Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thomaston, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:02PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:07 PM EST (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 12:59AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 944 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.gale warning in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain late this evening, then rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 944 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure moves east of the waters overnight. Winds increase Monday night as an arctic cold front drops in from the northwest. Northwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday and into Wednesday before the next system arrives at the end of the week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thomaston, ME
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location: 43.97, -69.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 170306 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
1006 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move east of the region tonight and Monday
bringing snow and some mixed precipitation. Cold and windy
weather follows for Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure and
fair weather follows for midweek before another potential storm
system arrives around Friday.

Near term through Monday
10 pm update...

large area of heavy precipitation continues to rotate onshore
with bright banding noted on radar and dual pol cc. Rain and
snow is mixing with moderate sleet with a couple reports of
freezing rain. Have not changed the winter weather advisory or
the pops weather much since the last update. Forecast is on
track for a messy, mixed precipitation event with slushy wet
snow in the mix. It will make for a treacherous Monday morning
commute.

730 pm update...

band of intense precipitation is not moving onshore in southern
nh and will eventually lift into coastal maine tonight. Water
vapor imagery shows a large area of cooling cloud tops moving
into southern new hampshire. The band of frontogenetically
forced precipitation is moving quickly and have opted to move
the advisory time up for southeastern nh and southern maine to
10 pm as opposed to midnight. By then accumulations will have
already started.

Dew points in the mid to upper 20s leave room for wet bulb
cooling, and although many spots may start out as rain they
will change to a wintry mix or snow. Merrimack and belknap were
also added to the advisory. After retooling the pops and
snowfall amounts to match a blend of the latest hrrr rap13
namnest... More than half of these counties may receive 3" of
snow with a trace of ice.

Previous discussion... . The forecast remains tough for tonight
in terms of precipitation types in some areas as well as
amounts. This mainly due to marginal temperature profiles and
questions about how organized strong forcing for ascent becomes.

Trends over the last 12 hours have been for more organized mid
level frontogenetical forcing across southern nh and the coastal
plain of me overnight and this is leading to heavier
precipitation forecasts. Temperatures in the column in this area
will be close to isothermal near 0c so there is the potential
for a little freezing rain or sleet to mix in from time to time
outside of heaviest precipitation rates.

Much of the guidance is suggesting a 3-6 hour period where a
good "crosshairs" signature exists with strong omega
intersecting the dendritic growth zone. When and where this
happens the precipitation type should be snow due to the added
cooling. Given the isothermal temperature wetbulb profiles
around 0c in the column the snow should be heavy and wet. Have
issued a winter weather advisory for the areas that are expected
to get the heaviest snow and or where light icing amounts are
expected. While areas of NW of the advisory area are expected to
get snow, they are not expected to meet advisory criteria.

Timing of heaviest precipitation will be overnight for most
zones, with much of southern nh seeing the bulk of the
precipitation before sunrise. However, the morning commute there
will likely be slippery. Ending times will be a bit later across
southernmost me. Central and midcoast zones will probably hold
onto the snow much of the day Monday.

Short term Monday night
Precipitation continues for central and midcoast zones much of
the day. Much of the rest of the area should be mostly dry after
late morning (with southern nh ending around 12z). However,
upslope snow showers in the mountains are expected through
Monday night. Otherwise, colder and windy conditions are
expected Monday night.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The departing low pressure will bring a strong pressure gradient
and northwesterly flow to the area on Tuesday. This will bring
gusty winds up to around 30kts along the coast. Colder air will
push in behind with some upslope snow showers and maybe even a
snow squall as the cold air comes in. High pressure builds in
for Wednesday and Thursday with temperature climbing to near the
freezing mark mid day and below freezing at night.

Friday remains the focus of the forecast efforts for the long
term. A deep trough moving through the gulf of mexico will pick
up ample moisture and spread it northwards up the eastern
seaboard. Models continue to have strong agreement on the system
forming, although the instigating wave has yet to come onshore
through the pacnw. Once that happens late Tuesday we should get
a better handle of the storm track. At this point the low looks
to remain well to our west, moving up over ohio and across
southern ontario. That puts northern new england squarely in the
cross hairs of deep southerly moisture. Moisture looks to move
in Friday morning. Will not dwell on amounts, which tend towards
too high at this time range, however do feel comfortable
maintaining the high pop moving into the region for Friday into
Friday night.

