Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 1:09 AM   Moonset 9:18 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 307 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tonight - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Tue - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Tue night - S winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Scattered showers in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Scattered showers in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Wed night - S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Thu - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 307 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure builds in from the north this afternoon before a frontal boundary brings an increased chance for scattered showers Tuesday night into Wednesday winds will be primarily onshore with shifts to northerly Wednesday and Thursday night as systems pass over the waters. Conditions over the waters remain tranquil through the weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 290719 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 319 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly clear and dry today as high pressure builds into the region. A frontal system approaches from the west on Tuesday bringing showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ridging builds over the eastern US during the second half of the week, although disturbances moving over the ridge will bring chances for showers into the weekend. A gradual warming trend looks to start this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
Weak sfc cold front should be offshore by daybreak with main change behind this front being lower Tds, and wind shift, to the N. Seeing some signs of sfc wind going N-NW but generally light outside of the mtns, and may take until mixing shortly after sunrise to mix the winds and drier air down to the sfc, as is often the case. Also starting to see clearing across much of the CWA and this should continue through the morning. I think most places, even the mtns should see mostly sunny skies for a good chunk of the day, may see more clouds moving back into S NH later today as the front starts to shift back N in response to approaching trough from the W. Highs today range from around 60 in the mtns to the low 70s in S NH. After the surge of N winds this morning winds will actually diminish enough for a late sea breeze to develop which will keep the coast cooler.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
For tonight that 500 mb wave will crash into the ridging over the NE CONUS, and while clouds will overspread the area, this will mainly be mid to high clouds for much of the night, as the dry lower levels will hold much of the night. There’s a low chance that some coastal stratus develops, in a few spots, but this more likely later in the day Tuesday. Lows range from 35-40 in the mtns to the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

NE flow gradually shifts more E on Tuesday, and this will lower maxes by about 10 F from Monday. It’ll also be mainly cloudy through the day although the ridging holds pretty well and keeps most of the area dry. The only exception is the possibility for a few showers in the CT valley in the afternoon Tuesday, as that wave does tamp down the ridge a bit and coincides with some of the better mid level WAA. Highs range from the low to mid 50s in may spots across ME and the mtns to the low 60s in interior S NH and the CT vly.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overview: May is going to start out unsettled as the 500 mb pattern features multiple shortwaves and then an upper low closing off over the North Atlantic, which will continue to rotate shortwaves through the region. This would keep chances of showers in the forecast through much of the extended before ridging maybe builds back in for the weekend, but there is some uncertainty in just how amplified it would be.

Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected

Details: Low pressure crossing the area along with upper level divergence as we find ourselves in the right entrance region of a low level jet, will keep showers going through the overnight hours into Wednesday. With onshore flow low temperatures are likely to cool well into 40s across the area, with areas in the coastal plain even dipping into the 30s. Southwesterly upper level flow will drive PWATs toward the 90th percentile over the area, around 1", but current Euro and GFS ensembles, and surprisingly even the latest NAM only show amounts around 0.25".
This is likely owing to the progressiveness of the system and the fact that we will see drier air intruding later in the day.
However, this does look like a situation where some of these showers end up convective resulting in isolated downpours that put down a quick 0.5" or more, this is hinted at in the 00Z NAM nest. With continued onshore winds and mostly cloudy skies temperatures look to only warm into the 50s areawide with the coolest temperatures once again in the coastal plain. Clouds will begin to break up Wednesday night as upper level ridging looks to briefly build in turning upper level flow more northwesterly and getting drier air into the column. 850 mb temperatures remain warm so despite some clearing we likely end up with overnight lows similarly in the 40s.

Thursday looks to be mostly dry, but shower chances will quickly come back into play as ridging breaks down and a vorticity maxima crosses the area. With upper level flow still northwesterly, sensible weather may be limited to just increased clouds, but a few sprinkles can't be ruled out at this time.
This has resulted in guidance trending a bit cooler with low to mid 60s across most of the area, upper 50s along the coast, and upper 60s in southern New Hampshire. Friday will be nearly identical as models close off a 500 mb low in close proximity to the northeast, but again with limited moisture the result is likely just more clouds and cooler temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday may see us under a ridge axis once again, but not all models agree. The 00Z Euro has come in with a well amplified ridge, while the GFS and Canadian are not so excited and have a less amplified and shortwave ridden pattern. Time will tell, but for now will stick with the NBM this far out.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Any lingering fog and low cigs, mainly at KLEB, should clear by sunrise with VFR expected today into much of Tuesday. Coastal stratus may move in mid to late afternoon but should only affect coastal terminals before Tuesday evening.

Long Term...MVFR ceilings are expected with rain showers moving through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Ceilings should gradually lift becoming VFR by Wedensday afternoon. MVFR ceilings are possible once again on Thursday, mainly across the north, otherwise VFR prevails through Friday.

MARINE
Short Term...Despite a brief burst of increased N winds today, winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not expected through Friday. Winds will be primarily onshore with shifts to northerly Wednesday and Thursday night as systems pass over the waters.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fore River
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Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Back Cove
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Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     9.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.51 feet Low Tide
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