Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dexter, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:34PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:34PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 341 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers through early afternoon, then scattered snow showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. Lake effect snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201811201630;;577245 FZUS51 KBUF 200841 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 341 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-201630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dexter, NY
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location: 44.02, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201859
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
159 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Leftover light snow showers east and southeast of the lakes will
gradually wind down through this evening. Another clipper system
will then move through the region late tonight and Wednesday while
bringing a period of briefly heavy lake effect snow to areas east
and northeast of the lakes... Along with some snow showers to the
remainder of the area. In its wake... A few more lake effect snow
showers will linger southeast of the lakes Wednesday night... With
near record cold then expected for thanksgiving day before a warming
trend arrives by the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 2 pm... Snow showers have diminished greatly in coverage and
are now confined to areas east and southeast of the lakes. This will
generally continue to wind down through the rest of this afternoon
and evening... Though some limited lake effect snow may continue into
this evening near the southeast corner of lake ontario. This said...

any accumulations from this will be very light with diminishing
moisture and lowering inversion heights. Otherwise... Expect temps
to hold steady or slowly fall through this afternoon as cold air
advection continues.

A weak surface ridge will briefly cross the eastern great lakes this
evening, with most areas dry. The one exception may be southeast of
lake ontario, where some limited light lake effect snow may continue
from eastern wayne to oswego counties.

Late tonight and Wednesday our attention turns to a much stronger
clipper that will pass by just north of the lakes. Stronger large
scale ascent and much stronger low level convergence just ahead of
an arctic front will produce a more robust lake response, with lake
induced equilibrium levels rising to 8-10k feet just ahead of the
arctic boundary. From a synoptic standpoint, the clipper will
produce a few snow showers with a coating to an inch of accumulation
outside of lake effect areas.

Winds and temperatures...

it will become quite windy on Wednesday with a sharp pressure
gradient, cold advection, and steepening lapse rates promoting
downward momentum transfer. Expect gusts of 30-35 knots in the
typically windier lake plain locations, and 25-30 knots farther
inland. This will produce blowing and drifting snow in areas which
receive accumulating snow.

Highs will be in the low to mid 30s briefly Wednesday morning.

Strong cold advection will then force temperatures to drop through
the 20s in the afternoon, with wind chills dropping into the teens.

Now for the lake effect...

off lake erie...

expect a band of snow to develop rapidly after 06z over the lake and
extend northeast into the buffalo metro area. This band may briefly
brush southern niagara and orleans counties as well before settling
south across the buffalo metro area and genesee county, intensifying
as it moves south. The snow will not last in any one location for
more than a few hours, but may produce 1-2 inch per hour rates for a
brief time. The northeast end of the band may briefly reach monroe
county as well with minor accumulations in the western suburbs of
rochester. The band should be just south of buffalo and batavia by
12z wed, then push bodily onshore and focus heavy snow on the
chautauqua ridge for a few hours early Wednesday morning as it
becomes captured by the arctic front. After late morning, expect
transient bands of snow to focus on the western southern tier, with
any upstream connection to lake huron ending up in NW pa or NE oh by
late in the day.

The fast band motion will limit accumulation potential somewhat, but
if the band becomes strong enough it may drop a quick 2-4 or 3-5
inches from the buffalo metro area and western genesee county
southward across the higher terrain. In addition, rapidly increasing
winds will produce plenty of blowing and drifting snow and poor
visibility.

Off lake ontario...

expect a similar evolution a few hours later. A weak band of lake
effect snow may drift north across the tug hill region through the
middle of the night. This will then intensify across central
jefferson county including watertown by early Wednesday morning.

This band of snow will then move fairly quickly south across the tug
hill region through the late morning hours and cross oswego county
early afternoon. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 1-2 inches per
hour in this band. During the mid to late afternoon a somewhat
weaker band of lake effect snow will move onshore from
orleans monroe counties to portions of wayne and cayuga counties as
boundary layer flow veers quickly to the northwest. Mesoscale model
guidance suggests it may develop an upstream connection to georgian
bay during this time frame, although the steadily veering boundary
layer flow should keep the band moving enough to keep accumulations
somewhat in check along the south shore of lake ontario.

The fast band motion will limit accumulation potential somewhat, but
if the band becomes strong enough it may drop a quick 2-4 or 3-5
inches from central jefferson county including watertown, southward
across the tug hill region. Expect 1-2 inches later in the afternoon
from western oswego county westward along the south shore of the
lake to orleans county, including the rochester area. There will be
some additional accumulations in this area Wednesday night. In
addition, rapidly increasing winds will produce plenty of blowing
and drifting snow and poor visibility.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Wednesday night through Thursday night will likely bring the coldest
temperatures of the season. Wednesday night temperatures will bottom
out around the low to mid teens for areas near the lakes, and in the
single digits to near zero across the higher terrain. Temperatures
on Wednesday night and Thursday will likely be the coldest
temperatures that most areas experience since this past march or
february. As the area of arctic high pressure moves into the
northern great lakes, behind a departing upper level trough, cold
air advection that began on Wednesday will continue through
Wednesday night. The arctic high will be centered over wny by
Thursday evening.

850ts on Wednesday night will bottom out around -20c from wny to
near -22c over n.C.Ny. If these 850ts come to fruition, it will be
in the top five coldest 850ts recorded in the month of november for
the buffalo sounding location. The coldest 850 temperature per nws
archive was -21c on november 21, 1987, with that number in jeopardy
of getting eclipsed on Thursday morning. Light lake effect snow will
continue from earlier on Wednesday through early Thursday morning.

