Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Two Rivers, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201902210515;;246539 Fzus53 Kgrb 202045 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 245 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-210515- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 245 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Tonight..SE wind 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts veering sw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow with possible freezing drizzle and drizzle before midnight.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Friday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy. Wave height forecast is for ice free areas.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Rivers, WI
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location: 44.15, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 202055
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
255 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 254 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
main concern in the short-term will be the continued freezing
drizzle and and snow into the early evening hours. Have continued
the winter weather advisory to account for the slippery travel,
impacting the evening commute, along with the additional light
accumulations expected.

Water vapor imagery shows the well defined shortwave sliding across
northern ia southern mn this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
shows a very widespread cloud deck across much of the upper great
lakes region, stretching all the way down into the mid-mississippi
valley. Radar trends continue to show heavier returns across much of
the north half of wi, with addition lighter returns sliding form
southwest to northeast across northeast ia and eastern mn. The south
half of wi shows even lighter returns and surface obs continue to
show drizzle freezing drizzle lifting northward.

Tonight: the surface low will be directly overhead this evening as
an associated shortwave slides through the area. These features will
keep enough moisture and forcing in place to allow snow to continue
through early to mid evening. Deep layer 1000-500mb rh continues to
indicate that the dry slot may pivot into east-central and possibly
northeastern wisconsin during this time period. That would be the
time period with the greatest precipitation type issues as the
moisture becomes more shallow and generally below the -10c isotherm.

This would diminish the chances for ice crystals in the cloud layer,
allowing for at least a chance of some light freezing drizzle. The
rest of the area, will likely keep enough deep moisture in place to
keep the precipitation in the form of snow. The snow will diminish
from southwest to northeast by mid evening as the better forcing
lifts to the north and east of the area and drier air advects into
the area. Storm total snowfall should range in the 3 to 6 inch range
with a couple higher totals possible over the north half. Locations
over the central and east-central wi may end up seeing snow totals
closer to the 1 to 3 inch range as more freezing drizzle graupel has
mixed in this afternoon. Additionally, with the dry slot moving
through this evening, that trend will continue over the east.

Otherwise, cloudy skies will linger with overnight lows dropping
into the upper teens to low 20s.

Thursday: the aforementioned surface low and shortwave will slide
across ontario and into quebec as a surface ridge builds in from the
mid-mississippi valley. This will allow most of the area to see a
break in the precipitation through this time period. The exception
may be across north-central locations, where a surface trough is
expected to linger. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation,
but there could be some light snow showers up that way during the
day. The most likely outcome will be increased cloud cover as
moisture forcing does not look deep enough to allow for much in the
way of precipitation. The remainder of the area will likely see
decreasing clouds with mostly cloudy skies to start the day and
partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 254 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
forecast concerns mainly revolve around the next winter storm which
is expected to impact the area in two parts this weekend. The
medium range models appear to be in good agreement with this system,
so a blend of the GFS and ECMWF should work.

Thursday night through Friday night... Generally quiet conditions
will be present on Thursday night and Friday thanks to high pressure
at the surface. Broken low clouds could linger into Thursday
evening over northern wi. Otherwise should see partial clearing
take place as low clouds retreat to the north over the course of the
evening. An area of mid-clouds will likely return some cloud cover
Thursday overnight into Friday morning, but dry air from the surface
high should prevent any precip. The dry conditions should continue
into Friday evening with only scattered to broken clouds overhead.

Then as a low level jet strengthens ahead of troughing moving into
the northern plains, increasing isentropic ascent and mid-level
moisture transport will lead to precip spreading in from the west
late Friday evening through Friday overnight. Forecast soundings
suggest mainly snow will be possible across the region, though
freezing drizzle will be also be possible at times since mid-level
moisture is thins out occasionally. Perhaps up to an inch will be
possible by Saturday morning, highest north and west of the fox
valley, with a some spotty ice thrown in there as well.

Rest of the forecast... Light precip is expected to continue into
Saturday morning but should generally be diminishing as the low
level jet veers and weakens at the same time. Think concerns will
increasingly center around freezing drizzle over north-central wi as
most areas lose mid-level moisture for significant amounts of time,
and temps warm above freezing by mid-morning over east-central wi.

With the lull in the precip expected during the afternoon, the main
surge of precip is anticipated to arrive Saturday evening ahead of a
potent shortwave trough and intensifying low pressure system. With
the arrival of the precip, a wintry mix looks possible across much
of the area, with more rain likely over eastern wi, and more snow
over far northern wi. A swath of freezing rain also appears
possible, though too early to determine where the highest potential
for that will occur quite yet. The column is expected to gradually
cool through the evening thereby changing precip to all snow at most
locations. Heavy snow is then expected to continue into Sunday
morning. Strong and gusty north to northwest winds will lead to
blowing and drifting of the new snow on Sunday, which will make for
extremely hazardous travel. In terms of potential snowfall, 6 to 10
inches, with locally higher amounts remains possible north and west
of the fox valley.

The snow and wind diminish on Sunday evening as colder arctic air
filters in a the same time. High pressure will then bring quiet
weather for Monday. Models indicate another system could impact the
region in the Monday night and Tuesday time period, but large spread
in the model solutions makes confidence low by this time.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1142 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
continued ifr to occasional lifr conditions can be expected into
this evening as heavier snow and lower ceilings slide through the
area. There may be some breaks to MVFR at times for the eastern
taf sites. The best chance for seeing lifr conditions will be at
auw, CWA and rhi. Improving conditions can then be expected
overnight and especially during the day Thursday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 22 mi31 min SSE 14 G 16 32°F 1002.3 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 29 mi61 min S 15 G 18 33°F 1003.6 hPa (-2.9)33°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI6 mi65 minSSE 121.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1005.2 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE10SE12E10E13E17E18
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW3W4W6W5W5W5W4W4W5W7SW8SW5E4S6S8
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N11N10N9N11N10N11N12N12N13N12N10NW10NW8NW9NW8NW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.