Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 340 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy. Numerous light showers in the morning, then scattered light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201906201515;;772497 FZUS53 KDTX 200740 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-201515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201034
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
634 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
impactful weather: showers ending.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a SRN stream shortwave and associated area of low pressure is
drifting across the SRN great lakes early this morning, and is
resulting in periods of light rain for areas close to saginaw bay.

The rain has been aided by dpva and right entrance region upper jet
dynamics. Otherwise, sfc high pressure and drier air extending from
ontario down through the plains was working into the region. All was
relatively quiet.

The shortwave, associated sfc low pressure and forcing all press
eastward through the morning, ending all rain chances. The drier air
in northerly flow takes more control over the region, with scattered
cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon, coupled with some likely
increase continuation of higher level clouds within general upper
level troughiness and cool-ish conditions.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s with lows tonight in the
id to upper 40s most areas.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by early Friday morning, two primary
weather features are expected to encompass much of the north
america. Once upper-level low across quebec and another pinwheeling
across the pacific northwest. In between, mid-level ridging
encompasses the midwest and western great lakes. Attendant surface
ridge axis is expected to wedge into the area through the great
lakes and ohio valley aiding to lead to a relatively tranquil period
of sensible weather overall before turning more active Sunday into
early mid next week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: low end shower chances across
far southwestern locales... Mainly Saturday.

Fairly tranquil conditions expected across northern michigan Friday
as aforementioned surface ridging wedges into the region leading to
mostly sunny skies and light winds with near-normal temperatures.

Highs expected to range from the low-mid 70s area-wide... Coolest
near the lakeshores as afternoon lake breeze development seem like a
solid bet at this point. Overnight lows in the mid-40s across the
typically cooler inland locales of northeast lower and eastern
upper... To the upper 40s-low 50s elsewhere.

Meanwhile, more warm unstable air will be building off to our west-
southwest Friday through Saturday. A well-defined mid-level wave is
expected to be trekking across the midwest during the day Saturday,
which may send a few errant showers toward southwestern portions of
the forecast area, particularly midday Saturday into the afternoon.

By and large, however, would expect most areas to escape from any
shower activity and be rain free through the afternoon. High temps
climb a couple degrees over Friday's highs... Ranging from the mid-
upper 70s area-wide. Southeast winds may be just a bit too high to
allow for lake breeze development off of lake michigan, but
certainly will provide cooler temps near along the lake huron
shoreline and across southeastern chip mack counties.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
high impact weather potential: thunderstorm chances return at
various times Sunday into early next week.

A return to more active weather is anticipated at times Sunday
through the end of the forecast period toward the middle of next
week. Aforementioned mid-level ridging across the midsection of the
country Friday-Saturday will slide through the region for the
balance of the weekend into the start of next week. Focus will
initially revolve around shortwave troughing expected to cross
northern michigan during the day Sunday. The GFS is most bullish
with this wave, but some semblance appears on nearly all other
global models despite readily apparent timing amplitude differences.

As was alluded to by the prior shift, thunderstorm potential
(specifically severe weather potential) could become a bit
intriguing later Sunday into Sunday night and again Monday as
warmer more unstable air advects into the region ahead of a surface
warm front tied to low pressure set to cross the great lakes later
Monday Monday night. This coupled with strengthening winds aloft
may lead to an increased threat for a few stronger severe storms.

Certainly plenty of time for the details to come into line over the
next couple of days, but is a time frame worth monitoring.

Occasionally showery weather is expected to continue Tuesday-
Wednesday as the system continues to swing through the region.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 629 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
sfc low pressure was crossing the region early this morning, with
periods of light rain continuing near saginaw bay, south and east
of all TAF sites. The pressure gradient will be tight enough for
n NE to be a touch gusty at times today. However, high pressure
and drier air extending from ontario down through the plains will
slowly work eastward into the region later tonight into Friday.

This will result in no chances of precipitation, and a return of
light winds with lake breezes Friday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
sfc low pressure was crossing the region early this morning, with
periods of light rain continuing near saginaw bay. High pressure
extending from ontario down through the plains was slowly working
eastward and will overtake the region Friday. A loose pressure
gradient continues the theme of sub-advisory winds waves.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi60 min NE 18 G 20 58°F 1004.1 hPa (+0.0)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi80 min N 4.1 G 8 56°F 1005.1 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi67 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F52°F81%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6CalmN3CalmNE6NE5E4E3CalmE3CalmSE3E6N5NE6NE6NE6NE6NE5NE5NE4NE6NE10NE12
1 day agoSW5SW5CalmSW7SW55W6SW6W6W5N7NE3NE4NE3E4CalmNE3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoE5CalmSW7W5W75W6W5W3S5S7S5E5E4CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmW4W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.