Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Austin, MI

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Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:21PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 2:03 PM EDT (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 1001 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Scattered light showers in the evening, then isolated light showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ441 Expires:201906192100;;732740 FZUS53 KDTX 191401 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ441-192100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Austin, MI
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location: 44.06, -82.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191734
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
134 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Aviation
A frontal boundary draped over the airspace will begin to slowly
drift southeast heading into the evening hours. The boundary, along
with an instability higher theta-e moisture axis pushing into lower
michigan during peak heating, will provide the focus for scattered
convection through roughly 22z-23z. The best potential for thunder
will continue to exist at kfnt and kptk between 18z-22z along the
nose of the higher ribbon of theta-e air. Thunder will be possible
at the southern TAF sites, but confidence not yet high enough to
include a tempo group at this time but will continue to monitor for
amendments. Relative lull in precipitation then settles in roughly
00z-04z as forcing reorients along approaching low pressure system
that will parallel the ohio indiana turnpike. Better instability
further south results in widespread rain overspreading the TAF sites
after 04z and continuing through the remainder of the period.

Outside of brief ifr in around heavier showers thunderstorms,VFR
prevails through late evening before steady deterioration eventually
into ifr lifr ceilings and occasional ifr visibility for the latter
half of the period. Light southerly flow reorients and strengthens
to around 10 knots out of the northeast as pressure gradient
tightens on northern flank of low pressure heading into tonight.

For dtw... Thunderstorm occurrence confidence continues to remain
low, although if to occur timing would be focused 20z-23z. Current
timing of ifr flying conditions starting around 10z, although could
occur earlier if heavier rain sets in sooner. Northeast runway ops
become increasingly likely after 04z in increasing northeast flow.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling 5 kft through 00z. High remainder of the period.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High in timing
20z-23z.

* low in ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less after 10z
Thursday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1141 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
update...

focus for this afternoon is centered on shower and thunderstorm
activity that will develop over portions of lower michigan. Questions
remain on most favored area for activity, but based on 12z dtx raob
and lack of sky cover, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
morning early afternoon over all of southeast michigan due to
diabatic daytime heating. The key dynamical support for thunderstorm
development appears to be a well defined 925-850mb frontogenesis axis
that will that develop remain fairly stationary along a line from
battle creek to owosso to lapeer. Some attempt will be made by this
fgen axis to sag southeastward into livingston oakland washtenaw
counties between 21-00z, before the influence of ohio valley low
pressure system pushes the low level fgen back north. Uncertainty
exists with how much activity can fire over the southern metro
detroit today as rap based soundings show a good subsidence based
capping layer persisting at 9000 ft agl. This capping layer does
match up to where it would be expected based on anticyclonic flow
trajectories of the ridging. Poor low to midlevel lapse rates will
significantly compromise instability, mlcapes today of around 500
j kg. No severe weather is expected this afternoon and tonight,
although water loading from a cell collapse may contribute to an
isolated wind gust of up to 40 mph. Main item to watch for will be
potential heavy rainfall with cell movement that is nearly stationary
or west to east at less than 20 mph. Most likely corridor for
showers and thunderstorms during this early period will be along near
the I 69 to m 49 corridors.

Prev discussion...

issued at 316 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion...

upper level energy shortwave trough tracking through lake superior
today, with light southwest flow over lower michigan ahead of a cold
front transporting decent amount of moisture 850 mb theta-e axis
during the prime heating of the day into southeast michigan. However,
with 500 mb temps of -10 to -11 c, mlcapes only look to be
increasing to between 250-500 j kg (regional gem gfs) with mid level
lapse rates (700-500 mb) under 6 c km. NAM appears to be too
aggressive with instability, as raw surface dew pts rising to around
70 degrees does not look realistic. Even so, a high scattered-low
numerous coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms looks likely
with the weak low level convergence with the front possible weak
surface reflection tracking through. Slow movement will present a
heavy rain threat with pw values up to 1.5 inches. This moisture axis
looks to hold right into Thursday morning, and looks like a strong
jet MAX pv disturbance will track out of the southern plains and
reach the southern michigan border late tonight. So, despite the loss
of surface based instability overnight, with 850-700 mb
low circulation reaching along and just across the southern michigan
border, showers should spread into most of southeast michigan
overnight into tomorrow morning. With the rather slow movement and
strong mid level fgen forcing progged, heavy rain will be a concern
as there is a chance the enhanced forcing sets up across detroit
metro area (per nam), leading to some urban and small stream type
flooding. However, the local SREF weighted probabilistic guidance
suggests the chance for accumulated rainfall of 1 inch or greater is
only near 40 percent, and will pass on a flood watch.

