Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oshkosh, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 6:21 PM CDT (23:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 7:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201903210530;;667911 Fzus53 Kgrb 202050 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 350 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-210530- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 350 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 20 2019
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kts backing N 10 to 15 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and a slight chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of flurries after midnight.
Thursday..NW wind 10 to 15 kts backing W in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Thursday night..NW wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts to 30 kts after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts to 30 kts in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oshkosh, WI
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location: 44.02, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 201931
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
231 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 229 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
relatively quiet weather expected for the next week. Temperatures
will be fairly close to seasonal normals, with just some
scattered light precipitation at times.

The blocky pattern over western north america and the eastern
pacific will undergo some changes in structure during the next
week, but basically remain in place. The main change across north
america will be a gradual strengthening of the southern stream
undercutting the block, though the bulk of the energy in the
southern stream will remain south of the area during the period.

Temperatures will undergo day to day variation, cooling to
somewhat below normal with the arrival of each fresh surge of
polar air and then warming to a little above normal as the air
mass moderates and the associated anticyclone departs off to the
east. The forecast area remaining between the main branches of
the flow or dominated by the northern stream favors only scattered
light precipitation at times.

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 229 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
a compact shortwave with strong QG forcing will swing through the
remainder of the area this evening. Will carry fairly high pops
for the remainder of the afternoon, then taper them back during
the evening. P-type will be a mix of rain and snow, with perhaps a
bit more snow than normal given the observed surface temperatures.

The frozen precipitation may be graupel across the southern part
of the area. Trended toward a little cloudier forecast for the
remainder of the night than we previously had going, as clouds
were rather extensive on mid-afternoon satellite imagery.

Some of the hi-res guidance was producing light precip over
north-central wisconsin Thursday afternoon as the next northern
stream shortwave arrives in the area. Opted to carry that as just
a trace event for now as the best forcing will pass through to the
north.

Based temperatures on a blend of recent top performing guidance
products, with some adjustments for recent biases.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 229 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
a relatively quiet pattern will be in place across the region over
this period, thanks to strong ridging over northwest north america,
and split flow across the conus, which will keep southern stream
systems south of the region for the most part. The only chance of
widespread precipitation looks to occur on Sunday when a southern
stream storm system attempts to push into the western great lakes.

No clear model preference for this forecast cycle, so will use a
blend of the GFS and ecmwf.

Thursday night through Friday night... Northwest flow will be
overhead during this period, while surface high pressure moves from
south-central canada on Thursday night and into the great lakes by
Friday night. Some clouds may linger along and behind a cold front
on Thursday evening, but moisture is relatively shallow and the
airmass is not all that cold behind it. Therefore cannot see much
more than a few flurries near the u.P. Border. Conditions should
should turn more blustery by late Thursday night into Friday morning
when a secondary shortwave dives across northern michigan. Colder
air should be moving in by this time, which could bring in some snow
showers off lake superior and into far northeast wi and the door
peninsula. Should then see decreasing clouds on Friday afternoon
into Friday night with the arrival of the surface high. High temps
should fall back into the 30s on Friday across northern wi. Clear
skies and light winds will set up a chilly night.

Rest of the forecast... The high pressure system looks to hang around
on Saturday and most of Saturday night. Will then be watching the
movement of a southern stream storm system for late Saturday night
into Sunday. This system will try to move into a very dry airmass
over the great lakes and possibly interact with a northern stream
cold front. If precipitation does overwhelm the dry air that will
be in place, amounts should be relatively light, perhaps a tenth to
a quarter inch at most. But the air originating out of a strong
high to the north could very well keep precip south of the area.

Canadian high pressure will then build into the region for early
next week, and push temps below normal while keeping the area dry.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1240 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
scattered rain and snow showers are expected this afternoon as a
strong shortwave crosses the region. Anticipate primarily MVFR
ceilings across the northwest part of the area, with ifr
conditions at times. Ceilings across east-central wisconsin will
probably drop down to MVFR for a time late this afternoon and this
evening as well.

Hydrology
Issued at 229 pm cdt Wed mar 20 2019
the forecast weather conditions for the next week may be about as
favorable as we could possibly get to minimize the flooding risk.

The snow cover over the far southern part of the forecast area
(south of ky50-katw-kgrb-ksue) is pretty much gone as far as
holding significant water that will melt into runoff. So the
concern in these areas is mainly water backing up due to ice jams
as the ice breaks up on the rivers. Areas farther north still
need to melt a lot of snow ice and move the water through the
river systems. Conditions during the next week will be favorable
for slow melting that will pose a minimal risk of flooding in the
short-term. The down side of that of course is that the prospect
for more serious flooding still exists at a later time, especially
if much warmer weather arrives along with significant rainfall.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Skowronski
hydrology... ... Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 50 mi22 min S 13 G 14 36°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.0)36°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 57 mi42 min S 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wittman Regional Airport, WI1 mi29 minNW 1110.00 miLight Rain39°F33°F79%1011.8 hPa
Appleton-Outagamie, WI17 mi37 minNW 910.00 miLight Rain37°F30°F75%1010.8 hPa
Fond Du Lac County Airport, WI18 mi29 minWSW 410.00 miLight Rain42°F36°F79%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from OSH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S6S8S8S9S9S7S8SW11SW10S10SW10SW8SW9S12SW11S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW3CalmW4SW4W4W3SW3SW3W5W545W6SW8
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2 days agoNW5W3NW6W6W7W6W5W83W4W5CalmW4W6W5W6W5W6W8W8W86W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.