Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newcastle, ME

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Sunrise 4:53AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:11 AM EDT (13:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:04PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 900 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Areas of fog this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 900 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front lifts across the gulf of maine today with low pressure tracking east and sending the front back south as a cold front tonight. Another stronger low will track east through southern new england and across cape cod Friday morning with a northerly flow developing behind it. Northwest flow persists through the weekend as high pressure builds out of canada and through the east coast of the us. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newcastle, ME
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location: 44.03, -69.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 201252
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
852 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks east toward the area today with rain
developing. It will be cool with clouds and an onshore wind
keeping the temperature down especially along the coast. Low
pressure moves through the region tonight into Friday morning
with rain coming to an end through the day on Friday. A cool,
dry northwest wind brings nicer conditions for the weekend with
plenty of sunshine and temperatures gradually warming.

Near term until 8 pm this evening
852 am... At 12z a stationary front extended through rooftop of
maine into southeast quebec province. A second stationary
boundary from the upper midwest through mid atlantic region with
a series of weak waves situated along it. GOES water vapor
shows a shortwave impulse over lower lakes supporting an area of
convection over upstate new york. This impulse will race
northeast and bring a slug of heavy rainfall to the forecast
area mainly during the afternoon hours today per latest cams
solutions... As a band of precipitable water with values
approaching two inches advects north into the area. A second
impulse will bring additional round of showers and isolated
thunder to the area tonight. I've made adjustments to near term
grids to reflect latest radar trends and cams output as well as
the current mesonet for this estf update.

Prev disc...

530am update...

showers over southern new england have become a bit more
numerous and more likely to bring some light rain to coastal
areas early this morning so have adjusted hourly precipitation
chances to reflect this. Otherwise patchy dense fog continues
for coastal areas and will let the dense fog advisory continue.

Original discussion...

there are a couple of different ways to describe the forecast.

The simplest is to say it's going to be cool and rainy. The more
complicated version involves no less than two frontal
boundaries and three waves tracking through the region today and
tonight, each delivering another dose of rain with the focus
perhaps on a slightly different part of the area.

The first frontal boundary exists across the saint lawrence
valley and into northern maine this morning. Some isolated
showers with a lightning strike or two continue to be observed
in the far northern part of the forecast area this morning
associated with energy moving eastward along this front. Another
more potent wave will move east out of the great lakes today and
will bring a more widespread area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms again today as this front sinks slowly southward.

Another front is developing along the southern new england
coastline and will lift northward this morning into new
hampshire and maine. Some models generate a fair amount of
rainfall along the coast as this front lifts north today.

However, this may be a bit overdone as current radar imagery in
southern new england shows more of a widely scattered showers
scenario unfolding.

The northward moving southern front and southward moving northern
front will converge over our area today just as the first wave
of low pressure moves east through the area this afternoon and
evening. By evening expect just about everyone to be getting
wet. Some thunderstorms are possible as well as the abundant low
level moisture combines with the advancing upper trough to
generate some instability mainly along and south of the front.

Abundant cloud cover and an onshore southeast wind will keep
temperatures cool today. Many models indicate coastal areas of
western maine may struggle to even reach 60 degrees, however
dewpoints in the area area already near 60 so expect a few
degrees above 60 to be the high for most of western maine.

Further to the south and west the maritime influence will not be
as strong and temperatures could approach 70 degrees with plenty
of cloud cover.

Short term 8 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
While the first wave of low pressure moves east tonight, the
second will be tracking eastward across southern new york and
new england. So while we may see rain come to an end with the
first wave's departure, it will likely start up again by morning
as the second low moves by. The front will have been driven
southward behind the first low to a position across southern new
england and the gulf of maine, with the next low pressure
tracking east along it. Thus we will be entirely in the cool
sector of this cyclone with rain being most likely across
southern areas through Friday morning. Rain ends from west to
east as the day GOES on and the low moves out to sea. Behind it
a north to northwest flow develops with clouds breaking up and
departing. By afternoon the temperature will likely top 70
degrees for many areas especially along the coast where
offshore downsloping winds aid in low level mixing.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A narrow ridge of high pressure will start to build into the
area overnight Fri into sat. A seasonably strong pressure
gradient will set up across the area between the surface high
center and the departing low pressure over the maritimes.

