Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:28PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 335 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with scattered light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with numerous light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201809251515;;173451 FZUS53 KDTX 250735 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-251515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251000
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
600 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Aviation
Extensive canopy of low stratus will remain prevalent throughout
much of the daylight period. Existing ifr lifr restrictions likely
to persist into the midday period, as any degree of low level drying
remains limited and daytime heating only slowly mixes into this moist
layer. Some improvement with time anticipated during the afternoon
and evening periods, but with continued uncertainty on the degree and
pace that low cloud can mix out. Forecast maintains a conservative
take on cig trends today. Pockets of showers today will contribute to
some visibility restrictions at times, but a 10-12kt southerly
gradient should minimize the possibility for dense fog. The degree of
airmass recovery will ultimately dictate thunderstorm potential this
period. Upstream radar trends over northern indiana suggest some
potential late morning and early afternoon for elevated convection to
lift into the SE michigan airspace. However, also plausible that this
activity wanes upon entry, so will hold off inclusion until a more
definitive signal become apparent. Greatest window for tsra centered
early tonight 23z-06z in advance of a cold front.

For dtw... Extensive low stratus holds firm through much of the
daylight period, with only gradual improvement in CIGS with time.

Pockets of light rain drizzle will also contribute to some
disruption in visibility at times. Thunderstorm potential through
tonight carries a significant degree of uncertainty. Greatest
potential centered 01z-06z tonight, but some elevated tsra could lift
through the airspace at any point throughout the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling AOB 5000 ft today.

* low for ceiling 200 ft this morning.

* very low for thunderstorms through 06z tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 310 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
discussion...

robust upper level trough axis 500 mb height fall center tracking
out the central plains today, and moving through the central great
lakes on Wednesday.

Low clouds came in fast and aggressive yesterday, and favor the
clouds holding strong through the day, as low clouds are evident up
and down the mississippi river valley. Thus, MAX temps are expected
to hold in the mid upper 70s. Moist isentropic ascent during the
day, coupled with low instability will likely be sufficient to
sustain scattered-numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. The
trends tonight favor a slower passage of the cold front after
midnight. Despite this, 00z NAM still advertising sbcapes in excess
of 1000 j kg as surface dew pts of 68 to 70 degrees look to advect
in. Strong dynamics wind fields tonight (0-6 km bulk shear of 50+
knots 40 knots at both 700 850 mb) will continue to support chance
of severe storms wind potential (60 mph). Still will have to be
leary of increasing 0-1 km bulk shear during the evening, ramping up
above 30 knots by midnight, and tornadic development can not be
ruled out, as SPC has much of southeast michigan in 2 percent risk,
with a 5 percent risk south of ann arbor-detroit. Mid level lapse
rates look to be weak, 6 c km or less from 700-500 mb, and may prove
to be the saving grace to keep activity muted or certainly limited
in coverage, as suggested by various hires solutions. None-the-less,
a slight chance of severe storms remains valid for late today
through much of tonight.

Aggressive drying subsidence taking place between 9-12z Wednesday, as pw
values crash to just under 0.5 inches. 850 mb temps lowering to 3 to
5 c supports holding maxes in the 60s.

Ridge of high pressure sliding through southeast michigan Wednesday
night, providing favorable radiating night, and looking at lows in
40s, with upper 30s possible if winds decouple, most likely near
ohio border, where there is also fog potential.

Very dry airmass 850-700 mb theta-e minimum hangs around most of
Thursday before narrow moisture axis with next cold front arrives
late in the day. Large scale upper level trough encompassing northern
conus late in the work week, settings us of for a seasonably cool
weekend, as 850 mb temps drop at or below zero (per 00z euro).

Surface high pressure (1030 mb) over the weekend has trended stronger
for the weekend, which favors dry weather before next low pressure
comes out of the plains, with good over running set up for Monday.

Although the good mid level fgen showers could end up being displaced
north over northern lower michigan.

Marine...

a moderate early day southeasterly wind will gradually ease while
turning southerly through the day. Small craft conditions continue
this morning before the decreasing wind speed prompts a
corresponding reduction in wave action this afternoon. A cold front
will track through the region tonight. A mild and moist pre-frontal
environment will bring the chance for thunderstorms during the
evening hours. Winds then turn northwesterly and strengthen with the
frontal passage Wednesday morning. Strongest winds noted across
northern sections of lake huron, where a brief period of gusts to
near gales will be possible. Northwest winds diminish late Wednesday
and Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the region. Winds
become southwesterly and strengthen again Thursday in advance of the
next cold front.

Hydrology...

scattered-numerous showers continue this morning within a very moist
environment. The chance for additional showers, along with isolated
thunderstorms, will exist this afternoon into tonight. Rainfall
totals will average around one quarter of an inch, although any
thunderstorm activity could bring very localized higher amounts. A
cold front will then sweep through the region overnight, bringing
drier conditions for the late week period. No flooding is expected
through the upcoming week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi66 min 2.9 67°F 1012.9 hPa66°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi45 min 64°F 64°F1013.9 hPa64°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 30 mi67 min S 16 G 18 64°F 62°F5 ft1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi77 min S 5.1 G 11 66°F 1013.9 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi67 min SSE 12 G 16 66°F 1013.5 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi57 min S 11 G 12 66°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.4)
PSCM4 48 mi57 min S 5.1 G 8 67°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi66 minVar 3 mi67°F66°F97%1012.9 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi60 minSSE 57.00 miOvercast67°F65°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE16
G24
SE17SE17SE16SE12S11
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G27
SE12SE14
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SE8S6S8S7S3S63
1 day agoSW5CalmNE4NE6E6E5E7E8NE10NE10E14NE20E20E19E17E15E15E16SE15SE14SE16SE19SE17SE19
2 days agoN12
G18
--N7CalmNE4N5NE5NE8NE4E4S4S44S34S4SW4SW3SW3SW6SW6SW7SW7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.