Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Two Rivers, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:43PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 11:52 PM CST (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 903 Pm Cst Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts veering W 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Clear.
Thursday..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of flurries in the morning.
Thursday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Friday..SW wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts in the late morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave height forecasts are for ice free areas.
LMZ543 Expires:201801181115;;612675 FZUS53 KGRB 180303 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 903 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-181115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Rivers, WI
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location: 44.15, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 180256
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
856 pm cst Wed jan 17 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 850 pm cst Wed jan 17 2018
although winds are still quite gusty along the lakeshore, the
surface pressure gradient is expected to relax a little overnight.

Snow should also be settling into the locations to which it
drifted. Will allow the advisory to expire as scheduled at 900 pm.

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 252 pm cst Wed jan 17 2018
dry conditions prevailed across the area during the afternoon
hours. Main weather concern for the rest of the afternoon and
evening will be gusty SW W winds that will create some blowing and
drifting snow. Visibilities down to around 1 mile have been
reported across parts of northern and far eastern wi. Expect
these conditions to continue through the early evening before
mixing diminishes and winds die down. Will let the winter weather
advisory continue for door, kewaunee, and manitowoc, as many
county rural roads could still be experiencing some drifting.

Advisory may be cancelled early if winds die off faster than
expected near after sunset. The worst conditions are expected
across door county, where the most snowfall fell Sunday night into
Monday night.

Elsewhere, just patchy drifting snow (maybe a little blowing snow
as well) is expected through sunset, with the worst conditions in
open, rural areas. Otherwise, a dry night is expected. Although
winds die off this evening, they will remain in the 5 to 15 mph
for much of the night as boundary layer winds stay up, but gusts
should be reduced as a strong inversion keeps the stronger winds
from making it to the surface. The winds won't allow temps to
plummet, despite the mostly clear skies, with lows ranging from
the single digits to middle teens for most spots.

A small, compact and potent shortwave clipper system will dive
from southern manitoba this evening into upper michigan Thursday
morning. Models in general agreement on strength and track of this
feature. However, there is some disagreement on if any snow will
be associated with it. Despite the strong dynamics, the
nam gfs ECMWF are all dry, with the gem showing around 0.01" near
the mi wi border. Meso-models are a little more aggressive with
coverage and tend to favor that idea. Will increase pops and snow
amounts over northern wi, but think accumulations will mainly be
under a half inch. Also added some flurries south of the snow
shower activity. Any lingering snow flurry activity should end
early Thursday as the system quickly exits the area. High temps
look to be above normal for much of the area, with readings
climbing into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 252 pm cst Wed jan 17 2018
a system that is expected to impact the area this weekend into
early next week is the main forecast concern through mid week.

Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week and then
southwest as a mid level trough moves into the western conus. A
cutoff 500 mb low is expected to develop as the trough reaches
the plains before it then moves into the great lakes region by
early next week. There are differences among the 12z models in the
forecast path, timing and strength of the surface and upper level
features, so exact precipitation amount and types remain in
question.

Warmer temperatures are in store for the area into the weekend as
flow aloft becomes southwest and a surface system approaches the
region. Much warmer than normal conditions should persist into
early next week before cold air wraps around the departing surface
low and closed mid level circulation. Colder, but near normal
temperatures are forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday.

Based on a blend of the models, there is only a slight chance for
snow across parts of the area late Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Chance pops enter the picture starting Sunday afternoon,
with snow expected in the north, rain in eastern and parts of
central wisconsin, with rain and or snow from northeast into parts
of central wisconsin. Precipitation should change to snow Sunday
night as the boundary layer cools and snow pops are likely or
higher during the night and on Monday. A change to rain or a mix
is expected on Monday as the boundary layer warms. Precipitation
should all be in the form of snow by Monday evening and chances
for snow drop off on Tuesday as the surface and upper systems
depart. After that, there is only some lake effect potential
downwind from lake superior through Wednesday.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 850 pm cst Wed jan 17 2018
llws is still expected to ease some overnight into early
Thursday, then increase as a compact upper system passes just
northeast of the area. There are still a lot of questions about
the low cloud potential. A low cloud deck is shifting ese from
canada, but it just does not look like it will make it into the
area unless additional clouds develop to its south. This is
possible given the strong inversion across the region, but seems a
bit less likely than earlier. Will continue to monitor the latest
trends and make an issuance time decision on how to handle the
situation in the tafs. Expect rhi to primarily be the site
affected.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Bersch
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 22 mi53 min W 13 G 19 21°F 1014.3 hPa (-0.4)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 29 mi53 min WSW 14 G 18 22°F 1018.1 hPa (-1.0)10°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI6 mi57 minWSW 8 G 1810.00 miFair20°F10°F65%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W9W10W9W12W11W10SW12
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1 day agoN9NW9NW8NW9NW8N11N13NW11NW11N13N13NW13NW12N10N10NW7NW5W3W3W3W7W6W5W6
2 days agoS14
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S11S10SW6S5SW5SW3CalmCalmN4SE9
G18
SE16
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SE14E12E10E9E7NE4N4N5N7N7N7N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.