Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, MN
May 19, 2024 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 3:51 PM Moonset 2:44 AM |
FXUS63 KARX 191210 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 710 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread tonight and continuing into Monday. Some risk for severe storms overnight and Monday morning (2-5%).
- Increasing confidence for severe thunderstorm potential with the Enhanced Risk (a 3 on the 0 to 5 SPC risk scale) now for much of the region Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Overview:
The cold front came through during peak heating. Temperatures maxed out in the 80s to around 90 degrees. Surface dewpoints were generally in the 50s to lower 60s as expected and the HRRR with stronger shear ended up verifying better. With steeper lapse rates, heating being maximized, and the 12 deg C. 850mb dewpoints pooled ahead of the front, the storms were perkier with warnings being issued and large hail reported across parts of west central WI (Trempealeau, Jackson, Taylor, Clark, and Richland counties)
especially from 2030Z to 2330Z.
Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed a closed low over Ontario westward toward Alberta with troughing extending southward into the Plains and southwest U.S. Lightning was noted ahead of the cold front over the Great Lakes with another convective complex moving out of Colorado into the Plains. The MPX 19.00 sounding had dried out with 0.54" of precipitable water. The latest subjective surface analysis had the cold front over eastern WI with surface high pressure building in. Dewpoints were in the 30s and 40s with temperatures in the 50s. Skies were generally clear locally, however clouds were mushrooming over parts of Nebraska and Kansas with the convective complex there. By 09Z the complex had made it to GRI/HSI.
Through Monday Night:
Within the southwest flow aloft, we'll see a shortwave trough track across the Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by 03Z tonight. On its heals, a couple other shortwaves in the flow will continue lifting northeast across the same region overnight into Monday. A seasonably strong 105kt upper level jets across the northern U.S. with provide upper level support with a strengthening low level jet over the Plains working east overnight (35 to 45kts)
into Monday morning. Precipitable water values initially around 0.2" (50% of normal) today increase to 1.5 to 1.75" (150-200% of normal)by 09Z through 18Z Monday before decreasing.
Through the day today, forecast soundings/timesections show top down moistening with areas of shear increasing 40 to 60kts within a low CAPE environment. 850-700mb warm advection increases 21Z to 00Z and continues into Monday. Moisture transport vectors ramp up 03-06 and gradually shifting in a southern IA to Lake MI areas through the day Monday.
The latest CAMs show the convection over the western High Plains lifting northeast to the Missouri River Valley by 12Z, but differ on the coverage as it moves toward the local area, generally weakening as it lifts northeast into the drier air, but some showers working into the forecast area by mid afternoon and into west central WI by late afternoon or early evening. Instability remains limited farther north with some 250J/kg creeping into the south by 03Z increasing to 1250J/kg for parts of northeast IA by 06Z. As a result, mainly showers with thunder potential increasing with the increasing instability and low level jet. Isolated storms per the CAMs/HRRR show some potential for gusty winds and hail.
At this time, there is some risk due to the instability (MLCAPE 500-1000J/kg in northeast IA) and high shear during the overnight hours. The HRRR shows some low probabilities for 1" per hour rainfall rates (10-20%) Monday morning for parts of Taylor Co. and Grant Co. 13-14Z with the warm front lifting north. The EC/GFS/Canadian ensemble probabilities are 30-60% for 0.5" or more with the higher probabilities of 70% just north of the forecast area. The latest flash flood guidance for 6hr is 2-3". The HRRR Max 6hr shows the potential for localized 1.5-4" amounts possible both in NE IA and just to the northwest of the forecast area, so will want to monitor if storms repeat over the same area.
Severe weather/heavy rain potential Tuesday:
There continues to be decent model agreement that a stronger trough over the Plains Tuesday becomes negatively tilted and lifts northeast with deepening surface low pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Vally Tuesday. Moderate instability of 2500 to 3500 J/kg is progged (EFI-extreme forecast index-values with 60 to 80% higher than the climate max) with deep layer shear of 55kts+. The current Colorado State University machine learning probabilities/CIPS analogs show the ingredients for severe weather coming together across eastern a large area of the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. A large portion of our forecast area is included in an enhanced risk (3 of 5) for severe weather Tuesday. There remain difference in the frontal details along with timing and strength differences and the model precipitation forecasts vary greatly. The EC/GFS/Canadian ensemble probabilities are 50-70% for 0.5" or more with the higher probabilities of 90% just northwest of the forecast area.
We will continue to monitor the severe weather potential and the potential for heavy rain. Continue to stay tuned for forecast updates.
Not as warm today through Tuesday with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. More seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions have prevailed this early morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies, with some higher level clouds beginning to move eastward towards the region. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through much of the day time today ahead of increasing shower and thunderstorm chances tonight.
Have introduced showers at both KLSE and KRST, but with lower confidence in exact timing and coverage of thunder potential have not included that with this issuance. Expect there will be updates to refine timing and thunder potential in the following issuances as confidence increases. Otherwise, southeast winds will be light through the day. Will note that some model guidance is hinting at the potential for MVFR ceilings late/beyond the forecast period (20-50%), so will continue to monitor trends through the day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 710 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread tonight and continuing into Monday. Some risk for severe storms overnight and Monday morning (2-5%).
