Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:35PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, MN
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location: 44.05, -92.49     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 182340
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
540 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 148 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
a fairly quiet day was seen across the region today aside from some
gusty southerly winds, as the area Sat in a pretty strong pressure
gradient with low pressure to the west and high pressure to the
east. Despite the warm air advection, temperatures were not warming
quite as quickly as anticipated, possibly owing to a decent amount
of cirrus.

Otherwise, the main forecast concern for the short term period is
precipitation Wednesday morning through Thursday. Models remain in
good agreement of some weak shortwave energy sliding into the area
Wednesday morning, providing enough lift for some light
precipitation. However, model soundings indicate a warm, dry layer
from around 850-600 mb being present much of the day, keeping
saturation in the lowest levels to a depth of 1 km or less (i.E. Not
very favorable for even drizzle to fall). That said, there are times
the dry layer does saturate, so could see some occasional light
rain. As far as freezing drizzle rain chances go, clouds tonight are
expected to keep temperatures near or above freezing across much of
the area, so thinking road temperatures will generally stay warm
enough to prevent any widespread icing. Could still see some in the
favored cold spots though (along and north of interstate 94) at
precip onset (Wednesday morning), where lows could dip just below
freezing. Despite the cloud cover Wednesday, temperatures should
warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A bit stronger shortwave trough along with a surface boundary will
then move in Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model soundings
indicate much deeper saturation as these move through, but only for
a brief period, as they look to move through fairly quickly. The
warm layer aloft does look to cool a bit, but still stays above
freezing, so thinking mainly rain drizzle will fall, though could
see a brief period of light snow (little to no accumulation). There
is a loss of ice in the cloud layer on the back side of the system,
which could lead to another quick shot of freezing drizzle rain in
the early morning hours while temperatures are below freezing, but
overall everything looks to dry out fairly quickly, so not expecting
much if any impact from this. Precipitation should be to the east by
early afternoon Thursday, leaving the forecast area under
northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface. This will lead to
slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the 30s.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 148 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
for the rest of the week and into early next week, the
predictability looks rather low. After the system that departs
Thursday, good agreement that upper level ridging will build
briefly over the central part of the country for Friday. After
that, the model solutions start to diverge which results in just
some on and off low precipitation chances. The first of these
chances will come Friday night into Saturday morning. A short wave
trough is expected to track across the upper midwest with the
18.12z GFS being stronger and taking a track across the area while
the 18.12z ECMWF is weaker and farther north. The rest of the
weekend could be dry, although the models are suggesting a dirty
zonal flow pattern so again, confidence is on the low side.

Predictability really GOES down hill for next week as the ecmwf
brings a wave in off the pacific over the weekend and holds this
together as it crosses the rockies into the midwest for a
potential weather maker christmas day. The GFS is much, much
weaker with the wave and passes it across the region without any
precipitation. Plenty of time to see what happens as the potential
wave is currently wrapped up in an upper level low over eastern
russia.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 540 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
llws will continue at klse through around 09z tonight. Otherwise,
low level moisture gradually increases late tonight into Wednesday
morning with low stratus and fog moving in, mainly after 11z. Plan
on conditions falling to ifr at krst and MVFR at klse. Ceilings
are expected to fall to around 600 ft, possibly lower, at krst
around 12z and the low ceilings will stick around through much of
the day. At klse, look for the low stratus to move in by 15z with
ceilings falling to around 2kft, possibly closer to 1kft. Light
drizzle is also possible at times Wednesday morning between 11z
and 18z and could freeze to cold surfaces before temperatures
warm. However, the TAF sites look to stay above the freezing mark
through much of the TAF period.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ia... None.

Short term... Ca
long term... 04
aviation... Wetenkamp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Rochester International Airport, MN10 mi67 minS 1210.00 miFair36°F30°F82%1011.5 hPa
Dodge Center Airport, MN18 mi66 minS 1210.00 miFair37°F30°F75%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from RST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S10S11S12S13S13S12S12S13S13S12S19S17S18S14S15S10S7S3S9S5S8S12
1 day agoW13W12W11W10W10NW9NW11NW11NW8NW8NW4NW6NW6NW4CalmSE3--SE3S3E4E3SE7SE8SE8
2 days agoS13S11S12S12S11SW12SW9W9W8W9W10W10W12W15W13W14NW14NW9W8W9W9W12W12W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.