Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:11PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:51 PM EST (22:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 345 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing east toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201812140415;;745854 FZUS53 KGRR 132045 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 345 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-140415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 132030
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
- threat of mixed precipitation tonight north of i-96. Some light
accumulations of snow and ice possible.

- snow accumulations an inch or less, ice accumulations 0.05 or
less.

- will be issuing a winter weather advisory for the far northeast
cwa from midnight to 8am for the threat of some slippery travel
tonight.

Discussion (this evening through next Thursday)
issued at 330 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
forecast focus is squarely on the first period of the forecast with
mixed precipitation expected tonight north of i-96. Warm air nosing
in aloft will override some low level cold air hanging on resulting
in a mix of some snow and freezing rain across central lower
michigan especially. The amounts will be on the light side, snow of
an inch or less and freezing rain of a few hundredths. That said it
does not take much in the way of freezing rain to result in some
travel issues. The area we are most confident in seeing some light
icing is across osceola, clare, mecosta and isabella counties.

Temperatures will fall below freezing this evening and remain around
30 through the night. For this reason there may be a light glaze of
ice across the advisory area. We may see a brief period of freezing
rain elsewhere north of i-96 but it will be very short lived and we
are not expecting issues. In, the far north along u.S. 10 the
sounding may stay just a bit colder with the precipitation staying
snow a bit longer. Accumulations of around an inch of snow may occur
up along u.S. 10.

Temperatures should rise on Friday morning with the precipitation
coming to an end during the same time. Therefore, we are not
expecting any travel issues to continue into Friday.

Beyond the system tonight into Friday morning, we have a dry
forecast stretching from Friday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

The system on Saturday still looks like it will miss us to the south
and we have kept the forecast dry. The upper pattern this weekend
into early next week is primarily zonal. Temperatures will be mild
over the weekend for this time of year as 850mb temps climb above
+5c. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will rise into the 40-45
degree range in many areas. A brief cool down on Monday into Tuesday
will take temperatures back toward seasonable for this time of year.

Our next chance for some rain snow will come next Wednesday night
into Thursday as a shortwave aloft dives southeast from the northern
plains to the great lakes.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 110 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
MVFR ceilings vis at mkg, grr, and lan should improve toVFR over
the next few hours into this evening. Ifr is likely with rain
tonight into part of tomorrow morning. While all TAF sites have
rain in the forecast, 2-meter temperatures near 0 degrees c at the
beginning of the precipitation at mkg, grr, and lan may create a
brief period of -rasn or -fzra. Ground-level icing is more likely
at airports to the north including rqb and mop, mainly within a
few hours of the precipitation beginning. Winds will be light from
the southeast becoming northeast during the forecast period.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
a light wind regime is in place tonight through Friday night. Winds
will generally be below 10 knots so no headlines are warranted
during that time frame. Winds will increase out of the northeast on
Saturday as a deeper low passes off to the south of the great lakes.

Still, winds will stay below levels advisory levels.

Hydrology
Issued at 110 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
no hydro concerns are expected over the next week as water levels
on rivers remain near-normal for this time of year. Melting and
runoff of any remaining snow will be possible through the next
week as warmer temperatures arrive, but this shouldn't have much
of an impact on river levels. Otherwise rain and possibly a
rain snow mix will be possible late tonight into early Friday, but
rainfall amounts still appear to be below one-half inch.

Therefore some streams may rise, but nothing significant is
expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am est
Friday for miz039-040-045-046.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Cas
hydrology... Anh
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi51 min SE 2.9 G 6 36°F 29°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi71 min SSE 8 G 12 36°F 1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi56 minSE 35.00 miOvercast with Haze36°F30°F83%1020 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi55 minSE 36.00 miOvercast with Haze35°F28°F78%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5SE5CalmE3CalmSE3S4CalmCalmE4CalmE3CalmSE3SE3SE4SE4SE4SE4SE3S4S3Calm
1 day agoCalmE3CalmSE3S4S5S5SE6SE5SE4SE5E10
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W6W5W7W5W5NW4NW4NW3CalmNW3NW4CalmN4N4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.