- Increasing confidence for severe thunderstorm potential with the Enhanced Risk (a 3 on the 0 to 5 SPC risk scale) now for much of the region Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Overview:
The cold front came through during peak heating. Temperatures maxed out in the 80s to around 90 degrees. Surface dewpoints were generally in the 50s to lower 60s as expected and the HRRR with stronger shear ended up verifying better. With steeper lapse rates, heating being maximized, and the 12 deg C. 850mb dewpoints pooled ahead of the front, the storms were perkier with warnings being issued and large hail reported across parts of west central WI (Trempealeau, Jackson, Taylor, Clark, and Richland counties)
especially from 2030Z to 2330Z.
Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed a closed low over Ontario westward toward Alberta with troughing extending southward into the Plains and southwest U.S. Lightning was noted ahead of the cold front over the Great Lakes with another convective complex moving out of Colorado into the Plains. The MPX 19.00 sounding had dried out with 0.54" of precipitable water. The latest subjective surface analysis had the cold front over eastern WI with surface high pressure building in. Dewpoints were in the 30s and 40s with temperatures in the 50s. Skies were generally clear locally, however clouds were mushrooming over parts of Nebraska and Kansas with the convective complex there. By 09Z the complex had made it to GRI/HSI.
Through Monday Night:
Within the southwest flow aloft, we'll see a shortwave trough track across the Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by 03Z tonight. On its heals, a couple other shortwaves in the flow will continue lifting northeast across the same region overnight into Monday. A seasonably strong 105kt upper level jets across the northern U.S. with provide upper level support with a strengthening low level jet over the Plains working east overnight (35 to 45kts)
into Monday morning. Precipitable water values initially around 0.2" (50% of normal) today increase to 1.5 to 1.75" (150-200% of normal)by 09Z through 18Z Monday before decreasing.
Through the day today, forecast soundings/timesections show top down moistening with areas of shear increasing 40 to 60kts within a low CAPE environment. 850-700mb warm advection increases 21Z to 00Z and continues into Monday. Moisture transport vectors ramp up 03-06 and gradually shifting in a southern IA to Lake MI areas through the day Monday.
The latest CAMs show the convection over the western High Plains lifting northeast to the Missouri River Valley by 12Z, but differ on the coverage as it moves toward the local area, generally weakening as it lifts northeast into the drier air, but some showers working into the forecast area by mid afternoon and into west central WI by late afternoon or early evening. Instability remains limited farther north with some 250J/kg creeping into the south by 03Z increasing to 1250J/kg for parts of northeast IA by 06Z. As a result, mainly showers with thunder potential increasing with the increasing instability and low level jet. Isolated storms per the CAMs/HRRR show some potential for gusty winds and hail.
At this time, there is some risk due to the instability (MLCAPE 500-1000J/kg in northeast IA) and high shear during the overnight hours. The HRRR shows some low probabilities for 1" per hour rainfall rates (10-20%) Monday morning for parts of Taylor Co. and Grant Co. 13-14Z with the warm front lifting north. The EC/GFS/Canadian ensemble probabilities are 30-60% for 0.5" or more with the higher probabilities of 70% just north of the forecast area. The latest flash flood guidance for 6hr is 2-3". The HRRR Max 6hr shows the potential for localized 1.5-4" amounts possible both in NE IA and just to the northwest of the forecast area, so will want to monitor if storms repeat over the same area.
Severe weather/heavy rain potential Tuesday:
There continues to be decent model agreement that a stronger trough over the Plains Tuesday becomes negatively tilted and lifts northeast with deepening surface low pressure over the Upper Mississippi River Vally Tuesday. Moderate instability of 2500 to 3500 J/kg is progged (EFI-extreme forecast index-values with 60 to 80% higher than the climate max) with deep layer shear of 55kts+. The current Colorado State University machine learning probabilities/CIPS analogs show the ingredients for severe weather coming together across eastern a large area of the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. A large portion of our forecast area is included in an enhanced risk (3 of 5) for severe weather Tuesday. There remain difference in the frontal details along with timing and strength differences and the model precipitation forecasts vary greatly. The EC/GFS/Canadian ensemble probabilities are 50-70% for 0.5" or more with the higher probabilities of 90% just northwest of the forecast area.
We will continue to monitor the severe weather potential and the potential for heavy rain. Continue to stay tuned for forecast updates.
Not as warm today through Tuesday with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. More seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR conditions have prevailed this early morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies, with some higher level clouds beginning to move eastward towards the region. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through much of the day time today ahead of increasing shower and thunderstorm chances tonight.
Have introduced showers at both KLSE and KRST, but with lower confidence in exact timing and coverage of thunder potential have not included that with this issuance. Expect there will be updates to refine timing and thunder potential in the following issuances as confidence increases. Otherwise, southeast winds will be light through the day. Will note that some model guidance is hinting at the potential for MVFR ceilings late/beyond the forecast period (20-50%), so will continue to monitor trends through the day.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRST ROCHESTER INTL,MN | 10 sm | 37 min | E 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 39°F | 35% | 30.05 | |
| KTOB DODGE CENTER,MN | 18 sm | 16 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 30°F | 23% | 30.03 |
La Crosse, WI,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE