Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday August 20, 2017 10:17 AM CDT (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, MN
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location: 44.05, -92.49     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 201152
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
652 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 257 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
regional radars this morning are showing a convective complex over
eastern nebraska into western iowa. A MCV is expected to form from
this complex with the 20.05z rap indicating this will travel
east northeast into southern wisconsin by early afternoon. The low
level moisture transport will weaken after sunrise but the rap
suggests it will continue to stay focused just ahead of the mcv
which would bring it across the southern sections of the forecast
area by late morning and into the early afternoon. The rap along
with the 20.05z hrrr and 20.03z cr-hrrr all bring the northern
remains of the convective complex across the southern parts of the
forecast area and have adjusted the rain chances to show the best
chances today across this area to account for this. How much
thunder will occur is still somewhat questionable as there is
little to no CAPE over the area at this time and as the clouds
spread in after sunrise, there will not be much of an opportunity
for rapid heating, so would only expect weak CAPE to develop which
should limit the thunder threat.

Once this MCV moves past the area, subsidence should set in and
limit additional development through the remainder of the
afternoon. Not willing to go totally dry at this point as another
short wave trough, currently over north dakota, will be working
east into northern wisconsin. This wave will push a weak cold
front into the area, which could help serve as a focus for some
additional afternoon development, but the meso-scale models and
the 20.00z NAM and ECMWF all indicate additional development along
the front will wait until this evening. There are some
suggestions that there may be another weak short wave trough in
the zonal flow aloft that comes out of montana and wyoming to
interact with the front. The low level moisture transport
increases this evening in response to this short wave trough with
showers and storms forming along the front.

This activity is expected to weaken move out of the area Monday
morning before the next round of convection starts to develop
during the afternoon. The models are now suggesting a short wave
trough coming out of the southwest u.S. Monsoon flow will get
caught in the main band of westerlies and come across the region
to interact with the front. Another surge in the moisture
transport will occur ahead of this wave and cause showers and
storms to form as the frontal boundary will still be over the
area. Where the boundary is located in the late afternoon and
evening will determine where any severe threat will reside. South
of the front, ml CAPE values up to 2000 j kg should be in place
with 0-3 km shear around 30 knots. This should be sufficient to
support the possibility of some severe storms with damaging winds
the main threat. While some hail will likely occur, this threat
will be mitigated by the warm cloud depths of 3.5 to 4 km. A qlcs
tornado could also be a concern with 0-1 km shear values around 20
knots.

This system will finally get pushed east of the area late Monday
night into Tuesday morning as a long wave trough from an upper
level low moving across ontario sweeps across the upper midwest.

Clearing will occur Tuesday afternoon in the wake of this long
wave trough and as ridging starts to build in over the region.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 257 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
behind the departing long wave trough, ridging will form over the
rockies and push east out onto the high plains through Thursday.

This ridging then looks to start weakening Friday and by Saturday
the flow looks to become northwest as troughing forms from an
upper level low crossing the canadian rockies. The low level
ridging looks to remain over the great lakes through Friday with
some model differences whether it is still over the area Saturday
or farther east. The 20.00z ECMWF is quicker to move the ridging
east which allows some rain from the approaching trough to start
spreading over the area during the day.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 651 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
scattered showers will be found across southeast minnesota and
northeast iowa this morning. This may affect krst through 20.12z.

The meso models than suggest that the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be northwest and south of the area through
tonight. Due to this, kept the ceilings and visibilitiesVFR.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... 04
long term... 04
aviation... Boyne


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Rochester International Airport, MN10 mi23 minSSW 1010.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1015.5 hPa
Dodge Center Airport, MN18 mi24 minSSW 710.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from RST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW6W6SW7SW76S8SW8SW6S5S5SE5S6S5SE6S7S7S7S7S8S7S8S8S10
1 day agoNW7NW6W8W8W9SW7SW5S3W4S3SW4SW5CalmSE3E4E3SW5W3SW5S6SW4CalmSW7SW7
2 days agoW13
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W10NW8NW9NW8NW7NW7W7NW6W7NW7NW6W5N5W6W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.