Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 1:44 AM   Moonset 10:20 AM

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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 403 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Today - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning, then veering to the southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 300954 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 554 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and slightly cooler today.

- Well above normal temperatures remain through the week.

- Likely a dry frontal passage on Wednesday with the next chance of precipitation arriving early Friday morning.

AVIATION

IFR ceilings scatter out by 12Z for the Metro Detroit terminals, coinciding with the conclusion of lingering shower activity in the wake of a departing cold front. Column winds trend westerly today which further contributes to the erosion of clouds offering VFR conditions across the terminals by midday. Prevailing westerly surface flow increases above 10 knots midday, but gusts are expected to remain below 20 knots this afternoon. Diurnal cumulus response struggles to exceed scattered coverage with periods of high cirrus cloud. Winds flip southeasterly tonight into Wednesday with weak Ohio Valley high pressure influence that precedes a western Great Lakes low pressure system toward the end of the TAF period.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceiling below 5000 feet through 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

DISCUSSION...

The cold front moving through Michigan early this morning will usher in a drier airmass with the 1.25 inch PWAT from the 00Z DTX RAOB yesterday dropping to around a half inch by this afternoon. This will bring a gradual decrease in cloud cover from west to east throughout the morning. Cold advection will not be that strong with 850 mb temperatures only falling a few degrees at 850 mb to 3-6 C by 18Z.
The lack of colder air and the clearing skies should allow the improving insolation to achieve daytime highs into mid/upper 60s to low 70s. Lower level westerly flow tops out around 25 knots in the post frontal environment with afternoon mixing yielding a west wind of 10 to 15 mph. Shortwave ridge will quickly pass over the region this evening and tonight with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows dip into the 40s for most of the CWA outside of the Detroit metro areas.

A shortwave at the nose of the upper jet will be driven out of the central Plains and through the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday while dragging a weak cold front through Michigan. Warm advection ahead of the front for the afternoon will lead to an increase in daytime high temperatures returning to the mid/upper 70s. Frontal passage timing will be during the day, but overall lack of moisture leans toward a mostly dry frontal passage. The main result will be an increase in clouds. The better precipitation chances will be tied closer to the low off to the north. Lower level dewpoints do increase into the mid 50s, so wouldn't be surprised if an isolated shower or two is able to develop along the front. Confidence is too low to have mention of PoPs at this time.

Ridging begins building over the Great Lakes Wednesday night with a warm and dry airmass residing across Michigan through much of Thursday. Well above normal temperatures will persist into the late week period with daytime highs in the 70s common. Another mid level circulation is set to pivot across the northern plains and through the upper Midwest on Friday. Strong lower level jet will help drive better moisture into the region ahead of larger scale ascent associated with the cold front. Timing the onset of precipitation leans toward late Thursday night/Friday morning as models have trended a little faster with the frontal passage. This would likely prevent much instability for being able to develop before arrival of precipitation and limiting a more robust convective response. Lowered PoPs in the Friday night time frame given this quicker frontal passage trend. Limited cold air advection behind this front keeps warm temperatures in the forecast to start the weekend.

MARINE...

With lighter winds early this morning and still some elevated surface dew pts > than water temps, areas of fog will likely be around Lake Huron through the morning hours as wind gusts reside mainly below 20 knots throughout the day.

Another low pressure system looks to be tracking through Minnesota and then into Lake Superior on Wednesday, with the cold front swinging through the Central Great Lakes. Moisture looks lagging, and the front appears to be weakening in the process. Thus, showers and moderate winds will be hard to come by, with another surface ridge then arriving Thursday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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