Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neenah, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:31PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:39 AM CST (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ543 Expires:201902202315;;235732 Fzus53 Kgrb 201556 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 956 Am Cst Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-202315- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 956 Am Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
This afternoon..SE wind 15 to 20 kts. A few gusts to 25 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Periods of snow and a chance of freezing drizzle.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kts veering W and increasing to 15 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Snow diminishing during the evening. Freezing drizzle also possible.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neenah, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.18, -88.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrb 201224 aaa
afdgrb
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service green bay wi
624 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 618 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
higher radar returns have surged into east-central wisconsin. There
is still an issue with dry air to overcome, as suggested by the
fact the visibility on surface observations is undergoing
substantial rapid fluctuations. But this effect should lessen with
time as saturation occurs. Will update the advisory to officially
begin immediately in east-central wisconsin, and keep the
original 15z start in the north. In a practical sense, this change
will be of limited meaning because our long-fused winter
headlines will always have "in effect" wording once we are within
3 hours of the official start time of the hazard.

Updated product suite will be out asap.

Synopsis
Issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
an active weather pattern with a round of snow today; the
probability of a major winter storm this weekend is increasing.

The large scale pattern will continue to be dominated by high
upper heights over the northeast pacific. The downstream flow will
be split, with the bulk of the energy composing a strong,
amplified southern stream that will encompass most of the conus.

The southern stream trough position will remain over the desert
southwest, with ridging over the southeast states.

This is a very active weather pattern for the forecast area as
energy ejecting out of the southwest u.S. Trough will interact
with a strong baroclinic zone across the area and northward surges
of gulf moisture to produce significant precipitation, resulting
in well above normal amounts for the period. The main
precipitation episodes will occur as an occluded cyclone crosses
the area today, and with a rapidly deepening cyclone expected to
cross the region during the weekend. The southwest upper flow will
result in AOA normal temperatures.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
no changes to forecast headlines this morning. The previous
forecast still looked pretty much on track, with just some
adjustments made to keep it in line with the latest observational
trends (in terms of the onset of the snow) and expected snowfall
totals. The new totals are about an inch or so higher across about
the northwest 3 4 of the forecast area. That takes them right up
to the warning criteria threshold (6 inches 12 hours). Fully
expect some areas to reach that, but don't anticipate them
exceeding it by a lot. In addition, this is not going to be a very
windy storm, and with just a modest increase in snow from the
previous forecast, the best course of actions seemed to be to just
stick with the advisory. The evolution of the comma head on
satellite imagery continues to suggest the heaviest snows will
fall NW and W of the area.

Low-level dry air lingering across the area from the departing
anticyclone was slowing the northward progress of the
precipitation early this morning. Local meso plots suggest the 850
mb rh over east-central wisconsin was still around 10% at
forecast issuance time. The dry air is likely to slow the
northward progress for a few more hours, especially over the
northeast part of the area. The arrival of stronger lift and
veering low-level flow should allow for a rapid northward
expansion of the precipitation in the 12z-16z time frame. Once
saturation occurs, snow should continue for the rest of the day.

The possible exception is east-central wisconsin where hi-res
models suggest a break may occur late morning before
precipitation fills back in for the afternoon. Thermal profiles
support snow across the entire area--except where saturation may
not be deep cold enough to result in ice crystal formation.

That's most likely to occur in east-central wisconsin, though a
consensus of model forecast soundings was that conditions favoring
a loss of ice would only be marginal and periodic. Thus snow
should be the primary precipitation type.

The precipitation should taper off from south to north this
evening as the main shortwave lifts through. Light precipitation
could linger in the far north into early Thursday as a surface
trough hanging back from the departing system keeps low-level
cyclonic flow in that area, but do not anticipate much additional
accumulation with that feature.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
active pattern across the northern united states as the 500mb
pattern will feature southwest flow aloft at the beginning of
the period, then transitions to a zonal flow early next week.

