Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elba, MN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:54PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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location: 44.05, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 202336
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
636 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 234 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
a ridge of surface high pressure will slowly depart eastward
tonight. One weak shortwave is crossing into the area this afternoon
into this evening, associated with a broken band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms stretching from eastern north dakota to into
northeast iowa. This line of convection will encounter a less
favorable airmass as it progresses eastward, running into less
available moisture and instability. This correlates well with latest
radar and hi-res model trends, which show the line diminishing in
intensity and coverage as it progresses through the forecast area
this afternoon. Activity should largely fizzle out early this
evening as heights begin to rise aloft in the face of a building
upper ridge overhead. Lows tonight generally in the 50s.

Another couple shortwaves are progged to round the top of this
ridge, one pushing through the forecast area Friday morning and a
second one late Friday night. These perturbations will interact with
an increasingly moist airmass as cyclonic flow over the northern
plains draws a feed of gulf moisture northward. Pwats are progged to
climb in excess of 1.5" across our southwestern zones by Friday
night as the strongest moisture transport glances by to our south.

Low to mid level lapse rates across our forecast area look too poor
to support any appreciable instability here during the day Friday,
but there will be marginal elevated instability. Hi-res models are
in decent agreement with a cluster of elevated convection morphing
into somewhat of a line as it enters western ia toward daybreak,
diminishing as it rolls through the southern half of the forecast
area Friday morning. Being elevated, wouldn't expect this activity
to pose a severe risk for us. With plenty of residual cloud cover
expected, Friday's highs will be in the low to mid 70s.

Depending on the model, elevated instability may increase enough
Friday night to support a threat for isolated elevated hailers south
of i-90 as the other weak shortwave passes through. Given the weak
forcing, confidence remains low in this possibility, but if storms
develop (and the elevated instability indeed manifests), suppose a
few could become strong to severe with 30-50 knots of 0-6km bulk
shear expected to be in place. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible given the rich pwats and warm cloud depths approaching 3500
to 4000 meters.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 234 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
the upper ridge will continue to amplify as it pushes east over the
weekend. Surface low pressure will lift into iowa on Saturday with a
cold front extending eastward and an occluded front extending
northward. These features will be the focus for shower and storm
development on Saturday. Depending on how far north the warm front
progresses, the instability gradient could sit right on our southern
doorstep, but models continue to show strong capping overhead on
Saturday which makes storm potential quite uncertain at this point.

Deep layer shear of 30-40 knots will be in place north of the front,
so if storms can develop they would have a decent potential of
becoming somewhat better organized in the better elevated
instability south of i-90. Locally heavy rain will remain a
potential threat given pwats in the 1.5 to 2" range and deep warm
layer cloud depths.

The low will slowly progress northeast heading into Sunday, with
abundant gulf moisture continuing to advect into the area. The
"sticky" factor will definitely be on the increase as dewpoints
climb through the 60s, perhaps hitting 70 in a few locations. Expect
continued rounds of showers and storms on Sunday with this moist,
unstable airmass in place, but moisture transport will drift off to
the east by Monday as an upper low passes overhead. Flow then
becomes more zonal heading into the middle of next week. This will
likely lead to a less-active pattern overall, but with occasional
weak disturbances still providing small rain chances here and there.

Highs will range from the 70s to low 80s over the weekend and are
then poised to climb into the mid 80s by midweek.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 636 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
the band of showers moving across southeast minnesota is expected
to dissipate pretty rapidly this evening. However, enough remains
on radar to justify including a vcsh at both airports for a couple
of hours until the showers are gone. More showers storms expected
to approach from the southwest late tonight as a convective
complex forms over nebraska and rolls east across iowa. The hi-res
meso-scale models suggest this activity will remain south of both
airports Friday morning so do not plan to include any mention of
rain. Otherwise, looking atVFR conditions through Friday with
some occasional mid-level ceilings.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... Kurz
long term... Kurz
aviation... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winona, Winona Municipal Airport-Max Conrad Field, MN16 mi12 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F55°F60%1010.2 hPa

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Last 24hrNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmNE3CalmW3
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE6N3NE6E7N4E3NE4NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmN5N5N3N3NW6NW5NW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.