Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 7:09 AM EST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 318 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then backing to the southwest early in the afternoon increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201812181615;;967858 FZUS53 KDTX 180818 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 318 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-181615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181043
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
543 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Aviation
Ongoing subsidence and an increasingly divergent low level wind
field associated with sfc high pressure building into lower mi is
resulting in some break up of the stratus. This will continue to a
degree through the morning. As the sfc high exits east of the area
in the 15 to 18z time frame, developing south-southwest flow will
advect any remaining stratus off to the northeast of the terminals.

This will then leave clear skies and light south winds through the
remainder of the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings below 5000 ft this morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 319 am est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion...

water vapor imagery over the continent reveals relatively little
change since yesterday. Active subtropical jet streaming across the
baja peninsula is substantially aiding the process of a new upper
low cutting off near the mexican border while a strong east pacific
jet funnels into the pacific northwest. In fact, some lead jet
energy is already noted feeding into this developing southern stream
low, a sign of things to come over the next 48 hours as the bulk of
upstream jet energy reaches the CONUS and further amplifies the
pattern. Locally, flow remains in in a quasi-split flow state which
will ensure a progressive pattern through mid-week as ridging
rapidly works through the great lakes.

As of this morning, deep layer subsidence and surface high pressure
is supporting clear skies over the western great lakes and southwest
half of the lower peninsula while stratus remains locked beneath
the inversion roughly along and northeast of a saginaw-pontiac-
detroit. These clouds will easily hold firm for the remainder of the
night before eroding from SW to NE as anticyclonic flow deepens and
the progressive pattern simply shunts the moisture plume off to the
east through the morning. Warm advection working downward through
the column will be highly ineffective at warming temperatures today.

In fact, the thermal trough at 925mb will be several degrees colder
at 12z this morning than 24 hours ago even though warm advection at
850mb already commenced a few hours ago. Given the expectation for
similar stratus coverage as yesterday to begin today, the general
expectation is for temperatures to fall short of yesterday's highs
over the mostly sunny zones mainly west of i-75 and at least match
in the thumb where clouds will clear by this afternoon.

Return flow around departing high pressure will commence tonight,
helping maintain elevated lows in the mid and upper 20s, especially
in the saginaw valley. With warm advection in full swing,
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be mild, at least low to
mid 40s, under gradually increasing mid and high clouds.

Friday is still the day of interest, if there is one, in the
forecast period as the next 48 hours will feature the aforementioned
pacific jet energy capitalizing on the already-deepening pv
reservoir over southwest texas. Extremely amplified trough, the
southern periphery of which will penetrate well into central
america, will support a significant cyclone that will translate
northeastward over the eastern third of the us late Thursday through
Friday. Initially cut off from warm air due to the system origins in
the stj, any locations impacted by the deformation zone are almost
certain to see mostly rain before ending as snow as cold air
gradually infiltrates. Although a high degree of uncertainty will
accompany this system due to the low-latitude positioning of the
energy, it would take a substantial modeling error of the mid-
latitude westerlies before snow became a concern. At this time, hard
to envision anything more than an inch or so Friday evening.

Marine...

winds and waves will continue to diminish this morning into early
afternoon as high pressure traverses lower michigan and lake huron.

This high will drift east of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. The result will be an increasing southwest gradient. Low
level warm air advection within the southwest winds will limit the
over-lake stability, thus keeping wind gusts at or below 25 knots. A
slow moving frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday,
resulting in a weakening gradient across the great lakes. This will
support a decrease in the winds and waves during the course of the
day Thursday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi78 min NNW 8 G 15 31°F 1024 hPa23°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi39 min NW 6 G 8.9 30°F 33°F1023.2 hPa22°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi29 min NW 4.1 G 8 26°F 1023.7 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 33 mi29 min WNW 8 G 8.9 27°F 1024.4 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi69 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 27°F 1023.4 hPa (+0.7)
PSCM4 48 mi69 min Calm G 0 29°F 1023.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW10
G16
NW15
G22
NW13
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G18
NW14
G17
NW13
G19
NW12
G17
NW9
G13
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G16
NW8
G12
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G15
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G17
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G16
NW12
G15
NW7
G14
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NW6
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1 day
ago
E6
SE3
SE9
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S9
G12
S4
G7
SW4
G9
W5
G8
W8
G11
W8
G11
SW5
SW6
G10
W10
G13
SW7
G13
SW9
G13
W14
G17
W11
G18
W13
G20
W12
G17
W10
G14
W7
G11
W10
G14
W8
G11
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G14
2 days
ago
W1
NW4
SW1
N5
SE8
S5
SE3
SE2
N2
NE6
NE6
NE7
NE8
NE6
NE7
NE7
NE6
E8
E6
E7
NE6
NE8
NE7
NE9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi18 minNW 9 mi31°F23°F72%1023.8 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi13 minW 410.00 miOvercast28°F21°F76%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
G25
NW16
G23
NW16
G24
NW15
G24
NW15
G25
NW14
G20
NW12NW13NW11
G19
NW11NW13
G20
NW14
G20
NW11
G19
NW12
G20
NW13NW15
G21
NW14
G21
NW12
G21
NW10
G19
NW9
G17
NW11
G16
NW8NW8
G15
NW9
1 day agoSE6SE7S6CalmSW6W6SW5SW7W73SW86
G16
SW9
G18
SW11
G18
SW11
G21
W9
G20
W10
G18
W11
G18
W9W8W7NW16
G25
NW12NW15
2 days agoCalmNE6NE8NE9E7E7SE5SE9NE3E5NE8E7E5E3E3E5E5E3E5E5E8E9E7E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.