Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:04PM Friday March 24, 2017 4:10 AM EDT (08:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:50AMMoonset 3:21PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 310 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest, then veering north 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
LMZ849 Expires:201703241515;;990622 FZUS53 KGRR 240710 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 310 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ849-241515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 240403
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1203 am edt Fri mar 24 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
rain chances will increase tonight and last through the weekend into
next week as a series of areas of low pressure will move through the
area. It will not be raining all of the time, but the chances will
remain. Warmer air will try to move in over the area, especially the
southern half of the state. Some of this rain will be accompanied by
the threat of thunder, especially tonight and Friday. Severe weather
is not expected.

Update
Issued at 1028 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
rain is spreading in on the nose of the 850mb low level jet and
strongest moisture advection. High resolution models like the
hrrrx indicate that this is the main push of precipitation tonight
with a tapering off overnight. Would not be surprised to see
another round of precipitation overnight though as a 50-55 knot
low level jet moves through.

As for the threat of thunderstorms, left the mention in the
forecast, as most unstable CAPE values have increased to 500-1000
j/kg west of the lake at 02z. Not expecting values that high to
advect in overnight as the drier air will act to erode the
precipitation and instability a bit. A rumble or two of thunder
cannot be ruled out between now and daybreak.

Bottom line, a slug of rain to move through with an embedded storm
possible through 07z. Another round of showers and a storm or two
possible overnight.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
our main challenge through the period is determining rainfall trends
as the area will become under the influence of a wetter pattern that
will be accompanied by more seasonable to warmer than average
temperatures. We are also watching the potential for some possible
freezing rain up north, if sfc temps can drop enough.

We are expecting a line of showers with embedded storms to move
in/develop overhead later this evening into the overnight hours
tonight. This will be in association with the best surge in moisture
transport in the lower levels. This will be fueled by a 50+ knot low
level jet that will move in tonight. Initially everyone will see the
opportunity develop from SW to ne. There will be a fgen band that
sets up across the NRN portion of the cwfa to north of the area as
the warm air is stopped from moving any further north. The thunder
threat looks to be elevated, so severe weather chances look quite
low.

The frontal set up will limit the best rain potential from m-20 and
to the north for Friday. South of this line, the warm sector will
bring temps into the 50s just north of i-96, to almost as warm as 70
across the far south.

We will see the rain potential then sink south late Fri night into
sat. This occurs as high pressure across canada strengthens, and
overcomes the front a bit. Lower michigan will be in the zone of
best fgen, and therefore will have the best threat of rain as short
waves ride along this boundary. The good thing is that all of the
deeper instability stays mostly south of the area after tonight,
keeping severe weather chances mainly out of the area. Rainfall will
begin to add up over time, creating wet conditions.

We will see rain chances continue then Sat night as the main low out
to our SW will lift up into the area. This will just reinforce the
moisture advecting over the area. It does appear that the low will
be occluding, so most of, if not all of the instability will stay
down around i-94 and areas south.

Regarding freezing rain chances, the chance is not zero late tonight
across the far NE counties, and again Sat night. The chances are
small enough at this time to keep out of the forecast for the time
being. This occurs as the high to our north will bring in a NE flow
with some cooler and drier air trying to advect in. The models are
in fairly good consensus keeping temps at least a tad above
freezing. If a trend develops for cooler temps up north, the chcs f
or some freezing rain there will go up. This is something we will be
watching.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
with a weakening low pressure system tracking into the CWA the risk
for showers will exist on Sunday. The atmosphere will be moist and
some weakness in the stability will be around... Which will support
at least moderate showers. The surface temperatures are forecasted
remain above freezing so no mixed precipitation will be in the
forecast.

The frontal zone will still be around through Monday. As a result
the risk for showers will exist. High pressure ridges in for Tuesday
and into Wednesday so will feature a mainly dry forecast.

Temperatures will likely end up a few degrees above normal for most
of the long term period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1150 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
most of the rain and scattered thunderstorms will move out
of the area during the next couple of hours although a few
light rain showers may linger overnight mainly at kmkg. Conditions
should beVFR overnight but some patchy fog may develop toward
daybreak. There is not enough potential in fog development to
warrant mention in any of the terminal forecasts.

Vfr conditions will continue Friday morning and afternoon but
south to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts with some
gusts to 25 kts possible Friday afternoon. Showers will redevelop
Friday evening and conditions Friday evening will deteriorate to a
mix of ifr/MVFR due to development of patchy fog and low clouds
and showers. Some lifr is possible by mid to late Friday evening
as well.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
we will be holding on to the small craft advisory as is for this
forecast cycle for the northern two zones. Sse winds are up close to
criteria, as are waves near little and big sable points. There
should be a slight trend down after 00z, enough that we do not feel
the need to extend this out further.

Wave could come up enough in the warm sector near muskegon and point
south that advisory conditions may be met.

Hydrology
Issued at 146 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
an active weather pattern starting Thursday night and lasting
through at least early next week will provide multiple episodes of
at light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday
night through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches
will likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts favored
in muskegon river basin. River levels will likely rise as a result.

Some rivers may eventually climb back to bankfull next week.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Mjs
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Cas
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi40 min S 8 G 15 45°F 33°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi30 min S 13 G 19 41°F 1014.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi30 min S 8.9 G 13 42°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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E4
E4
G7
SE5
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SE3
G8
SE6
G9
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SE8
G13
SE4
G11
SE7
SE5
G12
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G11
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G12
SE7
G14
SE6
G9
SW5
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G8
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G15
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G10
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G14
NE2
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G12
1 day
ago
N5
G15
NE5
G10
NE7
G11
NE5
G9
NE5
G8
NE4
G8
E5
G9
NW1
G5
NE5
G9
W8
NW7
G11
NW7
G11
NW6
G11
NW7
G13
NW5
G8
NW4
G7
N2
N2
NE1
E1
E2
E2
E3
E4
2 days
ago
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S2
W6
G11
NW5
G8
NW10
G17
NW11
G20
N10
G24
N10
G20
N13
G25
N9
G19
N7
G17
N10
G17
N7
G20
N8
G18
N8
G15
N11
G16
N6
G17
N9
G15
N8
G18
N6
G13
N7
G13
N11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi16 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miLight Rain45°F35°F69%1014.2 hPa
Manistee, Manistee County-Blacker Airport, MI24 mi14 minSSE 310.00 miLight Rain41°F35°F79%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4SE4SE5SE5SE6S6SE7S10SE8
G14
S14S8SE9S6
G16
SE6S7SE9
G14
S6S7CalmSE7
G15
SE9S4S5
1 day agoNE5NE7NE6NE7NE4NE6N6N5SE5SE4W9W6N5
G8
NW8N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW4NW6NW9NW13
G19
N21
G24
N17
G26
N14
G20
N16
G26
N11
G17
N13
G23
N15
G22
N17
G25
N9
G17
N8
G17
NE10
G21
N5
G17
N9
G18
N8
G21
N12
G19
N9
G15
N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.