Unsurprisingly ensemble forecast wind speeds in the low to mid
levels are higher than normal for this time of year. As we sit
around the solstice strong insolation will lead to deep mixing
over land. Forecast soundings indicate the potential to mix down
some gusts near 30 kt. I have bumped wind gust forecasts up to
between 25 and 30 kt at most locations sat. The strong
insolation will also lead to some afternoon convection nearer to
the upper low center where cooler temps reside aloft and steepen
lapse rates. That should be enough for some scattered showers
sat afternoon mainly across WRN me.

That stronger than normal flow is expected to linger into
sun... So I have also increased wind gusts forecasts for that
period as well... Albeit not as much as sat. Otherwise ridging
continues to build into the area... With decreasing winds and pop
and increasing temps. H8 temps are forecast to approach
15c... Which will mean 80s becoming more widespread across the
forecast area Sun into mon. As the ridging continues to progress
ewd the next widespread chance for rain will come tue. A S wv
trof ejecting from the four corners region will try and top the
ridge later tue. As it pushes a front towards the area it should
serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon.

Timing locally will determine how widespread the chances for
thunder area... And given the uncertainty I will keep the wording
at isolated to chance thunder.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
Short term... Expect ifr to lifr ceilings in a maritime air mass
across coastal maine and eastern new hampshire this morning
without much improvement as the day GOES on. In fact, rain
chances will be increasing as low pressure moves in from the
west. Generally expect a 1-3sm rainfall but with lifr ceilings
persisting in the onshore southeast flow along the coast. Some
thunderstorms are also possible especially across southern new
hampshire this afternoon and evening. There could be a break in
the rain late tonight before rain begins again early Friday
morning. Low pressure moves away on Friday with conditions
improving toVFR on a northerly wind.

Long term... Gusty NW winds are expected Sat behind departing low
pressure. Surface gusts to 30 kt are possible at all terminals.

Some afternoon diurnal shra are also possible nearer the upper
low center across WRN me. Local MVFR or lower conditions are
possible in any shra... But expect these conditions to remain
widely scattered. High pressure builds in Sun and holds over the
area into mon.VFR conditions will prevail.

Marine
Short term... Weak pressure gradient keeps winds fairly light
across the gulf of maine despite a warm front lifting in from
the south and waves of low pressure moving along it and the
front shifting south as a cold front again. The strongest of
these waves will move through Friday morning, emerging offshore
near CAPE cod. The northerly flow behind this low could approach
advisory levels on Friday, but confidence is not high enough to
issue a small craft advisory yet.

Long term... Offshore flow dominates the weekend. Tough call on
wind gusts... As deeper mixing over land makes higher wind gusts
more likely there than over the colder water. It would not take
much mixing to see SCA conditions... But for now the greater
likelihood is actually in the bays and near shore. Sustained
offshore flow may allow seas to reach 5 ft beyond 10 to 15 nm
regardless of wind speed gusts. High pressure and flow becoming
onshore will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish Mon and
into the early part of the work week.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Es


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 24 mi67 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 53°F2 ft1007.3 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 29 mi67 min E 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 54°F1 ft1008.4 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 45 mi59 min 56°F 56°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi81 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 56°F 56°F2 ft1007.2 hPa (+0.0)56°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME10 mi78 minSSE 42.50 miFog/Mist57°F55°F96%1008.4 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME23 mi75 minE 30.50 miFog55°F55°F100%1008.2 hPa
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME24 mi78 minSE 30.25 miFog58°F57°F100%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS645SE666S844S5CalmS3S534CalmCalmS3S4S4CalmSE3SE4SE4
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmSE5SE4Calm4SE43SE4S3SE3SW3S3SW3S3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmS3S4Calm
2 days ago5666--CalmSW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Newcastle, Maine
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Newcastle
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Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT     10.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     9.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.49.910.39.785.631.100.11.33.45.87.88.998.16.44.22.41.41.32.44.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
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Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:56 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:22 PM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.2-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.30.40.70.60.50.40.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.20.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.