Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 7:46PM Monday March 18, 2019 12:39 PM EDT (16:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 955 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the late morning and early afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201903182115;;556817 FZUS53 KDTX 181355 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181007
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
607 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Aviation
Dry low level environment within light northwest flow will ensure
vfr conditions through the TAF period. Window of clear sky this
morning, before a sct bkn coverage of late day diurnal CU emerges as
lapse rates increase within this cooler march environment. This
cloud deck fades with loss of heating, but pattern remains favorable
for additional higher based cloud to lift into the area overnight.

For dtw... Late day diurnal stratocu will carry CIGS within the 5000
to 6000 ft level.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for ceiling AOB 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 320 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 320 am edt... Generally quiet conditions continue across
southeast michigan early this morning outside of a few isolated snow
showers that will continue to diminish over the next few hours. This
activity will have negligible impacts with just a dusting at best
expected.

Latest water vapor satellite imagery continues to indicate broad
longwave troughing over the eastern conus, with multiple, largely
disorganized pieces of embedded shortwave energy moving through the
longwave pattern currently across the great lakes. The exception
will be a remnant northern stream jet streak that will dive
southeast towards the region for this afternoon and evening, and
will provide just enough of a lifting mechanism coupled with daytime
heating to promote widely scattered rain snow showers roughly 4pm-
10pm. As with activity early this morning, these showers will
largely be inconsequential and may even resemble more in the way of
sprinkles as they fall out of a broken stratocu deck expected to
develop this afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer extending up to
5-6 kft coupled with march Sun will likely aid in slightly
overperforming temperatures today, with lower 40s possible across
most areas outside of the thumb.

Remnant isolated shower activity will hang on in the eastern thumb
through late evening, and transition over to snow showers as
temperatures fall back through the 30s. Loss of daytime heating will
offer the opportunity for skies to clear out around midnight, before
some high clouds associated with a piece of shearing vorticity
swings through towards daybreak Tuesday. Strengthening surface high
pressure over the ohio valley coupled with developing confluent
northwest flow aloft will result in increasingly stable conditions
for much of the night. Low temperatures will be limited to an extent
by a light southwesterly flow, settling in the 20s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
confluent northwest flow aloft persists through Tuesday with dry and
quiet conditions across the region. The surface high will slide east
towards the mid-atlantic region allowing for southwesterly return
flow to increase slightly (although still remaining light), and
despite another round of bubbling boundary layer stratocu during the
afternoon hours, high temperatures should be a few degrees warmer
than today and warm well into the 40s for most areas. Mid high
clouds will then be on the increase Tuesday night ahead of a surge
of northern stream PV racing south from hudson bay and limit low
temperatures closer to freezing.

As the ribbon of northern stream PV races south Tuesday night,
shearing energy exiting east from the central plains will interact
and help spawn a weak clipper-type low at the surface for the day
Wednesday that will track northeast of the region. An associated
frontal boundary will track southeast across lower michigan, and
enough moisture will be present to result in at least chance wording
for pops. Increasing pressure gradient ahead of the frontal boundary
will result in a breezy day Wednesday, with 20-30 mph gusts common.

These southwesterly winds will help temperatures push 50 resulting
in precipitation falling as rain. Depending on the timing of the
frontal passage, which currently looks to hold off until late
Wednesday night, lingering showers may transition to a mix of
rain snow with no accumulation. Low temperatures Wednesday night
will settle in the low to mid 30s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
the long term portion of the forecast will be characterized by
highly amplified flow across north america, with a quasi rex block
pattern setting up over the western CONUS heading into the weekend.

Southeast michigan will be on the eastern side of strong upper-level
ridging resulting in a extended period of dry weather beginning
Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The first day of spring
is Wednesday march 20th, and the weekend will shape up to be an
excellent start with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 50s.

Marine...

high pressure will remain over the region today and Tuesday. This
will maintain a stretch of quiet weather with light winds and
limited wave action in ice free areas. Southwest winds will
strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday as the pressure gradient
increases in advance of a cold front. Gusts to 25 knots during this
time. Winds shift to northwesterly and diminish with the frontal
passage Wednesday night. Moderate northwest winds will prevail
through Thursday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi49 min NNW 5.1 33°F 1027.5 hPa22°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi46 min N 8.9 G 11 30°F 34°F1026.7 hPa21°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi60 min S 2.9 G 7 37°F 1026.8 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi60 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 1027.4 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi40 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 29°F 1026.8 hPa (+1.4)
PSCM4 48 mi40 min 34°F 1027.1 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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SW9
G14
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G13
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G15
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G11
SW5
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G19
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W12
G16
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G15
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G18
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G17
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G15
W6
G12
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G10
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G9
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G9
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SW12
G19
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G17
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W8
G15
W6
G12
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G20
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G18
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G17
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G16
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G19
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G15
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G20
W10
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G19
NW14
G24
W10
G17
W13
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi49 minNNW 5 mi33°F21°F64%1027.5 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi48 minNW 710.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9W7W8
G17
SW10
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SW10
G14
6SW5SW4SW3SW4SW3W3W4W5CalmW3N6N5NW6NW6NW6NW6NW6NW5
1 day agoW9
G18
NW14NW11W11NW15
G22
NW8W14
G21
NW13--NW13
G21
W13W6W7W7W5NW10NW7SW3SW4SW4CalmSW5SW66
2 days agoW11
G21
W9
G17
W12
G17
6W7W7W7W13
G17
W14
G22
NW11
G20
W13
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W16
G25
W15
G26
W12W15
G21
W10
G17
W9W8
G18
W16
G26
W13
G20
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W14
G20
NW13
G20
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.