Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 1:01 AM   Moonset 9:11 AM

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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 925 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 300210 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers and areas of fog overnight

- Some light shower chances Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

- Sneaky fire weather concerns Wednesday?

- More widespread rain Thursday/Friday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Occluded low center is making its way into Lake Superior late this evening...with the associated cold front just on our doorstep. Final area of showers continues to develop along and just ahead of this cold front...and is now moving into western sections of our CWA Have modified POPs to account for the projected track of this line of showers...impacting mainly the NW half of our CWA over the next few hours. Showers will eventually come to an end overnight...leaving low stratus and areas of fog into Tuesday morning. Do not expect any thunder with these showers due to a lack of instability. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s in Eastern Upper Michigan to near 50 around Saginaw Bay.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current radar depicts heavy rain and storms embedded in stratiform rain over the NE lower Lake Huron coast. These storms will continue east over the waters, brining gusty winds, lightening, and heavy rain to western Lake Huron.
Clouds and light rain will linger through the evening, especially for NW lower, the tip of the mitt, and eastern upper as the triple point of the surface low moves over the tip of the mitt. Winds will turn westerly as rain finally clears out later tonight (closer to midnight). Chances for fog tonight exist near the lake shores, with the best chances over the Lake Huron Coast and near the tip of the mitt. Easter upper will keep cloud cover most of the night. Any fog that forms, or lingering clouds will clear out Tuesday afternoon. Fair weather CU should try and form in the afternoon hours with all the moisture that is left over from today, and winds will be westerly and slightly breezy in the afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: As precipitation moves out tonight, the parent upper level trough will lag slightly behind, with the axis rotating through NW lower and the UP early Tuesday morning. This leads to a little uncertainty with fog formation, as its not the idea radiational set up and drier air will move in with the west/southwest winds. CAMs linger low clouds and some fog over NW lower through mid night, then keep things mixed enough to raise surface visibilities through the morning hours as the upper level trough passes over. NE lower might be far enough away from the forcing to get a better shot at fog that will linger through tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Forecast: Series of short wave troughs lined up across the Pacific...lead trough in this series moving into British Columbia/Pacific northwest will settle across the northern Rockies by midweek. Weak short wave energy will cross the upper Lakes Wednesday with more substantial height falls into the Four Corners region Thursday...this in turn will bump heights up across the Great Lakes. Rockies trough then expected to eject northeast and impact the region with at least a couple of short wave troughs in the Friday/Saturday time frame.

Lead short wave trough Wednesday will push a weakening cold front across Michigan during the day...while another lee side low will develop over eastern Colorado/western Kansas and track into the upper Midwest Thursday. Associated warm front expected to lift north across Wisconsin/Lower Michigan later Thursday/Thursday night and followed by a cold front in the Friday time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Some light shower chances Tuesday night/Wednesday morning: Lead short wave trough forecast to come out of the eastern Dakotas Tuesday night and propagate northeast across Lake Superior Wednesday. This will be accompanied by a weakening cold front that should initially have a narrow band of rain along/ahead of it across the upper Midwest Tuesday evening. But with better forcing lifting northeast not sure there is going to be much precipitation with this band as it approaches Lower Michigan Wednesday morning. Right now best precipitation probabilities should be across eastern Upper (along with some shallow instability Wednesday afternoon) and the tip of the mitt counties.

Sneaky fire weather concerns Wednesday?: Thanks to recent rainfall fuel moisture should not be an immediate issue (though it never takes long to dry things out in the northern Michigan sandbox)...but some concern for relative humidity values dropping below 30 percent across interior northern Lower Wednesday afternoon. What appears to be a weak pressure gradient suggests a good lake breeze day and not a lot of wind concerns but there is some momentum in what should be a fairly deep CBL to get mixed down during the day so it may be surprisingly gusty (15-25+mph gusts).

More widespread rain Thursday/Friday: Developing warm front that will be lifting north into the upper Lakes Thursday will have a decent surge of moisture coming up over the warm frontal zone (precipitable water values 1.00- 1.25+"). That should get things started although anticipating an east-west gradient in precipitation probabilities. Surface low that will move from the central Plains and into Minnesota/Wisconsin by Thursday night expected to eventually lift into northwest Ontario Friday and push a cold front across Lower Michigan during the day. This should be accompanied by a frontal rain band that sweeps across northern Michigan during the day. Rain may come to an end by late in the day for areas west of I- 75. Rainfall amounts in excess of 0.50" don't seem unreasonable by the time rain comes to an end Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Occluded low will lift thru Upper Michigan and Lake Superior tonight...and then thru Ontario Monday into Monday night.
Residual scattered rain showers will come to an end tonight...
leaving some low clouds and areas of fog into Tuesday. IFR conditions will hang on across Eastern Upper and far Northern/NE Lower Michigan tonight as low stratus and areas of fog remain.
Mainly low VFR conditions are expected around TVC and mbL tonight into Tuesday morning. Conditions will steadily improve Tuesday afternoon and evening as a narrow ridge axis builds into Michigan. E/NE surface winds AOB 10 kts will become westerly on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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