Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:22PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 955 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Becoming partly cloudy late in the afternoon. Showers in the late morning and early afternoon...then a slight chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201806242130;;039515 FZUS53 KDTX 241355 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-242130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241524
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1124 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Update
Issued at 1124 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
more widespread showers from earlier this morning have eroded
rather quickly with only isolated light showers remaining at this
hour. Cloud cover is also diminishing faster than originally
thought, and have updated the forecast to reflect these latest
trends. Will retain small chance of pops through late this morning
into the afternoon for eastern upper and northern lower south of
m-72, as increasing sunshine could lend itself to some weak diurnal
pop up activity. However, thinking a general drying trend should
win out as a drier airmass continues to slowly filter in from the
north, as per 12z apx sounding.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 231 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Scattered showers continue today... Then drying and clearing
tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface low center is positioned between
lake huron and lake erie early this morning... With a stationary
front located just north of our cwa. Scattered light showers
continue to fall across portions of our CWA along the NW periphery
of deeper moisture and cyclonic flow associated with the low center
to our se. Low clouds and areas of fog also persist across much of
our cwa... With temps holding mainly in the lower 60s.

Areal coverage and intensity of shower activity is expected to
increase very late tonight and into Sunday as a small wave over se
wisconsin lifts NE into our area and interacts with the cold front
to our north as it begins to drop south. This already appears to be
happening based on latest upward trends in radar returns across our
cwa. The main enhanced area of showers currently over the tip of the
mitt will slowly drop southward thru the morning hours... Focusing
highest pops mainly across the southern half of our cwa. Shower
activity will gradually diminish from north to south this afternoon
behind the cold front as high pressure and drier air begin to build
in from the north. Expect another day of slightly below normal
temps... With afternoon highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s.

Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column will continue to
build southward into michigan tonight... Resulting in clear skies and
cool temps. Overnight lows will cool mainly into the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 231 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Active weather pattern continues...

high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible as early as
Tuesday.

Pattern forecast: by the start of the period on Monday, northern
michigan is progged to be encompassed by upper level ridging and
attendant high surface high pressure sagging in from the north.

However, focus will revolve around a developing area of low pressure
across the central plains Monday morning, which is expected to
gradually trek east-northeastward toward the great lakes Tuesday
into Wednesday and bring a return to active weather locally.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing pops and thunder
chances Tuesday.

Lots of sunshine anticipated on Monday with little in the way of
sensible weather as high pressure returns across the area. High
temperatures ranging from the low 70s across eastern upper and
northeast lower to the upper 70s near 80 west of i-75 in easterly
wind downsloping locales.

Increasing thickening clouds will bet he rule Monday night into
early Tuesday across the bulk of northern michigan as aforementioned
low pressure gets set to slide across the region. Guidance is in
fairly decent agreement at this juncture with respect to spreading
shower activity back into the forecast area from west to east as
early as Tuesday morning through the midday hours. GFS gem continue
to hint at shower activity dissipating upon arrival due to inherent
dry air Tuesday morning; however, this concern will quickly be
overcome as pws are progged to rise to 1.25-1.50"+ Tuesday
afternoon. Limited overall instability through the day Tuesday
warrants nothing more than a slight chance of thunder... And will
likely hinge considerably on any early day peeks of sunshine. All in
all... New rain amounts during the daylight hours Tuesday under a
quarter of an inch (perhaps a few localized higher amounts across
the far southwest counties).

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 231 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
high impact weather potential: thunderstorms remain possible
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances pick up right where they left off
Tuesday night... Continuing through Wednesday. Deep layer moisture
will certainly be in place Tuesday night ahead of the system's cold
front, which is expected to sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast early Wednesday morning. Nearly all guidance suggests
upwards of 500 j kg of MLCAPE developing pre-fropa Tuesday night,
which certainly continues to warrant the mention of thunderstorms
right on through Wednesday morning. Limited deep-layer shear less
than 30 kts and unfavorable frontal timing preclude much in the way
of a severe threat at this juncture, but remains worth monitoring
over the next several days. Wrap around moisture behind the
departing system Wednesday afternoon will likely continue scattered
shower drizzle activity and low clouds before deep layer moisture
really begins to diminish Wednesday evening.

A brief break in the action is expected Wednesday night-Thursday
before the next system approaches from the west on Friday... Perhaps
bringing another round of showers and storms to northern michigan to
wrap up the week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
showers will continue to impact northern lower michigan thru this
morning... But will gradually diminish from north to south this
afternoon behind a cold front dropping thru the area. Remaining
ifr conditions will steadily improve to MVFR and eventuallyVFR as
this front moves thru. N NE winds AOB 10 kts today will become
light variable tonight as high pressure builds into the region in
the wake of the cold front.

Marine
Issued at 231 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure gradually builds southward out of canada into the
great lakes region. Scattered showers will continue this morning as
a cold front drops thru the region. Shower activity will then
gradually diminish this afternoon. Dry and cool conditions are
expected tonight as high pressure builds into the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mk
near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45163 6 mi38 min NE 14 G 16 62°F 68°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi58 min NNE 15 G 17 60°F 1013.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi58 min N 5.1 G 8.9 62°F 1013.5 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi38 min NE 11 G 13 63°F 1013.2 hPa (+2.4)
KP58 46 mi47 min NNE 11 57°F 1012.3 hPa57°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi43 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F61°F89%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE5NE5N3NE4NE5NE4NE4N4CalmCalmNE4CalmNE3N5N7N7N6N3N3NE6NE6NE7NE12
1 day agoNE8NE10NE11NE11NE9NE8NE8NE6NE6NE8NE5NE5E9E5E7E8E8E7E7E5E5E3NE5NE3
2 days agoNE11
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NE14N12NE11
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NE10NE10N6N5CalmCalmNW3CalmNE7NE3N5N4N4NE7E9E9NE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.