Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 2:22 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 432 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 182342 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 742 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending from the Labrador Sea and the Canadian maritimes back across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to...as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Time to check up on those air conditioners.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
While fair dry weather will be in place throughout the region tonight...lingering low-level moisture will encourage more fog to develop overnight. This will especially be the case over the western counties.

After some early morning fog and stratus, mainly dry weather is expected Sunday as a mid and upper level ridge starts to build overhead. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary in place. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid and upper level ridge will become anchored over our region this period, with mainly fair weather and building warmth.

A shortwave trough will ripple through this ridge over Canada Monday night, possibly bringing a shower down into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Otherwise moisture left behind this shortwave may aid in development of a few spot showers or thunderstorms along a strengthening lake breeze boundary Tuesday afternoon. Subsidence with the ridge aloft should keep any activity isolated.

The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. By Tuesday, 850 hPa temperatures of +14 to +16 will yield widespread 80s, and perhaps a few 90 degree readings in the Genesee Valley. The exception will be northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario where the southwest flow off the cool Lake waters will hold back the heat for metro areas of Buffalo and northern Watertown.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure tracking from Lake Superior to Hudson Bay will place our region in the warm sector for much of the day Wednesday. With SSW downslope flow will hedge on the warm side of guidance with highs 85 to 90 across lower elevations, including Buffalo and Rochester. 12Z model consensus brings a cold front through Thursday evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday night with the frontal passage.

Possibly a lingering shower behind the front on Thursday with afternoon temperatures still slightly above normal despite the cold frontal passage. After this, weak high pressure will build across the region resulting in mainly rain-free weather Thursday night through Friday night. A secondary cold front will approach the region Thursday night, and may pass through all or part of the area Friday and into the weekend. Lower confidence in temperature forecast for this time period, with forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s representing a consensus of model guidance. These could be 5 or more degrees warmer or cooler depending on the position of the front. Chances of showers with the front will remain low, but a stray shower can't be ruled out on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions at sunset will deteriorate overnight...especially over the western counties where fog and stratus should develop. IFR to LIFR conditions should be fairly widespread after 06z.

On Sunday...low stratus and fog over the western counties will give way to VFR weather by mid-late morning. VFR conditions will also be found east of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass will continue over the lower Great Lakes tonight allowing for fog and stratus to develop over the lakes. Poor visibility conditions may redevelop and become widespread tonight into Sunday morning on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario with light flow.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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