Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Springfield, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 22, 2018 2:21 AM PST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:50PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 750 Pm Pst Wed Nov 21 2018
.gale warning in effect from 4 am pst Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 to 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early, becoming 45 kt in the late morning and early afternoon. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Rain.
Thu night..SW wind 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Fri..W wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Mon..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 12 ft.
PZZ200 750 Pm Pst Wed Nov 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong front will move across the waters Thursday resulting in a period of gale force winds and seas building into the mid teens. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Friday. A brief period of calmer conditions are possible over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, OR
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location: 44.05, -122.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220438 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion..Updated
national weather service portland or
838 pm pst Wed nov 21 2018

Synopsis A series of disturbances will move across the region
through the rest of the week. A stronger system moves inland late
Thursday through early Friday, bringing more rain and cascade snow.

Another system quickly follows late Friday into early Saturday,
before weak ridging develops over the weekend for relatively dry
conditions. However, the active pattern looks to pick up again early
next week.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... A few relatively minor
updates to QPF snow amounts for the coming days, utilizing the latest
high-res model guidance. The net impacts were rather minimal, but
with good agreement among the latest guidance, have refined the
timing of the next system's arrival into the region on Thursday
(reaching the coast by mid-morning and into the interior around
midday). Winds for the beaches and headlands along the coast were
also slightly increased, but confidence remains a little lower for
this portion of the forecast as the NAM remains a bit of an outlier
in the guidance. The 00z run shifted a bit south but maintains a sub
1000 mb low center into the coast. Will need to continue to match the
latest guidance with satellite trends as the system continues to
develop in the next 6-18 hours to better refine the forecast.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains well on track. The
remainder of the previous short term discussion remains valid and
follows below. cullen
as heights continue to lower Thursday and Thursday night, snow
levels are expected to drop to pass level, especially once the
front moves through in the afternoon. Expect 4 to 8 inches of snow at
the passes between Thursday and Thursday night, with the highest
amounts south. Don't think it will be quite enough to warrant a
winter weather advisory, but travelers across the cascade passes
starting Thursday should be prepared for typical november wintry
conditions.

Another strong shortwave follows Friday on the backside of the upper
trough with a warm front pushing in from the southwest. This should
lift snow levels a bit above most cascade passes on Friday. The wave
developing along the front deepens to about 1000 mb or so and remains
south of the CWA as it moves inland and weakens Friday morning. This
system is a fast mover and will be east of the area by
Friday evening with orographics driving precipitation in the
mountains and some rain shadowing for the interior lowlands. Models
have shown a little bit of a northward trend with the feature, so
it's worth keeping an eye on.

Upper ridging begins to move over the area Saturday, bringing a
general drying trend, but some models show a weaker ridge and are
keeping some showers around. Overall, at this point there's no
guarantee of a dry Saturday. Bowen

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... There is
disagreement between the GFS 12z and the ECMWF 12z Saturday night
through Sunday. The GFS 12z shows persistent instabilities at upper
levels which would bring scattered precipitation Saturday through
Sunday evening. However, the ECMWF 12z shows weak ridging which
keeps precipitation offshore until Sunday afternoon.

The models come into agreement by late Sunday, early Monday as a
shortwave ridge moves over the area. This will cause precipitation
to taper off for a short period of time before a more well defined
low moves into the area. This system will result in precipitation
throughout the long-term forecast.

Temperatures stay within seasonal norms with a chance of snow in the
cascades through Sunday and again on Wednesday. -bphillips

Aviation A series of frontal systems will continue to spread
rain across the forecast area for the next couple of days
bringing a mix of MVFR andVFR flight conditions. Expect mainly
MVFR conditions along the coast tonight, with a mix of high MVFR
to lowVFR CIGS in the interior.

Another front will move across the region Thursday resulting in
a mix of MVFR and low endVFR flight conditions under steady
rain and gusty southerly winds.

Pdx and approaches... Expect mainlyVFR CIGS through most of the
night, lowering to MVFR early Thursday morning. A stronger front
will move through the aerodrome on Thursday bringing steady rain
and gusty southerly winds. CIGS and vsby should remain low end
vfr on Thursday, lowering occasionally to MVFR in steady rain.

Tw 64

Marine The active weather pattern will continue for the next
couple of days as a series of frontal systems move across the
waters. Seas will run around 8 to 9 ft tonight, then begin to
rise into the mid teens on Thursday as a frontal system moves
through the waters.

Conditions will start to ramp up early Thursday as a stronger
frontal system moves across the waters. Models show solid gale
force winds with gusts around 45 kt developing by Thursday
morning. There is some hint of gusts near 50 kt (storm force),
south of newport Thursday morning that will bear watching. Latest
model run shows the surface low coming ashore just south of
florence, which is a little further south than previous models.

The track of the low south of florence gives me more confidence
for having solid gales vice storm force winds gusts in the
central waters. Seas will build into the mid to upper teens with
this front.

Winds look to fall below gale criteria by Thursday afternoon,
but will remain above 20 kt through most of Friday, with seas
staying up around 12 ft.

Current models are coming into better agreement over the weekend
for quieter weather on Saturday. Another, much weaker system will
cross the waters late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing
low-end small craft advisory winds. Seas will also gradually
fall through the weekend, finally dropping below 10 ft by Sunday
morning. Tw 64

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale warning from 4 am to 2 pm pst Thursday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 am to
6 am pst Thursday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm to
8 pm pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 70 mi34 min SSW 8 G 15 51°F1008 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 70 mi22 min S 16 G 19 51°F 1007.9 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR15 mi28 minSSW 95.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F46°F90%1009.2 hPa

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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Thu -- 12:08 AM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM PST     1.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM PST     7.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 PM PST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.75.54.83.72.72.122.53.75.16.57.37.46.75.43.71.90.5-0.3-0.40.31.63.24.6

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
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Thu -- 12:18 AM PST     7.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:45 AM PST     9.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 PM PST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.964.73.42.42.12.74.15.97.78.99.18.574.92.80.9-0.2-0.50.21.73.65.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.