Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thomaston, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:06PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 1226 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Areas of fog. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Areas of fog in the morning. Areas of fog in the afternoon. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1226 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Potent low pressure will move north of the waters today, dragging a cold front through the waters Monday night. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through midweek. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thomaston, ME
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location: 43.97, -69.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 200441
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1241 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will set up across new hampshire and southernmost
maine tonight and move north of our region on Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected this evening, some possibly
strong across western new hampshire. Increasingly warm and humid
air moves into the area on Monday. A cold front moving into the
region late Monday will bring showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, to the area before much cooler and drier air
works back into new hampshire and western maine for midweek.

Near term through tonight
1229 am update...

the bulk of the precipitation over the next few hours will be in
the mountains as the shower activity slides off the midcoast
region. Will continue to monitor convection in vermont as it
slides over western new hampshire. Areas of fog likely to break
out overnight.

630 pm update...

storms are making their way across the ct river valley this
evening, but are losing steam as they encounter a less
favorable air mass. Will continue to watch these cells as they
approach from the west. Much of the region has temperatures in
the 70s with dew points in the upper 50s lower 60s which will
not do much to help sustain convection, much less support severe
weather. Adjusted pops and thunder chances for this update,
bringing the threat into southern nh for the next couple of
hours.

Previous discussion...

warm front extends in a west-east fashion from north of kleb in
nh southeastward to around ksfm in maine as of 230 pm. This
front will only move very slowly northward overnight. Conditions
are currently dry as of mid afternoon as larger scale forcing
moved off to the east this morning. However, a weak short wave
trough rounding the mean upper level ridge over the eastern
great lakes will continue to move our way late this afternoon
and evening.

Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the warm front east
of lake ontario should continue to organize and spread eastward
for the balance of the afternoon. These are expected to make it
into the ct river valley zones in nh after 6 pm. Several cams
are in general agreement with this scenario, with marginally
strong storms affecting mainly grafton and coos counties this
evening. Less instability will be available in our forecast
area than points west, so we expect a weakening trend by the
time they get into the ct river valley. However, a few storms
may be strong with strong wind gusts and small hail. The storms
will continue to weaken as they move eastward into the rest of
the CWA overnight with heavy downpours and lightning being the
main threats.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease after
midnight as short wave energy moves off to the east. However,
sct activity should remain present overnight in the general waa
regime.

North of the warm front tonight there will likely be areas of
fog, especially across central and midcoast maine. Not out of
the question that it could become dense fog a time.

Short term Tuesday
Warm and humid conditions are expected on Monday as the warm
front lifts north of the forecast area. The exception will be
the mid coast of maine where marine stratus and fog will likely
last into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are expected to top
out in the 70s most areas, with 80s across the far south. It
will feel muggy.

The main forecast concern will be the coverage and strength of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. At this time, 12z guidance
members are in pretty good agreement with convection initiation
occurring in the western me mountains and far western nh around
18z as a short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent
moves eastward from the great lakes. The activity will then
sweep toward the coast by late afternoon and early evening. As
long as low level moisture doesn't mix out too much, the
combination of CAPE and deep layer shear will support scattered
severe thunderstorms. Convective mode is a bit uncertain right
now as some cams are quick to develop a line of storms, but some
are keeping cells more discrete longer. Mixed modes will
probably be the case, with a few supercells possible along with
clusters and line segments. If lcls remain below 800-1000m and
sfc winds remain relatively backed, a couple of brief tornadoes
will be possible. However, wind damage will be the main overall
threat. Weak mid level lapse rates will be the main mitigator
of overall storm strength. The threat should end around 00z as
the storms move off the coast.

Clearing occurs Monday night and winds become gusty from the
northwest late as low pressure strengthens off the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Upper air pattern remains largely stationary through the coming
week as a blocking pattern becomes established over western
north america. A trough remains across the southwestern us with
a ridge on top of it over the canadian northwest. This causes a
downstream trough over hudson bay and a downstream ridge over
the southeast us. Our area will primarily be on the northern
periphery of the southeast ridge. We will thus be in the line of
fire for any waves ejecting out of the southwest trough as well
as any which might sneak down out of the hudson bay low.

