Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:47 AM CDT (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 1:27AMMoonset 4:37PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 849 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am cdt Thursday through Thursday evening...
Tonight..E wind 10 to 15 kts veering se 15 to 25 kts after midnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday..SE wind 15 to 25 kts veering to the sw in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Occasional showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Friday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ543 Expires:201708171015;;498546 FZUS53 KGRB 170149 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 849 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-171015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 170411
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1111 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Update
Issued at 900 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
updated the hazardous weather outlook to include the possibility
of funnel clouds and isolated strong winds overnight. While cape
values are minimal, there is significant directional and speed
shear just ahead of the surface warm front that will move across
the forecast area later tonight. Lifted condensation levels are
very low, so brief funnels or even a short lived tornado are
possible provided there is a sufficient updraft available.

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 254 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
primary issue during this period is the passage of a deep upper
trough and frontal system, and associated precipitation trends
and heavy rainfall potential.

The forecast area remained under the influence of high pressure
over the northern great lakes and southeast ontario, and upper
level ridging. This was keeping the region dry this afternoon.

However, a band of showers and thunderstorms was organizing over
ia and northern il, in response to the approach of an 850 mb warm
front and a mid-level short-wave trof. These showers should reach
the southwest part of the forecast area by early evening.

The h8 warm front and short-wave trof will lift through the
region tonight, with a 30-40 kt LLJ resulting in strong moisture
convergence during the late evening and overnight hours. Pwats
are expected to increase to around 2 inches, with h8 dew points
climbing to around +15 c, so the air mass will be quite juicy.

Will go with categorical pops with the main band of showers and
storms overnight, and also increase QPF amounts. Not too
concerned with a threat of severe weather tonight, despite some
decent shear and marginal instability. The timing and elevated
nature of the storms will mitigate the threat of damaging winds,
and high wet bulb zero heights of 12k+ feet will be unfavorable
for large hail. Heavy rainfall will be an obvious threat, but
since the rain band is expected to shift north with the h8
boundary, most places should only receive an inch or less of
rain.

On Thursday, the upper level trof will move into the region,
and the surface cold occluded front will track through during
the day. CAPE will increase to 500-1500 j kg ahead of the
front, so a few strong storms could develop in the late morning
or afternoon, but the overall severe threat should remain low.

Most of the region should see a quarter to a half inch of rain,
with the most significant amounts over northern wi, closest
to the track of the surface and upper lows. Widespread cloud
cover and showers will hold temperatures back a bit, so have
lowered them a few degrees.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 254 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
500mb trough will exit the region Thursday night with a second
trough expected to swing across the area Friday night into
Saturday. Zonal flow pattern expected over the weekend with
a 500mb ridge buildings over the plains by the middle of next
week.

First system will move away from the region Thursday night.

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected behind the system along
with some lingering showers. The highest chances will be across
the north. A chance of showers lingers into Friday morning as high
pressure brings drier conditions to the region Friday afternoon.

The next weather maker is expected to now pass south of the area,
thus have gone with a dry forecast. A little leary about pulling
the rain chances completely as the 500mb trough passes over the
western great lakes region. The next system is expected to
approach the area late Sunday afternoon. Have a small chance of
showers and storms across the far north.

The weather becomes more unsettled Sunday night through Tuesday as
a slow moving cold front slowly sags south across the area. There
should be at least two rounds of showers and storms as the front
sags slowly southward. High pressure builds into the region
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Made minor adjustments to
account for latest temperature trends and to account for our
warmer locations during the day and our typical colder spots
at night.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1111 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
a warm front will produce MVFR ifr conditions and
showers and isolated thunderstorms as it moves north across the
region tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
Thursday as low pressure moves slowly across the area, along with
MVFR ifr ceilings in most places.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Rdm
short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 70°F 1009.3 hPa (-2.3)68°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 6 70°F 1009.3 hPa (-2.8)
45014 49 mi78 min E 12 G 16 69°F 72°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi52 minESE 105.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F90%1011.3 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi55 minESE 47.00 miLight Rain69°F69°F100%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4NE6E5E8E5SE9E8SE8SE6E7E7E5NE3NE3CalmCalmE10
1 day agoN7NE5NE3N4N5CalmN3NW4NW5NE5N64CalmE8SE7SE5SE6SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW33SE5SE4S8SE7SE5SE7SE7S5S7SE3SE3CalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.