Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday August 17, 2017 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 956 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning...then numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning...then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers until late afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201708172100;;522595 FZUS53 KDTX 171357 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-172100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171441
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1041 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Update
Issued at 1041 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
might be a busy afternoon evening. Deep well pronounced stacked
low pressure system clearly evident on satellite water vapor
imagery along the minnesota wisconsin border this morning... With
an occluded warm front cutting through wisconsin down into
southern lower michigan. Initial round of warm advection forced
precip (along the 850 mb front) continues to swing up through the
northern eastern parts of the cwa. Secondary round of showers storms
is now pushing into the region... Possibly along the gradient of
the incoming llj. A narrow axis of somewhat modest "skinny"
instability extends along and just north of the warm front up
into western upper michigan with MUCAPE values either side of 1000
j kg... Falling off quickly heading north east across the cwa.

Rest of today... Stacked low will advance into the central upper
michigan this afternoon then cross eastern upper michigan tonight.

This will drag the occluding warm front into across northern
lower michigan and put at least parts of the CWA into the pinching
off warm sector for the afternoon. Ongoing round of showers storms
will continue to move through the region over the next several
hours... And there will likely be some additional development of
showers storms this afternoon as we finally get some modest
heating.

As far as severe weather goes... Instability through the afternoon
will be somewhat modulated by a very moist atmosphere anemic
lapse rates and a very slow start to the diurnal heating cycle.

But that could be overcome to some degree by respectable
dynamics kinematics with this system. If we can muster around 1000
j kg mlcape... Given the increasing winds aloft (aoa 40 knots at
500 mb) and resulting effective bulk shear... Along with backed low
level flow in the vicinity of the warm front... We will likely see
some rotating storms and some degree of a severe weather
threat... And that will likely be across our southern SE counties
(as outlined in SPC day one outlook) where better instability will
be. Will see how it goes...

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 339 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms today into
this evening. Marginal risk of severe storms along and south of a
line from manistee to gaylord to alpena with a slightly greater risk
along and south of m-55 from houghton lake to east tawas. Main
threats are for damaging winds. A tornado is not out of the
question. Locally heavy rainfall.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, a vigorous shortwave and associated sfc low
pressure was over SRN mn, with a warm front extending ese through
far SRN lake michigan and NRN indy. A band of showers, as well as a
pockets of thunderstorms in central SRN lake michigan, were lifting
ne as the SRN mn low pressure system does the same. The bl moisture
was very moist per upstream soundings, and the LLJ waa coupled with
dpva and upper divergence were the forcing mechanisms at play. Lapse
rates aloft leave much to be desired, not even hitting 6c km.

Temperatures have remained warm overnight due to extensive clouds
sweeping in over the region, and strengthening southerly flow just
above the sfc. Readings were still in the 60s and low 70s.

The low pressure system will drive into the central upper peninsula
this afternoon, while dragging a warm front into NRN lower michigan.

The band of showers and pockets of thunderstorms will lift into the
region through this morning, as height falls increase and steepen
the mid level lapse rates to a little over 6c km, and while forcing
from the aforementioned mechanisms strengthen. The activity may fall
off to some degree behind this initial band of precipitation during
the late morning and early afternoon, but renewed showers and storms
are expected to fire along and ahead of the system cold front that
crosses the region through the evening hours. It is during the later
hours of the afternoon and early evening that the potential exists
for severe storms. This will significantly depend on whether or not
we can get some sort of sunshine and heating to develop enough
instability. If the middle 70s can be reached, we can generate up to
1200 j kg of mlcape, as dew points will be in the middle and upper
60s. Lower 70s dew points are not out of the question nearer saginaw
bay. Bulk shear values will be 35-45 knots for potentially well
organized storms supercells while the NRN fringe of the stronger mid
level jet core arrives (strongest winds in SRN lower michigan). Low
lcl heights of around 2200ft and potential back of the low level
flow and sfc-3km helicities at a very respectable 250 m2 s2 for the
potential for a tornado. Greatest threat for severe weather will be
between 4pm and 9pm, again for primarily along and south of m-55
from houghton lake to east tawas, to a lesser extent, north of there
to manistee to gaylord and over to alpena. Locally heavy rainfall is
certainly possible with the thunderstorms as pwats will be very high
at around 1.85".

A break in the action is expected behind this cold front, before
deeper low level moisture sweeps into the region later in the night
for the potential for scattered light rains and or drizzle. Lows
remaining mild tonight, in the lower to middle 60s.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 339 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
Friday... Low pressure will track from near the soo to start the
period into east central ontario by evening. There could be a few
wrap around lingering showers in the morning. In addition... Shallow
over lake instability (925 lake delta TS between 6 and 7) will
likely help the cause off of lakes superior and michigan under a
northwest flow producing scattered lake effect showers.

Meanwhile... Low levels remain socked in with clouds for pretty much
the whole day. Cooler with highs only in the middle 60s to lower
70s.

Friday night... Perhaps a few evening lake driven showers in
northwest flow favored areas but lake instabilty then wanes
leaving mostly cloudy skies... Except for partial clearing across
southwest zones late. Lows in the middle and upper 50s.

Saturday... A moisture starved short wave moves through the flow
(mainly to our south) bringing perhaps a few sprinkles... Otherwise
partly sunny skies are expected. Warmer with highs in the middle to
upper 70s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 339 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
rising heights through Sunday then a northern stream short wave
knocks down heights while carving out a trough for the remainder of
the period. Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday will gradually cool
back off Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Threat for showers and
possible thunderstorms Monday afternoon (hope the eclipse doesn't
get blocked) and am routing for the slower ECMWF for that reason.

There is a better chance for showers and storms Monday night into
Tuesday. Could even be a few lake effect driven showers Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 652 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
low pressure will track from wisconsin through eastern lake
superior over the TAF period, resulting in periods of showers and
scattered thunderstorms for today into this evening while CIGS are
expected to dip into MVFR. A cold front will cross all of nrn
michigan from mid evening to shortly after midnight, with a lull
in showery activity. Then, deeper low level moisture will swing
back into the area overnight with scattered light rain and
drizzle with solid MVFR potential ifr cigs. Winds will also be
periodically gusty as they swing from SE to more westerly by late
in the TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 339 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
strong low pressure will cross through eastern lake superior
tonight and into western quebec by Saturday morning. Strengthening
winds out of the SE will swing more SW later this afternoon and
tonight behind a cold front, then more NW Friday into Friday
night. The pressure gradient will be tight enough for period of
advisory level winds over this time. Have expanded the advisories
to include all nearshore waters through today and several more
into Friday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected today into
tonight, with the stronger storms expected over the lake huron
waters. There is potential for severe storms. More scattered light
rain and drizzle expected for Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz008-015-017-
018-024-030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz346-348-
349.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345-347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz341.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45163 6 mi44 min SSE 16 G 21 69°F 71°F3 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi44 min SE 23 G 27 69°F 1010.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi44 min SSE 8.9 G 17 69°F 1010.5 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi84 min SSE 21 G 24 69°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.7)
KP58 46 mi33 min SSE 8.9 68°F 1009.9 hPa65°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi30 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain69°F65°F89%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7SE6SE6E9E7E6SE5SE5S5S5S6SE6S6S4S5S5S6S6S6W4SE4SE5S8
1 day agoN6S5S4E6SE5E6S4S4S4NW4CalmCalmNW3W4W10W7N4NW3NW3S4E6SE5E5S5
2 days agoCalmS3S8SE8SE6SE6S6SE7NW4S5S4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW6CalmCalmNW7
G18
W3NW5NW7NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.