Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:29PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:26 AM EDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 924 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Monday through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon. A chance of light showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201809240900;;111576 FZUS53 KDTX 240132 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 924 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240355
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1155 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Update
Issued at 933 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
cold front was evident as a radar fine line earlier in the
evening, but has drifted south and been swallowed up by radar
bloom. The front is also becoming less evident in surface obs, as
broader easterly flow is established around high pressure near the
tip of james bay. Post-frontal low clouds, with a lake
contribution, cover areas NE of a line from osc to petoskey,
including eastern upper mi. Some gradual expansion of this cloud
deck will continue for the next several hours, limited by
downsloping into NW lower. However, very late tonight, sub-850mb
winds will veer se-erly. This will bring in relatively dry air,
and erode the low clouds somewhat from the south (especially ne
lower mi, south of apn).

Min temps were lowered in eastern upper mi, but do not expect a
significant fall from current readings.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 350 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Cloud cover issues...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: weakening high pressure and wedge of dry
air remains across lower michigan, with clear to partly cloudy skies
still dominant south of m-32. To the north, cold front and narrow
corridor of cloud cover across the u.P. Continues to sag through
the straits northern lake huron and into the tip of the mitt. Apx
radar fine line sagging through the tip of the mitt depicts the
front and or marine boundary or both. Winds at pellston, cheboygan
and rogers city have increased and turned easterly along with a
lower cloud deck getting into those areas off the lake. Earlier
showers across the eup have finally come to and end.

Primary forecast concerns: cloud trends tonight.

Front still expected to stall across the far northern part of the
cwa, before eventually pivoting back into canada as a warm front
later tonight as low level flow increases from the se. But main
forecast problem centers around cloud cover trends as guidance
continues to suggest a fair amount of stratus continuing to expand
across a portion of N NE lower michigan tonight, aided by
increasing easterly flow and very modest shallow instability over
northern lake huron. Guidance might be a bit overly agressive, but
i have trended the forecast a bit more cloudy tonight for the
n NE part of the cwa.

Temperatures tonight... Warmer, given additional cloud cover and
increasing low level flow.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 350 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
high impact weather potential: small craft advisory winds will
remain through Tuesday morning. Possibility of strong thunderstorms
Tuesday, though better chances currently remain to our south.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by Monday morning, high pressure will be
to our east, with flow turning more southerly through the day as low
pressure lifts towards hudson bay. This will advect in a warmer,
more humid airmass for the beginning of the week. Arrival of the
cold front attendant to the low lifting towards hudson bay has
slowed a bit with the latest runs, looking now to be later Tuesday
night. After a warm start to the week, temperatures will drop
sharply behind the cold front, returning to near normal values
across the cwa.

Primary forecast concerns: the potential for any stronger storms
Tuesday remains the primary concern over the short term. It looks
like the better potential will remain to our south, and the latest
day 3 outlook from SPC agrees with this, as a marginal risk just
barely clips into gladwin and arenac counties. It seems likely that
in the southerly flow, convective development to our south will
result in plenty of cloudiness overspreading northern lower and
limiting development of instability. The environment has continued to
be marginal as it is, with only low to moderate CAPE in some
guidance. So while the chances are low at this point, the magnitude
of shear in place (40-50kts) will warrant keeping a close eye on
things through the afternoon and as the front approaches. Better
instability isn't too far away, and if it does manage to spread
further north we could see a few stronger storms.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 350 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
after high pressure moving through the region Wednesday, and most of
Thursday, the pattern will again be quite active through the
weekend. Several disturbances will bring sporadic rain chances from
Thursday night through Sunday. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1155 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
MVFR CIGS at apn pln overnight. MVFR CIGS all sites Monday
evening.

Cold front has drifted south to near tvc-osc. Stratus trails just
behind the front, and has made considerable inroads into NE lower
mi. This will provide MVFR CIGS at pln apn, and conditions could
dip into ifr territory at times. Gradual improvement will kick
in at dawn, and all sites should beVFR by late morning. However,
MVFR CIGS will return to all TAF sites Monday evening.

Easterly winds will be a touch brisk at apn pln tonight. Winds
will veer SE at all sites Monday, and remain a tad breezy.

Marine
Issued at 350 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
low level easterly flow continues to increase and expected to veer
se tonight. This will lead to small craft advisory winds and or
waves for a good portion of the lakes at least through Monday
night. Weather remains overall quiet through Monday with rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 am edt Monday for miz017-018-024-
030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lmz341.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 8 am edt Tuesday for
lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lsz321.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi46 min ENE 18 G 20 59°F 1025.4 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi46 min E 15 G 21 58°F 1025.7 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi26 min E 18 G 20 59°F 1023.7 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 46 mi35 min E 15 60°F 1024.8 hPa55°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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SW12
G16
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi31 minE 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast57°F51°F82%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3E6SE7E6E7SE7E7E8E12
G18
E12
G17
E12
G15
E10E11
G14
1 day agoNW13
G22
NW7NW11NW7NW6W5NW6CalmNW5N7NE3SE3NE6E8E8SE6SE7S4SE4CalmSW3SW3CalmCalm
2 days agoW7SE3S5S8S10
G17
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G26
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G36
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NW17
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G21
NW15
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.