Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:09PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:10 AM EDT (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:05AMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 953 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers until early morning...then mostly cloudy early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201705292115;;398278 FZUS53 KDTX 291353 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 953 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ421-292115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 291428
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1028 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Update
Issued at 1027 am edt Mon may 29 2017
fog north of the bridge has lifted into a low stratus deck that
should slowly erode late this morning. A cluster of showers that
developed over lake michigan is moving through northern lower late
this morning as a lobe of 500mb vorticity and the left exit
region of an upper jet streak pivot through the area. Expect this
activity will gradually fill in some more over the next couple
hours as it interacts with increasing diurnal instability over
northern michigan. 12z apx sounding shows a convective temperature
of 70f (several locations over northern lower already in the mid
60s) with decent low level lapse rates in place. However, mid
level lapse rates are weaker than yesterday due to a slight warm
bulge above 700mb. Factor in lower dewpoints pwats than yesterday
as well, and we're looking at a smaller chance of showers and
thunderstorms with less areal coverage. A stronger cell could
produce some sub-severe gusty winds, but overall not expecting
intense storms this afternoon evening. Also expecting breezy
synoptic-scale winds to develop midday with gusts up to 25 mph
fairly common... Perhaps a few up to 30 mph south of m-72.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 327 am edt Mon may 29 2017
high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms. Severe
storms not expected, but gusty thunderstorm outflow certainly
possible.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a fairly stacked low pressure system was centered over western lake
superior early this morning, with several vorticity maxima rotating
through portions of central canada, the upper mississippi valley,
and the western great lakes. Scattered showers continue underneath
and around the low and it's cold core, helped along through the
night by the individual vorticity centers. Most of the convection
was largely diurnal in nature however, as much of the activity has
waned into the night. A similar scenario in NRN michigan, with the
last of the showers dying off a couple of hours ago. Skies have
cleared out, and radiational cooling has helped along the
development of pockets of fog and stratus, the fog dense in spots.

Things are expected to be rather quiet this morning, with good
morning sunshine eating away at the stratus amd fog, improving those
pockets of greatly lowered visibility. Clouds should start to
develop through the latter portion of the morning, with the arrival
of the next shortwave vorticity center. Plus, diurnal cumulus will
quickly develop as -21c air at h5 settles in over the area. Lapse
rates aloft will be decent at 6.5c km. Timing of any other
individual shortwaves vorticity maxima is always challenging, but
pure diurnal instability showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected, primarily in the afternoon, and maybe some decent coverage
into the evening (projected arrival of one of those vort centers).

No severe weather is expected with sfc-6km shear less than 25kts.

However, several hundred j kg MLCAPE found off modified soundings,
with interestingly, up to 500j kg of dcape as well. Any decent storm
will be able to bring about some very gusty downdrafts, as was seen
across sd mn yesterday afternoon. Maybe gusts up to 50mph or so, and
will highlight that in the hwoapx. While activity wanes through the
night to more isolated showers, there will likely be more
cloudiness, as the southern flank of the upper low is associated
with deeper moisture.

Fairly gusty gradient winds as well, with 25 mph being fairly common
across the region. Highs in the low to mid 50s eastern upper to the
lower 70s in downsloping areas of NE lower.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 327 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Cooler and unsettled...

high impact weather potential... None
pattern synopsis forecast... Tuesday starts out with little
precipitation, until the 500 mb low rotates another spoke of energy
and moisture over the upper great lakes. Coupled with the diurnal
heating, showers result. CAPE is less than 200 j kg, so will leave
out the thunder as it is unlikely. Rain showers diminish as we lose
the heat of the day during Tuesday evening. Showers make a come back
on Wednesday, but the main 500 mb trough moves through the forecast
area, and heights begin to build, so things dry out for a time.

There is a shortwave trough that moves into E upper late overnight
on Wednesday night. It arrives late, and it's still over lake
superior on the gfs. So will go with the slight chance that the
blends give.

Primary forecast concerns... Not a lot to be concerned with at this
point. Wednesday may turn out drier as the dewpoints could be lower
than progged. Models are beginning to catch onto lower dewpoints,
and thus lower min rh on Wednesday. SREF plumes give a low chance
for thunder with a few members producing MUCAPE of over 500 j kg,
but nothing severe.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 327 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Below normal temperature trend...

high impact weather potential... Thunder chances Friday, Saturday,
Sunday afternoon, otherwise none.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)... Thursday, a shortwave moves
through E upper briefly, but it look rather weak, so not expecting
much in the way of rain with it. Friday, Saturday and Sunday are the
most unsettled portion of the forecast period. A stronger shortwave
at 500 mb rotates into the low causing another cutoff which moves
east to the near new england by Sunday morning. The deterministic
models show dry for the day on Saturday, but the 00z GEFS shows mean
qpf everyday with some groupings of members to around a couple of
tenths. So will have chances of rain showers through the end of the
weekend. Think that there could be a drier period and that the
models are a little too wet, but with this being days 5-7, will
leave the chance rain showers. It is interesting to note that Sunday
on the GEFS has the highest potential for thunder, but the ecmwf
deterministic model is drier than dry so will let the chance pops
ride for now.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 620 am edt Mon may 29 2017
a clear start to the day for all but pln, when dense shallow fog
continues to bring poor visibility. This fog ought to wear off
pretty quickly however. Cold air aloft and additional shortwave
energy will rotate into northern michigan today and this evening.

This will re-develop a sct-bkn cumulus deck at 5-6k and result in
scattered showers tstms. Conditions will generally beVFR, with
MVFR around showers storms.

Winds will become gusty from the southwest, with gusts of 20kt to
25kt during the afternoon. Winds subside some this evening while
showery activity to become increasingly isolated.

Marine
Issued at 327 am edt Mon may 29 2017
low pressure in ontario will slowly drift into hudson bay through
Tuesday, with several disturbances passing through the western great
lakes bringing showery weather with scattered storms, mainly in the
afternoon and evenings. At the same time, a tighter pressure
gradient will slide in today and into Tuesday, bringing some low end
advisory level wind gusts to portions of lake michigan and huron.

The storms themselves could produce stronger more erratic wind
gusts.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mek
near term... Smd
short term... Jsl
long term... Jsl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45163 6 mi31 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 60°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi31 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1007.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi31 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 67°F 1006.8 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi71 min SW 8.9 G 13 62°F 1006.4 hPa (+0.3)
KP58 46 mi20 min 71°F 1006.2 hPa56°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi78 minW 1110.00 miFair68°F50°F53%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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SE7SE8SE6SE4E3NE9NE7NW3NE4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW4W4SW7SW6SW8W12W11
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1 day agoSE3SE9SE5SE5SE7SE6SE7SE6SE9SE5SE3E4S7SW4W5W6CalmS6CalmW6W7S4S13
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2 days agoW13NW7E4E4E6E4E5E4S10SE3S8CalmCalmW6CalmCalmCalmW5NW3S5CalmS6CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.