Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM   Moonset 6:39 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LMZ543 Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 901 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am cdt Tuesday through Tuesday evening - .
Rest of the night - E wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - SE wind 10 to 20 kts decreasing to 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 kts. A chance of rain showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - S wind 5 to 10 kts veering W after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - W wind 5 to 10 kts veering ne 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
wave height forecast is for ice free areas.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 062307 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 607 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Relative humidity values in the 20s and 30s will continue for the rest of the afternoon into early this evening away from the bay and Lake Michigan. Recent rain, lack of strong gusty winds and continued green-up will limit fire weather concerns.

- Next round of showers and storms arrives Tuesday morning. Best chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and evening.
There is a marginal risk for severe storms generally south and west of a Merrill to Green Bay to Kewaunee line.

- Showers will again be possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with a few storms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly in central WI.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Mild and dry conditions were noted across the area this afternoon. Temperatures warmed into the middle 60s to lower 70s with humidity readings from the middle 20s to the 30s away from the bay and Lake Michigan.

For tonight, skies will start out mostly clear and then turn mostly cloudy overnight. The rain should off until after 12z on Tuesday. Easterly winds shouldn't allow for temperatures to fall off as much as light night. Lows should drop into the 40s to around 50.

On Tuesday, an upper level disturbance will bring the main band of rain into central and portions of north-central Wisconsin between 12z and 15z, and then across much of northeast Wisconsin between 15z and 18z. The progression of the rain may cause high temperatures across the north to occur during the morning before temperatures fall back due to the rain. Across the south, high temperatures should occur during the late afternoon as the steadier rain shifts to the northeast of the area.

As the first upper level disturbance moves northeast of the area during the afternoon which should result in subsidence behind it, a frontal boundary will move into the area resulting in some lift. There is still a lot of uncertainty in stronger storms Tuesday afternoon as the models continue to show scattered activity behind the main line and the main secondary shortwave doesn't arrive until 00z. Bufkit soundings not impressive with respect to the 0-6km shear 10 to 20 knots and CAPE of a few hundred J/KG. If stronger storms do form, the main risk would be large hail and damaging winds.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

Possible strong storms early Tuesday evening, gusty northeast winds on Thursday and potential for frost Thursday night are the primary impacts through the long term.

Not completely sure how things will look on Tuesday evening, but seems there is loose consensus that secondary shortwave emerging out of main upper low over the Dakotas will interact with built up instability in the afternoon to our west will result in area of decaying thunderstorms shifting into central WI during the evening before fading out as they move east-northeast across the rest of the area. Have highest pops early in the evening over the west tapering to chance pops east. Lingering chance pops through midnight then drop off late as drying trend takes hold. Did keep mention of a few showers north-central with deeper moisture and cool/moist low-level flow off Lake Superior. Marine fog that is expected to form later Tuesday will linger Tuesday evening south of Algoma before winds turn offshore/SSW.

Expect much of the region to turn dry Wednesday morning as drier air filters over the area behind an occluded front. mixed signals on whether additional showers or storms develop during peak heating on Wednesday afternoon. Canadian most on board as it drops a secondary trough in from the north to enhance the potential. For most part other primary models are dry, but ensembles do hint at some additional showers. Forecast for now will be dry in the morning with low-end chances during peak heating. So long as showers don't end up being too widespread in the afternoon, temps will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s most areas, though north-central which will remain on edge of more clouds and some showers off Lake Superior could stay in the upper 50s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, decent agreement of another wave of showers to mainly impact south half of the state as primary sfc low redevelops across the central and eastern Ohio Valley. Main impact will be cool and breezy conditions as northeast winds flow in off Lake Michigan. Many areas Thursday will see temperatures remain in the 50s.

Rest of the extended....Ensembles are trending toward a mostly dry Friday as a brief ridge of high pressure develops over the region. Depending on how much rain falls Thursday and how quickly clouds clear out Thursday night there is the potential for fog or frost to develop across northern WI with temperatures forecast to fall to or near freezing Friday morning. Will start to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as we get later into the week as our frost/freeze program will have started up in all areas by then. Temperatures should recover back into the 60s by Friday afternoon.

Models continue to show broad consensus with a quick moving short-wave passing over the region Friday night into Saturday that may bring another round of showers and a potential for thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will continue beyond this with the risk for at least some spotty showers lingering into Sunday and Monday as the system through Saturday is followed by another reinforcing cold front.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Tuesday. Wind shear will develop between 04-07z Tuesday and continue at times through Tuesday, although wind shear should diminish across central Wisconsin around 16z. A round of rain will move into central Wisconsin between 12z and 15z, and across north-central and northeast Wisconsin between 15z and 18z. CIGS will fall into the MVFR category and then into the IFR category late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, which could produce some gusty winds and small hail; however, confidence in coverage and timing is too low to include in this set of TAFs.

MARINE
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeast winds will increase Tuesday morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts possible. The cooler waters will create more stable conditions compared to land, so still some question just how much of the wind aloft will mix down over the lake. The persist southeast winds will produce building waves, especially south of Algoma on Lake Michigan, where waves will climb to around 4 feet Tuesday morning. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory to cover the potential. As dewpoints increase Tuesday afternoon, dense fog will be possible, which could linger into at least Tuesday evening.

Gusty and persistent northeast winds will bring a period of hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday night into Thursday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Green Bay, WI,