Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:05 AM EST (05:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then veering to the east early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201812121015;;658783 FZUS53 KDTX 120257 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-121015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 120443
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1143 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Update
Issued at 932 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
mslp pattern is broadly col-like, with low pressure to our east
and west, and high pressure north and south. The ridging is
briefly the dominant factor, with a tendency toward
anticyclonically-curved flow resulting in further erosion of low
clouds, even after sunset. Straits area eastern upper mi have the
most prominent holes in the overcast, though atlanta mio are also
seeing breaks. The incoming low, and high to the north, will
combine to produce a se-erly sub-850mb flow overnight. There are
plenty of clouds upstream on that trajectory, but it will take
much of the overnight to bring that up here. In addition, we don't
see cyclonically-curved low level flow until after sunrise, so
there will be continued tendency to manufacture some breaks. As a
further factor, high and eventually mid clouds will ride in from
the west overnight, ahead of the next system.

Temps aren't getting too out of hand just yet (though do need to
lower a smidge in eastern upper), because dew points are high.

What we are seeing as a result of the partial clearing is some
fog, with pln cheboygan both with vsbys less than 1 1 2sm at the
moment. This will be subject to the vagaries of the overhead cloud
cover; fog will dissipate as clouds return to any one location.

But a mention of patchy fog in some areas (especially north of
m-32) is a reasonable addition.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 321 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

A rather quiet night...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: weak low pressure sliding southeast
vicinity georgian bay this afternoon, with attendant primary cold
front cutting across southeast lower michigan, while a secondary,
partially lake enhanced, surface trough extends northwest from it
near the saint marys river. Mid level shortwave (responsible for
that surface low) is exiting stage right, with sharp shortwave
ridging following quickly on its heels into the western great lakes.

Large scale pattern remains a progressive one, allowing that
upstream mid level ridge to build quickly overhead tonight, all-the-
while next sharp shortwave trough digs into the upper mississippi
valley by morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: cloud and temperature trends.

Details: expect any lingering flurries patchy light freezing drizzle
to come to an end as moisture depth further decreases with time.

Bigger question heading through tonight is just how much clearing is
realized as moisture depth becomes exceedingly shallow and lake
moisture contribution decreases with light winds and a modifying
thermal environment. Always a tough call this time of year, but tend
to believe at least some breaks in the overcast will occur. Just how
cold temperatures become is highly predicated on just how much
clearing is realized. Current thinking is for lows to range from the
upper teens inland to lower and middle 20s closer to the big waters.

If skies do clear, would expect our typical ice box locations to
become quite a bit colder by sunrise Wednesday.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 321 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

A slow warming trend with continued chances of a light wintry
mix...

high impact weather potential: chances for freezing drizzle Tuesday
night and early Wednesday morning and again Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: timing and type of pcpn with
weak features moving through the great lakes.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The chances of light wintry mixed pcpn
will linger across northern michigan through the work week, as a
couple of weak clippers and shallow upper lvl troughs push quickly
across the northern great lakes. Precipitation type, chance and
intensity will all be limited across northern michigan through the
period, hindered by weak dynamics and continued lack of deep
moisture through the column. 850 500mb and 500 300mb vector
convergence shows the best forcing to be focused over the northern
great lakes through Wednesday afternoon, the result of a weak
feature moving across the southern great lakes and ohio valley.

Model soundings show abundant low lvl mstr (within temps between
-10c and 0c) trapped below the inversion through around 12z wed
before mid and upper lvl mstr increases in the aftn with clipper
pushing across the state. This vertical mstr and temp profile would
suggest freezing drizzle again Wed morning. However, increasing mstr
and ice crystal seeding for aloft develops in mid and upper lvls,
will chance morning drizzle to snow showers by Wed aftn. An area of
high pressure will briefly settle into the great lakes Thursday
behind the exiting clipper, with model soundings again showing
abundant low lvl mstr (temps of -10c to 0c) favoring drizzle and
freezing drizzle Wednesday night and Thursday.

The chance for snow increases again Thursday night and Friday as mid
and upper lvl mstr increases in advance of a weak 500mb trough
pushing across the upper midwest and great lakes.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 321 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
there will be several chances for light wintry mixed pcpn across the
northern great lakes through the weekend, as a series of weak
clippers and shallow upper troughing pass over the region. Expect
drier conditions Monday night through Tuesday as sfc and upper ridge
build over the state and upper midwest. Mid lvl temps in this
pattern through the weekend will linger around 0c to -2c before
warming to near 5c Monday night and Tuesday in developing upper
ridge.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1143 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
lifr fog pln overnight. MVFR toVFR cigs. Ifr vsbys in snow at
mbl Wed afternoon.

Low clouds will be prevalent in moist coolish air across the
region. There are some breaks in the clouds from the straits area
north. Pln has cleared out enough to fog in hard, and lifr
conditions will only slowly improve late in the overnight.

Elsewhere, CIGS will vary fromVFR to MVFR. Low pressure will move
into southern mn Wednesday, and associated snow will reach mbl in
the afternoon. Ifr vsbys expected there at times.

Light winds tonight, becoming SE and a bit brisk on Wednesday.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
light winds expected this evening, with wind slowly
increasing in speed out of the southeast later tonight into
Wednesday morning. Not a significant wind event, but will likely
experience at least some small craft advisory conditions across
portions of the nearshore waters. Southeast winds, at times gusty,
continue through Wednesday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 1 am est Thursday
for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for lmz323-
341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 1 am est Thursday
for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... mb
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Jz
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi25 min WNW 6 G 7 30°F 1018.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi25 min NW 4.1 G 8 30°F 1018.3 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi65 min WNW 8.9 G 12 31°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
KP58 46 mi14 min SW 5.1 31°F 1018.5 hPa26°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi10 minW 510.00 miOvercast30°F25°F85%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8SW6S7S5S6S5SW3SW4W8W7NW11
G16
W11W9W7NW8W8W4W5W5W5NW4CalmW7
1 day agoW5W5W5W4SW4W5W8W6W7SW6SW4S3SW8SW12SW8SW12S5S4S6S8S11SW11SW9
G14
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2 days agoS3SW4S6SW7SW7SW6SW8SW7SW6SW6SW7SW12W10W9W9NW6NW7NW7W5W3CalmNW5CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.