Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elba, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:54PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:22PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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location: 44.05, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 202301
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
601 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Short term (tonight through Thursday)
issued at 230 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
the main forecast concern in the short term will be a heavy rain
threat into the overnight hours for southwestern portions of the
forecast area. An upper level low continues to rotate centered on
the nebraska south dakota border. A vorticity MAX will rotate
through the base and northward across western iowa, developing a
surface low across the same area. Model trends over the last 12
hours have been to shift everything a bit north, meaning higher
chances for precipitation in the forecast area, as a warm front
extending eastward from the surface low slides in. Given cloud
cover across much of the area, instability is lacking, so would
expect any convection moving in along the warm front to quickly
die as it moves north, and this is reflected well in cam
solutions. That said, warm cloud depths of 4000+ m and
precipitable water values just under 2 inches indicate heavy rain
potential, even after convection dies and precipitation becomes
more stratiform in nature. Had tossed around the idea of a flash
flood watch, but latest guidance suggests the greatest threat
would be just west of the forecast area, closer to the surface
low, so elected to hold off and go with an esf. However, some
areas could still see some localized flooding, especially those
areas that are already fairly wet from recent rainfall.

The low will slide southeast across iowa on Thursday, with rain
on the north side remaining in the forecast area for much of the
day, mainly south of interstate 94. Have raised pops to reflect
this. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s under the precip cloud cover and upper 70s to the
north where more Sun will be seen.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 230 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
for Thursday night thru Saturday night: main fcst concerns are
continued shra tsra chances and rain amounts, mainly south, thu
night into Fri morning.

Model runs of 20.12z in reasonable agreement for the mid level low
to track SE toward kstl by 12z fri, then remain a closed circulation
as it moves toward lake erie by 12z sat. Improving consensus for
troughing to linger over the western great lakes Sat sat night as
more shortwave trough energy comes across the northern plains and
into the region. Thu night thru Sat night fcst confidence is average
to good this cycle.

The mid level low track Thu night Fri favors more northerly of the
earlier solutions. On this track, the deformation band wrap around
moisture lift continue to translate across roughly the south 1 2 of
the fcst area Thu evening, gradually diminishing exiting later thu
night into Fri evening as the mid level circulation moves south then
east of the area. Pw values remain in the 1.5 inch range Thu evening
before beginning to decrease later Thu night. Heavier shra and any
tsra Thu evening will continue to be efficient rain producers and
will have to watch for a continued locally heavy rain threat across
ne ia SW wi thru Thu evening. Circulation staying more of a closed
500mb low as it passes Fri does look to provide a better end to the
precip drying across the area Fri fri evening as the system exits.

Trend of generally dry Fri night Sat looks good with weak sfc-mid
level ridging and some subsidence moving across the region. By sat
night the next shortwave trough is already approaching with an
increase of moisture and weak lift. Some small consensus shra tsra
chances Sat night ok for now. Blend of below normal guidance highs
fri (plenty of lingering clouds) then near normal with some sunshine
sat look good.

For Sunday thru Wednesday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this
period are increasing shra tsra chances Mon night into wed.

20.00z medium range models in good agreement for hgts to be rising
over the upper midwest Sun as the pattern progresses and ridging
aloft builds across central noam. Models remain consistent on a more
significant shortwave trough energy to come thru the mid level
ridging into the region Tue wed. Fcst confidence is average to good
on the large scale features, but remains average on the day 4-7
details.

Model consensus has at least modest CAPE over the area on sun, under
lingering mid upper level cyclonic flow and soundings showing
steeper low mid level lapse rates. Small consensus shra tsra chances
sun, even as hgts rise, ok for now. Monday still trends as the
driest day of the next week with the stronger sfc thru mid level
ridging over the region. Some signal for a shortwave ahead of the
troughing moving thru the ridging to approach later mon, but low
level E SE flow out of a stronger sfc high over the great lakes
should shove the bulk of the lower level moisture CAPE west of the
area. Moisture plume remains in place ahead of the approaching
low trough for Tue wed, and is progged to quickly spread back into
the area Mon night. Increasing moisture instability lift as a mid
level trough would move across the region, consensus shra tsra
chance in the 20-50% range by later Mon night into Wed reasonable at
this time. Day 4-7 consensus highs near to a bit below normal appear
well trended.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 601 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
with upper low going by to the south, area remains locked in ifr to
MVFR conditions with continued east flow that is holding stratus
deck steady, in addition to occasional light rain or drizzle. Also
watching band of convection moving north into area ahead of low that
may mix conditions a bit and actually cause some improvement.

Big picture shows upper low diving southeast next 24 hours, and with
that drier northeast flow should make for improving conditions as
rain threat ends on Thursday and ceilings begin to improve as well.

Hydrology
Issued at 230 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
showers and thunderstorms will move into southwestern portions of
the area this evening and persist through Thursday. 1 to 2 inches
of rainfall is expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

With relatively wet ground, much of this rainfall will run off
into area streams and rivers, possibly leading to some localized
flooding. One area of particular concern is western mower county
in southeast minnesota, where near 3 inches of rain fell Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

In addition, some minor flooding is expected along portions of
the mississippi river due to upstream rainfall in the past week.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... Ca
long term... Rrs
aviation... Shea
hydrology... Ca


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winona, Winona Municipal Airport-Max Conrad Field, MN16 mi60 minE 410.00 miOvercast70°F62°F78%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from ONA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E3E3E3E5E3E6E3E5E4SE4SE5E3E3E4E5E5E4E3E5SE11SE4SE4E4
1 day agoE5E3E4E8E7SE8E6E8E7SE12
G17
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2 days agoSW3CalmW3E3CalmNW3CalmW6CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N4CalmN4CalmN5N5N6NE4NE5NE6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.