Lake effect snow that does persist through the night should taper
off through the early morning on Thursday. Moisture levels will drop
overnight Wednesday as the arctic high approaches the area on
Thursday, with the GFS and NAM showing pwats of around a tenth of an
inch. The euro though does show some slightly better moisture
content. With 850ts this cold, any moisture that will be present
will likely be in the snow growth zone. Likely pops will continue
very early on this period as the lake effect snow starts to wind
down. With the above in mind, will trend pops down to chance for
lake effect southeast of the lakes through the early morning before
sunrise. As ridging increases with the approaching high, resulting
in increasing subsidence pops will continue to lower after sunrise.

Any continued lake effect snow showers will continue to decrease in
coverage through the mid morning on Thursday. Snow accumulations
from the lake effect snow should remain below an inch overnight
Wednesday night, with most of that falling early in the period.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens east of lake
ontario, and in the upper teens to low 20s across the rest of the
area. High temperatures on Thursday will be around 25 degrees below
normal. Rochester and buffalo could experience their top 5 coldest
thanksgivings on record.

Thursday night into Friday will start out with continued cold
temperatures from the arctic high over the area, but some warmer
temperatures will build into the area as the high shifts to the east
and a southerly flow establishes starting Friday morning. Lows on
Thursday night and Friday morning will be chilly once again with
temperatures in the single digits to near zero in the higher terrain
and in the low to mid teens closer to the lakes. Those who plan to
venture out shopping Thursday night and Friday morning should dress
appropriately for the cold conditions.

Friday high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s near the
lakes, and in the upper 20s to low 30s across the higher terrain.

The area should experience mostly cloud free conditions for most of
the day, with some clouds increasing in the late afternoon and
evening ahead of the next chance for precip starting overnight
Friday night.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The weekend continues to look unsettled with precipitation chances
increasing, but with milder temperatures. Upper level trough will
move slowly across the great lakes into the northeast conus,
eventually becoming negatively titled over the area. Surface low
over the carolinas will eventually push toward new york and new
england. Expecting mainly rain for precipitation type, but cannot
rule out pockets of mixed precipitation during the cooler overnight
and early morning periods. Highs should be mainly in the 40s over
the weekend, with overnight lows in the 30s.

A large area of low pressure will approach the area from the ohio
valley on Monday, with increasing chances for rain through the day.

Temperatures for Monday will once be in the low to mid 40s across
the area.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Lingering snow showers and attendant ifr restrictions east and
southeast of the lakes will generally continue to diminish this
afternoon and evening... With flight conditions generally improving
to a mix ofVFR and MVFR. This said... Some very limited lake effect
snow localized ifr may still persist into this evening near the
southeastern corner of lake ontario.

Later tonight and Wednesday morning a clipper system and stronger
cold front will push through the region. This system will bring
another general round of scattered to numerous snow showers...

and more significantly a round of briefly heavy lake effect snow
to areas east and northeast of the lakes. The heavier lake effect
snow will likely bring a few hours of lifr conditions to kbuf late
tonight and to kart late tonight and early Wednesday... Before quickly
moving southward and eventually weakening Wednesday morning. The
fringes of the lake erie lake snows may also bring a couple hours
of ifr to kiag kroc late tonight... With the remainder of the area
seeing primarily MVFR conditions.

In the wake of this next system... Lighter scattered to numerous
lake effect snow showers and attendant ifr MVFR will linger southeast
of the lakes Wednesday afternoon... With flight conditions outside
of these otherwise improving toVFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Mainly scattered snow showers and leftover
attendant ifr MVFR southeast of the lakes... OtherwiseVFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday... MVFR ifr in rain snow showers as a system
passes through or south of the region.

Marine
In the wake of an initial cold front... Brisk westerlies to
northwesterlies will prevail across the lower great lakes through
this evening... Before turning more southwesterly overnight. This
will result in continued small craft advisory-worthy conditions
through tonight.

After that... A clipper system and attendant stronger cold front will
cross the lower lakes region on Wednesday. This system will likely
bring a period of gales to lake ontario between very late tonight
and Wednesday... For which gale warnings have been issued. Meanwhile
on lake erie winds will be a little weaker... With high-end advisory-
level conditions expected. The winds will then gradually diminish
Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds into the
region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
nyz007-008-019-020.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
nyz006.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Wednesday for
nyz010-011.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
nyz012-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
lez020.

Gale warning from 5 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
loz042-043-062-063.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for loz044-
045-064-065.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for loz042-
043.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 am est
Wednesday for loz045.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for loz044.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Hitchcock jjr
short term... Sw
long term... Sw tma
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 23 mi32 min 45°F1013.7 hPa (-0.4)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi32 min NW 16 G 19 34°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.4)31°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 56 mi32 min 25°F 48°F1013.6 hPa (-0.6)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 97 mi32 min NW 15 G 19 35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY2 mi36 minNNW 62.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F27°F88%1014 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY17 mi96 minNW 61.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F29°F100%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3CalmNE3CalmNE4NE5NE5E4NE4NE5NE5NE6N6NE4CalmNW8NW6
1 day agoS3S5S5S6SE7CalmSE43S6SW3S5W4S3S6S7W6W7CalmW3W8W6SW7SW8W7
2 days agoW8W8W8W13
G22
NW8NW6NW7NW7N6NW7CalmCalmCalmSE3E4E4SE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.