Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 1:01 AM   Moonset 9:11 AM

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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 945 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon - .
Rest of today - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 291410 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1010 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and isolated thunder today into tonight.

- Light rain showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially north.

- Rain showers, perhaps some rumbles of thunder, late week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Satellite and surface observations depict a surface warm front stalling over the southern part of the state this morning.
Webcams across northern lower and eastern upper show areas of dense fog. Surface visibilities will continue to improve as light to moderate rain moves in from the west. Radar already shows light rain over NW lower, moving into parts of eastern upper and the tip of the mitt. Rain should reach NE lower mid day. The 12Z sounding shows skinny low to mid level MU CAPE, which could support a lightning strike or two with isolated brief moderate to heavier rainfall embedding in the generally stratiform rain as the warm front starts to move northeast and cross norther lower later this afternoon. The best chances for embedded thunder will be over NE lower, which is closest to the warm front. Rain will move out this afternoon and winds will turn west.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to pivot east of the region today as a shortwave trough and associated jet max punch over the Great Lakes.
Surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest will also trek northeast across the far northern Great Lakes and into southern Ontario while weakening as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced today into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight -- Light isolated to scattered showers will continue across parts of northern Michigan early this morning. Ongoing rain and embedded thunder across Illinois/NW Indiana will spread northeast, working into southwest portions of the CWA around mid morning. This activity will slide across the area through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon with rainfall amounts expected to be around 0.5" for most. Localized areas could see closer to 0.75" through this afternoon. While not necessarily expected, isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible with this activity through the afternoon. Chances for rain showers will diminish through this evening and tonight. Otherwise, temperatures look to reach into the 60s for areas along and south of M-32 where a warm front looks to slide up to later today with cooler highs in the 40s and low 50s north of the boundary.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper and sfc low will drift off to the northeast into Ontario on Tuesday resulting in drier conditions. Short wave clips northern Michigan very late Tuesday into Wednesday with weak sfc boundary. A few generally light showers expected as a result. Next feature of note will begin to impact the Northwoods late week in the form of another Upper Midwest bound upper low/sfc low and its frontal features. Slightly cooler airmass will settle in this weekend in wake of this low pressure system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Dry conditions take hold on Tuesday as sfc low departs the region with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most areas. Energy lifts to the northwest of Michigan very late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a weak sfc boundary moving through. Consequently, a few light rain showers possible, especially the farther north and west you are in N MI but nothing of consequence. Clears out by the afternoon hours on Wednesday with progged forecast soundings showing modest afternoon boundary layer mixing resulting in breezy and drying conditions.
Blended in some drier guidance to achieve lower relative humidity in the forcast as a result.

Next feature of note will be another trough and low pressure system moving into the N Plains/Upper Midwest to the west of northern Michigan. Warm and moist advection begins to move into the region on Thursday, with the first batch of precipitation arriving. First batch of precip may favor western and northern areas more so given the latest guidance. Another shot for precip will come with the cold front on Friday. Some guidance does suggest weak CAPE values, but ensemble probs for >500j/kg of CAPE Thurs-Fri are generally non- existent (<10%). Thus, have a few rumbles of thunder in the forecast during this time but not much more than that. Temperatures will cool a little this upcoming weekend behind this system with a slight chance for a few rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
IFR CIGs currently in place across all northern Michigan TAF sites with firm LIFR CIGs across interior northern lower. LIFR CIGs may spread to TAF sites in the next few hours -- most likely at APN, PLN, and CIU with lesser chances at TVC and mbL. IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected across APN, PLN, and CIU through the majority of the issuance period, where TVC and mbL to MVFR or even VFR later this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain will also move in from the southwest around mid morning and last through mid to late afternoon before becoming more scattered/isolated with time tonight. East-southeast winds this morning will turn to south- southwest winds across much of northern lower Michigan as a warm front lifts across the area.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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