Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:19PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:49 PM EST (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 5:20PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 710 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots veering northwest 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 7 to 11 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming to 30 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots backing west 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
LMZ849 Expires:201711180415;;567711 FZUS53 KGRR 180010 AAA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...UPDATED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 710 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-180415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 180015
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
715 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
rain will move into the area beginning this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible near and south of i-94 Saturday
morning. Otherwise, Saturday will be cool with highs in the 40s.

The heavier precipitation exits to the east early Saturday night.

This will be followed by colder air will spreading into the area.

Some lingering light rain showers will change to flurries towards
Sunday morning. Flurries are possible near and west of us-131 on
Sunday with highs only in the 30s. Afterwards, the coming week
looks mostly dry with highs generally in the 40s.

Update
Issued at 713 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
a couple of thunderstorms were over lake mi at this time moving
quickly east. I have expanded the mention of storms in the
forecast... With the potential now roughly interstate 96 and south.

I also increased the pops. The potential for storms after midnight
gradually shifts southeast with time... Which was also reflected in
this update.

Update issued at 602 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
we have added a mention of thunder for this evening over lake mi
and additional areas south of i-96. This is based on thunderstorm
development over north central il in a region of 500+ j kg mucape,
per rap model estimates. This plume of instability and attendant
potential for thunder is expected to overspread far southwestern
lower mi later this evening before peeling off to the southeast
Saturday morning.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
little change to the previous forecast regarding precipitation
tonight into Saturday. The most likely scenario is that thunderstorms
will remain south of the area Saturday based on the SREF and
several convection allowing models. However, for the sake of
continuity, have kept a slight chance for the i-94 corridor,
especially since elevated instability isn't always handled well by
the models. Precipitation totals are expected to range from
around 0.75 inches northwest to 1.5 inches southeast near jackson.

A more uncertain but potentially impactful aspect of the forecast is
wind Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. It is possible that
advisory headlines will be required with the strong post-frontal
cold advection, but this is a bit too uncertain to nail down now
with an advisory.

Finally, we expect lake effect rain showers to change over snow
Saturday night into Sunday, but any snow accumulations should be
curtailed be limited moisture depth into the dgz. Some snow
showers flurries will continue through Sunday.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
no big storms in the extended but a clipper and trailing cold front
could bring a quick shot of light snow on Tuesday afternoon or
evening followed by some lake effect snow showers into Wednesday.

Added some low chance pops Tuesday through Wednesday and trended
temperatures a bit colder during this period. A clipper tracks north
of the lakes Tuesday with enough low level convergence along the
trailing cold front to bring a brief period of snow or mixed rain
and snow late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening.

Strong cold advection follows behind the front with 850 mb temps
falling to minus 12c Wednesday night. Model soundings show inversion
heights around 7.5 kft agl through Wednesday with northwest flow.

Ecmwf is already showing warm advection by Wednesday afternoon which
would limit lake effect snow showers. Went with low chance pops
across the favored NW flow lake effect areas Tuesday night and
Wednesday but it appears the highers chances will be Tuesday
night.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 641 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
an area of showers and thunderstorms across portions of wi to il
will continue to track east through the evening. Thus a potential
is there for some thunderstorms at the TAF sites. I added this to
the forecast for all sites. By 06z the axis of instability pushes
east of klan so less of a risk by then.

Widespread ifr and lower conditions will develop as we go through
the night. These low conditions will persist likely through
Saturday.

Colder air will filter in from the north Saturday afternoon and
evening. There are some indications that the airmass will become
cold enough for snow to mix by 00z. Given that there is some
uncertainty... I only featured a r S mix. Will need to monitor
trends as a sooner transition to snow could lead to a period of
heavy wet snow.

Gusts over 25 knots from the north look likely to develop for
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Marine
Issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
will keep the small craft advisory intact with a transition to a
gale warning at 10 am est Saturday and lasting through Saturday
night. This timing is to align with the gale warning issued for the
open waters, although it is more likely that gale force gusts over
the nearshore waters will commence in the early afternoon. Gale
conditions across the northern marine zones could end as early as
Saturday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 1042 am est Fri nov 17 2017
better confidence in precipitation forecasts has resulted in
additional river advisories this morning. Widespread rainfall will
affect lower michigan tonight into Saturday with precipitation
totals of 0.75+ inches by early Sunday morning. Amounts will
increase from north to south with the greatest totals expected
south of i-96.

River rises are forecast through the weekend and should stabilize
into next week as precipitation vacates the area. Though current
forecasts anticipate drier conditions, rivers will remain elevated
and responsive. Any changes to include additional precipitation
may need to be closely monitored.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Saturday for lmz844>849.

Gale warning from 10 am Saturday to 7 am est Sunday for
lmz844>849.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Tjt
short term... Tjt
long term... Ostuno
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Jam
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi69 min SSE 15 G 24 40°F 1005.8 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi129 min SSE 11 G 18 39°F 1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi54 minSSE 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast39°F34°F83%1005.1 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi53 minSE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast39°F35°F86%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE6S4SE10SE10
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1 day agoNW14
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N5N3NE4Calm
2 days agoS7S7S8S9S8SE8S9S7S7S9S8S8S7S7S6S13
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.