Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday January 19, 2019 8:47 PM CST (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201901200515;;614832 Fzus53 Kgrb 192132 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 332 Pm Cst Sat Jan 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz542-543-200515- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 332 Pm Cst Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through Sunday morning...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. A slight chance of snow showers.
Sunday..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. A slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Sunday night..N wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Monday...ne wind 5 to 10 kts veering se 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. A chance of light snow. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc city, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 200001
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
601 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Sunday
issued at 300 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
a band of heavy lake-effect snow was making its way out of
manitowoc county this afternoon. Lake-effect clouds and some snow
showers moved into north-central wisconsin during the day.

Expect generally quiet weather conditions tonight and Sunday as
surface high pressure and a weak mid level ridge move into the
region. There is a chance for snow showers in far north-central
wisconsin, mainly during the evening. Below normal low
temperatures are expected tonight. Winds should be strong enough
to keep temperatures from going into free-fall, but will also
cause wind chills to reach advisory criteria in north-central
wisconsin overnight.

Below normal temperatures will persist on Sunday be there should
be plenty of sunshine across most of the area.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 300 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
high pressure across the great lakes will clear out skies across
much of the area Sunday night, allowing for temperatures to fall
well below zero across central and north-central wisconsin, with
lows around zero across east-central wisconsin and the lakeshore.

Temperatures across north-central wisconsin will approach -20 with
light winds. Given the light winds wind chill headlines are not
anticipated at this time for Sunday night.

The main exception to the cloud free night will be near the
lakeshore Sunday night where lake effect snow will continue across
these counties through Monday with a northerly wind direction.

There could even be pre-conditioning from lake superior during
this time period. The winds seem to favor more diffuse bands
rather than one organized band, therefore snowfall totals should
be fairly light during this period.

Attention then turns to a fairly significant system slated to
impact the western great lakes region Monday night through Tuesday
night as a low pressure system emerges from the central plains
Monday night, then heads northeast through northern illinois
Tuesday night. The models are in better agreement this run as the
ecmwf has come more in line with the GFS and canadian model in
bringing the system through as an open wave in the mid levels
rather than a closed off low that tracks through much slower.

Therefore confidence in timing is better this run than in previous
forecasts. Despite the model agreement there are still some
differences that exist with the models, especially how quickly
snow ends Tuesday night.

This system looks to occur in a few waves, with warm air advection
snow falling across the northern 2 3rds of the area Monday night
with the highest amounts across the north being the first wave.

The second wave will occur Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening
when the main surface low tracks to the south and snow falling
from the deformation zone of the main low concentrating across the
southern half of the cwa. Snow looks to then taper off later
Tuesday night as the main low shifts off to the east with a
possible contribution from lake michigan boosting totals near the
lakeshore. There is a period on Tuesday where there could be some
freezing rain that occurs as the column is moistening across
portions of east-central and northeast wisconsin, however this
looks to be short lived if it does occur and should not be a big
impact on the overall event itself.

Snowfall totals from this system, from Monday night through
Tuesday night, look to generally be in the 3 to 6 inch range, with
locally higher amounts possible. Despite these snowfall totals
this will be a relatively long-duration event so the headlines
that will need to be issued in subsequent forecasts is a bit murky
as warning criteria may not be met in the timeline required.

Therefore this looks to be a borderline high end advisory or low
end warning depending on if heavy snow can occur in a small enough
window or during a high impact time to warrant a tip in the
scales.

A clipper system will bring another chance for snow Thursday and
Thursday night. Given this system will be of canadian origin and
not tap into gulf moisture, snowfall amounts from this system will
be rather light. Once this clipper system exits most of the area
will be dry to end the week and into early next weekend. The main
exception will be across far north-central wisconsin where les
will continue through the rest of the forecast period. Several
inches of snow could fall in the les belt region of vilas county
during this period.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 555 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
generallyVFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area
through the TAF period. The only exceptions will be across
northcentral wisconsin where northerly boundary layer flow across
lake superior continues to bring bkn sc deck as far south as rhi
this evening. CIGS will generally hover around 3kft with perhaps
occasional MVFR CIGS and vsbys in widely scattered snow showers
especially north of the rhi TAF site. Elsewhere bkn sc deck will
impact far NE wisconsin around imt to mnm with cigs AOA 3kft.

Finally some lake-induced sc off lake michigan will brush mtw taf
site from time to time overnight but generallyVFR conditions
should prevail there.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Wind chill advisory from 1 am to 10 am cst Sunday for wiz005-
010>012-018-019.

Short term... ..Mg
long term... ... Kurimski
aviation... ... .Esb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi47 min N 25 G 31 14°F 1022.5 hPa (+0.6)6°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi29 min NNW 7 G 12 8°F 1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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--
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi51 minN 910.00 miFair6°F0°F73%1024.9 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi54 minN 910.00 miFair7°F-2°F66%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N11N10N9N8N10N11N11N10N10N11N11N9N12
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N8N9N8N9
1 day agoNW9NW8NW9NW12N10NW6NW6NW6NW7NW6NW5NW4N8N10N10N10N9NW6N54N5N7N8--
2 days agoN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4NW3NW3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.