Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Veneta, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:52PM Friday February 22, 2019 4:23 AM PST (12:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 242 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 7 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from 10 am pst this morning through this evening...
Today..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 14 seconds, subsiding to 6 ft at 13 seconds by the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt early in the evening. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Sat..W wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 10 ft at 13 seconds. Showers likely.
Sat night..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt, becoming 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun night..E wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves E 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. SW swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 242 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A quick moving and narrow frontal system will drop southward across the waters and result in a brief period of gusty winds today. A weak low pressure will then drift southward across the waters Saturday night and Sunday with few impacts.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Veneta, OR
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location: 44.05, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220516 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
916 pm pst Thu feb 21 2019
updated all sections, except long term

Synopsis High pressure over the area will shift southeast
tonight. The next weather system will drop south along the british
columbia coast late tonight and Friday. This system will spread
valley rain and mountain snow across the forecast area Friday. An
associated cold front will likely stall over west-central oregon
Friday night and Saturday. A surface low is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary Saturday night, which will reinforce the
existing frontal zone. This zone will resemble an atmospheric river,
potentially bringing significant rain and mountain snow to at least
some portion of northwest oregon Saturday night through Sunday
morning. At this time, the exact position of the frontal boundary
remains highly uncertain, but currently appears to be roughly
positioned over salem from southwest to northeast. North of the
frontal zone, there is potential for low elevation snow during this
time as well. The threat of low-elevation snow continues into early
next week.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... A couple of minor changes
to the forecast package covering tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Have warmed up tonight's low temperatures 1-2 degrees as the
invading cirrus appear to be buffering the radiational cooling
across the northern tier ever so slightly. Also decided to add some
patchy fog to the coast and adjoining coastal valleys as slightly
higher dew points are now reachable for what cooling is taking place.

Otherwise, no significant changes from the 00z runs of the NAM and
the gfs. Still appears that the primary precipitation shield will
cross the SW washington coastline near 15z (7 am) and the northern i-
5 corridor not until 18-20z (10 am-noon) when temperatures are
warmer. Still cannot completely rule out some stray low elevation
snowflakes in the air after daybreak but still do not feel these
will amount to much, if anything at all. Additionally, the 00z runs
of nam12 and GFS are showing a bit of the expected wobble drift with
regard to the position of the quasi-atmospheric river potentially
setting up somewhere over the area Saturday night and Sunday. The
nam is pushing the northern edge of the moderate precip a bit
further north to between salem and aurora, while the GFS is drifting
a bit further south to between salem and eugene. In contrast, the
00z canadian model keeps moderate rates well south and centered
south of the or ca border. And, it will be a few more hours before
we receive the comparable ECMWF run. As always under these
scenarios, we do not expect the fine details to be ironed out in the
weather models until just before the event arrives. Stay tuned folks.

Jbonk
previous short term discussion follows: the brief weather lull
continues tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase from the
northwest late tonight ahead of the next weather system. Water vapor
imagery early this afternoon showed this short-wave in the gulf of
alaska. Meanwhile, a deep, cold upper level trough was centered over
the great basin and desert southwest. The leading edge of the short-
wave is expected to reach SW washington around 12z fri. The 12z
models are in general agreement showing light QPF reaching sw
washington and the far N oregon coast between 12z and 15z Fri and
then spreading to clark county and the pdx metro area around 18z.

The initial precip could be a mix down to the valley floors fri
morning, especially in the SW washington lowlands and also n
willamette valley. Confidence is low for that scenario as models
agree precip will not occur until late morning, at the earliest.

The front will move quickly southeast, spreading precipitation across
much of SW washington by midday Friday and then northwest oregon in
the afternoon and evening. Expected QPF amounts would suggest snow
advisory amounts in the south washington cascades, mainly Friday
afternoon through early Sat morning. Will go with a winter weather
advisory for this potential. The south washington cascade foothills
will get close to advisory, but did not include that zone in the
highlight as snow levels should rise enough Friday afternoon and
evening to limit significant impacts. South to southwest surface
gradients strengthen Fri afternoon, which will lift snow levels to
1000 to 1500 ft in the north to 2000 feet in the southern interior
valleys.

Latest guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere
over west-central or southwestern oregon late Friday and Saturday
morning. Models then suggest the stalled frontal boundary begins to
interact with the subtropical branch of the jet stream Sat afternoon.

