Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 23, 2017 1:15 AM CDT (06:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 829 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday..S wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 4 to 6 ft. A chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Thursday night..S wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts by late evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Light rain.
Friday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw mid-day, then veering ne early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Light rain likely.
LMZ543 Expires:201703231015;;927552 FZUS53 KGRB 230129 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 829 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ541>543-231015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 230354
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1054 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 301 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
several potential pitfalls to the short-term forecast ranging from
extent of light snow late tonight/early Thursday morning, how fast
to bring precipitation back to the area Thursday afternoon and
what impact will all of this have on temperatures.

The 19z msas surface analysis indicated a large area of high
pressure over the great lakes. Several weak areas of low pressure
were located over the rockies which will eventually organize into
one main system. Visible satellite imagery showed a dissipating
band of lake clouds over far eastern wi, but also showed the
leading edge of WAA clouds marching across the upper midwest.

Under these clouds, the radar mosaic had picked up on light
returns. However, there was no ground truth and most of these
returns were likely virga.

Mostly clear skies with light southeast winds will prevail this
evening, however the clouds to our west will overspread central wi
toward midnight and eastern wi during the wee hours of the morning
as WAA increases over the region. A stronger push of waa, coupled
with a weak shortwave topping a modest upper ridge, will bring a
chance of light snow to central wi toward daybreak. Temperatures
are expected to quickly fall this evening, then stabilize as the
clouds arrive overnight. Look for readings to range in the upper
teens to around 20 degrees north, mainly 20 to 25 degrees south.

The chance of light snow will linger into early Thursday morning,
but forecast soundings do indicate a very dry air mass at low-
levels of the atmosphere, thus we may see more virga than actual
light snow. A dusting would appear to be the best we can do,
mainly across the north. Much of northeast wi could then be dry
for several hours on Thursday as the main system to still be
moving through the rockies. That being said, increasing moisture
transport through the day, coupled with persistent waa, could
bring increasing rain chances to the forecast area Thursday
afternoon (especially late in the day). MAX temperatures are
expected to reach the middle to upper 30s north, upper 30s to
lower 40s south.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 301 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
pattern in the long term forecast remains active with many
challenges revolving around precipitation types through the
weekend and early next week.

Focus starts on Thursday night with the first main wave of
precipitation likely to have started, or start soon, as moisture
surges into the area. Good confidence that the south will remain
rain through the night. Locations roughly north of hwy 29 have a
chance to see a transition to freezing rain as surface
temperatures cool overnight. Models vary on how cold it will get
Thursday night. GFS is the warmest and suggests a longer period of
rain to the north, while NAM drops temps to the north below
freezing earlier, which would result in the potential for ice
accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch, or even two tenths
in some locations. Given the uncertainly, and how dependent the
precip type is on surface and road temperatures, confidence in
amount of ice accumulation is not high. Also, would not be
surprised to hear a few claps of thunder Thursday evening, mainly
to the south and west, as lapse rates are around 6.5 to 7.5 c/km,
but the most unstable air is much further south and west and focus
remains on freezing rain potential in the north.

Good confidence that any freezing precipitation will change to
liquid by late Friday morning. For the rest of the weekend, long
term models don't vary too much on the overall track and timing
of the main surface low. Questions still revolve around available
moisture (especially north), temperatures, and timing of precip
type changes. Expect a repeated pattern through Monday with rain
during the day and freezing/mixed precipitation possible
overnight. With colder and drier air filtering into the north this
weekend, the ice accumulation potential does not appear as high
these nights, and any accumulations look to remain minor.

The pattern next week continues to send a train of systems from
the southwest towards the midwest and ohio river valley area,
however models diverge this far out with numerous track and timing
differences. Would expect the general active pattern to continue
with on and off precipitation chances.

High temperatures through the period will generally be around
or slightly above seasonal normals, with low temperatures
expected to be slightly above seasonal normals.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1051 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
high pressure over the great lakes is forecast to shift to the
east tonight and allow for a southerly wind to return to wi. An
increase in mid-level clouds tonight will mark the arrival of
warmer air. Enough saturation may occur over northern wi late
tonight into Thursday morning to produce flurries and patchy light
snow, along with a stratocumulus cloud deck. After a brief break
in the precipitation chances in the late morning and early
afternoon, a chance of light rain is expected to return later
Thursday afternoon. MainlyVFR conditions are expected through
Thursday afternoon.

Flight conditons will deteriorate Thursday evening as steadier
rains arrive and ceilings/vsbys lower to MVFR. As temperatures
cool across northern wi, some freezing rain is expected to
develop. In addition, llws is expected to develop, as south to
southwest winds increase to 40 to 50 kts in the 1500-2000 ft agl
layer.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Klb
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi76 min SSE 7 G 8 29°F 1033.5 hPa (-0.3)19°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi46 min S 8.9 G 9.9 29°F 1031.9 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair21°F19°F92%1034.7 hPa
Sheboygan, Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair21°F17°F85%1033.1 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N6N6N7N9N8N95N3NE4CalmCalmSE10SE7SE10SE6SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4W9W7W10NW7NW11NW11NW14
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2 days agoS10S10S10S5S7SW7SW3Calm3NW8N7N9E8NE9
G15
NE7NE5NE3NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.