Upper level ridge moving over the western great lakes on Friday will
keep southeast michigan dry with the northwest confluent flow and
surface ridge in place. 850 mb temps around 10 c supporting highs in
the 70s.

The forecast for the weekend remains complicated, and now there are
indications we may be trending dry. Active warm front of the
midwest will gradually lift north, leading to increasing chance of
shower possible thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday
morning. However, there is a growing consensus (00z euro icon) the
mcs which develops will track mostly south of the cwa, and upper
level ridging then builds over the central great lakes Saturday
afternoon. Height falls coming out of the rockies and spreading into
the central plains Saturday evening should allow for another
thunderstorm complex to develop over the midwest Saturday night, but
this complex could also track just south of the state. Throw in the
00z canadian solution, which is offering up an even more compelling
case for a dry weekend, as the massive upper level low over eastern
canada exerts a greater influence. Confidence is not high, and
lowered the likely pops generated by nbm Saturday afternoon evening
into chance category. Keeping with the drier lean in the forecast,
there is a pretty good chance maxes end up warmer than the outgoing
forecast for Saturday Sunday.

Marine...

a weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles
slowly southward during the day with little marine consequence other
than scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
lake st clair and western lake erie from mid afternoon into early
evening. The pressure field remains weak resulting in light
southwest wind shifting north outside of any storms as the front
moves south of lake erie by evening. A low pressure system moves
along the front across indiana and ohio and brings greater coverage
of showers tonight through Thursday along with a moderate NE wind.

Higher stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is
expected to limit wind gusts to around 20 knots and hold waves just
below advisory threshold. Saginaw bay is the possible exception
where the water temperature is considerably warmer. The low pressure
system exits eastward Thursday night and allows weak high pressure
to build across the region from northern ontario. This brings a
break in rainfall and lighter wind over marine areas while the next
low pressure system organizes over the plains and moves eastward
during the weekend.

Hydrology...

a weak front moving slowly through the area brings scattered showers
to the area today. Showers become more numerous this afternoon south
of i-69 as daytime heating produces instability. Limited duration of
any heavier showers or thunderstorms holds average rainfall totals
to a quarter inch or less from noon to midnight tonight.

After a short break during the evening, a low pressure system moves
from west to east across indiana and ohio along the front stalled
south of the border. This system has potential for locally heavy
rainfall up to about the i-96 696 corridor and most likely from
about 3 am tonight to 3 pm Thursday. Rainfall totals average three
quarter inch in this area with pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible
depending on location of repeated downpours or thunderstorms. This
may lead to short-duration flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas and subsequent rises in area rivers and streams given the
rainy conditions of recent days.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for miz048.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Irl
update... ... .Cb
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 7 mi72 min Calm 57°F 1008.9 hPa52°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi45 min NNE 8 G 9.9 56°F 58°F1009.7 hPa53°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 30 mi33 min N 5.8 G 7.8 46°F 44°F1009.6 hPa46°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 32 mi23 min ENE 7 G 9.9 56°F 1009.5 hPa
45163 37 mi43 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 63°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 46 mi63 min NE 9.9 G 11 62°F 1009.1 hPa (+0.3)
PSCM4 48 mi63 min S 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 1026.8 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI7 mi72 minN 0 mi57°F52°F83%1008.9 hPa
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi68 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F61°F71%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E9E11SE10SE6E10S4SE6S5563CalmCalmE7S4SE3E3CalmCalm4Calm4
1 day agoN5NE4E4NE4NE4E4E4SE5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E6E5E5E4E6
2 days agoNE11NE12NE12NE10NE10NE83CalmN5CalmN43N63E4NE4E3CalmE3E3NE3N33N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.