Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:22PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:47 PM EDT (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:44PMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 344 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201806210315;;843698 FZUS53 KDTX 201944 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-210315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202303
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
703 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Aviation
Weather associated with the front stalled near the ohio valley will
remain west and south of the terminal corridor tonight through
Thursday. That leaves SE michigan under benign aviation conditions
while monitoring for some shallow fog potential around sunrise
followed by a reinforcing cold front settling through the region
during the day Thursday. This front is entering the northern great
lakes this evening and is expected to make a dry passage through
lower michigan with only patches of borderlineVFR MVFR stratocu.

There will be an uptick in northeast wind speed into the 10-15 knot
range as high clouds thicken during mid to late afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 330 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
discussion...

shortwave exiting southeast michigan this afternoon, taking showers
with it. Upper level trough moving into new england tonight, with
confluent upper level northwest flow over central great lakes
region, allowing for corresponding good subsidence drying as large
surface high (1018 mb) settles over southern ontario quebec.

Moisture axis 850-700 mb theta-e, along the southern michigan border
dropping south with theta-e minimum and pw values down around three
quarters of an inch settling over southeast michigan overnight into
Thursday, allowing skies to clear. There is a modest concern for fog
development overnight, but probably enough low level drying to
prevent (note current dew pts in the 40s over northern lower
michigan), as mins dip predominately into the 50s (mav guidance
looks fine).

850 mb temps of 14 c tomorrow favor highs around 80 degrees (right
around normal), but increasing east-northeast flow having some
cooling influence, especially north of i-69. Stronger onshore flow,
gusting to to near 25 knots across inner saginaw, may lead to
another lakeshore flood advisory for bay county.

Upper level low circulation over the midwest tracking into the
western ohio valley on Friday, with good upper level divergence and
warm conveyor front expected to move into southeast michigan by
Friday evening, which looks to support widespread rainfall, as 850 mb
dew pts rise to between 13-15 c. Showalter index at or slightly
below zero will support slight low chance of the thunderstorms, with
marginal mid level lapse rates around 6 c km.

A surface low pressure and associated mid-level shortwave will
provide continued rain and thunderstorm chances across SE mi through
Saturday afternoon and evening before it departs to the northeast
into central new york. Additional rain and thunder chances will again
be possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a second shortwave
slides east from wisconsin into michigan and will act to deepen a
shortwave through across southeastern michigan. Rain chances will be
enhanced throughout the morning period due to left-exit dynamics from
an upper-level jet streak situated across the ohio valley.

Precipitation chances are then expected to diminish early Monday
morning into Wednesday morning as a broad high pressure system
travels from southern ontario into the carolinas. Subsidence from
high pressure will allow for plenty of sunshine as temperatures peak
in the upper 70s to lower 80s for a daytime high.

The next chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecasted for
Wednesday into Thursday as a mid-level trough and embedded shortwave
travels across the state. Enhanced southwesterly flow (850 mb
temperatures approaching 19c in the ecmwf) will allow surface
temperatures to return back into the low to mid 80s for a high early
next week.

Marine...

prevailing onshore easterly flow will remain in place through the
end of the week. Wave heights will be elevated at times through
Friday. A small craft advisory has been issued for increased wave
action in saginaw bay and the exposed nearshore waters of the thumb
for Thursday. Weak thunderstorm chances will exist on Saturday and
the wind direction will turn southerly ahead of an approaching low
pressure system.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi56 min Calm 67°F 1009.9 hPa54°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi47 min ESE 1 G 1 63°F 1010.3 hPa (-1.3)54°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 30 mi57 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 58°F1010.6 hPa (-1.7)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi127 min S 1 G 2.9 71°F 1011.5 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi89 min ENE 6 G 7 68°F 1011.2 hPa
45163 37 mi47 min E 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 68°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi47 min E 6 G 7 71°F 1010.2 hPa (-1.0)
PSCM4 48 mi47 min Calm G 0 61°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi56 minN 0 mi67°F54°F63%1009.9 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair68°F50°F54%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N43CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S3E3E4NE3NE3N3NE4NE5NE4CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago35N8NE7CalmCalmN4N553E6E10E9E11E8E5NE5NE5NE8NE8N6NE6N6Calm
2 days agoSW83SW54SW4SW7SW7W5SW8SW8SW5W5W10
G21
W8W8W10
G14
W8W7W11
G21
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G19
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G18
435

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.