Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:46PM Sunday September 23, 2018 2:58 PM CDT (19:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:32PMMoonset 4:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 948 Am Cdt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Rest of today..SW wind around 5 kts backing se 5 to 10 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 15 to 20 kts in the late evening. Gusts to 25 kts possible overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
Monday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Partly cloudy.
Monday night..S wind 10 to 20 kts veering sw after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
LMZ543 Expires:201809232230;;088968 FZUS53 KGRB 231448 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 948 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-232230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc city, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 231950
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
250 pm cdt Sun sep 23 2018
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Monday
issued at 249 pm cdt Sun sep 23 2018
the latest rap analysis and satellite radar imagery show a cold
front stalling out over far northern wi and the upper peninsula
early this afternoon. This front has brought in some low stratus
over vilas county, and scattered to broken cumulus over northern
wi. Meanwhile, clear skies are prevailing across east-central wi
all the way to a low pressure system over eastern south dakota. As
the front over the u.P. Border returns northwards, forecast
concerns mainly revolve around clouds and temps in the short term.

Tonight... As an elongated low pressure system moves from eastern
sd to northern mn, the stalled cold front will return north across
the u.P. And lake superior. Some clouds above 15 kft will likely
push into northern wi ahead of the low, but most areas will
continue to see mostly clear conditions persist. The pressure
gradient will tighten across the region, and the resultant
increase of boundary layer winds should limit fog potential. Did
lower temps a tad in the cold spots. But otherwise, lows should
fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Monday... The low pressure system will continue to move north into
ontario while pushing a cold front across minnesota.

South southeast winds will increase ahead of the front, and
should push highs into the upper 60s to middle 70s. However, the
south winds will also start to draw in increasing amounts of gulf
moisture. This should result in more cloud cover and humid
conditions arriving for the afternoon. But precip chances should
remain south and also west of the region through early evening.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
issued at 249 pm cdt Sun sep 23 2018
a cold front will move through the area late Monday night into
Tuesday, bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. On
Monday night, pops will be highest in the northwest, near
the cold front. Models have trended east with a surge of tropical
moisture during the evening, so most of that rain should miss us.

On Tuesday, the main focus should be over the southeast half of
the forecast area, where the slow frontal passage will still be
occurring. Instability is progged to be fairly weak during most of
the event, except Tuesday afternoon in the fox valley lakeshore
region, when CAPE may reach 500-1000 j kg. With deep layer shear
of 45-55 knots and upper divergence with the rrq of a 120 knot jet
streak coincident with the instability axis, a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out.

The cold front should be east of the region by Tuesday night,
but the rrq will linger over eastern wi during the evening and
a strong upper level trough is forecast to move through the
region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Will need to
keep some small pops in eastern wi Tuesday evening, and across
far northern wi into Wednesday.

Another cold front is forecast to arrive late Wednesday night
into Thursday, along with the next chance of showers. Other than
mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 c km over northern wi Thursday
afternoon, models show little instability to work with. Will
only mention a slight chance of storms over north central and far
northeast wi Thursday afternoon, aided by the passage of a short-
wave trough.

High pressure may bring a brief dry period for the end of the
work week, but models strongly disagree on the arrival time of
precipitation for the weekend. The ECMWF model keeps dry weather
in place through Friday night, while the GFS has a much wetter
look through the entire weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal Monday night into Tuesday,
then below normal for the rest of the extended period.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1051 am cdt Sun sep 23 2018
generally good flying weather across central and northern wi
through the TAF period. Low clouds near the u.P. Border have made
little progress south. Otherwise, may have few to sct fair
weather clouds build by early this afternoon only to dissipate
around sunset. Mid and high clouds increase some tonight at the
same time as the surface pressure gradient tightens. These trends
should limit ground fog potential. Low level wind shear increases
late over north-central wi, but not quite enough to include in the
tafs at rhi.

Marine Increasing southeast winds and favorable fetches will
lead to building waves on lake michigan late tonight into Monday
morning. Waves are expected to peak along the lake michigan
shoreline in the 09-13z time period at 4 to 4.5 ft. A small craft
advisory has already been issued, and will issue a beach hazard
statement for the morning hours north of manitowoc.

Gusty southwest winds could also generate conditions that are
hazardous to small craft on Thursday and Thursday night.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement from 1 am cdt Monday through Monday
morning for wiz022-040.

Short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Kieckbusch
aviation... ... .Mpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi58 min SSE 8 G 8.9 62°F 1021.3 hPa (-1.6)53°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi40 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 64°F 1020.7 hPa
45014 49 mi28 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 67°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi62 minSSE 910.00 miFair66°F46°F49%1023.7 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi65 minSE 910.00 miFair67°F46°F47%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S12S12S11S8S7S6S6SW4SW6SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS3E7SE6SE9
1 day agoW15
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N14NW9NW5W5NW5CalmNW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmSE8SE11
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2 days agoE9SE9--SE5E5E5S3S13
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G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.