Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 10, 2018 4:19 AM EST (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 354 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201812101615;;572373 FZUS53 KDTX 100854 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-101615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 100758
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
258 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Overall quiet and mainly cloudy conditions persist thru tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure
remains centered from the rockies thru the plains and into the great
lakes region early this morning. A stationary front remains poised
just north of the great lakes region attached to an area of moisture-
starved low pressure centered over north central canada. Closer to
home... A large area of low clouds is holding over much of michigan.

Some clearing is trying to take place around the leelanau peninsula
and grand traverse bay... But low clouds are quickly filling back in.

Temps are generally holding in the mid to upper 20s attm.

As we head into today and tonight... That area of low pressure will
slide SE to lake superior by early evening and will then stall over
the northern great lakes region thru tonight. Again... This system is
rather moisture-starved and relatively weak. Primary impact of this
system will be the arrival of colder air that will accompany it.

Persistent but shallow low level moisture will deepen just a bit as
this system slides thru the region. Colder air will activate the
lakes... Providing enough over-lake instability to produce scattered
light lake effect snow showers and possibly some patchy freezing
drizzle for the typical snowbelt areas late tonight. Expect this
light precip will have little to no impact for our cwa.

Otherwise... Expect overall conditions will remain mostly cloudy
today and tonight across our entire cwa. SE sections of our CWA may
see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon. High temps this
afternoon will reach into the lower 30s. Low temps tonight will cool
back into the low to mid 20s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Remaining rather cloudy with snow shower chances...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Primary forecast concerns... Cloud cover and light precipitation
chances.

A weak northern stream short wave will bring small chances for light
precipitation Tuesday. This should be mainly in the form of light
snow showers as model soundings show cold air moisture deepening.

Not much going on Tuesday night then another weak trough moving in
from the west later Wednesday will bring another chance for a little
light snow. Highs in the lower and mid 30s and lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Maybe some snow or mixed rain and snow...

high impact weather potential... None expected at this time.

Still no big changes expected with the arctic air remaining to our
north. This leaves northern michigan generally in a zonal flow aloft
with a system or two to possibly contend with. Extended model
guidance is still not in very good agreement so confidence in the
details is on the low side. The first trough moves in from the west
late Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by another one moving
up from the south Thursday night into Friday. Thermal profiles are
marginal on precipitation type for both systems but precipitation
looks to fall mainly in the form of light snow. It then looks quiet
to start off the weekend with ridging aloft. A weak northern stream
trough will then bring chances for mainly snow showers heading into
Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the
period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1149 pm est Sun dec 9 2018
mainly MVFR cigs.

Stubborn low cloud deck holds across the TAF sites, though some
breaks are approaching mbl and perhaps even tvc from lake mi.

Still expect MVFR will prevail for overnight and much of Monday.

It is possible that the low clouds will thin out in spots Monday,
especially at tvc and apn.

Relatively light W to SW winds.

Marine
Issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria in most of our lake michigan
nearshore areas this afternoon and tonight in advance of low
pressure swinging thru the northern great lakes. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy during the first part of the work week. Scattered
light lake effect snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle are
possible late tonight into Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Tuesday for lmz342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi80 min NNW 4.1 G 11 27°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 61 mi40 min WSW 7 G 9.9 28°F 1023.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi40 min W 4.1 G 6 28°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi27 minW 310.00 miOvercast26°F21°F81%1024 hPa

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W9W7W12W9NW11
G19
W9NW10W10W12W9W6W8NW5W9NW8NW9NW7W5SW6SW5SW5W4W3
1 day agoW10W7W9W9W11
G18
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W10W12W7W7W7W7W5SW4SW4SW4W5SW5SW4S4CalmSW3SW5SW7
2 days agoW5W6W3W5SW3SW5SW5CalmS5S6S6SW4W10W11
G19
W9NW8W10W10W6W5W7W7W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.