Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 9:13PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:56 AM EDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:25AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 336 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon...then veering to the northwest late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201707221500;;634895 FZUS53 KDTX 220736 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-221500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221043
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
643 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 334 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Shower chances increasing again tonight...

high impact weather potential... Stray, non-svr t-storms here and
there today and tonight. Locally heavy rain possible eastern upper
mi late tonight.

A skinny surface ridge is moving east of lake huron. Upstream, a
surface low is in eastern neb western iowa, with a warm front
extending into central il in, suppressed southward by mcs
activity. Further north, a weak surface low was along the nd mn
border, with a quasi- warm front of its own extending into upper
mi. Deep convection presently extends from N central iowa to
toledo. Sct to nmrs light showers are occurring near south of
m-72, along the far northern fringe of this activity. An earlier
mcs to our wnw has fallen apart, outside of some showers east of
the keweenaw. Precip trends are the main concern.

Today... MCS remnants, and forcing associated with mcvs, will help
maintain some spotty showers this morning, primarily in the south.

In general the hi-res models have overstated precip this far north,
as activity to our south devours all the instability. Speaking of
which, any am thunder threat looks to be fleeting at best, with
substantial instability staying south of i-96, and the ongoing mcs
to our south cutting off any attempt to bring this north. Mcs
remnants will thin and or exit as the morning
will have plenty of cloud cover to start the day in most of northern
lower. Still, the mid high debris clouds will thin with time,
allowing the Sun to peek thru occasionally. (there will be
somewhat more in the way of sunshine in eastern upper mi this
morning.) can we destabilize enough to pop some afternoon
convection? Temps will push to around 80f in spots, while dew
points remain in the sticky mid 60s. That helps build MLCAPE we
still have warmish temps aloft though, with 725mb temps of 9c
providing a cap that will take a bit of work to get past. With a
weak easterly synoptic breeze, lake breezes might provide a
sufficient trigger, but overall this is not an impressive setup
for convection. Hard to justify more than a 20 pop in parts of nw
lower, near saginaw bay, and in western portions of eastern upper
mi.

Max temps mainly upper 70s to around 80f, a touch cooler on the lake
huron coast.

Tonight... Generally better precip chances tonight than today. Closed-
off 500mb wave now near lake winnipeg will move se-ward, and be
located near the keweenaw by Sunday morning. Associated surface low
will advance toward eastern superior and eastern upper mi. Shower
coverage will increase with time tonight, especially NW of a cad-apn
line. Cooling temps aloft and associated steepening lapse rates will
keep MUCAPE values to increase some overnight, reaching 500j kg in
parts of NW lower eastern upper mi. So a thunder risk is certainly
in order, though a svr threat is not. However, this looks like a
sneakily-efficient rain producer, especially in eastern upper, as
overall moisture availability is high, and the system is relatively
slow-moving. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch in portions of
eastern upper from late tonight into Sunday morning. Nowhere near
enough for flooding issues, but a potential good soaking.

Min temps near 60 to the mid 60s.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 334 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
high impact weather potential... The possibility of severe weather
along and south of m-72 with a slight risk along and south of m-55.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A potent 500 mb shortwave trough moves
down across lake superior and lake huron through the day. On the
southern side of the trough, is a 40 knot speed MAX on the gfs,
while the ECMWF has the jet MAX further downstate. The models have
that the best time for convection looks to be in the morning as the
trough moves through E upper. During the afternoon, the trough moves
east and drier air begins to squash the convection as well as the
caa at the sfc and 850 mb. High pressure then begins to build into
the region overnight, so that the showers will be in NE lower during
the evening, than move off overnight into lake huron. This sets up
for dry Monday as high pressure dominates for the next 24 hours
through Monday night.

Primary forecast concerns... A little concerned with the timing of
the thunderstorm chances as any convection from Saturday night could
affect the amount that gets going Sunday morning. Also, sfc
temperatures begin to fall off, especially in the north, so that
rain will be likely, but chance for severe thunderstorms would
likely remain south of m-55, and probably us-10. Again the
confidence level of where convection and this boundary sets up is
low.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 334 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

High pressure looks to dominate the next week...

high impact weather potential... Elevated fire danger Tuesday and
thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Extended (Tuesday through Friday)... High pressure and dry air look
to dominate the region through the day 4-7 period with the Tuesday
afternoon looking to possibly having low min rh, before the return
flow moves into the region ahead of the next cold front, which looks
to begin to move through the region Tuesday night. With this
happening along a cold front at night, there will be thunder
chances, but think that severe thunder is unlikely given how we
probably need better destabilization out ahead of the cold front. If
this timing on the models is to be believed, there could be issues
Wednesday south of m-72, but it will depend on how much we can heat
up before the front moves through by 00z. By Wednesday night, the
next big high pressure moves into the region and remains through
Saturday. Temperatures look to be around normal (around 80f), so am
a little concerned that with the prolonged dryness that the min rh
in the afternoons, especially for Friday and Saturday could drop to
sub 30%. Winds don't look to be an issue, but warm temperatures and
low rh could elevate the fire danger going into the weekend. Won't
put that into the hwo, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 643 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
vfr today with some showers, especially early. MVFR CIGS late
tonight.

A couple of areas of low pressure to our west will cross mi on
Sunday. Some sporadic rain chances will be seen today, especially
this morning. Showers will increase again from NW to SE tonight,
especially overnight into NW lower mi. Lower CIGS will accompany
the rain, and MVFR CIGS are expected to develop at all TAF sites
overnight.

Light east winds today, becoming variable tonight.

Marine
Issued at 334 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
light east to SE winds will be seen into tonight, ahead of low
pressure systems in the central and northern plains. The northern
low will eventually cross northern mi on Sunday, with a light N to
ne breeze behind it by Sunday night. No advisories will be
necessary during this forecast.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi57 min NE 6 G 9.9 73°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 61 mi57 min NW 5.1 G 13 70°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi77 min NW 2.9 G 6 69°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi64 minE 39.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3S44SW5W53CalmW6W7N7CalmNW3CalmCalmN5E3NE5SE5SW6W5N5E3
1 day agoSW6W7W10W18
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W13W12NW7NW10NW10N8N3NW43CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW5N5NE65NW8W5W6SW63W8W10W7NW5NW4CalmE4E4E5E4E4SE4E3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.