Tuesday we will be in a post-frontal northwest flow regime
which yields warmest temperatures in the south and coast while
cooler conditions and possibly a few showers occur in the north.

Temperatures will range from the 60s near the coast to the low
50s or even upper 40s in northern areas. Cold advection on
Tuesday is strong enough to bring cooling 850mb temperatures
through the day in spite of strong mixing. Winds at this level
peak at around 50 kt. With strong cold advection expect a good
portion of this wind to mix down to ground level. This could
possibly be a wind advisory scenario but for now have increased
wind gusts to the 35 to 45 mph range just about area wide.

Downsloping component southeast of the mountains on the coastal
plain could enhance the downward transport of higher winds.

Pressure gradient begins to relax Tuesday night and especially
on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. This air
mass will have modified after several days of transit across the
northern tier of the us, so high temperatures will only be a
couple of degrees below normal... Mainly in the 60s. Could see
some patchy frost in northern areas especially Wednesday night,
though confidence is a bit low due to the possibility of cloud
cover spilling over the top of the southeast ridge. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer on Thursday generally in the 60s
to low 70s.

The next low pressure area moves out of the great lakes on
Thursday and tracks southeast through southern new england
Thursday night. It is not particularly well organized in part
due to its track through the subsident northwest periphery of
the ridge. However, it could trigger a few showers as it crosses
the region. Some intensification is possible as it reaches the
coast, though the track is uncertain enough that it's not clear
whether the most likely area of rain will be over northern or
southern new england. It moves out of the area on Friday with
high pressure building in from the north behind it.

The next larger scale low pressure and frontal system moves out
of the northern plains on Friday and through canada on Saturday.

We will see a southerly low level wind flow behind departing
high pressure and ahead of the approaching front which will
bring warmer, more humid air into the area with an increased
chance of showers. All the models are in agreement that the
parent low tracks to our north in canada, though just how far
north is not clear. Some models have the southeast ridge pushing
this wave far to the north and thus the trailing cold front
moves through without much upper support for showers. However,
if it moves through a bit closer we could see more widespread
showers across the area. Either way it seems clear the front
will move through our area Saturday night, with a post-frontal
northwest flow expected on Sunday. This would be similar to
Tuesday except warmer and not as windy, likely a nice day for
the coastal plain.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Short term... MVFR to ifr conditions develop tonight in low
clouds and some fog (mainly coastal plain). Showers and
thunderstorms are also likely this evening, especially in the ct
river valley.VFR conditions return Monday morning except for
the mid coast of maine where ifr conditions last into the
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty sfc winds are
expected to move through nh and me Monday afternoon... Generally
from west to east between 18z and 00z.

Long term... Northwest winds gust to 30-35kt on Tuesday behind
a cold front. Could see some showers linger in the mountains but
otherwise expect it to beVFR. Winds relax Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There could be a period of MVFR or ifr conditions and
showers late Thursday into Thursday night with improving
conditions on Friday.

Marine
Short term... Very marginal SCA remains in effect through
tonight for gusts up to 25 kt and seas building to around 5 ft.

Gusty NW winds will occur behind low pressure starting later
Monday night.

Long term... Northwest winds behind the cold front will gust to
30 to 35 kt on Tuesday. Although this should for the most part
fall within the range of a small craft advisory, it's possible
that some gale force gusts occur especially near the coast.

Winds diminish through Wednesday with high pressure building in
from the west and cresting over the gulf of maine Thursday
morning. A weak area of low pressure tracking southeast through
southern new england could bring some showers and an increase in
winds, but for now it looks like this will remain below advisory
levels.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz150-
152-154.

Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME9 mi45 minESE 34.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F97%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmSW4--S5S5S8S5S8S6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E4S4SE3E3E5E6E7E5E5E6E3NE3NE55N4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tenants Harbor, Maine
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Tenants Harbor
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Mon -- 12:22 AM EDT     11.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:00 PM EDT     9.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.1119.56.83.71-0.7-102.35.17.69.4109.47.652.50.80.31.13.15.78.4

Tide / Current Tables for Friendship Harbor, Maine
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Friendship Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:15 AM EDT     10.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     9.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.910.696.43.50.9-0.7-10.12.35.17.69.29.797.24.72.40.80.31.13.15.78.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.