Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:45PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:22AMMoonset 4:31PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 952 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering south 15 to 25 knots after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until midday, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midday. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201708170915;;498627 FZUS53 KGRR 170152 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 952 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-170915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 170536
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
136 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 334 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
showers and storms will arrive overnight and continue into Thursday.

Some storms could be strong to severe Thursday afternoon, perhaps
lingering into Thursday evening. After a muggy highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s on Thursday, we will cool down to the low and mid
70s Friday and become less humid. A few showers may continue into
Friday morning, north of i-96.

The weekend looks mainly dry, then another chance of showers and
storms should move back in Monday night through Tuesday night. Daily
highs for the weekend into next week should remain in the upper 70s
to mid 80s.

Update
Issued at 1022 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
based on the radar trends, and trends in the hrrr and esrl hrrr i
have increased the pop to near 100% over the western CWA after
midnight.

The instability is not all that great (most unstable CAPE near 600
j kg, but what is really happening is the deep moisture is coming
into our area. Precipitable water values rise from under 1.5" at
8 pm to over 2.0", which is within a tenth of an inches of the
all time record for the 17th of august. The 1000 850 moisture
transport increases dramatically between now and midnight over our
western CWA and more so our NW cwa. Both the hrrr and rap models
show two low level jets tonight, one around midnight that is
mostly focused on NW lower michigan then a second one, currently
helping the convection in mo, heads into our southern CWA toward
sunrise. So I see two periods of showers isolated thunderstorms,
one around midnight then next around sunrise. Given the amounts
of water in the air, we will likely get some brief heavy down
pours, I can see isolated locations getting well over an inch
tonight then again around sunrise with the next band of
convection. Most areas through will likely see less than a quarter
inch between now and noon.

As for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, the primary low level jet
is aimed near SE mi. We do get another one that is aimed toward nw
lower michigan in the evening, that needs to be watched for late
day convection with the cold front.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 255 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
showers and storms will move in overnight and continue Thursday.

Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon early evening,
depending on the timing of several ingredients.

A quiet evening will become increasingly wet overnight as the upper
ridging that was overhead moves east, and a strong upper wave moves
into the western great lakes by daybreak. A warm advection surge of
moisture and lift will be over the heart of the CWA by 12z. Showers
and a few storms will be on the increase from 06z, and covering much
of the CWA by 12z. No severe weather is expected with this wave of
pcpn.

However severe storms will be possible into Thursday. But it will
depend on all factors coming together. With the morning showers and
storms exiting we will need to destabilize again into the afternoon.

The models do indicate some clearing behind the morning wave,
allowing for instability to build into the afternoon. The most
likely region where this occurs should be for areas east of u.S.

131. Bulk shear values are most favorable into the afternoon for
organized storms with hail, around 35 knots, then it tails off to
around 25 knots by early evening. However a large portion of this
shear is in the lowest 1km into the evening. A warm front will be
crossing the cwa, passably supplying more shear locally, and with
low lcls we may see the risk of an isolated tornado. Damaging winds
will also be possible with bowing line segments.

Precipitable water values spike to over two inches by Thursday
morning. So we will also have to watch the heavy rain potential,
with very heavy localized rains likely with the WAA rains. Additional
heavy rains will be possible into the afternoon, but this will be
very more localized with the diurnal convection.

A breezy Friday with some warp around showers possible in the
morning. Temps will be about 5 degrees cooler, along with falling
dew points. More isolated showers and storms possible late Friday
night with another upper wave coming through.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 255 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
two main periods of rain look possible in the long term, one on
Saturday, and then another centered around the Tuesday timeframe. We
are looking for temperatures to warm up quite a bit by Monday of
next week, before a pronounced cool down comes in for mid-week next
week.

A decent short wave will dive in quickly on Saturday, in the wake of
the upper system supporting the system for tomorrow into Friday.

There is decent agreement that this looks to affect mainly the srn
portion of the cwfa. We would not be surprised if this system digs a
little further south, and moves south of the area. We will roll with
chcs of showers storms for Sat for the time being.

Dry and increasingly warmer weather is expected for Sunday and
Monday. We will see a flat upper ridge migrate over the area. Even
though the ridge will not be very strong, we will see a solid sw
flow bring in very warm air aloft from the plains states. The
atmosphere will likely be capped through Monday. This is favorable
for eclipse viewing in the area mon, aside from some small cumulus
development or high clouds that might approach the area.

The threat for rain will increase beginning Mon night and will
likely MAX out on tue. The flat ridge will slip east, and we will
see an amplifying trough taking shape to our west. The stronger
nature of the wave combined with some gulf moisture advecting in
looks to bring a good shot of showers storms to the area. This
should move out by wed, leaving a much cooler and drier air mass in
its wake.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 134 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
a couple of rounds of showers and storms expected today. The first
round is moving across the lake and will be mostly showers. MVFR
vsbys are likely with these showers as moisture content is very
high. Another round of showers storms is expected this afternoon.

Strong storms are possible with the afternoon round especially at
lan jxn.

Marine
Issued at 255 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
will issue a small craft advisory for Thursday afternoon north of
holland and extend it through Friday. Southerly winds will pick up
Thursday, then become westerly by late Thursday night. Most likely
we will need to add the areas south of holland into Thursday night
as this wind shift occurs.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible Thursday. This may
lead to localized heavy rainfall where storms more frequently
occur. Early to mid morning showers and storms are expected along
a warm front and afternoon evening showers and storms are possible
especially east of us 131. Pwat values will be quite high,
approaching 2.0 inches, along with surface dew points above 70.

There is some potential for a few training thunderstorms with mbe
velocities occasionally dropping below 10 kts. However, this does
not look like a classic flood setup outside of localized ponding
of roads. We will continue to monitor trends.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from noon edt today through Friday
evening for miz037-043-050-056.

Lm... Small craft advisory from noon today to 9 pm edt Friday for
lmz846>849.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Njj
aviation... 04
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi39 min SE 8 G 12 74°F 64°F
45024 6 mi27 min SE 14 G 18 73°F 70°F2 ft1011.7 hPa67°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi77 min E 11 G 16 74°F 1011.5 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi77 min ESE 7 G 13 73°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi62 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F75%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmW6W4SW6W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E7SE6
1 day agoCalmNE6E3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7NE4N7NW7N10N9NW6N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.