Temperatures at the beginning of the period will be at or
slightly above normal into the weekend, then should be at or
below normal next week.

The main storm system this weekend should come in two pieces.

The first piece will be in the form of light snow or light
freezing rain based on bufkit soundings as models show fairly
strong 850mb warm advection across the state. The precipitation
should start out as light snow across the entire region. Bufkit
soundings indicated that the snow could change over to freezing
rain across central into east-central wisconsin where there is a
more pronounced warm layer.

There will be a lull or break in the precipitation later
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as the 850mb warm
advection shifts east of the state and system approaches from
the southwest. Models impressive with precipitation totals over
an inch across much of the region. The low pressure system is
expected to move from eastern kansas (18z sat) to near chicago
(06z sun) and then into canada during the day Sunday. This track
is very favorable for heavy snow across northern wisconsin. As the
low tracks northeast, it will be intensifying. It appears there
will be a band of 8 to 12 inches across central into far northeast
wisconsin. Snowfall amounts will be problematic across the fox
valley and lakeshore region where precipitation starts as rain or
a wintry mix and then changes over to all snow later Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning. The change over should occur
last at manitowoc. How quick the change over occurs will determine
snowfall amounts in this region. There are still some timing
differences in the change over, although the heavy precipitation
may change it over quicker than expected. The snow will be heavy
at times, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
possible across the entire region. Snow will linger into Sunday
morning, although may need to increase snow chances Sunday
afternoon over the next day or two. Gusty northwest winds are
also expected late Saturday night into Sunday, with gusts to near
40 mph possible across northeast and east-central wisconsin.

Tranquil conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure controls the weather pattern. Next system approaches
from the west Tuesday night, bringing a chance of light snow.

Snow is expected on Wednesday as this system could another 3 to
6 inches to much of the area.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
flying conditions will rapidly deteriorate to ifr and periodic
lifr as snow overspreads the area this morning and continues into
the evening. Some improvement in conditions is expected overnight,
mainly as some breaks develop in the low clouds.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz020-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050-074.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz005-
010>013-018-019-021-022-073.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 51 mi39 min E 24 G 28 28°F 1012.2 hPa (-6.0)26°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 56 mi39 min E 20 G 25 29°F 1012.3 hPa (-6.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
W8
SW7
G10
SW6
G9
S5
G9
S4
SW6
G9
S9
SW7
G10
SW6
G9
W3
G6
NW4
W2
NW3
NW2
G5
NW2
NW2
--
SE15
SE13
G17
SE15
SE13
E17
G21
E19
G23
E21
1 day
ago
N10
G13
N8
G11
N5
G11
N7
N5
G8
NW3
G6
--
W3
NW2
NW3
W3
G6
NW2
G5
W3
NW3
G6
NW1
NW2
NW2
NW5
NW8
NW4
NW4
W4
G7
W7
G10
2 days
ago
NE11
G17
NE14
G18
NE12
G20
NE19
G25
NE18
G24
NE16
G23
NE15
G23
N11
G17
N9
G16
N9
G14
NE17
G28
NE15
G23
NE17
G24
N10
G15
N8
G13
N9
G14
N10
NW10
G14
N10
G15
NW12
G16
NW9
G12
NW9
G13
N6
G9
N9
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Appleton-Outagamie, WI6 mi54 minE 10 G 207.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1010.8 hPa
Wittman Regional Airport, WI13 mi46 minE 157.00 miOvercast29°F23°F78%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ATW (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrSW4SW4SW4S555534CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4NE4E6E6NE6E9E10
G17
E10
G17
E10
G20
1 day agoN6N5N5CalmCalmCalmSW44SW5SW6SW6SW6W6W7W6SW7W6W8W8W5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE11NE12
G20
NE11NE13
G21
NE15
G22
NE14
G22
NE8N15
G19
N11N12NE12
G17
N13
G17
N11N11N11N9N9N10N12N8N10N10N9N9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.