Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, MN

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:13PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:19 AM CDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, MN
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location: 44.05, -92.49     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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Fxus63 karx 191540
afdarx
area forecast discussion
national weather service la crosse wi
1040 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Issued at 1024 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
adjustments were made to the flash flood watch to add all of
northeast iowa and southwest wisconsin into the watch. Looking
through a few runs of the rap this morning and what the hrrr has
been doing, suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall has the
potential to set up along and south of the iowa border. The rap is
showing strong low level moisture transport coming into the warm
front and focusing on northeast iowa into southwest wisconsin for
much of the evening and overnight hours. This lines up well with
an area of strong moisture convergence and an axis of precipitable
water amounts of 2 inches or more. Warm cloud depths through the
evening and overnight will be in the 4 to 4.5 km range. All this
is pointing to the potential for flash flooding overnight along
and south of the iowa minnesota border. We will continue to
message rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range, but this may be
on the conservative side.

Short term (today through Thursday morning)
issued at 357 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
at 3 am, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
occurring north of interstate 94. These were associated with a
short wave trough moving east across northern wisconsin. While
this system was not handled well by the 19.00z models, it
continues to move progressively and these showers and storms will
exiting the area by sunrise.

At the same time this is occurring, another short wave trough
will be approaching the area from the northern plains. The
infrared satellite loop is showing that the cloud tops are rapidly
across southeast south dakota. The cam models are in generally
agreement that this system will move east as a linear line between
19.13z and 19.19z. This line will be mainly south of interstate
94. With weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, not anticipating any severe
weather with it. Rainfall amounts will be mainly under a half
inch. However, there could be some localized higher amounts.

By late this afternoon into the early evening, the 850 mb moisture
transport will be dramatically increasing as a short wave trough
approaches the region. This will be focused into and north of the
warm front which will be located across northern iowa and northern
illinois. Precipitable water values will climb to around
1.8 inches which is 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. In
addition, warm cloud layer depths will be around 4 km. Due to
this, the showers and storms will be highly efficient rain
producers. Expect a 2 to 4 inch band (localized higher totals
likely) of rain somewhere near the interstate 90 corridor from
tonight into Thursday morning. With this area already seeing rain
on Monday night, opted to issue a flash flood watch from 6 pm
tonight through noon Thursday. In addition to the flooding threat,
there will be enough elevated instability and sufficient shear
for a few storms to become severe. The main threat will be hail,
but considering the amount of moisture could not rule out a wet
microburst.

Long term (Thursday afternoon through Tuesday)
issued at 357 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
on Thursday afternoon, the models continue to show that a warm
front will move northward through southern minnesota and central
wisconsin. Like the past couple of days, there will be sufficient
deep shear for the development of discrete supercells in the warm
sector across iowa and southern minnesota. This will eventually
evolve into a squall line as cold front moves through the region
on Thursday evening. The main severe weather threats will be
damaging winds and large hail. In addition, there will be a threat
for isolated tornadoes along the warm front.

On Saturday morning, temperatures will fall into the mid 30s in
central and north-central wisconsin. This will result in the
development of patchy frost. This was added to the forecast grids.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 614 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
ceilings and reduced visibilities in fog will fluctuate between
ifr and MVFR for much of the morning. A broad area of rain and
thunderstorms over northern iowa and southern minnesota will
weaken as it continues to move east this morning, although
lingering thunder will still be possible at TAF sites by late
morning. Other storms are expected to develop this afternoon, with
several rounds likely to affect TAF sites through the remainder
of the period.

Hydrology
Issued at 357 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
it continues to look like a 2 to 4 inch band of rain will be found
near the interstate 90 corridor. With this being consistent signal
in the models over the past couple of days, a flash flood watch
was issued from 6 pm tonight through noon Thursday.

Arx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flash flood watch from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday
afternoon for wiz032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

Mn... Flash flood watch from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday
afternoon for mnz079-086>088-094>096.

Ia... Flash flood watch from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday
afternoon for iaz008>011-018-019-029-030.

Update... 04
short term... Boyne
long term... Boyne
aviation... Dd
hydrology... Boyne


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Rochester International Airport, MN10 mi25 minNE 710.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1016.2 hPa
Dodge Center Airport, MN18 mi24 minNNE 44.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F94%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from RST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S11
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SW4W3N4N4NW6NE3NE5NE5NE5NE4E6SE9SE5E5E6E6SE9SE9SE7S3SE9
1 day agoW6SW7W7SW10
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SE6SE5S5N6NW4NW3NE5NE7SE5NE4E5N5SE9SE9W10
2 days ago--S12S9
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S8S7S6S6S8SE7S6S7S8S7S7S7S7S7SW7SW9SW9
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.