Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:07PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:21 PM EST (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:19AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 1010 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy early in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201711202200;;699993 FZUS53 KDTX 201510 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1010 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-202200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201433
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
933 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Update
Issued at 932 am est Mon nov 20 2017
today will be the best day of the week, by far. Area of low
clouds over northern lower mi in region of high moisture and
isentropic upslope near LLJ this morning. This area will decrease
in moisture and lift weaken as LLJ moves east later this morning.

Otherwise descent subsidence today before next shortwave arrives
tonight, with high clouds increasing throughout the day. Winds
increase this afternoon ahead of next system, especially over lake
michigan. Temperatures at or just above normals for this time of
year.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 255 am est Mon nov 20 2017
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
lake effect snows across NRN chippewa county were just scraping nrn
chippewa county early this morning, as winds have backed to almost a
due west direction. They will come to a complete end over the next
few hours, as winds continue to back to out of the sw, and warm
advection gradually kills all but some shallow overlake instability.

There was a batch of flurries that was developing over NW lower
michigan, seemingly associated with a weak increase in dpva and llj
in the waa. Further upstream, a more defined shortwave trough and
associated low pressure was pushing through saskatchewan, and was
working with minimal moisture, and was producing little to no
synoptic precipitation.

Heading through this morning, the lake effect will push north out of
chippewa county, while a period of stratus may develop over lake
michigan, with shallow moisture flux increasing due to strengthening
winds and that shallow overlake instability. Also, the batch of
flurries is expected to end as they track ne, after the passage of
weak vorticity and the dpva. The saskatchewan shortwave will be
pushing ese and eventually into the western great lakes by late
tonight, while the associated low pressure crosses into ontario and
it's cold front laying out across NRN michigan. Skies will just be
increasing in higher level cloud today and into this evening,
particularly in the NRN cwa, and then over all of NRN michigan by
late tonight. Again, this wave will be working with minimal
moisture, and not much moisture advection out ahead of it. Doubt
there will be any precipitation, despite much stronger dpva and
frontal forcing.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 250 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Another shot of cold air and lake effect snow return Tuesday...

high impact weather potential: accumulating snow possible Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday, primarily in the typical lake
belts of northwest lower and eastern upper.

Pattern forecast: weak ridge axis aloft is expected to cross the
western great lakes on Monday along with high pressure centered over
the tennessee valley nosing into the region from the south. However,
changes are in store for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as a well-
defined shortwave and attendant developing surface low pressure trek
from british columbia to near the arrowhead of minnesota by Monday
afternoon and into ontario Monday night-early Tuesday. This will
ultimately drag a cold front across northern michigan Tuesday
morning with another shot of cold air renewing lake effect snow
chances Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: minimal shower threat
along ahead of Tuesday morning's cold front before quickly
transitioning to lake effect snow chances amounts Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning.

Potent cold front tied to low pressure over central ontario is
expected to be making its way southeastward across the forecast area
come Tuesday morning, which could be accompanied by an isolated a.M.

Shower or two, but by and large, most of the area is expected to
remain precip-free. The same can't be said for the afternoon as
another shot of cold canadian air will quickly spill back into the
region. Pre-frontal h8 temps near 0 c are expected to quickly fall
to -8 to -11 c by mid-afternoon. Thus, over-lake instability (delta
ts pushing 20 c) combined with several weak perturbations within the
parent trough are expected to become sufficient for northwest flow
lake processes to ramp up. Tightening pressure gradient on the
backside of aforementioned low pressure will also result in gusty
winds at times... Pushing 20 mph inland 25 mph in coastal areas.

No glaring reason for snow shower activity to diminish Tuesday
night; however, by early Wednesday morning, the loss of any
lingering synoptic support moisture coinciding with weak mid level
warm air advection and heights gradually rising aloft should begin
to transition any lingering light snow to more westerly oriented les
zones before diminishing across the bulk of northern mi by midday.

In terms of potential snow accumulation between Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night, northwest flow favored locales of eastern
upper and northwest lower stand the best chance to see 1-3 inches of
fresh powder... Particularly across northern chippewa and sections of
charlevoix, antrim, otsego and kalkaska counties. Lesser amounts
elsewhere, and amounts will certainly become more refined over the
next 24 hours. As was alluded to by the prior shift, the combo of
freshly falling snow and occasionally gusty winds may result in
slick travel for some and as of right now, a low chance of another
round of headlines.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 am est Mon nov 20 2017
high impact weather potential: light snow showers possible Thursday
with more rain snow chances this weekend.

Next threat for precip arrives thanksgiving day in the form of light
snow showers tied to a cold front expected to swing across northern
michigan. At this point, it doesn't look to pack too much impact,
but worth monitoring with busy holiday travel underway.

Warm air advection ramps up across the region late Thursday night-
Friday ahead of the next system expected to bring rain snow to the
area Friday night into Saturday. All signals point toward yet
another shot of much cooler air arriving into northern michigan for
the second half of the upcoming weekend with potentially another
round of accumulating snow.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 634 am est Mon nov 20 2017
vfr. Llws Monday night.

Mid and high clouds were crossing the region early this morning,
along and ahead of a developing warm front in the western great
lakes. While conditions will prevail atVFR, there is some
opportunity for a period of MVFR CIGS at tvc pln apn at times
today due to shallow overlake shallow instability and increasing
winds shifting from W to sw. A cold front arrives late in the taf
period and will shift gusty winds more west then NW into Tuesday
with lake effect kicking in again.

The SW winds today will increase considerably just off the
surface for tonight, leading to llws at pln tvc mbl.

Marine
Issued at 250 am est Mon nov 20 2017
a brief weakening in wind speeds is occurring attm, with some rogue
advisory level winds still out there on the nearshore waters. Winds
quickly ramp back up again through today and tonight, out ahead of
low pressure tracking into ontario. Winds will remain strong through
Tuesday behind the passage of a cold front, weakening but remaining
gusty into Tuesday night as a weaker pressure gradient starts moving
in. Gale force winds will develop tonight into Tuesday morning on
lake michigan, and possibly other areas, but advisory level winds
are at least a lock. Lake effect rain and snow develops behind the
cold front, turning to all snow late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 11 am est Tuesday for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Kf
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi42 min SSW 16 G 22 36°F 1012.2 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi42 min SSW 8.9 G 16 39°F 1011.5 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi82 min SW 17 G 22 36°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.7)
KP58 46 mi31 min SW 7 40°F 1012.3 hPa30°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW11
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G14
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W13
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NW12
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W9
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W13
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N4
N11
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G24
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N20
G25
N21
G28
N24
G31
N26
G33
N25
G31
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G31
NW18
G28
NW17
G28
NW16
G22
NW13
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G23
NW12
G16
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G23
NW10
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G17
NW12
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NW14
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NW12
G16
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SE20
G25
S12
G16
S14
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G17
S15
G21
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G21
S14
G19
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G25
S19
G24
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S8
G11
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G10
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G9
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SW6
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G8
SW5
G8
W2
N5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi28 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F30°F71%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW9NW11
G27
NW10
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W15
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W11W10W8
G15
W9SW7SW8SW4SW8SW6SW6SW5SW4SW5S3SW6SW8SW9
1 day agoN5N7NW11
G14
N6N6N6N10N13N10
G16
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NW8
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W7NW10
G14
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NW9NW11
G15
2 days agoS8S10
G14
S7S10
G14
S9
G14
S8S13
G19
S12
G17
S10
G16
S11S12SW4CalmS9S8S9S7SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmNW4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.