Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ludington, MI
May 7, 2024 4:07 PM EDT (20:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 4:58 AM Moonset 7:52 PM |
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1105 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers through early afternoon, then rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday - North winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots backing west 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 071919 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 319 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night
- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night
The forecast is progressing as expected and severe storms are a distinct possibility the rest of this afternoon and evening.
Radar shows the initial push of showers/non-severe storms has migrated to the eastern cwa and clearing is rapidly filling in behind it across the southwest cwa. Destabilization is rapidly occuring and as a strong short wave moves closer, severe storms have developed over northeast IL and are moving northeast toward Lower MI.
SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg and bulk shear greater than 60 kts across northeast IL. Severe storms will continue to develop to the southwest through early evening and move into the cwa and all severe hazard types are possible: hail, wind, tornadoes. Areas south of I-96 have the highest risk for severe storms, but all of the cwa has a chance. The severe threat will end after 10 pm as the short wave axis rotates north out of the cwa.
Wednesday will be dry with weak ridging moving into the cwa.
However, it will be short lived as the rest of the upper trough pivots through the state beginning Wednesday night.
Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 40s Wednesday night.
- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday
Rainfall begins early Thursday morning and continues into the day Thursday as a low-pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley, aided by a mid-level wave, sends a band of deformation rainfall across the area. Highest rain potential will be across southwest lower Michigan closer to the low's track with better FGEN. Rain chances are lower across Central Region as its further away from the better forcing. Can't rule out a bit of thunder given 6-7C mid-level lapse rates but chances are low and would mainly be limited to near and south of I94 if at all.
Shortwave ridging and an area of high pressure keep Friday dry across the area. Highs will warm into the low 60s. Our next chance of rain is Saturday as a shortwave sends a surface low near Lake Michigan. Could see some diurnal enhancement to shower activity as the upper-level cold pool moves overhead with steeper mid-level lapse rates supporting thunder chances. Best rain chances will be across the southwest half of the CWA between the low track and placement of the upper-level cold pool.
Predictability then decreases going into the start of next week as model spread in the upper-level pattern increases. Showers may continue into the start of next week but low confidence in when they will end.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be just clearing the terminals near 18z. Additional thunderstorm development is likely with this afternoon and evening, especially near and south of GRR. Thunderstorms bring the potential of locally IFR conditions and gusty winds and hail. Have added VCTS along with a TEMPO group for the highest confidence window. A few hours of MVFR cigs is possible post showers and storms near I96 before skies become MVFR with the exception of MKG who should keep MVFR until tomorrow morning. Southeast winds become southwest tonight into tomorrow generally 7-12 knots and locally higher in TSRA.
MARINE
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The main threat for boaters tonight are severe storms with large hail and strong winds. Additionally, as dewpoints climb into the lower 60s areas of fog will develop.
Wednesday looks less chaotic as the fog will dissipate and storms are not expected.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 319 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night
- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night
The forecast is progressing as expected and severe storms are a distinct possibility the rest of this afternoon and evening.
Radar shows the initial push of showers/non-severe storms has migrated to the eastern cwa and clearing is rapidly filling in behind it across the southwest cwa. Destabilization is rapidly occuring and as a strong short wave moves closer, severe storms have developed over northeast IL and are moving northeast toward Lower MI.
SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg and bulk shear greater than 60 kts across northeast IL. Severe storms will continue to develop to the southwest through early evening and move into the cwa and all severe hazard types are possible: hail, wind, tornadoes. Areas south of I-96 have the highest risk for severe storms, but all of the cwa has a chance. The severe threat will end after 10 pm as the short wave axis rotates north out of the cwa.
Wednesday will be dry with weak ridging moving into the cwa.
However, it will be short lived as the rest of the upper trough pivots through the state beginning Wednesday night.
Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 40s Wednesday night.
- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday
Rainfall begins early Thursday morning and continues into the day Thursday as a low-pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley, aided by a mid-level wave, sends a band of deformation rainfall across the area. Highest rain potential will be across southwest lower Michigan closer to the low's track with better FGEN. Rain chances are lower across Central Region as its further away from the better forcing. Can't rule out a bit of thunder given 6-7C mid-level lapse rates but chances are low and would mainly be limited to near and south of I94 if at all.
Shortwave ridging and an area of high pressure keep Friday dry across the area. Highs will warm into the low 60s. Our next chance of rain is Saturday as a shortwave sends a surface low near Lake Michigan. Could see some diurnal enhancement to shower activity as the upper-level cold pool moves overhead with steeper mid-level lapse rates supporting thunder chances. Best rain chances will be across the southwest half of the CWA between the low track and placement of the upper-level cold pool.
Predictability then decreases going into the start of next week as model spread in the upper-level pattern increases. Showers may continue into the start of next week but low confidence in when they will end.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be just clearing the terminals near 18z. Additional thunderstorm development is likely with this afternoon and evening, especially near and south of GRR. Thunderstorms bring the potential of locally IFR conditions and gusty winds and hail. Have added VCTS along with a TEMPO group for the highest confidence window. A few hours of MVFR cigs is possible post showers and storms near I96 before skies become MVFR with the exception of MKG who should keep MVFR until tomorrow morning. Southeast winds become southwest tonight into tomorrow generally 7-12 knots and locally higher in TSRA.
MARINE
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The main threat for boaters tonight are severe storms with large hail and strong winds. Additionally, as dewpoints climb into the lower 60s areas of fog will develop.
Wednesday looks less chaotic as the fog will dissipate and storms are not expected.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 1 mi | 49 min | SE 11G | |||||
| BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 8 mi | 27 min | E 16G | 62°F | 29.59 | |||
| MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 21 mi | 27 min | ESE 13G | 62°F |
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| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLDM MASON COUNTY,MI | 2 sm | 12 min | ESE 14G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 57°F | 77% | 29.55 | |
| KMBL MANISTEE COBLACKER,MI | 24 sm | 11 min | ESE 12G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.57 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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