Taking a look at the temperature profiles the precipitation type
forecast immediately gets tricky. With departing high pressure
and no precip yet in the area overnight lows below freezing for
all but southernmost nh early Friday morning has reasonable
confidence. Raw model guidance would take the incoming southerly
flow and push the cold air out sky rocketing temperatures into
the 50s or even 60s by early afternoon. While temps this warm
historically can and do occur this time of year, a closer look
at the data leads to some healthy skepticism. Northeasterly
surface winds and weak surface pressure ridging even on the
global models would indicate a cold air damming scenario keeping
temperatures below freezing in at least the interior maine and
foothills region through early afternoon if not all day. Even if
the southerly flow is able to push into the region, at least
along the coast, the ocean temps in the mid 40s will put a
damper on the highs. Thus have kept the temperature forecast on
the lower and more conservative side through the day on Friday.

What does this mean for precipitation type? Well with warm moist
air moving in aloft and the potential for cold air to linger at
the surface this sets up for freezing rain through much of the
area. Due to the depth of the warm air, sleet will be less
common however some sleet and mixing snow in the north and at
higher elevations is well within reason. With the extent of the
cold air remains in flux making the precip type a low confidence
forecast at this point a straight rain snow mix is not really
supported by the thermal profiles and thus have opted to include
mention of freezing rain and sleet even at the long time frame.

As with any forecast of ice this one is particularly sensitive
to the surface temperatures and while I feel fairly confident
lowering highs from the 50s certainly temps ranging throughout
the 30s are in play and it only takes a few degrees to make the
difference between cold rain and ice. This is certainly a system
to keep our eyes on.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Short term... Ifr to low-end MVFR conditions are expected tonight
into Monday morning as snow and mixed precipitation is expected.

A return toVFR is expected after 12z Monday morning for
southern nh and then extending up into southern me during the
morning hours. Central and midcoast maine will likely remain
with low conditions all day.VFR except for the mountains Monday
night, but northwest winds increase and become gusty during the
night.

Long term...

Tuesday will see blustery winds with NW surface flow behind a
departing systemVFR conditions will high pressure will prevail
through Thursday. The next system will approach the region
early Friday morning with conditions quickly lowering to
widespread ifr in mixed precipitation.

Marine
Short term... Gale warnings have been posted for all waters for
Monday night and Tuesday.

Long term... Increasing northwesterly flow behind the departing
system on Tuesday will lead to gale force conditions over the
waters with gusts as high as 45kts on the outer waters. Gales
will continue through Wednesday before high pressure again moves
in for the middle of the week. Another system approaches with
increasing southerly flow over the waters late Thursday night
into Friday morning.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 11 am est Monday for mez014-
018>028.

Nh... Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Monday for nhz008>010-
012-013.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Monday for nhz011-015.

Marine... Gale warning from midnight Monday night to 4 pm est Tuesday
for anz153.

Gale warning from 9 pm Monday to 7 pm est Tuesday for
anz150>152-154.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Ekster
long term... Curtis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 13 mi124 min NE 12 G 16 38°F 42°F2 ft1015.4 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 19 mi124 min ENE 19 G 21 41°F 44°F5 ft1014.1 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 23 mi68 min ENE 28 G 31 41°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME9 mi72 minNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds36°F30°F79%1015.9 hPa

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Last 24hr34N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NE4--NE3NE6N6NE8--NE10NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Tenants Harbor, Maine
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Tenants Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:08 AM EST     8.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:15 AM EST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     8.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:35 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.83.14.96.788.58.27.25.53.72.31.71.92.84.46.17.68.38.37.45.942.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Friendship Harbor, Maine
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Friendship Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:01 AM EST     8.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:15 AM EST     1.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     8.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:35 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.734.86.67.88.37.96.95.33.52.21.61.82.84.36.17.58.187.15.63.82.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.