Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 4:04 AM   Moonset 4:59 PM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 314 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning, then 1 to 3 nm late. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.

ANZ100 314 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure over maritime canada and low pressure over the great lakes combine to continue southeast flow across the gulf of maine today rain, low clouds, and some fog develop through this afternoon and evening then depart Monday morning. A cold front crosses the waters later Monday bringing fresh southwesterly to westerly flow and clearing conditions. Low pressure remains nearby through the week with a couple opportunities for more organized waves to traverse the waters, leading to periods of rainy weather and potentially active seas.

FXUS61 KGYX 050355 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1155 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions will persist through tonight as high pressure remains northeast of New England. An approaching frontal boundary will bring periods of light rain to the area on Sunday and Sunday evening before a cold front crosses on Monday morning. Behind this front, warmer temperatures and dry conditions will return before unsettled weather arrives again for the middle and end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

11:55pm Update... The forecast remains on track tonight as clouds steadily thicken across the area. Haven't seen many signs of fog yet, but with the airmass near saturation the patchy fog is expected to develop soon.

7:55pm Update... No notable changes with the forecast for tonight. Updated temps and cloud cover based on trends so far this evening, and the latest high res guidance. Moisture is increasing across the area again tonight, with patchy fog expected to develop as breaks in the overcast persist into the overnight and allow for patchy radiational cooling.

Previous...

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows high altitude cirrus streaming from northwest to southeast over an h5 ridge axis, which is in addition to a cu field that developed in response to some weak forcing and sfc heating. A sea breeze has developed, which is pushing inland and behind this front a pocket of clearing has developed. Current temperatures are into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the interior with lower 50s along the coast. Other than an isolated shower across the north, it will continue to be a dry day under partly sunny skies.

Surface high pressure will continue to drift northeast of the region tonight as a frontal boundary approaches from the west and the h5 ridge axis crests overhead. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy overnight with some patchy fog possible as lows fall into the lower to middle 40s. Latest hi-res guidance indicates that forcing for ascent from the approaching front likely won't arrive until towards dawn on Sunday across western NH and therefore other than an isolated shower towards the CT River Valley it will remain dry overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
The front will continue to approach from the west on Sunday with periods of light rain overspreading the area from west to east. Rain will begin in NH during the morning but it may not arrive over western ME until the afternoon. Rainfall amounts through the daytime hours will light with around 1/4" or less.
It will otherwise be a cloudy day with cool high temperatures into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

The main batch of stratiform rain will exit the coast within a few hours either side of midnight on Sunday morning with just a few lingering showers in its wake. Fog will once again be possible due to light winds and lingering LL moisture. Lows will once again be primarily into the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The 500 Mb pattern across the N Hemisphere remains very blocky, with mostly moderate amplification, through much of next week but more amplified troughing to our W. This will act as a wave generator, and allow weak waves to move across N England over several days mid to late week, with cooler onshore flow likely again, at least part of the time.

Monday and Tuesday should be decent, although, could see some lingering SHRA early Monday, which may linger through midday in the mtns. Morning clouds give way to at least partly sunny skies in the afternoon as well. Overall the day should show gradual improvement. 850 mb temps approaching +10C should allow for for temps to rise into the 70s across much of the area, with mainly SW winds. Models suggesting more of a turn to the S along the SW ME which will not be a full sea breeze there, at least until late in the day, and highs on the coast should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s, which will be similar to the mtns. Mon night looks mainly clear and cool, with lows mostly in the 40s, but might only fall into the low 50s in srn NH. Tuesday looks slightly warmer than Monday, and with more sun as well, as sfc high crosses the region. Highs will once again be in the 70s most place, but could reach into the upper 70s in srn NH. The coast and mtns once again top out in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday night we start to cloud up late with lows in the 40s once again.

Things go downhill Wed as we get into a flatter pattern with a weak ridge that gets hit by waves from 500 mb closed low meandering over the west and central US. This will keep sfc high to the N with a series of lows riding to the S of it, and allow for mostly onshore flow and rounds of showers /not unlike what we saw earlier this week/. While it is not likely to rain every period in the extended, it also not likely to clear that much either in between the bouts of showers, and highs are likely to remain below normal, mainly in the 50s most days, occnly reaching into the low to mid 60s in some spots. This pattern looks like it will hold into Saturday, bu any stronger wave that kick the closed low more quickly to the E, could kick this pattern out of the area, so confidence is low late in the forecast.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through the evening before deteriorating to MVFR and locally IFR later tonight through Sunday morning due to lowering ceilings and patchy FG.
Conditions then improve some after 12Z Sunday but MVFR ceilings will likely persist through the day along with periods of -RA.
MVFR to IFR restrictions are then likely Sunday night as -RA ends by around 04Z Monday but patchy FG and scattered -SHRA continues. No LLWS is expected.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Monday into Tuesday night. By Wed and Thu we will be in a familiar pattern with showers and mainly onshore flow, so flight restrictions a good bet during the period.

MARINE
Short Term...Light southeasterly winds will continue through tonight before strengthening up to around 20 kts Sunday night with seas increasing to 1-3 ft, highest outside of the bays.
An approaching front will bring periods of rain Sunday through Sunday night along with potential fog.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through the period although SE winds will start to pick up a bit on Wed/Thu.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nehumkeag Island
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Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:38 PM EDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehumkeag Island, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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