The exact location of this stalled boundary will have major
implications on the weekend forecast. The operational ecmwf, GFS and
nam all hint at some form of atmospheric river developing over sw
oregon Sat evening. Models vary on the placement of this enhanced
precip zone, but the NAM and GFS favor a florence to mt. Jefferson
line 12z sun. The ECMWF is much more south and has the heaviest qpf
confined to the south oregon and far north california coast. Will
trend the forecast toward the NAM gfs. These models paint 1 to 1.25
inch 6 hr QPF amounts along the baroclinic zone. Snow levels will
rise in the lane county cascades Sat night and sun, but remain well
below pass level. The colder air will be north of the baroclinic
boundary, but expected QPF should be less.

In addition, models suggest a surface low will develop along the
frontal boundary Sat night. The GFS indicates the low near florence
09z sun. The NAM is similar. The ECMWF has a hint of a low, but
closer to north bend or gold beach. Should the NAM or GFS verify,
there would be some degree of offshore low-level flow through the
gorge, resulting in the potential for snow near the valley floors
north of the surface low. If the baroclinic boundary ends up slightly
more north, it could result in significant snow for the cascade
foothills and columbia gorge and upper hood river valley. There is
plenty of uncertainty from Sat night through early mon. Thus, am not
inclined to issue any highlights at this time, other than the winter
storm watch for the oregon cascades. Weishaar

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... The forecast for next
week remains complicated due to significant model differences so, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, will continue to use a blend
of models rather than a single deterministic model. The general trend
is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next
week, with a threat of low elevation snow, generally north of salem,
early next week. As of now, suspect that we will probably see a mix
of rain and snow at the lowest elevations, but would not be
surprised if areas below 1000 ft wake up to snow Monday morning.

Confidence in the forecast is even lower as we go through the week,
but if today's 12z ECMWF run verifies we could see the return of
warmer and sunnier weather towards the middle of next week. 64

Aviation An incoming front will result in ceilings lowering
from northwest to southeast across the area on Friday. Expect a
2-4 hour period of MVFR conditions as a band of moderate rain
drops southeastward across the area. Once the front pushes
through any given site, expect conditions to return to
predominantlyVFR conditions as the lower atmosphere
destabilizes.

Kpdx and approaches... An incoming front will result in lowering
ceilings, likely into MVFR thresholds and a band of moderate
rain moving over the terminal towards 21z Friday to 00z Saturday.

Thereafter, the atmosphere should destabilize with a transition
back towards predominantlyVFR conditions through 06z Saturday.

Neuman

Marine Seas should continue to drop overnight and should be
solidly below 10 ft for several hours late tonight and during the
first half of Friday. However, a cold front will drop southeastward
across the waters on Friday, which will result in increasing
southwesterly winds ahead of it across the waters. This should
bring small craft advisory level wind gusts of 25 kt to the
northern waters Friday morning into at least the early afternoon.

The front will be weakening as it moves southward, but should
still be strong enough to produce a period of gusty winds in the
central oregon waters late Friday morning through Friday
afternoon. Seas should respond accordingly and climb back up
towards 10 ft late Friday. Winds should then be rather quiet
across the waters over the weekend. This trend appears likely to
continue into early next week, but there is an outside chance a
strengthening low pressure system currently projected to move
into the southern oregon coast, could move farther north and
bring a surge in southerly winds to the south of its track late
Sunday night into Monday. Another weak low pressure may drop
southward out of british columbia during the middle of next week,
which could result in a multi-day stretch of easterly winds
across the waters later next week. Neuman

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
night for cascades in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory from noon Friday to 3 am pst Sunday for
south washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 6 am to 5 pm pst Friday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 3 am pst Friday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 10 am to 9 pm pst Friday
for coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 am to
9 am pst Friday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 pm to
9 pm pst Friday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 am to
10 am pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 54 mi42 min E 8 G 8.9 35°F 51°F1020.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 54 mi24 min E 5.1 G 6 33°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.0)
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 66 mi54 min 50°F8 ft

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR8 mi30 minS 510.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N10N9N10N9N8N9NE7N9NE10NE9NE7N10N7NE4NW4CalmS3S4S3S7SW5SW5S5
1 day agoSW5S3S4W4SW5SW9SW6SW6CalmNW3W6SW8SW4S65
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2 days agoS5SW3S4SE6S5S8S8S8S9SW6S10S11S11S10S8S8S10S10SW11SW7SW6W4--W3

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Fri -- 02:51 AM PST     7.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:00 AM PST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:50 PM PST     6.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:17 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.95.66.87.16.55.43.82.31.30.91.32.445.56.56.96.45.23.620.80.10.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM PST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     7.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:22 PM PST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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67.47.97.56.24.52.81.61.11.42.64.35.97.27.77.264.32.510.20.31.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.