Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday March 24, 2019 4:48 AM EDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 8:51AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 403 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201903241500;;834686 FZUS53 KDTX 240804 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-241500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240507
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
107 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Near term (tonight)
issued at 105 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
high impact weather: maybe a bit of light mixed precipitation today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, a narrow corridor of increased lower level
moisture associated with a cold front, was dropping south into srn
ontario and lake superior. Some spotty light snow flurries were seen
on regional observations, but very near term rapid update fcst
soundings suggest a chance at some light freezing drizzle drizzle as
well, with moisture just tickling the -10c isotherm for ice
activation. There was also a weak and stacked low pressure system in
the heart of the country, which was sending some increased high
level moisture into NRN michigan. Finally, much drier air and clear
skies were seen filtering down through ontario, ahead of strong high
pressure in central canada.

This cold front will drop south through NRN michigan today, with
dpva and frontal convergence within the corridor of increased
moisture, bringing a relatively short period of time for the chance
of seeing light mixed precipitation for all of the region. The fcst
low level moisture and thermal profiles look similar, with the top
of the moist layer still flirting with the -10c isotherm. The best
chance (slight still) for seeing any freezing drizzle will be across
eastern upper and straits this morning. The main precip types should
be drizzle and light snow flurries the much drier air to our north
will result in clearing skies later today and through tonight.

Highs today will have quite the range, with near freezing readings
in eastern upper where the front passes through first, to the mid
and upper 40s in the srn CWA where it takes much longer for the
front to clear. Lows tonight will fall efficiently, with weakening
winds and clear skies. Readings will bottom out in the 10f to 15f
range for most of NRN michigan, with around 20f in many of the
coastal locales.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 105 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: surface high pressure will gradually
become situated squarely overhead Monday night through early Tuesday
before slowly sliding east into Tuesday night. Broad upper-level
ridging will be evident upstream by early Tuesday, which is progged
to gradually shift eastward through Wednesday before breaking down
as several pieces of mid-level energy trek through the plains
midwest great lakes Thursday through the end of the week... Renewing
precipitation chances locally.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: moderating temperatures
through the week.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern
michigan Monday through Tuesday as expansive surface high pressure
encompasses the region. Aforementioned mid-level ridging will aid in
boosting temperatures Tuesday... Some 10 degrees or so over Monday.

Monday's highs ranging from the low-mid 30s across most of the
area... Perhaps some upper 30s near saginaw bay. Everyone should
safely be in the upper 30s to low 40s for Tuesday afternoon's highs.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 105 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

High pressure continues to drift off to the east Tuesday night
allowing southerly return flow to ramp up during the day Wednesday.

This will only aid in amplifying the warming trend through Thursday,
which looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming week (highs in the
50s over northern lower, upper 40s over eastern upper). Moisture
will also be on the increase through midweek ahead of a developing
system over the plains. By late week a front will stretch from the
upper great lakes southwestward into the plains, with a couple areas
of low pressure trekking through the region. Thursday will be just
rain given the milder temperatures, but colder air will return later
Friday behind the front, potentially bringing a changeover to a
bit of snow Friday night into early Saturday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 105 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
a cold front will drop south through the region today, bringing a
chance at some light mixed precipitation, and allowing southwest
winds to turn northerly. A period of MVFR CIGS is expected along and
behind the front, until the northerly winds bring much drier air
into the region tonight, ahead of higher pressure which moves into
the northern great lakes.

Marine
Issued at 105 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
a cold front will drop south through the region today, bringing a
chance at some light mixed precipitation, and allowing gusty low end
advisory southwest winds to turn northerly. These northerly winds
are expected to also gust to low end advisory speeds for portions of
the lake michigan nearshore waters through this evening. A much
drier air mass will be brought in later today and tonight via these
northerly winds. The dry air will remain overhead through Tuesday,
as high pressure settles into the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for lmz344>346.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for lmz341-342.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi68 min SSW 17 G 19 34°F 1021 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi68 min WSW 8.9 G 14 34°F 1019.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi48 min SW 13 G 15 34°F 1020 hPa (-1.0)
KP58 46 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 18 37°F 1019.3 hPa23°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N17
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NW8
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N10
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N24
G31
N28
G35
N26
G34
N20
G29
NW9
G27
N11
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NW11
G22
N8
G18
N4
NW20
G26
N17
G24
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N8
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SE9
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NW1
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N11
N7
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N6
G9
N8
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E3
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G11
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W6
G10
NW4
G7
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G9
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W8
G11
W10
G13
W12
G16
W11
G14
W8
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi53 minSW 810.00 miFair31°F23°F74%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW3CalmCalmNW3NW4W5W7SW9W9W12W9W11
G16
SW11
G15
SW11SW6SW6S6SW6SW5SW8SW7SW9SW8
1 day agoNW11
G15
NW14
G18
N9
G16
N11
G16
N15
G21
N12
G19
N15
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G28
N18
G24
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G25
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G22
NW9
G18
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G16
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G17
NW9N8
G14
NW9NW5NW4NW5
2 days agoNE3NW3N4N4NW5N4N3CalmE5SE4SE5S5W9W9W10SW5SW5W7W6W9W6W6W5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.