late evening through the early overnight
northeast of lake erie, and through early Monday morning northeast
of lake ontario. Inversion heights are a little higher over lake
ontario, so there could potentially be an inch or so of accumulation
across the thousand islands region of northern jefferson county. Any
accumulations off lake erie will be spotty and less than an inch.

Highs today will reach the mid 30s at lower elevations, and lower
30s across higher terrain, with upper 20s across the higher terrain
of lewis county. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s with
extensive cloud cover preventing radiational cooling.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
On Monday, synoptic moisture from the north will approach the area
through the day, as a shortwave trough approaches from the central
great lakes. With 850ts of around -7c, there may be some lake effect
east of lake ontario, where the best synoptic moisture will be for
the day. Off of lake erie, due to the lack of synoptic moisture,
there will be minimal chances for lake effect. Snow fall from lake
effect east of lake ontario should be held to less than inch, mainly
over the tug hill, with a coating to a half inch for remaining areas
that have lake effect off of lake ontario. Winds will generally be
light from the west-southwest. As the day progresses a weak surface
low will shift east and center over the georgian bay by the evening.

High temperatures for the day will be in the low to mid 30s across
the higher terrain and in the mid to upper 30s for areas closer to
the lakes.

Monday night will be dry to start the night as the shortwave trough
and area of low pressure will be to the northwest of the area. Pops
will begin to increase as this trough approaches the area through
the early morning on Tuesday from northwest to southeast. A cold
front will accompany this trough and area of low pressure trekking
toward the area. Snow showers will move in to the area, with some
lake enhancement also possible off of both lake erie and ontario.

Low temperatures on Monday night will be in the mid 20s across the
higher terrain and near 30 closer to the lakes.

As the cold front moves through on Tuesday morning snow showers will
overspread the area, with continued lake enhancement transitioning
to lake effect Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night southeast of
the lakes. An upper level trough axis will be over the area on
Tuesday afternoon and move through by the evening. The next synoptic
system, a clipper will approach the area on Wednesday morning,
bringing with it another shot of cold air behind it. Widespread snow
of around an inch is possible on Tuesday, with additional light snow
amounts from the lake effect. Highs on Tuesday will occur in the
late morning or early afternoon and reach the upper 20s in the
higher terrain to low 30s closer to the lakes. Low temperatures on
Tuesday night will be in the teens over the higher terrain east of
lake ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Second clipper shortwave and associated cold front expected to
cross the area Wednesday. At this stage, only looking at some
nuisance snow showers and limited lake effect potential. Even
though the potential for accumulating snows look limited, those
planning to travel are strongly encouraged to stay up to date
on the forecast as it doesn't take much snow to cause travel
issues.

Secondary thermal trough will filter in for Thursday on the
front side of an approaching area of high pressure and will
bring 850 mb temperatures back down below -15c, resulting in a
very chilly thanksgiving day with high temperatures capping in
the 20s and wind chills in the teens or colder at times.

The much anticipated warm-up is still on track, but a bit later
than in previous forecasts. Warmer temperatures will arrive
Friday and Saturday with most locations see highs in the mid to
upper upper 20s to upper 30s Friday, and in the upper 30s to 40s
with 50 degrees not out of question for Saturday. Precipitation
chances will increase Saturday as a rather deep but short-wavelength
trough swings through the great lakes.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
A weak wave of low pressure will pass from ohio eastward across pa
today. A shield of light snow will break out to the north of the low
track, with widespread ifr vsby developing in light snow this
morning across the western southern tier and western finger lakes
and continuing through mid to late afternoon. Some light snow may
reach kbuf and kroc, with MVFR most likely and probably a brief
period of ifr conditions due to vsby. This light snow will end
by late afternoon.

Tonight, a few lake effect snow showers may develop northeast
of lakes erie and ontario, but the marginal setup should keep
these scattered and light. CIGS will continue to be MVFR at
lower elevations and ifr across the higher terrain of the
southern tier through the first half of the night, with
improvement late.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR MVFR. Periodic snow showers.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
A series of weak fronts will cross the eastern great lakes tonight
through Tuesday with winds generally less than 15 knots. A stronger
cold front will move through the eastern great lakes Wednesday. This
front will tighten the pressure gradient and bring another round of
small craft advisory conditions from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, with some potential for low end gales on lake
ontario during this period.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Apffel hitchcock
short term... Sw
long term... Sw tma
aviation... Apffel hitchcock
marine... Apffel hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 29 mi34 min 45°F1027.7 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi34 min SSE 7 G 11 33°F 1027 hPa20°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 39 mi64 min S 3.9 G 7.8 34°F 47°F1 ft1027.3 hPa (-0.6)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 63 mi34 min 23°F 48°F1028.2 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi64 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY9 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F21°F78%1028.4 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY24 mi68 minSE 410.00 miOvercast26°F21°F84%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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NW8NW6NW7NW7N6NW7CalmCalmCalmSE3E4E4SE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW5S4S5S7W9W15
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2 days agoE6NE4E7E5NE3CalmN3CalmCalmNE6NE8NE9NE8NE9NE9NE8NE10NE8NE6NE4E4NE5CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.